Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Apr 2012 to Tuesday 1 May 2012:

Generally unsettled and often quite windy conditions are expected to predominate throughout the period. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect all areas at times, with some drier and brighter interludes likely too. The focus of the heaviest or more persistent rain is most likely to be southern and western parts of the UK, although this does not preclude heavier outbreaks elsewhere. Some of the showers are also likely to be wintry in nature over the Scottish mountains. For much of the period, temperatures will be close to or just below average, giving a risk of overnight frost. Towards the end of the month, however, temperatures will perhaps rise above average, especially in southeast England, bringing an increased chance of humid and thundery conditions.

Updated: 1131 on Tue 17 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Terminal Moraine]

You may be forgiven for thinking that I'm writing the Met' Office forecasts now, but it's not the case. I've had no involvement with the latest forecast, other than to weep tears of joy. Wonderful!.

[johnholmes]

You may be forgiven for thinking that I'm writing the Met' Office forecasts now, but it's not the case. I've had no involvement with the latest forecast, other than to weep tears of joy. Wonderful!.

good to know someone is happy with the unsettled theme other than the worst drought regions

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 23 Apr 2012 to Wednesday 2 May 2012:

Generally unsettled and often quite windy conditions are expected to predominate throughout the period. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect all areas at times, with some drier and brighter interludes likely too. The focus of the heaviest or more persistent rain is most likely to be southern and western parts of the UK, although this does not preclude heavier outbreaks elsewhere. Some of the showers are also likely to be wintry in nature over the Scottish mountains. For much of the period, temperatures will be close to or just below average, giving a risk of overnight frost. Towards the end of the month, however, temperatures will perhaps rise above average, especially in southeast England.

Updated: 1130 on Wed 18 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Apr 2012 to Thursday 3 May 2012:

Generally unsettled and often quite windy conditions are expected to predominate throughout the period. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect all areas at times, with some drier and brighter interludes likely too. The focus of the heaviest or more persistent rain is most likely to be southern and western parts of the UK, although this does not preclude heavier outbreaks elsewhere. Some of the showers are also likely to be wintry in nature over the Scottish mountains. For much of the period, temperatures will be close to or just below average, giving a risk of overnight frost. Towards the end of the month, however, temperatures may rise above average, especially in southeast England.

Updated: 1159 on Thu 19 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Apr 2012 to Friday 4 May 2012:

A continuation of the generally unsettled pattern is likely for much of the period. Persistent rain is expected across many areas on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across southern areas, with the best of any brightness across western Scotland. Showers or longer spells of rain are largely expected to continue for the remainder of the period. Showers will be heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder, with southern and eastern parts most prone to longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be close to or just below average although they should recover to near or even above average across southern areas later. Towards the end of the period, there is an increased chance of drier and more settled conditions for some parts but confidence in these details is low.

Updated: 1222 on Fri 20 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 Apr 2012 to Saturday 5 May 2012:

The period will start very unsettled with showers in many areas and a spell of more persistent and heavy rain moving northeast across the country, with perhaps only northern Scotland escaping. The rain will be followed in southern parts by heavy showers. Windy at times with gales possible in the southwest, and temperatures around average. During the weekend it will remain unsettled with more showers or rain, the showers continuing to be often heavy. The south and east may be the wettest, and the northwest may have the least rain. Temperatures around average, perhaps a little higher in the southeast. The rest of the period will probably remain unsettled but with some spells of drier and brighter weather, with average temperatures.

Updated: 1238 on Sat 21 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 27 Apr 2012 to Sunday 6 May 2012:

The period will start unsettled with occasionally strong winds and further showers or longer spells of rain. These will be heavy at times, with a risk of thunder and hail in some of the showers. They may also be wintry weather over some northern hills. Temperatures are likely to remain on the cool side, with the continuing risk of overnight frosts. Into the new week conditions are likely to remain changeable, with further spells of rain for some. However there are likely to be more in the way of drier, more settled interludes than recently. Temperatures are likely to recover to around average, if not slightly above in places by day, although overnight frost remains a possibility.

