Better Than The Models ?

[Timmytour]

it seems to me that his forecast involved an unusual (though not exactly rare) level of air pressure over the UK..... but as I see the models pan out it looks like perhaps such levels will almost be the norm for this winter.

He mentioned a couple of days ago....having already made his forecast the previous week...

I believe that on 19 December 2010 a deep low pressure system (circa 960 mb) will occur at about 70 degrees north and 3 degrees east

Is there any sign the models are leaning toward this or indeed were they already doing so a couple or more days ago?

[MattS]

In the winter and autumn discussion area.....under winter discussion thread with all the others.

BFTP

Thanks BFTP, gonna head over there right now!

Edited December 7, 2010 by MattS

[Timmytour]

I'm gonna put a quiet word in here while the model threads are buzzing with anticipation.....

The forecast behind this thread is the doomsday scenario....not in terms of the weather it brings, but the hopes it will dash if it were to come true.

At the moment I don't think anyone regards it as the faintest of possibilities.... but I recognise the extent of excitement I've seen on the modelling thread....and I believe it will end, like it so often does, in tears. So many changes over the short term....perhaps at the moment from cold to very cold..... but what happens when things go a little bit too far west, too far east, too far south, too far north?

I believe we end up with a prediction posted way way way back which defeats the models best efforts over the last seven days.

I hope not.....but we shall see....

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

There doesn't appear to be any support for his December predictions from any of the models at the moment.

Maybe he has some refining to do on his model.

[Timmytour]

There doesn't appear to be any support for his December predictions from any of the models at the moment.

Maybe he has some refining to do on his model.

I wouldn't rule his model out yet...... just because the models may not support what he says.....the models don't support what they themselves have said any two days later at the moment!!!

[GeorgeWX]

it seems to me that his forecast involved an unusual (though not exactly rare) level of air pressure over the UK..... but as I see the models pan out it looks like perhaps such levels will almost be the norm for this winter.

He mentioned a couple of days ago....having already made his forecast the previous week...

Is there any sign the models are leaning toward this or indeed were they already doing so a couple or more days ago?

I don't know for sure but the arctic low that the models say is due to hit the UK on the 17th would be the nearest contender to his 'circa 960mb' thats due (according to his prediction) on the 19th, He also describes HP travelling north easterly from Portugal on the run up to the 25th, The models are also suggesting that scenario might occur.

Very strange and goes against all my instincts, But I think both the forecast for the 19th and the 25th will be correct though possibly out of sync by 12 or 24 hours.

If they are correct....... well...

[Timmytour]

I don't know for sure but the arctic low that the models say is due to hit the UK on the 17th would be the nearest contender to his 'circa 960mb' thats due (according to his prediction) on the 19th, He also describes HP travelling north easterly from Portugal on the run up to the 25th, The models are also suggesting that scenario might occur.

Very strange and goes against all my instincts, But I think both the forecast for the 19th and the 25th will be correct though possibly out of sync by 12 or 24 hours.

If they are correct....... well...

George....is it possible that a Polar low could develop and fulfill his theory about the 19th, from almost out of nowhere?

Edited December 15, 2010 by Timmytour

[Buzzit]

Whatever method it shows similar to RJS and me but I'll add some more into it. Full moon on 21st is a peak energy period so a deep depression will affect the UK/Ireland followed quickly by HP building in behind. The track will determine temp but before 21st we'll have been in aprolonged cold set up. Is this peak energy period a synoptic changer? That is the question but I think not. Christmas, cold calm and crisp.

BFTP

BFTP does your forecast have something to do with the moon north declination peak on the 20th, the winter solstice total lunar eclipse on the 21st and the lunar perigee on the 25th and the moons southward crossing of the celestial equator on the 26th ? In lunar terms the energy in this is enormous...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP does your forecast have something to do with the moon north declination peak on the 20th, the winter solstice total lunar eclipse on the 21st and the lunar perigee on the 25th and the moons southward crossing of the celestial equator on the 26th ? In lunar terms the energy in this is enormous...

Not to steal this thread but yes absolutely spot on.

Re the LP it looks like being 50 deg north and not 70 deg?

BFTP

Edited December 16, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[GeorgeWX]

George....is it possible that a Polar low could develop and fulfill his theory about the 19th, from almost out of nowhere?

