Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

With Nina 'peaking' and the possibility of a 'strong Nino/High solar' for 2012 we have to wonder where we will find ourselves over the next 18months?

The earlier part of your post was interesting and informative, why spoil it with what is supposition? There is NO high Solar activity in the pipeline, just look at what (even) NASA are predicting, a Max of about 90, less than half the previous cycle. And wher eis your evidence for a Strong Nino? I'll grant a Nino is possible, but so is a Nina, at this stage, unless you have access to some special forecast we mere mortals do not, no one knows what the Pacific will throw next year

[Gray-Wolf]

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page:Popular_Science_Monthly_Volume_35.djvu/701

"But there is another and more dangerous ice than floe ice, as it takes many years for its formation. It is met with in isolated floes, but rarely if ever in pack below Smith's Sound, and the Scotch whalers seldom encounter it. Ships have been nipped hundreds of times in floe ice and escaped, but few if any have ever freed themselves from the fierce grasp of the ancient ice of the arctic, called by Nares floe-berg or Paleocrystic ice. This bears evidence of great age, the part above water being from fifteen to forty-five feet in thickness, which would make its depth from one hundred and thirty-five to four hundred and five feet ; the stout- est-built ship that ever put to sea would be crushed into match- sticks by the pressure of two such floes upon her sides. This ice forms the northern limit of the cruising-grounds of the American whalers north of Alaska. Some years it moves to the southward and closes up on them ; again, it recedes, disclosing more of the mystery of the farther north. Scattered here and there through it are yohjnias, or lakes of ice, of one year's growth, enclosed by heavy floes arched and keyed together.Paleocrystic ice is old pack ice built up by successive deposits of snow during a long period of time, thus giving it an appear- ance of stratification. There is an alternation of soft white and hard blue ice, representing, respectively, compressed snow and water formed during the sunshine by thaws, and frozen at night or when cloudy. (It is a remarkable fact that snow will melt and seep through floe ice in sunlight though the thermometer may record far below the freezing-point.) Eventually, during the long summer day, the floe is left bare and dry, but soft and porous, unless so far north that the snow-storms continue all the year round. Over some strata are layers of atmospheric dust, such as Nordenskiold found on the Greenland glaciers ; also the gradual decrease of the thickness of the layers — due to pressure and in- crease of blue ice — because of greater infiltration, as the lower part of the berg is approached, make certain the progressive nature of the formation."

Anyone wanting to read about the 'old Arctic' might take a peek at the above publication? I've linked to it so as to show why I abandoned 'perennial ice' in favour of 'Paleocrystic'. The description of such ice (above) is all we have left of this ice type. I used to call it the 'office block' sized ice and , as the article highlights , it used to be very BIG ice pushing down many hundreds of feet into the ocean below.

The 'mixing out' of the surface of the Halocline means that ice can no longer become as deep as it now is pushed into the 'warm,salty, melt zone that now sits below the shallow layer of halocline that forms below the sea ice.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Created a graph of Northern Hemisphere sea ice from 1979 to present. Used the IJIS data and data from here ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/seaice/polar-stereo/

The years from 2003-2007 overlapped so I was able to get the average difference as a percentage from them and apply it back to the previous years.

I know Jackone has similar graphs in his posts, but I hadn't seen one with all the years so here ya go!

[sunny starry skies]

Created a graph of Northern Hemisphere sea ice from 1979 to present. Used the IJIS data and data from here ftp://sidads.colorad...e/polar-stereo/

The years from 2003-2007 overlapped so I was able to get the average difference as a percentage from them and apply it back to the previous years.

I know Jackone has similar graphs in his posts, but I hadn't seen one with all the years so here ya go!

Excellent graph BFTV - a useful resource for those interested in seeing in how much reduced the sea ice is throughout the year, even since the 1980s and 1990s. All the recent curves trace among the lowest curves on the plot, except for rare excursions to 'normality', usually crowed about among skeptical commentators. The trend in minima is particularly striking - we can only dream of a 7M sq km minimum now. Might be interesting to see the chart with the last 5 years highlighted?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Excellent graph BFTV - a useful resource for those interested in seeing in how much reduced the sea ice is throughout the year, even since the 1980s and 1990s. All the recent curves trace among the lowest curves on the plot, except for rare excursions to 'normality', usually crowed about among skeptical commentators. The trend in minima is particularly striking - we can only dream of a 7M sq km minimum now. Might be interesting to see the chart with the last 5 years highlighted?

