Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ice is still on a 'go slow' , does anyone have access to the earliest date ice max has been called? We know last years was one of the latest (if not latest) ever called so what about the earliest?

After a quick check the earliest max extent I could find, though I may be wrong, is the 16th February 1997, at just under 14,800,000km2

[Gowon]

Here's paper from the National Oceanography Centre.

Arctic climate variation under ancient greenhouse conditions - http://noc.ac.uk/news/arctic-climate-variation-under-ancient-greenhouse-conditions

[Gray-Wolf]

So it wouldn't be exceptional for us to be stuttering to our final figure right now?

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Still no great gains for today and ,as I've pointed out, the tidal setup may be such as to hinder and consolidation/growth over the next 30 days?.

Since 08's final min. I've been asking what would have occured with not 'high' max......maybe this year we will find out?

I know the pack is now a very different beastie than back in 08' as the remnant perennial has now gone (a few chunks here and there but nothing to speak of?) and so the basin is now populated with predominantly young, salty ice (over 50% of it 'seasonal' as it only formed last year and will melt this year?). I would make a stab at there being a lot of open water around by July and so ample opportunity for 'in-situ' melt of the ice that remains.

If this occurs and we have a very 'open' Arctic Ocean by Aug will this mean that we will not have any 'deep cold' forming (due to the ocean not being 'frozen') in early winter and so only a 'limited export' of Arctic modified airs come Nov/Dec?.

When I look at the past 2 years there has been plenty of frozen ocean by November for the deep polar cold to form over (and then be displaced our way) but without the 'lid' on the ocean won't the radiating 'warm' stop the deep cold forming at sea level?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php?action=NA_ARC_NWA_Function&file_prefix=ARC&match_date=20110206&depth=0005&variable_name=hice

If you look at the plots from 8/2/2011 you can see the impacts of ice drift around Wrangel Island near the mouth of Bering. the ice thickens on the side facing into the drift whilst the lee side of the island has the ice plucked away. I've not looked at the 'wind maps' but it looks ,from the ice movement, as though the straits are currently exporting ice?

[oldsnowywizard]

Haven't been on this thread for a couple of months and see the posts are still the same.

There may be early melt in some areas but I guess that always happens. Interesting that gp suggested the polar vortex might continue past it's normal end date ( which should help keep cold conditions in the area it covers.

Roll on summer and let's see what happens ..

[Gray-Wolf]

Haven't been on this thread for a couple of months and see the posts are still the same.

There may be early melt in some areas but I guess that always happens. Interesting that gp suggested the polar vortex might continue past it's normal end date ( which should help keep cold conditions in the area it covers.

Roll on summer and let's see what happens ..

I don't think we'll notice any difference if the central Arctic ocean remains cold during the start of melt season? The thin ice in Baffin/Hudson/Bering will (as ever) be the first ice to feel the spring melt and seeing as it is less than half the normal thickness I'd expect it to give up the ghost quite quickly?

This might mean quite a rapid decline through April/early May? by then the 'normal' melt season synoptics will be in place across the high Arctic (and the N. Pole web cam will be in place?).

Last year the pole camera two went walkabout quite early on due to the floe it was placed on .This year both Cams will be on young ice so it will be interesting to see if either 'takes a dip' come late July or goes on vacation to Fram.

It promises to be quite a dynamic season for melt this year, it may prove to be the 'mask' for all the future melt seasons through our 'warming'. With all the 'old ice' gone from the NW Passage and no thickness in the N.Passage both routes should be navigable by mid Aug (if not before) and the NW Passage may become another graveyard for the thicker Arctic ice piled up along the Northern shore of the Archipelago (SST's in the Deep channel got quite high last year so any repeat will lead to in-situ melt of the 'thick ice' drifting into it from the channels connecting the Archipelago to the Arctic ocean).

Edited February 14, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Yorkshiresnows]

Haven't been on this thread for a couple of months and see the posts are still the same.

There may be early melt in some areas but I guess that always happens. Interesting that gp suggested the polar vortex might continue past it's normal end date ( which should help keep cold conditions in the area it covers.

Roll on summer and let's see what happens ..

Yes, quite. Its no wonder Carinthian stopped posting. Thousands of doom laden posts talking mainly nonsence, with a few gems from serious folks lost amongst the noise.

Given we are in La Nina for some considerable time, this would at least suggest more favourable summer conditions for ice retention.

