Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm starting to worry that we've already 'max'ed out' and that any 'growth' (from here on in) will just be framentation and drift?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well the first IJIS update today shows a loss of 108,000km2, which is very high for the time of year, though probably not completely unheard of. With the worst of the conditions not due to arrive until later today and tomorrow, I wonder could the loss be even greater on tomorrows or Mondays updates?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi BFTV!

I think we both suspect that thing's are slightly 'different' up there these days and we will be witnessing the type of 'melt' that we will see for the years to come?

I'm concerned about the amount of 'young,thin' ice that we know is in the basin, I'm concerned that this ice will just 'naturally' melt out over a 'normal' season and that this will not leave much else and 'warm' (via dark water) the remnants of the August pack making our losses even greater?

I'm sorry for those who have hoped against hope (I know this feeling) but some times we just need to accept 'what is' and move on?

[knocker]

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored."

Aldous Huxley

[BornFromTheVoid]

Think I was a little off with the loss at the first update, it was 80,000km2, not 108,000km2. Having a slow morning methinks.

Has the 2nd update ever increased the loss?

EDIT: Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies from October 1st to Feb 23rd for the last 3 years

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

Not a whole lot of difference, but the warm anomalies seem centered slightly more so over the Arctic Basin than last year. (Excluding Greenland of course)

Edited February 26, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

As I think we'll find with Antarctica it is not just a 'temperature thing' with mass loss. We have needed a 50% reduction in volume of the ice before ice started to 'flow' out of the basin in an unsustainable way. temp may have lead to the 50% 'reduction in volume' but mechanics (circulation patterns ,flow rates etc) allowed for us to be where we are today.

Those folk who believe a couple of 'cold seasons' will make things right are wrong (IMHO!) and the next favourable moment (climate wise) will drop us back to where we find ourselves today. It took a long time (over two 'long cycles' ) in the Arctic to allow us to be here today, that abnormal ,drip ,drip, warming (across all phases of the 'natural cycle') is why we are here and where is the energy that used to be spent 'bringing us here' going to be spent now?

I'm not a happy bunny (for many reasons) but my fears for the Arctic and the impacts on N. Hemisphere climate (and food production),should we be truely 'flip ,flopping states' is terrifying to me.

Edited February 27, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Another positive day here I see? (Not!)

I think the 'freeze' is all over ? we may see gains but 'Modis' will show us well any 'framentation and drift' of peripheral ice that there is?

I wish for the Polar air to be locked into the Arctic for the next 2 months!!!

! I do vnot want a 'last splah of winter' if it means WAA into the Basin!!!!

Edited February 27, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ice extent has held up surprisingly well over the weekend. A lot of ice drift has helped, especailly is the sea of Okhotsk.

I created a little animation to show the ice drift there, the images are from the modis Arctic mosaic and span from the 25th of Feb to today (March 1st).

[Iceberg]

It looks like the current 2011 figure(probably around the height for this winter) is the same level as the 72-2008 average for mid may....

Quite breathtaking really.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Quite breathtaking really.

In a not very good way ! But don't worry, it's all natural cycles and we'll back up to average ice coverage conditions within a few years.................

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Yup PTFD, and the porcine aviators will see it happen!

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci...3220000.1km.jpg

This is the South Beaufort sea, one of the old 'strongholds' of the Paleocrystic ice and where Prof Barber went to see how the ice was doing back in sept 09' only to find it crumbling. Last year we saw the 'plume' of Paleocrystic that had ridden around the Beaufort Gyre die in the waters there.

The above image is from yesterday and where once was shore fast ice running into Paleocrystic ice we see massive leads and fragmenting ice (in early March!!!) .

Anyone like to guess how this area will look come mid June?

Edited March 5, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

Hi GW.

I've been away from the worlds and realms of ice for a little while, but a quick look at how things have faired from 2010 to now is soul destroying indeed.

Latest Grace estimates show the largest loss of ice in Greenland on record.

An Extra 60 days of melting in some parts of greenland compared to averge.

Incredibly low winter extent maxes.

The worst part of all is the worsening trend i.e we arn't loosing the same amount each year to reach a record low, but instead the amount lost is increasing each year with a step change during the famous 2007 year..

My initial research and thoughts are suggesting that a normal synoptic setup for the arctic will lead to record low ice extent and record ice melt for greenland this year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS has updated to the 5th, and has us at 13,733,281km2. The number we need to breach to avoid lowest maximum extent on record is 13,782,344km2 from 2006.

Temperature anomalies for Dec 1st-February 28th for 2006 and this year.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW.

I've been away from the worlds and realms of ice for a little while, but a quick look at how things have faired from 2010 to now is soul destroying indeed.

Latest Grace estimates show the largest loss of ice in Greenland on record.

An Extra 60 days of melting in some parts of greenland compared to averge.

Incredibly low winter extent maxes.

The worst part of all is the worsening trend i.e we arn't loosing the same amount each year to reach a record low, but instead the amount lost is increasing each year with a step change during the famous 2007 year..

My initial research and thoughts are suggesting that a normal synoptic setup for the arctic will lead to record low ice extent and record ice melt for greenland this year.

I think I found myself reaching the same conclusions Ice, even with a very 'conservative' melt set up we will still post a top 4 min come Sept. Any early spurts and we could find ourselves with a lot of dark water in the Basin before Aug. If we look at the latest (Feb 24) thickness plots from 'Topaz';

http://topaz.nersc.n...iable_name=hice

we see an awful lot of sub 1.5m ice right across the basin. If 2m thick ice is the 'benchmark' for what normally 'disappears' over a normal summer we can see the scale of the issues?