Here ya go sss, it's a jpeg image too so the colours should be more clear than the last one. Using open office so have to use screen shots!

[Gray-Wolf]

As the graph shows the years after the majority of the Paleocrystic 'left' are the ones that are now forming the 'bottom cluster' of lines.

With a lot of older ice lost over the start of winter and the late re-freeze in some areas has left me with the opinion that a lot of 11' will end up being the 'lowest' on record.

Throw in the 'wrong timing' of Di-pole over summer and we will be in uncharted 'water' before we know it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

An increase of just 2,000km2 at the first update today. The concentration maps show some small gains around Hudson and Baffin seas as well as the Bering sea, but another large loss in the Barents sea.

Looking ahead a few days

It looks like some colder air will arrive over parts of the Bering sea, combined with southerly winds through the Bering strait, this should increase the extent in the area quite substantially though both refreeze and ice exiting the basin though the Bering strait.

Towards the Barents and Kara sea, while uppers remain quite cool, southerly winds are still persisting which will drag milder surface air off the seas and push the ice further into the basin, as has been happening the last few days. This may, in turn, get dragged into the Fram express which has still been working away recently.

Colder air in the Baffin/Newfoundland sea has yet to really impact the ice extent there, but hopefully this will change soon as more cold air arrives in the medium term.

These 2 images show how we've been gradually moving towards a more neutral or positive AO recently (and NAO).

[knocker]

New melt record for Greenland icesheet.

New research shows that 2010 set new records for the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, expected to be a major contributor to projected sea level rises in coming decades.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110121144011.htm

The full paper can be found here.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/1/014005/pdf/1748-9326_6_1_014005.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another quick graph showing the decadal averages for the northern hemisphere.

Clearly an accelerating decline from the 80s.

I'd say that those expecting a recovery in ice extent this decade would do better to hope for a levelling off for the next decade and an increase perhaps in the 20s

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the noughties traces out the final phase of ice loss throughout the basin. The failure of the ice bridges/arches has mean a rapid degradation in ice type with a 'new' function for the AO-ve. In our recent history AO-ve has been instrumental in flushing ice from the basin. In my Youth AO-ve used to keep ice in the basin the only difference being that the 'exits' from the Arctic are now open all year around.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One significant aspect of that graph is the increased variability in the ice minimum- the spread from 2005-2010 has been almost as large as the spread from 1979-2004, perhaps suggesting that the Arctic sea ice is more vulnerable to the impacts of natural year-on-year variability in atmospheric circulation during the June-September period. This is consistent with the reliance on ice that formed in recent years as compared to the very long-standing ice that prevailed across most of the "minimum extent" area during 1979-2004. Temperatures in the Arctic did not increase substantially until around 2002 but they have certainly skyrocketed since then and the ice extent has responded since around 2005. Thus we have to hope that we don't see any further rises in the next couple of decades, in which case the minimum sea ice extent could fluctuate quite a bit within the 2005-2010 range, but the trend is definitely towards a smaller and less reliable ice pack.

Re. the Greenland ice sheet, I maintain a view that this is a far bigger problem than the reducing sea ice extent- recent studies suggest that a "tipping point" is far more likely to exist for the Greenland ice sheet than for the polar sea ice, and as Weather Ship mentions above there is a high risk of it contributing heavily to sea level rises.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd tend to agree that the 'new Arctic' will have ice mins below 05' for the foreseeable future TWS. If we are looking for the new 'highest' line I reckon 06' may well fit the bill?

As for Greenland we cannot forget that sea areas that loose their ice impact the land beyond up 1,500km inland. If the recent 'melt' in the north of Greenland is looked at in isolation you'll find it occuring when sea ice levels to the north were at their lowest? Last year saw the majority of grounded ice/bay ice (on the North shore of Greenland) melt out/get ripped away by ice flowing into Fram. This year the ice there will melt out sooner and so temps 'inland' will rise earlier. Whether this will offset it being a cooler globe this year is hard to judge but I suspect more 'record melt' stats for the northern half of Greenland come October.