As stated many times previously and as forecast by Joe laminate floori and Roy Spencer, world temps are on the way down (see Roy Spencers blog site and the Aqua satellite data) - see below

The fact that the PDO is now firmly negative and La Nina's set to dominate over El Nino, we should see a redistribution of the 'heat' away from the Arctic over the next cycle.

Time will tell, but plenty to be looking at over the next few years.

Some interesting banter over on Accu-weather's site. Here's the latest from Mr laminate floori himself:

"The dropping of the Pacific ocean tropical temperatures is the equal of turning down the thermostat in the house. The cold PDO does that in a longer term sense, but the sudden collapse of the warmth in the equatorial Pacific has a lag effect on global temperatures and you can plainly see that occurring now. When one considers the amount of heat in energy in the oceans, and how it is stacked into the tropical oceans, one sees why the co2 argument is so far fetched. For even in using the co2 feedback argument in the atmosphere it is miniscule, but if you allow the ocean to be part of the system, the amount of energy contributed by co2 is so small it cant be measured. The idea that the atmosphere would drive the ocean is like asking a 125 lb wrestler to wrestle a heavyweight. As I continue to dive into this, and watch the weather behave in the larger sense according to logic ( if not even faster than I thought) any allowance for the co2 argument I have painfully tried to be open minded about fades away.

Consider how the brutal winters of the late 70s occurred. 30 years of cold PDO, 20 years of cold AMO a monster La Nina, then the the reversal to an el nino. Now think... what is going on with cold PDO cold amo, and la nina.. globally? Well pressures have to be higher than normal in the tropical oceans and lower than normal over areas favored for cold. This is why the winters are so warm in eastern N America in La Ninas, even with a cold AMO. I believe this winter had something to do with the same set up that lead to the winters in 1916-1918, low solar previous major high latitude volcano. But now think folks, what happens when the tropical pacific warmed the way it did with the ninos of the late 70s, after all this run up.

Pressures low in the tropical Pacific correct? The air warms in the tropical pacific correct. but the globe, and the pattern has been stacked for colder for 20 to 30 years and then given an extra injection by the La Nina. So one is starting from a large scale perspective of cold. If the pressures are going to suddenly fall in the tropical Pacific, what happens elsewhere, where they were lower?

They rise in the means. What happens to the AO..positive in La ninas because of the tendency of high pressure in the tropical Pacific, lower further north ( you see it finally taking over since mid Jan) . They reverse.

What happens to the unsuspecting people of eastern North America?

Katie can bar the door, but the cold is coming anyway.

Europe is still up in the air, until the AMO shifts, but that is coming in the coming decades. But the fact is this. YOU ARE THE DENIER if you dont think the oceans play an enormous role! And if you think that trace amounts of co2 in the atmosphere will push around the entire ocean-atmospheric system.. you are delusional. Seriously. I mean I am bending over backwards to say, okay lets watch this global temp the next 20-30 years, but if you dont see in the end the oceans are the main control ( if one does not start with the true source, the sun) then you really, that is almost incomprehensible.

Now the counter argument is that the oceans are warming because of the air above. Well then let me ask you this. How is the warming you think is occurring CANT EVEN FORCE THE COOLING OF THE STRATOSPHERE WHICH IS THE REAL SMOKING GUN?! A true positive feedback and tropospheric warming should be forcing a contraction of the stratosphere and major cooling. Nothing, nada, zilch. And the density considerations of the stratosphere are next to nothing compared to the oceans. So let me get this straight... you want to warm the oceans via the warmer troposphere above it, in other words have something with less energy push something around with much more, yet you cant even get the response first in what it should obviously be able to do?

