General Storm Thread

[Coast]

Put your storm thoughts and comments in here!

[Nick F]

Morning all,

N-W storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Thunderstorms have been rumbling away this morning across N and W Wales and into NW England along the cold front:

Significant tornado parameter over Wales and Nern/central England early afternoon:

[Coast]

Looking better for some areas today, I'll go and have a peek at what all the others are saying and stick some stuff up in a mo

[Stuart]

well i going to keep my fingers cross for 2day that all i can do:lol:

[Jane Louise]

Good luck all, It certainly looks promising. TORRO now have a tornado watch. Keep safe mateys if anything happens your way:)

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

TORNADO WATCH 2010/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0700GMT on Friday 20th August 2010

Valid from/until: 07:00- 20:00GMT on Friday 20th August 2010 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Wales

Much of England

Northern Scotland

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 65mph; CG lightning; heavy rain

DISCUSSION

Reference TW004 below for main synoptic overview. Short-wave trough is moving towards SW Wales. Strong ascent ahead of this has allowed thunderstorms to develop from the moisture plume. Although these may be slightly elevated some surface based activity is likely. Tornadoes are possible, perhaps strong, along with severe wind gusts as it moved north-east. Further activity may then develop from the shallow moist zone, if spells of sunshine can develop. Again, severe winds and isolated tornadoes are possible.

TORNADO WATCH 2010/004

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 2315GMT on Thursday 19th August 2010

Valid from/until: 23:15- 08:00GMT on Thursday 19th/Friday 20th August 2010 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Eire

N Ireland

S Scotland

Isle of Man

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 65mph; CG lightning; heavy rain

DISCUSSION

Strong upper low is moving NE to the west of the British Isles, with an associated short-wave crossing the watch area. A broad, very moist tropical maritime airmass exists at low levels, behind a warm front, which is currently moving through Scotland. A cold front to the west of Eire/N Ireland will start to move eastwards later tonight, and tend to surge eastwards later. Instability exists in the warm sector, partially aided by mid-level cooling associated with the upper trough. Thunderstorms are occurring already across SW Eire, and further showers and a few thunderstorms are likely overnight. Strong deep layer shear (40-50 knots) should promote cell organisation, perhaps supercells. Low-level shear of 25-30 knots suggests low-level mesocyclones are possible. Tornadoes and damaging winds are possible across the area, and the magnitude of the low-level shear coupled with a very moist boundary layer suggests a small chance of a stronger tornado.

The risk will extend into Scotland through tomorrow morning, and a new watch is likely to be needed tomorrow morning.

[twister2005]

Hi jane, good luck today just one good thunderstorm this year would be fab

[Stuart]

Yes let have a party hope it come off

Thanks Jean

[Radiating Dendrite]

Going to be a tad breezy then

Will be interesting to see how it develops!

[Coast]

Yes let have a party hope it come off

Well you will be there if anyone is Stu!

[peterf]

that system looks like being a direct hit for my location early afternoon.you can almost smell somthing in the air lol.

[Harry]

Oh dear, this is looking rubbish for the SE...never mind, least we can enjoy the moist warm air flow, which is in stark contrast to the chill/very cool air flow of the past fortnight!!

[Sunny Android]

Thunderstorms passes to my North (over South Lancashire) at 08:30BST. Moving East so looking good as forecast for the N. Pennines and Yorkshire

[A.J]

oh poop, its looking even better for the midlands, and I'm going to be away in South Devon for the weekend....All I can hope is that the storm gods smile on me whilst away and give South Devon a storm battering! .....Looks like some weak thunderstorms are moving into south wales, I would expect them to develop during the day.....good luck everybody!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Some heavy rain in NW England heading to the NE, looks like a few sferics in it. Hope the Pennines don't kill it though, already it seems to be losing intensity.

Also no sun here this morning, I would have felt much more confident had it been sunny here.

Still I'll enjoy watching, waiting and hoping

[Harry]

Some heavy rain in NW England heading to the NE, looks like a few sferics in it. Hope the Pennines don't kill it though, already it seems to be losing intensity.

Also no sun here this morning, I would have felt much more confident had it been sunny here.

Still I'll enjoy watching, waiting and hoping

Sod heavy rain, have you seen how rapidly the two main areas of heavy/torrential rain intensified between 0830 and 0900 this morning?

[SteveElbows]

Morning all. To answer Andys question from the previous thread, no I didnt hear any thunder last night, although the rain here was quite impressive for a time. Was quite gusty too, a tall bush in our garden seems to have been uprooted.

Nice to see a fair amount of electrical activity showing up already, though I better not get my hopes up too much.

[peterf]

Some heavy rain in NW England heading to the NE, looks like a few sferics in it. Hope the Pennines don't kill it though, already it seems to be losing intensity.

Also no sun here this morning, I would have felt much more confident had it been sunny here.

Still I'll enjoy watching, waiting and hoping

the pennine shield will strike again lol.

[SteveElbows]

Oh joy, the fairly unreliable met tabular forecasts have got the thunder graphic for Saturday night for me.

[Gordon]

Oh joy, the fairly unreliable met tabular forecasts have got the thunder graphic for Saturday night for me.

I see that as well but put little stock in it as they had the light rain graphic last night and the rain was anything but light

anyway that's 36 hours away and the weather forecasts seem to be changing constantly

[todd1970]

First time ive ever seen the the UK being the most active place in Europe for lightning.

Notice that Estofex has the whole of the UK under a level 1...nothing here so far a few very heavy showers..hoping for something later on.

[Stuart]

But bbc weather haveing none of it with the storms today and 2night

[SteveElbows]

Well the BBC is usually almost identical to the met, and for some reason they dont seem to want to mention storms very much, and are frequently rather late with warnings about this stuff.

Completely agree that the table-based met forecasts arent exactly the best guide to the unfolding reality, they are slow to change them and Im not sure what their methodology for these forecasts is but its often less accurate than their own 'invent' maps.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just had thunder here, no joke!

[SteveElbows]

Just had thunder here, no joke!

Yeah theres quite a lot of activity showing up there on the various online lightning detector maps. Have fun!

[Coast]

South Wales seems to be enjoying some sferics, anybody down there confirm what they are getting?