I know what you are saying about the threat of a partial melt of the ice sheet brings but it would not occur without the sea ice going first. Even back in my 'Beeb' days I was banging on about the 'micro climate' that the north shore of Greenland enjoyed due to the height of the land to it's south (anyone watching the 'frost' left in the shadows this winter will understand what I mean!) and the ice sheets influence.

We have arrived at a point where all of the thick and grounded ice has now gone far ,far sooner than I ever imagined. As such the impacts on the ice sheet behind must also occur a lot faster than I ever imagined (which must be a worry for the rest of you? LOL).

EDIT: I'd also caution the use of the 08' /09' ice min figures as they must have an element of 'collapse and spread' in them which is not 'ice retention' but ice collapse?

If this year shadows , or falls lower than, 2010's min then I'll be even more confident of that (seeing as there is no ice left to 'collapse and spread' any more).

In my own mind I think 07' and 2010 are the area we might find our 'average' in but would personally expect 07' or below to be this years min'. if we have another poor year for ice retention (like 07') then we will all be as shocked as we were in sept 07' come sept 2011!

Edited January 24, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

As I'd mentioned a few days ago, it looks like the ice extent is starting to increase quite a lot in the Bering sea, with ice being pushed out from the Bering strait. This looks like continuing for a few days so more before milder air and more westerly winds move in.

Over the Barents sea, it looks like a large depression is going to move in from the Greenland sea, intensify, and slowly move from the Barents sea across to Kara resulting in stronger southerly winds west of Novaya Zemlya and northerlies though Fram.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ijis.iarc...=2011&m=01&d=23

That said BFTV Ungava Bay and Hudson Strait underwent some melt on the 23rd as a L.P. passed through (click back a day on the above link then 'blink 'forward).

If the ice is so easily disrupted then we do not need the L.P.'s you're forecasting in the Basin!!!

EDIT; Just been looking at the C.T. plots BFTV;

http://arctic.atmos....m.region.1.html

and there are a few areas , including Bering, that do need to put on a bit of weight!!! I hadn't realised Barents had taken such a nose dive recently, was this 'ship out' or melt do we know?

EDIT ,EDIT: Looks like 'compresion from the L.P. ramming ice towards Svalbard?

http://www.woksat.info/etcta23/ta23-1110-a-apt-e.html

Edited January 24, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.ijis.iarc...=2011&m=01&d=23

That said BFTV Ungava Bay and Hudson Strait underwent some melt on the 23rd as a L.P. passed through (click back a day on the above link then 'blink 'forward).

If the ice is so easily disrupted then we do not need the L.P.'s you're forecasting in the Basin!!!

Yeah, was a bit surprised to see how much was lost from that. Though the ice only formed there a matter of days ago so I guess it's as weak as it's going to be.

EDIT; Just been looking at the C.T. plots BFTV;

http://arctic.atmos....m.region.1.html

and there are a few areas , including Bering, that do need to put on a bit of weight!!! I hadn't realised Barents had taken such a nose dive recently, was this 'ship out' or melt do we know?

EDIT ,EDIT: Looks like 'compresion from the L.P. ramming ice towards Svalbard?

http://www.woksat.info/etcta23/ta23-1110-a-apt-e.html

I'd agree with with that. Southerly winds have been in place there for a few days now pushing the ice towrds the NP and Svalbard. Though that has mostly been light to moderate winds. This storm is really going to test the packs strength!

Using that "blink" method, you can see how much the extent has increase in Bering (ice drifting?) and, in particular, the sea of Okhotsk, which looks like staying very cold for the foreseeable future

[Gray-Wolf]

Using that "blink" method, you can see how much the extent has increase in Bering (ice drifting?) and, in particular, the sea of Okhotsk, which looks like staying very cold for the foreseeable future

I can't ? and I've been back to the 10th?

If anything I see a brief melt along the coast in Okhotsk and a small patch of 'the straight' itself fill in but not a lot else?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I can't ? and I've been back to the 10th?