So what is the bottom line. We are setting ourselves up for some harsh winters in N america. Europe you are still a dice shoot, till the AMO turns cold, then look out. If this is all we can get out of the last 20-30 years with the deck stacked for warming, then we may be in major trouble given the globe today vs the 70s. Of course given the state of the world, today, its a moot point. People like me though believe that we should try to solve some problems that we can see, than these other ones, especially since the answer may be opposite. I got to thinking about the enso temp swings when one of the more brilliant meteorologists I have ever met, and a good friend of mine ( I will protect him and not mention his name) was talking to me about what was going to happen when the nino of 07-08 came off. I had just put out the forecast for the warm eastern winter, but after I researched his position I was ready for 08-09 and especially 09-10! The other parts of my triple crown of cooling may have helped out this year, but notice that the solar fanatics and volcanic vigilante's only prevailed for a time. That is not to say they dont have their points, but they may grow larger with time. But consider this. Those 2 other wild cards factored in are why I am saying the bounceback winters from the nina, most like 12-13,13-14,14-15 could get the late 70s a run for their money, in which case the US economy may be up a creek without a paddle given winters similar to the late 70s with the economic demands of today would be a huge problem. Keep in mind, the nation was in an economic lull anyway then, but assuming we are going to go forward ( a bold assumption) then the weather may put that to rest. And when one looks at the globe as a whole, you can see my fear.. assuming you are rational. But what happens if we throw in the other 2 legs of the triple crown of cooling and we are 20-30 years down the road. You wonder why there are people worried about a mini ice age. Makes more sense to me than a trace gas in the atmosphere being able to push around the entire ocean atmosphere system. Nature will do what nature will do, and in the end, that may be the only answer that will come out of all this"

You can't beat a bit of controversial argument !!!

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Y.S.!

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

10 February 2011

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.2.14.2011.gif

Areas 1 and 2 look quite warm already?

As for the PDO;

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

as you see we await Jan /Feb index but we have trailed down since the heady days of 08'/09' with their 1.7's and 1.65's even giving positive numbers for a lot of 2010 (and I though Nino's were 'moderated' by PDO-ve....maybe the tail wagged the dog in this instance???)

As it is (and this is not controversial really) I believe we have seen our PDO-ve 'max out' through the noughties and that we will now see it fade back into neutral territory over the next 5 years.

From looking at past 'matches' I'd say that we are now due a rapid change from Nina' to Nino' ( as in57', 64' and 72') and so would not be surprised to see Nino patterns emerge as early as Nov/Dec 2011 (after the neutral of July/Aug/Sept/Oct).

The only other thing being paraded as a 'cold driver' appears to be solar output and our X 2.2 (biggest solar 'burst' in over 4 years) tells us that the solar min is well and truly over (so the sun is also on the rapid ramp up to solar max in 2012/13?).

Obviously I feel all these points are moot as the Arctic is now a very different beastie to the Arctic of the last major PDO-ve phase (just check the volume of ice there these days now that the Paleocrystic has gone).

With such a late freeze to many of the high arctic sea areas we are barely scraping 2m thickness for swathes of the basin as this 'topaz' image of Feb 12th shows

compare that to as little as 3 years ago

and you can see the problem? (remember we'd already lost most of the Paleocrystic from 02' to 07' so even 09' is just a shadow of the former Arctic) The truly perennial ice from the north of the Canadian archipelago /N.Greenland/S. Beaufort sea has now gone leaving a 'seasonal pack in waiting. We know that ice sub 2m will melt out over a 'normal' arctic summer (no perfect storm required) so how much of the pack is there to resist a normal summer melt season?

Mr L.Floori is having his last "yahoo" I fear as his colours are now firmly (and publicly) 'pinned' on 'natural drivers' that are now measurably being shown to be being influenced by "External Factors" (for the past 32yrs for PDO and so ,by default AMO as the paper I posted in the 'news thread' explains).

We all see how the AO is now being 'driven' by the lack of sea ice come the period that used to be 'early winter re-freeze' .

Anyhow. I digress.

We have moved from a pack that comprised (at winters end) of over 60% perennial ice (of 3m+) and less than 40% 'seasonal' ice (2m and less) to a pack (at winters end) with 90% of the pack showing the characteristics of 'seasonal ice' (2m and less).

I certainly do not want the type of winter the lack of sea ice in Barents/Kara has driven the past 2 years so would love to be either dead wrong, and those sea areas remain iced and re-freeze in Oct, or dead right and the seasonal pack means that we have a lot of open water across the basin so that no deep cold can form anywhere in the basin through Oct/Nov due to the 'shedding' of the heat that the open water needs to do before freeze can occur (and so no Arctic 'plunges' of any ferocity can form).

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't really get people having a problem with regular posters here sticking by their guns and expressing their POV, it's an internet forum, what exactly are they expecting here? Complete agreement and a pat on the back for forming an opinion? If you don't agree with certain posts, rather than whining about them, counter it with some evidence or just ignore them!

I have to say, I lost a lot of repect for Joe B after his conspiracy nonsense about the NSIDC and his subsequent back down.

Anyway, we're currently the 2nd lowest extent on record with just 2005 lower.

