Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[BornFromTheVoid]

The ice situation is looking ok at the moment. A small gain today of just under 30,000km2 at the first update which leaves us at 2nd lowest on record. We should be able to stay ahead of 2006 for another week, once, though unlikely, we don't start losing extent.

Looking at the concentration images on the IJIS site here it seems the areas of strongest growth have been in the Barents and especially the sea of Okhotsk.

Looking ahead to conditions at t96

It seems we retain the coldest air over the sea of Okhotsk, Barents and also the Greenland/Newfoundland sea. These are all areas with plenty of room and potential for ice growth.

Air over Barents remains fairly cold, which may allow for some growth. The lack of strong winds in the area should prevent too much drifting also.

By t144

Not a whole lot of change, which in this case is quite positive for extent growth. The cold air remaining in generally the same areas as at t96. Which leads me to think we should see growth of over 40,000km2 per day for the next 5 or 6 days at least.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.2.html

Looks like Bering is putting on a late spurt? Are we at the beginning of a 'new' re-freeze 'norm'? Seeing as (since 2000) we are AO-ve predominated we could expect a certain 'flavour' to re-freeze (as opposed to the AO+ve pattern through the 80 and 90's). If we see another 'ice factory' setup and high level to ice extent max (with a late finish to the 'freeze' season) I will be seriously wondering whether we are seeing the 'birth' of a new Arctic 'norm'.

Though it may be the the graph being a few days behind, if you watch the animation for the Bering sea area here you can see that it's been losing ice over the last few days, so I imagine this growth spurt will be short lived.

I'm sure we will not see the same folk who cried 'recovery' last year fall foul of the same this year if the final figure does indeed end up artificially high (09's Dec figure was quite low but the 'ice factory/lower lat lake/sea freeze' pulled the figure up to a high point by late March). I'm sure we all know that ice that has only been around for 2 and a bit months will not prove as resilient as ice that has formed for 5 months (or 5,15,50 years!!)

What we will all witness, this coming melt, is just how resistant to 'in-situ' melt ice under 5 years old is. I think I already know how weak it is but now ,with all the ice under 5 years old, we will see just how the 'new Arctic' copes with a summer season?

I ,for one, expect the 'North Pole 'to take a swim this year as we know that the ice across the central pole was lost to Fram before Christmas so we only have 'new ice' covering that area (and not the drifted older ice that we had there last summer) so maybe an entertaining watch come July?

I was actually speaking to someone at a house party last week that was from Newfoundland. She was telling me that last summer was the first time they didn't see any "icebegs" floating past in living memory and that many of the older folk were shocked by it.

I realise it's just the perspective of an individual town and isn't globally representative, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless!

[Gray-Wolf]

I was actually speaking to someone at a house party last week that was from Newfoundland. She was telling me that last summer was the first time they didn't see any "icebergs" floating past in living memory and that many of the older folk were shocked by it.

I realise it's just the perspective of an individual town and isn't globally representative, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless!

We are hearing such from many of the aboriginal folks who inhabit the Arctic circle and yet ,to those who it suits, such stories are ignored or dismissed?

We are quite certain now that the 'Flood myths' that are common to many belief structures are a memory of the last major inundations after the last ice age. The latest being the Black sea inundation. If 'folk memory' remembers that far back why do those folk not 'remember/tell tales' of the last time the ice was no longer to be trusted? Why are their elders no longer able to 'read the signs' telling them of approaching bad weather (and it's timing)?

To me the lack of such knowledge points towards this being a 'new' occurrence and that those folk who 'live off the land' in such places have no 'folk memory' to help them deal with the change.

Funny thing is I've heard some of those folk who dismiss northern folk law holding up Aboriginal folk law to show that the Australian flooding is not without past precedent..........odd that?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2011/01/if_the_arctic_is_really.html

Talk about sick as a Parrot!

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010GL045662.shtml

Wouldn't mind a proper read of the above!

Seeing as we have suffered similar this winter can we expect a similar toll this summer? If we remember the loss of that mass of Paleocrystic ice in S.Beaufort we can see why it may be easier to melt out more ice this time?

When you remember that the channels of the Canadian Archipelago also lost all there 'channel ice' last year (and the NE tip of Greenland it's shelf ice) than we can see a much 'smoother' exit from the basin will also be available this summer.

I'd even go so far as to predict a steady flow of Arctic ice through the C.A. 'feed channels' into Melville and along the North side of the deep channel of the NW Passageand off into Baffin?

Another 'exit' helps the central pack relax out more (more water between floes) and so aids melting in the Higher latitudes. With no 'backbone' to the pack anymore we may see a very different 'pattern' to our coming melt season?

[BornFromTheVoid]

An updated graph of the sea ice with years since 2006 highlighted a bit. Been been ironing out some of the errors I found in it so it looks a little different to the last one in parts.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Seems like we are facing a similar 'pattern' to the one last winter? With even less 'old ice' in the basin I very much suspect we will see a very rapid fall off of ice levels through late May and June (like last year) and less of a dependence on synoptics to bring in a very low Sept min. Should we fall foul of synoptics I fear we may well approach a 'seasonal ice' status.