EDIT: As an aside just check the NW Passage (deep channel) on that plot and have a guess whether it will be open (again) this year!!! It could even be open late June by the looks of things (a lot of 'warm shallows' in the Archipelago and no 'shorefast ice' any more)

EDIT;EDIT : And if we have a poor start to the melt season (with rapid melt) then all bets are off come late July/Aug as we may be left with only the thin strand of ice atop of C.A./N. Greenland

Edited March 8, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Village]

No need to get soul destroyed about the loss in Arctic Ice.

One should be rejoicing IMO.

The more exposed land in the northern hemisphere then the better for all carbon based life forms.....that means us guys!...it means more life , more diversified life and more food! :-)

You certainly wont be very happy if the Ice started to build again to levels that it did a few thousand years ago....then you will really have something to worry about.

Edited March 8, 2011 by Village

[stewfox]

IJIS has updated to the 5th, and has us at 13,733,281km2. The number we need to breach to avoid lowest maximum extent on record is 13,782,344km2 from 2006.

13,847,813Km2 today. The Max for 2007 looks like it maybe broken.

Obvioulsy in historical perspective its low.

Are we seeing later spurts because of ealier break up ?

[keithlucky]

13,847,813Km2 today. The Max for 2007 looks like it maybe broken.

Obvioulsy in historical perspective its low.

Are we seeing later spurts because of ealier break up ?

May be thinner around greenland but East Antartic is a lot thicker, An International Polar Year aerogeophysical investigation of the high interior of East Antarctica reveals widespread freeze-on that drives significant mass redistribution at the bottom of the ice sheet. While surface accumulation of snow remains the primary mechanism for ice sheet growth, beneath Dome A 24% of the base by area is frozen-on ice. In some places, up to half the ice thickness has been added from below.

These ice packages result from conductive cooling of water ponded near the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountain ridges and supercooling of water forced up steep valley walls. Persistent freeze-on thickens the ice column, alters basal ice rheology and fabric and upwarps the overlying ice sheet, including the oldest atmospheric climate archive, and drives flow behavior not captured in present models.

Edited March 8, 2011 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

May be thinner around greenland but East Antartic is a lot thicker, An International Polar Year aerogeophysical investigation of the high interior of East Antarctica reveals widespread freeze-on that drives significant mass redistribution at the bottom of the ice sheet. While surface accumulation of snow remains the primary mechanism for ice sheet growth, beneath Dome A 24% of the base by area is frozen-on ice. In some places, up to half the ice thickness has been added from below.

These ice packages result from conductive cooling of water ponded near the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountain ridges and supercooling of water forced up steep valley walls. Persistent freeze-on thickens the ice column, alters basal ice rheology and fabric and upwarps the overlying ice sheet, including the oldest atmospheric climate archive, and drives flow behavior not captured in present models.

To include Eastern Antarctica in the Artic ice levels might annoy some members as not being scientifically sound :unsure:

Additionnal 22,000kms gain now needed to past 2007 max

Edited March 9, 2011 by stewfox

[songster]

To include Eastern Antarctica in the Artic ice levels might annoy some members as not being scientifically sound :unsure:

Also, as covered in the other thread, basal "freeze-on" has zero relevance to gain or loss of ice, it simply moves ice from once place to another. How can it be otherwise - it occurs due to ice melting and then re-freezing! There is no magical net source of ice in that process.

[BornFromTheVoid]

To include Eastern Antarctica in the Artic ice levels might annoy some members as not being scientifically sound :unsure:

Additionnal 22,000kms gain now needed to past 2007 max

Up to 13,887,188km2, though as far as I can see, the 2007 maximum was 13,945,625km2, so we still have a bit to go yet.

CT shows the gains continuing on aswell, with us having breached the 13 million mark.

The ice around the Bering strait is looking in very poor condition compared to last year.

2010

2011

[Gray-Wolf]

And if you look at the East Siberian ice (that we've been re-assured about?) on MODIS you see all of the sections, to the rear of Bering, are quite a mess? There does not appear to be any 'ridging/over-riding' of the ice both on the Siberian and Alaskan side, just open water?

After mulling the 'guesstimate' that is TOPAZ I have to worry that even if I added 1m thickness ,across the board, that it will be 'touch and go' this summer (as to record breaking melts)?

I just fail to see any 'Good News'???......maybe just me?

Edited March 9, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php?action=NA_ARC_NWA_Function&file_prefix=ARC&match_date=20110224&depth=0005&variable_name=hice

Seeing as nobody seems to want to bite lets see what happens outside the Arctic Ocean? Without a 'halocline layer' of the depths we used to see in the 'old Arctic' seasonal sea ice, 2.5m or less, melts out over an average summer (look at what happened to the 'record high' in Antarctic sea ice now melt season there is drawing to a close?). How much 2.5m+ sea ice do we see in the Topaz plot?.......I don't want to go all 'Paul Daniels' on you but 'Not a lot'????

[songster]

You really can't draw that parallel - Antarctic sea ice is all at much lower latitudes (around 60 to 75 degrees south) and consequently gets a lot more insolation in summer. This (very roughly!) matches the Arctic latitudes that are already seasonal, plus parts of the North Atlantic that never freeze at all.

[Gray-Wolf]

You really can't draw that parallel - Antarctic sea ice is all at much lower latitudes (around 60 to 75 degrees south) and consequently gets a lot more insolation in summer. This (very roughly!) matches the Arctic latitudes that are already seasonal, plus parts of the North Atlantic that never freeze at all.

So if we see a melt greater than 07' ,and approaching the 'seasonal' threshold, we can say something very serious is happening to the ice above 75n?