Today we have a storm moving into the Bering strait which will bring strong southerly winds and milder air. We then get a repeat of this 2 days later, and again a few days after that, so we should expect to see ice extent here drop over the coming days.

Over the sea of Okhotsk, conditions remain favourable for growth with very cold air and light winds, though this has been the case much of the time since xmas and it still is moving further from average and is behind last year...

Across Barents sea, despite cool uppers and light winds, surface temps continue well above normal thanks the the Scandi high sending a mild southwesterly flow over the area, with no sign of change in the near to medium term.

Around the Baffin/Newfoundland seas the cold air in place at the moment gradually retreats back north during the week no strong growth expected there.

Here are the charts

[jethro]

Absolutely agree with your comment above BFTV - if you don't agree with what's being said, counter it with science which supports your view. If you don't like the doom, find something with more cheer in the science literature.

Regarding Carinthian...his thread on Arctic ice was in the weather section of the forum, it drove him nuts when that thread was diluted with climate change stuff, the thread was designed to register and inform on ice conditions, not debate the hows and whys of change. Carinthian rarely got involved in climate change debate in here (not his particular interest), it's not that he's stopped posting here, he never really started. The thread in this section was to debate the impact of climate change on the Arctic, Greywolf took the lead in this section (agree or disagree with his views, you can't fault him on long term interest and knowledge).

[Gray-Wolf]

Thank you very much for the kind words j'. It seems a long while ago (before the 'new' Enviro section) that we decamped here to debate whether we were seeing merely 'natural cyclical variation' in ice levels or whether we we witnessing something else.

We do not seem to be any closer to sorting any kind of consensus out but the Arctic itself does seem hell bent on going it's own way regardless of what we may (or may not) think.

As we seemingly grow closer to the 'seasonal pack' we do seem to have moved away from 'cyclical variation' argument (don't hear much of the 30's and 40's these days) to whether or not a 'seasonal pack' is 'unprecedented' since the end of the last ice age so that's some kind of progress?

As for talk of 'doom' I don't buy it (probably because I'm so often accused of 'mongering' it).

We are witnessing change and trying to figure where that change leads us. We cannot 'moderate' what the facts speak of to us (as individuals) and relating that is not (I'm sure) anyones attempt to put folks on a 'downer'...just witnessing what we see and asking whether our view reflects the facts or, in fact, whether there is another way of 'seeing' the info?

If you'd have asked me 25yrs ago (when I was 23) whether I thought it reasonable for us to find ourselves at the point 'I understand' us to be at today I'd have probably said "no"......but then cautioned that we could indeed end up losing our summer ice if we warmed the world enough (and by much more than we actually have!).I'd have probably told you that by the 22nd century we would be seeing changes that were unmistakably highlighting the end of perennial ice and the beginning of the seasonal pack!!!

From where I sit I see us very close to the 'end game' of a fully seasonal pack. Are we not in some way privileged to be sat watching such a monumental change in real time from the comforts of our own computer chairs?

Edited February 15, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Thank you very much for the kind words j'. It seems a long while ago (before the 'new' Enviro section) that we decamped here to debate whether we were seeing merely 'natural cyclical variation' in ice levels or whether we we witnessing something else.

You're welcome Ian, credit where credit's due.

I often question your conclusions and I doubt we'll ever agree on this subject but I never doubt your level of knowledge on the Arctic nor your commitment.

Natural variation or something else? A bit of both. As ever, my interest is in the percentage attributable to both.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree that it had to be both but were used to the 'normal' 60-80yr variation in sea ice extents and we're struggling to find any evidence (maybe 5,000yrs ago?) where we had a retreat of such a scale? The other thing being that when we hit the 'cold phase' again will it be unable to roll back the extra changes against the backdrop of a 'warming world'?

Past ice level 'fluctuations' did not have this element to and ,as ever, the devils in the detail. I'm sure we'll continue to see fluctuations in winter and summer sea ice levels but if temps are being 'artificially supported' (with many hundreds of years 'in the pipeline') then I can only envisage a very 'un-natural' affair of low ice even through the natural cooler cycle?

If we are already seeing low ice levels affecting N.Hemisphere circulation then what 'changes' might we see once this phenomena has had enough time to settle back down into the 'new' patterns?

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Y.S.!

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS

10 February 2011

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011

As for the PDO;

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

as you see we await Jan /Feb index but we have trailed down since the heady days of 08'/09' with their 1.7's and 1.65's even giving positive numbers for a lot of 2010 (and I though Nino's were 'moderated' by PDO-ve....maybe the tail wagged the dog in this instance???)