Updated: 1151 on Sun 22 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/he/he_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 Apr 2012 to Monday 7 May 2012:

The current unsettled spell with showers and longer spells of rain, heavy at times, will continue through this weekend into next week. Conditions may well turn particularly unsettled later this weekend and early next week when some more persistent rain, with brisk winds, is likely to affect at least some parts of the UK, southern and eastern regions most at risk. Meanwhile, over high ground in the north showers will often be wintry. There are then signs that conditions could turn a little less unsettled later next week. Nights will remain chilly with a risk of ground frost in sheltered rural areas. By day temperatures largely on the cool side at first, especially in wet weather, but probably recovering to around or just above average from later next week onwards.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Apr 2012 to Tuesday 8 May 2012:

Rain is likely to affect most parts of the UK for a time on Sunday, with heavy rain possible across England and Wales at first then Scotland and Northern Ireland later. It is also likely to be windy with a risk of gales in southwestern areas. The rather unsettled conditions will probably continue next week, with further showers or longer periods of rain, although there are some signs that the weather may become less unsettled by the start of the second week of May. Nights will remain chilly with a risk of ground frost in sheltered rural areas. Daytime temperatures will be a little cooler than average at first, especially in wet weather, but probably recovering to around or just above average from later next week onwards.

Updated: 1150 on Tue 24 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Apr 2012 to Tuesday 8 May 2012:

Rain is likely to affect most parts of the UK for a time on Sunday, with heavy rain possible across England and Wales at first then Scotland and Northern Ireland later. It is also likely to be windy with a risk of gales in southwestern areas. The rather unsettled conditions will probably continue next week, with further showers or longer periods of rain, although there are some signs that the weather may become less unsettled by the start of the second week of May. Nights will remain chilly with a risk of ground frost in sheltered rural areas. Daytime temperatures will be a little cooler than average at first, especially in wet weather, but probably recovering to around or just above average from later next week onwards.

Updated: 1150 on Tue 24 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

sorry I beating you to it

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Apr 2012 to Wednesday 9 May 2012:

Next week starting generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. Southern, eastern and central parts are likely to see some heavy showers with a risk of thunder. This will initially be coupled with brisk winds for some. From the middle of next week onwards, in very broad terms it will be less unsettled than this week, but still with a chance of showers, some heavy and thundery, over eastern, southern and central parts. Northern and western parts probably faring best, conditions here often drier and brighter. North Sea coastal areas likely to be affected by low cloud and occasional sea fog. Generally warmer than of late, with a reduced chance of frost by night, though it will feel quite chilly in eastern coastal areas when conditions are dull.

Updated: 1257 on Wed 25 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 May 2012 to Thursday 10 May 2012:

Early May will probably see a continuation of generally unsettled and often windy weather, with showers or longer spells of rain. Southern, eastern and central parts are still likely to see some heavy showers with a risk of thunder, but these probably less widespread than recently. Overall, northern and western parts will probably fare best, with conditions here often drier and brighter, but even here there are likely to be further showers and longer spells of rain. North Sea coastal areas likely to be affected by low cloud and occasional sea fog. It should be generally warmer than of late, with a reduced chance of frost by night, though it will feel quite chilly in eastern coastal areas when conditions are dull.

Updated: 1235 on Thu 26 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 May 2012 to Friday 11 May 2012:

Many northern areas staying generally fine through Wednesday and Thursday with some sunshine, especially across the north west. A slow-moving band of rain or showers affecting central parts on Wednesday will drift southwards to bring a threat of thundery showers to the south. Persistent low cloud may plague some eastern coasts. Into the weekend, the best of the conditions remaining across northern parts. To the south, a continued threat of showers or longer spells of rain, possibly heavy and thundery, but also some drier spells here too. Temperatures will generally be a little above average and locally warm in any sunshine, but rather cold near the North Sea coasts. Tending to become more unsettled and cooler across all parts later in the period with rain and showers becoming widespread.