If anything I see a brief melt along the coast in Okhotsk and a small patch of 'the straight' itself fill in but not a lot else?

I just mean between the 22nd and 23rd. The ice in Bering spreads south east and in Okhotsk there's a more general increase.

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup , see it , just me being blind!

[PersianPaladin]

70 Trillion cubic feet of New Arctic Ice

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/weather-preparedness/13-billion-cubic-feet-of-new-arctic-ice/

[songster]

PIPS 2.0 is not validated for ice thickness, especially across the centre of the pack. It's used for forecasting the position of the ice *edge* for shipping purposes. For volume estimates, the one to use is PIOMAS, here.

http://psc.apl.washi...e/IceVolume.php

Edit to add: another pubic product is TOPAZ, here (choose variable "hice" in the Arctic dropdown section).

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php

Edited January 27, 2011 by songster

[BornFromTheVoid]

Northern hemisphere ice extent has breached the 13 million mark, which is good to see. A small chance of leap frogging both 2010 and 2005 at the update also, which would put us back into the mid pack (going by the last 8 years).

Those storms that were projected to move through Barents have ended up much weaker than anticipated and so the gains in Hudson, Greenland sea and the sea of Okhotsk have really been boosting the extent without anything to cancel it out.

Looking ahead to t96

It seems like a similar situation to now, lows attempting to push up into Barents fizzling out with very cold air remaining over the Greenland sea and around the sea of Okhotsk. The failure of the lows to make inroads into the Barents and Kara seas allows cold air to flood south there again and should help get the extent back up to at least average.

In general, things looking quite positive for some strong growth, with the only place capable of putting a dent in it being the Bering sea ice which looks to have lost any very cold air for the time being.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree with that BFTV, just hope any 'late spurt' lasts longer than last years?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcta29/ta29-1329-a-apt.html

If we look up to the Siberian side of Bering (and beyond towards the pole) you can see 3 major 'leads' opening up.

I've checked back and they only appear to have formed on the 28th so maybe those 'storms' that BFTV told us of were not as benign as they appeared to be???

[oldsnowywizard]

PIPS 2.0 is not validated for ice thickness, especially across the centre of the pack. It's used for forecasting the position of the ice *edge* for shipping purposes. For volume estimates, the one to use is PIOMAS, here.

http://psc.apl.washi...e/IceVolume.php

Edit to add: another pubic product is TOPAZ, here (choose variable "hice" in the Arctic dropdown section).

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php

maybe but still interesting to see that using the same data capture methods and measurements the end result is that according to them the ice is thicker for each Jan over the last couple of years...

the second data set is also interesting but I can only see up to the end of dec.. it would be interesting to see how the graph goes for Jan 11...

the last link...well shows the complete opposite and a massive loss of ice volume.. which one is right? who knows

[Gray-Wolf]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.2.html

Looks like Bering is putting on a late spurt? Are we at the beginning of a 'new' re-freeze 'norm'? Seeing as (since 2000) we are AO-ve predominated we could expect a certain 'flavour' to re-freeze (as opposed to the AO+ve pattern through the 80 and 90's). If we see another 'ice factory' setup and high level to ice extent max (with a late finish to the 'freeze' season) I will be seriously wondering whether we are seeing the 'birth' of a new Arctic 'norm'.

I'm sure we will not see the same folk who cried 'recovery' last year fall foul of the same this year if the final figure does indeed end up artificially high (09's Dec figure was quite low but the 'ice factory/lower lat lake/sea freeze' pulled the figure up to a high point by late March). I'm sure we all know that ice that has only been around for 2 and a bit months will not prove as resilient as ice that has formed for 5 months (or 5,15,50 years!!)

What we will all witness, this coming melt, is just how resistant to 'in-situ' melt ice under 5 years old is. I think I already know how weak it is but now ,with all the ice under 5 years old, we will see just how the 'new Arctic' copes with a summer season?

I ,for one, expect the 'North Pole 'to take a swim this year as we know that the ice across the central pole was lost to Fram before Christmas so we only have 'new ice' covering that area (and not the drifted older ice that we had there last summer) so maybe an entertaining watch come July?