As it is (and this is not controversial really) I believe we have seen our PDO-ve 'max out' through the noughties and that we will now see it fade back into neutral territory over the next 5 years.

From looking at past 'matches' I'd say that we are now due a rapid change from Nina' to Nino' ( as in57', 64' and 72') and so would not be surprised to see Nino patterns emerge as early as Nov/Dec 2011 (after the neutral of July/Aug/Sept/Oct).

The only other thing being paraded as a 'cold driver' appears to be solar output and our X 2.2 (biggest solar 'burst' in over 4 years) tells us that the solar min is well and truly over (so the sun is also on the rapid ramp up to solar max in 2012/13?).

Obviously I feel all these points are moot as the Arctic is now a very different beastie to the Arctic of the last major PDO-ve phase (just check the volume of ice there these days now that the Paleocrystic has gone).

With such a late freeze to many of the high arctic sea areas we are barely scraping 2m thickness for swathes of the basin as this 'topaz' image of Feb 12th shows

compare that to as little as 3 years ago

and you can see the problem? (remember we'd already lost most of the Paleocrystic from 02' to 07' so even 09' is just a shadow of the former Arctic) The truly perennial ice from the north of the Canadian archipelago /N.Greenland/S. Beaufort sea has now gone leaving a 'seasonal pack in waiting. We know that ice sub 2m will melt out over a 'normal' arctic summer (no perfect storm required) so how much of the pack is there to resist a normal summer melt season?

Mr L.Floori is having his last "yahoo" I fear as his colours are now firmly (and publicly) 'pinned' on 'natural drivers' that are now measurably being shown to be being influenced by "External Factors" (for the past 32yrs for PDO and so ,by default AMO as the paper I posted in the 'news thread' explains).

We all see how the AO is now being 'driven' by the lack of sea ice come the period that used to be 'early winter re-freeze' .

Anyhow. I digress.

We have moved from a pack that comprised (at winters end) of over 60% perennial ice (of 3m+) and less than 40% 'seasonal' ice (2m and less) to a pack (at winters end) with 90% of the pack showing the characteristics of 'seasonal ice' (2m and less).

I certainly do not want the type of winter the lack of sea ice in Barents/Kara has driven the past 2 years so would love to be either dead wrong, and those sea areas remain iced and re-freeze in Oct, or dead right and the seasonal pack means that we have a lot of open water across the basin so that no deep cold can form anywhere in the basin through Oct/Nov due to the 'shedding' of the heat that the open water needs to do before freeze can occur (and so no Arctic 'plunges' of any ferocity can form).

Hi G.W

Well, lets take a look at the current situation in regards to La Nina:

Small rise in temps, but still looking a strong event.

And then the current ensemble forecast:

I think that its fair to say, that just about anything could happen ..... though the mean would favour keeping La Nina conditions intact !!!

As for the PDO maxing out. Well I think thats hopecasting old bean. So far, since 2007, the pattern has set itself nicely (El-Nino collapsing to potent La Nina). Sure there may be smaller El Nino spikes to come, but La Nina will be king for the next 30 year period (if the PDO phase is correctlt negative). .......... and that means a cooling phase is underway.

As for the solar activity comment .... well of course the sun will show some activity, but it is the size (potentcy) of the maximums as well as the minimums that count. So far the sun has been very quiet. Time will tell if this is to continue, but a short burst of activity now means nothing.

So far Joe laminate floori has been spot on with his global forecasts, and I can see no reason to see why he will be wrong with this year, .......but as ever, time will tell.

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

global ocean temps seem to be ignoring any 'big' Nina though?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/1

and even the skeptik's are singing from my hymn sheet???? (that's "Skeptic" not denier dressed as Skeptik........LOL)

http://www.science20.com/skeptical_skeptic/blog/big_arctic_ice_thaw_coming_summer-76150

can you get a skeptical skeptik?

[Gray-Wolf]

We're at the hieght of the "fragmentation event" that the full moon tides bring with them, does't seem to have much of an impact though?

If we see 2 weeks of slow/no gains then I'd be ready to call 'max' in early March and then the first rapid declines in the week after the full moon on the 19th?

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're at the hieght of the "fragmentation event" that the full moon tides bring with them, does't seem to have much of an impact though?