If Overland is right in his observations of the impacts of less ice on N.Hemisphere winter weather then we can also expect some areas of the N.Hemisphere to suffer from the displacement of Polar air over the early part of winter 11' (and some areas will 'benefit' from warmer temps than is the norm as the warm air floods in to replace the displaced cold).

I just wish that the summer melt pattern could provide us with a hot, blocked July /Aug!!!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

We are hearing such from many of the aboriginal folks who inhabit the Arctic circle and yet ,to those who it suits, such stories are ignored or dismissed?

We are quite certain now that the 'Flood myths' that are common to many belief structures are a memory of the last major inundations after the last ice age. The latest being the Black sea inundation. If 'folk memory' remembers that far back why do those folk not 'remember/tell tales' of the last time the ice was no longer to be trusted? Why are their elders no longer able to 'read the signs' telling them of approaching bad weather (and it's timing)?

To me the lack of such knowledge points towards this being a 'new' occurrence and that those folk who 'live off the land' in such places have no 'folk memory' to help them deal with the change.

Funny thing is I've heard some of those folk who dismiss northern folk law holding up Aboriginal folk law to show that the Australian flooding is not without past precedent..........odd that?

Hi GW, not disagreeing with you to any great degree, but I would think the archetypal Flood would have affected significantly more people, and therefore have a greater folk memory than changes in the Arctic. I was reading a description of the likely effects and timescale of the Black sea inundation, and it is assumed it took over a decade, can you imagine, living alongside a lake that starts rising, so you move to higher ground, 6 months later you have to move again, and again, and again. think of the number of humans starting to drag their way from Hunter Gatherers to settled in communities and you see how that would live in the memory. the numbers in the North at that time would have been smaller AND much further south, colonisation of those parts would not even have started at that point

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEM660Y1LJG_index_0.html

Well that only took a year!!! I wonder how much we'll be hearing about this data stream from now on?

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEM660Y1LJG_index_0.html

Well that only took a year!!! I wonder how much we'll be hearing about this data stream from now on?

Look forward to seeing what kinda readings and results they've gotten so far compared to the PIPS and PIOMAS stuff.

Another small increase today of about 30,000km2, which is a little disappointing seen as conditions are ideal for strong growth and Hudson has fully frozen over now. Perhaps things will look better over the coming days...

Looking at the CT data, it seems it's been almost 9 months since we've been within 750,000km2 of the long term average.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've applied for access so we'll see how that goes?

Never mind the Arctic I've a 'crack; (Last time I used the 250m/pixel Modis image it was 1.75km wide and over 500km long [with 20 miles between 'crack' and Ross Sea]!) that the first images gave a profile of and 'realtime data' will map day by day (winter and summer!)

It'll be fun to cross match 'extent' images with daily 'tickness plots'?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A surprise drop in extent today at the first update of over 30,000km2. It seems the Arctic is finding it difficult to form any fresh ice around it's peripheries and is mostly relying on ice drift and then refreezing. I haven't been watching long enough to know whether that's the case all the time or not, but it seems a little strange to me.

We've had these favourable conditions in the Barents sea and sea of Okhotsk for most of the winter yet are still a good bit below average, while deep cold over the Greenland sea for around 10 days has resulted in a gain of less than 100,000km2, despite being over 400,000km2 behind average.

Here's a graphs showing sea ice extent since 2000

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like we still have poor growth in the basin (or good growth balanced by losses?)? With the 'cold' now locked up there and not spilling out over us you'd have expected some kind of recovery? The closer to the end of the season we get the more concerned I am about the coming melt.

I've said for years now that any low start point would lead to a record min even with a bog average summer, maybe this year we'll get to find out?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Pending the update later on, we're currently at 2nd lowest on record. A small drop yesterday of 3,000km2 and an initial drop today of around 37,000km2 has once again left us within touching distance of lowest on record.

On the concentration images, it seems the sea ice has sufferred small reductions right across the Arctic, with maybe just the Baffin/Newfoundland sea seeing any kinda of overall gain.

[PersianPaladin]

Are you hoping for a

?

Edited February 7, 2011 by PersianPaladin

[Gray-Wolf]

No miracle yet P.P. ,still a very slow week on the ice front;

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

will we break 14million before melt season begins???

[knocker]

Don't know if this is of interest.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2010–2011, unusually cold temperatures and heavy snowstorms plagued North America and Europe, while conditions were unusually warm farther north. Now the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has reported that Arctic sea ice was at its lowest extent ever recorded for January (since satellite records began).

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data and sea ice extent contours courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=49132

[knocker]

Clouds — An Unwelcome Blanket for Arctic Sea Ice?