Updated: 1241 on Fri 27 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 May 2012 to Saturday 12 May 2012:

Fine and dry across many northern parts of the UK through Thursday with some sunshine, away from the cloudier east coast. Further south, conditions will be generally cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with some drier and brighter spells. For the remainder of the period, becoming largely unsettled across the whole of the UK. Showers may be heavy and thundery, possibly wintry over higher ground in the north. Becoming windier for many parts, especially across northern areas. Temperatures may be rather warm across some southern areas at first, but will tend to fall throughout the period across all areas, to become largely below average with a risk of frost by night in sheltered inland parts.

Updated: 1213 on Sat 28 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 4 May 2012 to Sunday 13 May 2012:

Fine and dry across many northern parts of the UK on Friday with some sunshine, away from the cloudier east coast. Through Saturday outbreaks of rain and some hill snow will spread south. Largely cloudy further south with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the far south, although with some drier and brighter spells at times. Thereafter, becoming largely unsettled across the whole of the UK. Showers may be heavy, thundery and possibly wintry over higher ground in the north. Becoming windier for many parts, especially across northern areas. Temperatures starting close to average for early May, but are likely to become largely below average with a risk of overnight frost in sheltered inland parts. Possibly becoming less unsettled by mid-may with temperatures recovering, especially in southern Britain.

Updated: 1244 on Sun 29 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[keithlucky]

This is why the Met given up long range weather forecasts http://climaterealis...dex.php?id=9514

Edited April 29, 2012 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

Did n't think they had given up, what makes you think that?

As they state it's all highly experimental and does not promise to be right.

I guess those climate realists could do a better job..well they are members of the PC fan club it seems:

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9461&linkbox=true&position=8

Oh dear more publicity

Edited April 29, 2012 by TonyH

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 May 2012 to Monday 14 May 2012:

Largely dry across northern parts of the UK through the weekend with some bright or sunny spells, but it will be rather cold with overnight frost. There will be wintry showers in places, possibly giving snow accumulations over higher ground. Further south, remaining predominantly unsettled with rain or showers, with a threat of hill snow across Wales on Saturday. Breezy at times and feeling cold in the wind and rain. The remainder of the period looks likely to stay unsettled across the UK. Heavy rain is possible in places, turning wintry across higher ground in the north. Daytime temperatures remaining mostly below normal with the risk of night frosts. Towards the end of the period, southern parts may see more dry and bright periods whilst it remains unsettled further north.

Updated: 1159 on Mon 30 Apr 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Village]

This is why the Met given up long range weather forecasts http://climaterealis...dex.php?id=9514

Yes, quite. I was one of the few who wrote to the Met Office 18 months ago suggesting that they stop trying to make long range seasonal predictions because they were bringing themselves into disrepute. IMO their record on lRF's is close to dissasterous.

They seemed to agree with me because they then made an announcement about a year ago that they were discontinuing their long range forecasts. No explanation was given other than they were goming to concentrate on short term weather and getting that right.

However, On the 23rd March this year they again tried to predict a whole quarter ahead and one week before one of the wettest Aprils on record they predicted that the following three months would be most likely to be drier than average with the driest month most likely to be this month.

I really think that they are just making fools of themselves by simply relying of numerical computer simulations which are not a true representation of the real world. Too much is being based on this without using common sense and real tried and tested forecasting techniques from the past IMO. The same can be said for the terrible climate predictions of ten and twenty years ago.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 May 2012 to Tuesday 15 May 2012:

Through Sunday and Monday, southern parts are likely to stay largely unsettled with outbreaks of rain. There is the risk of rain or showers further north, possibly wintry over higher ground, but generally conditions look likely to be fairly settled with some bright or sunny periods at times. Through the remainder of the period, conditions look likely to stay rather unsettled across southern areas at first, but probably turning rather more settled later with less in the way of rain. Conversely, further north, conditions will tend to become less settled through the period, with increasing spells of rain and hill snow. Temperatures will be largely below the seasonal average across the UK with the risk of overnight frost, but should recover somewhat towards the end of the period.

Updated: 1237 on Tue 1 May 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[shedhead]

I think I understand what they are trying to say, but I'm sure it could have been said a lot more symplistically - talk about using a dozen words when 2 or 3 would do!

[johnholmes]

which post of the 2 above(?) are you referring to shed?

[shedhead]

Was referring to the one pasted by Gavin.