If we see 2 weeks of slow/no gains then I'd be ready to call 'max' in early March and then the first rapid declines in the week after the full moon on the 19th?

What kind of impact we're you expecting from the full moon GW?

[Gray-Wolf]

What kind of impact we're you expecting from the full moon GW?

it's more the next Full moon BFTV. When the timing is right I'm sure that the 'spring tide' pulls the ice up to the point of it snapping and fragmenting. this year i think we'll already be into natural 'breakup' by the March 19th so we won't see much of a 'spike' in 'growth'? Some years the pack is still 'solid' and the tide helps crack it up allowing the peripheral ice to drift off (giving the impression of 'growth' as it still has the 15% or more cover). Early spring temps then melt out the 'drift' ice that headed south leading to a fall in 'extent' .

If you check the IJIS plots and compare them to the 'full moon (4 days before and then beyond it)

http://stardate.org/nightsky/moon

you'll see a 'correlation' in the final 'spurt' of growth?

With the pack now very thin we may see a much bigger impact across the high Arctic with leads opening up? I use ;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

to see how 'disrupted' the pack looks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

it's more the next Full moon BFTV. When the timing is right I'm sure that the 'spring tide' pulls the ice up to the point of it snapping and fragmenting. this year i think we'll already be into natural 'breakup' by the March 19th so we won't see much of a 'spike' in 'growth'? Some years the pack is still 'solid' and the tide helps crack it up allowing the peripheral ice to drift off (giving the impression of 'growth' as it still has the 15% or more cover). Early spring temps then melt out the 'drift' ice that headed south leading to a fall in 'extent' .

If you check the IJIS plots and compare them to the 'full moon (4 days before and then beyond it)

http://stardate.org/nightsky/moon

you'll see a 'correlation' in the final 'spurt' of growth?

With the pack now very thin we may see a much bigger impact across the high Arctic with leads opening up? I use ;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

to see how 'disrupted' the pack looks.

There has been a fairly impressive growth spurt across the sea of Okhotsk since the 12th, so perhaps that's part of it? Conditions have been very cold there for a few weeks now and that surge in growth kinda came out of nowhere. Unfortunately I can see any satellite images of the area so can't be sure.

I suppose the figure we should be watching now is the 2006 max extent at 13,782,344, which I think is the lowest on record. Plenty of time to go well beyond that, but as ever I guess it's just a case of wait and see.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011050/crefl1_143.A2011050010500-2011050011000.250m.jpg

If you press your mouse wheel you can then 'fly' around the image.

today's Okhotsk image.

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011050/crefl1_143.A2011050010500-2011050011000.250m.jpg

If you press your mouse wheel you can then 'fly' around the image.

today's Okhotsk image.

Cheers for that. Forgot about the realtime images somehow!

Still a little difficult to get images to compare well, but it does look as though only some of the gains there have been from fractured drifting ice, the mojority looks like refreeze to me.

[Gray-Wolf]

Cheers for that. Forgot about the real time images somehow!

Still a little difficult to get images to compare well, but it does look as though only some of the gains there have been from fractured drifting ice, the majority looks like refreeze to me.

It's good that we're getting enough light to see the peripheral pack now? Another 2 weeks and we'll be in the Basin? Hudson looks a mess.

Keep an eye on the milky 'fractal' patterns where ice meets ocean....melt in progress.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Pity about the lack of update from the IJIS site, but on CT we're still holding at just over 1 million km2 below average, so I presume the slow increase continues.

On a slightly different note, is that a very large algal bloom spreading from the Greenland sea to Barents on the last few modis Arctic mosaic images?

Towards the bottom of both images...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2011050.terra.4km

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2011051.terra.4km

Edited February 21, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS has finally updated, and it looks like, on todays first update, we're down to 13,596,000km2. So a very small drop from where we were 4 days ago. We're still above 2005 and 2006. Baring some large drops, we should stay above 2006 until at least March, but 2005 experienced a something of a growth spurt around this time and so it's unlikely we'll stay ahead for more than a day or 2.

Over the medium term, things don't look great for ice growth. The main body of cold looks set to go south over North America with milder air pushing into the Bering strait, Barents and Kara sea, with low pressure centered over Svalbard, pulling ice with down through Fram.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Should be interesting to see how the ice holds up over the weekend and early next week as mild air and southerly winds arrive at both the Bering/Chukchi seas and Barents/Kara seas. I fear we may see a fairly hefty loss, but I could be wrong. The modis images should make for some fascinating viewing!