By Anthony Del Genio — February 2011

The climate of the Arctic appears to be extremely sensitive to human influences, but it is relatively poorly understood because it is poorly observed and involves interactions among the ocean, the overlying sea ice, snow resting on the sea ice, and the atmosphere above. Climate models predict significant future Arctic sea ice decline as the planet warms, but the models disagree over the rate at which this will occur, and the rate of sea ice retreat observed during the satellite era is actually faster than the model predictions, suggesting that the models do not adequately simulate the physical processes that regulate sea ice thickness and extent.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/delgenio_06/

SHEBA meteorological instrumentation being set up on the Arctic sea ice. (Photo credit: NOAA/ESRL/Daniel Wolfe)

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the worry is that ,during re-freeze, the moist heat lost forms a low cloud/fog over that area and reduces the radiation out into space slowing the heat loss and prolonging the time the ocean stays fluid (insulating it?)

We are now at winters end and according to

we have some very thin ,new ice around? Is the water below still warm enough to speed melt once sunlight and higher temps arrive?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think the worry is that ,during re-freeze, the moist heat lost forms a low cloud/fog over that area and reduces the radiation out into space slowing the heat loss and prolonging the time the ocean stays fluid (insulating it?)

We are now at winters end and according to

we have some very thin ,new ice around? Is the water below still warm enough to speed melt once sunlight and higher temps arrive?

Where'd you get the image from GW?

Edit: Nevermind, found it!

Edited February 8, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

Pretty soon I hope we'll not need to rely on such graphics as one organisation or another will utilise the daily data flow from Cryosat2 and plot out the results for us? (I'm still struggling to connect to their server so I hope it's just 'overload' since they went 'live' for everyone and not anything else?).

With such pitiful thicknesses being shown it's easy to doubt them? Surely Baffin has more than that to melt this spring? Surely the Russian side is not that depleted? Surely there was more over riding and buckling along C.A. and N. Greenland?Surely all that second,third and forth year ice that ended up in Fram didn't melt so fast (though we did see images that supported 'rapid melt from Wokingham?) Surely the south side of the NW Passage has put on more ice than that???

Even I'm a tad depressed by the prospects esp. if it means more horrid summers and nasty starts to winter......all we need now is a slump in the Arctic ridge between Norway and Scotland and we''ll be back to where we were 3 million years ago!!!

[4wd]

Early February is not winter's end in the Arctic. (or here for that matter)

Little more than half way through the main freezing season.

[songster]

Pretty soon I hope we'll not need to rely on such graphics as one organisation or another will utilise the daily data flow from Cryosat2 and plot out the results for us? (I'm still struggling to connect to their server so I hope it's just 'overload' since they went 'live' for everyone and not anything else?).

I don't think we'll have this data for some time yet. I've not looked at the actual data, but I had a peek at the overview schema for what they'll supply. Right now the stream is limited to raw reflectances and altitude measurements - they say that in a year's time they'll start including measurements of ice freeboard. That's because they can't compute the ice freeboard until they have a really good measure of the underlying sea levels to use as a reference. Even once they start adding in ice freeboard data, it's not going to be in a form remotely usable by the general public as it's released as a block-by-block scan track along the satellite's orbital path. You'd need some pretty sophisticated software to stitch that together into a nice neat map of the region.

TLDR version: don't expect to see Cryosat thickness maps until next year at the earliest.

[keithlucky]

Pretty soon I hope we'll not need to rely on such graphics as one organisation or another will utilise the daily data flow from Cryosat2 and plot out the results for us? (I'm still struggling to connect to their server so I hope it's just 'overload' since they went 'live' for everyone and not anything else?).

With such pitiful thicknesses being shown it's easy to doubt them? Surely Baffin has more than that to melt this spring? Surely the Russian side is not that depleted? Surely there was more over riding and buckling along C.A. and N. Greenland?Surely all that second,third and forth year ice that ended up in Fram didn't melt so fast (though we did see images that supported 'rapid melt from Wokingham?) Surely the south side of the NW Passage has put on more ice than that???

Even I'm a tad depressed by the prospects esp. if it means more horrid summers and nasty starts to winter......all we need now is a slump in the Arctic ridge between Norway and Scotland and we''ll be back to where we were 3 million years ago!!!

Lack of ice is not the worry its all those bloody oil companies ready to attack and rape the last area on earth that man can destroy.

[noggin]

Here's one for Wolfie........I hope that it brings you some hope!

All is not lost, there is no "tipping point".

See this:

http://www.agu.org/news/press/jhighlight_archives/2011/2011-02-09.shtml#one

It is not the full article, but the full article/paper can be linked to via the link. I just wasn't sure if I'd be infringing some rules by linking to the entire thing. :unsure:

I hope you find it encouraging, Wolfie.

[jethro]

Here's one for Wolfie........I hope that it brings you some hope!

All is not lost, there is no "tipping point".

See this:

http://www.agu.org/n...02-09.shtml#one

It is not the full article, but the full article/paper can be linked to via the link. I just wasn't sure if I'd be infringing some rules by linking to the entire thing. :unsure:

I hope you find it encouraging, Wolfie.

Good find Noggin.

I speculated on this a while back but was told in no uncertain terms that the loss of albedo was everything.

A natural negative feedback which counters run away warming - they have to exist otherwise we wouldn't be here.