Bit late to respond, having spent so much time watching current developments I forgot about this.

Being honest I was trying to align the forecast models with this guys prediction the best way that made sense. I thought it was quite an achievement to accurately forecast 2 months in advance, He also mentions accurately predicting a couple other forecasts well in advance but didn't make them public. I was looking at his methods with optimism.

Now we are on the 19th it seems his forecast for today was well off with LP of around 997mb at 56N and not 960mb at 70N.

According to the 12UTC FAX analysis, todays pressure at 70N and 3E is around 1020mb.

Good news for any other optimists out there who want a white christmas.

Edited December 19, 2010 by GeorgeWX

[Timmytour]

Hi George..... it has been interesting! Not quite ruling him out yet as the low was not really a part of his actual forecast, but what he supposed might happen to cause a shift in the models from what they were projecting to what he was showing.

And I'm not sure yet that Christmas won't have seen the introduction of milder air, especially to southen parts.....but I'll be even more astonished if everything switches in just over five days to bear out his forecast!

[Timmytour]

Looks like he has resumed posting on his thread and seems to be refining his forecast a little.....and wondering when the models are going to fall in line with him

But it also looks like he's been a naughty boy! Currently suspended from the forum for a pm he sent one of the moderators. Is that the result of a temper tantrum of a gambler who's got it wrong?

[Interitus]

I think his "forecast" is not a bad effort at all. The pressure chart isn't a million miles away from reality considering that it could be completely different, and maybe the weather forecast didn't take into account conditions in the preceding days - the pressure pattern imposed on our average climatology might give conditions similar to those suggested.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think his "forecast" is not a bad effort at all. The pressure chart isn't a million miles away from reality considering that it could be completely different, and maybe the weather forecast didn't take into account conditions in the preceding days - the pressure pattern imposed on our average climatology might give conditions similar to those suggested.

That is fairly remarkable or lucky.

Looks like his main errors are the exact position of the low and high pressures being 24 hours out (26th looks like it will match up better than 25th) and the high pressure that is much much lower than he expected. Also he did not predict the expected ice day - his temps were as high as 7C in some places. He would seem to be getting the gales in the NW islands right.

He's done enough to keep people interested in his forecasts but certainly he can learn a lot more to make them more accurate.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Edited December 25, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Interitus]

That is fairly remarkable or lucky.

Looks like his main errors are the exact position of the low and high pressures being 24 hours out (26th looks like it will match up better than 25th) and the high pressure that is much much lower than he expected. Also he did not predict the expected ice day - his temps were as high as 7C in some places. He would seem to be getting the gales in the NW islands right.

He's done enough to keep people interested in his forecasts but certainly he can learn a lot more to make them more accurate.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Lucky I suspect, certainly needs to back it up a few more times. An ice day is quite a way from what he forecast, but giving him the benefit of the doubt, going off pressure charts alone probably wouldn't suggest this without knowing about the cold air in place. I think if a computer model came up with this a month in advance, people would be quite impressed and happy to use it as guideline.

[MurcieBoy]

Hello

Registered to join Netweather a couple of weeks ago and have enjoyed reading the posts on this thread (you have been much kinder to me than some of those in the other place!).

I must say at the outset, having only read a small sample of their posts, I am fan of Roger J Smith and BFTP. I did read one of Roger’s first posts from 1 November 2005 and many aspects of that post resonated with me – especially about being “chased from the building by the high priestsâ€

In the two weeks to the run up to Xmas, I always logged on to read OON’s hilarious introductory remarks opening the thread on the day’s feeds. As I am not a weather person, I had no idea what folk were talking about most of the time, but it was very entertaining nonetheless

As you know, following my forecast of the low on Friday 12 November 2010, I was challenged to come up with a forecast for Xmas 2010 before 20/11/10. I’ve learnt an awful lot from doing that forecast and hope to put that into more accurate forecasts in the future.

In the meantime, I provide a link below to a short 6 minute video that candidly compares my forecast to the actual and also to the GFS feeds that started on 9 December 2010. I thought it might be of interest:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc0GDiGJkJE

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Hello

Registered to join Netweather a couple of weeks ago and have enjoyed reading the posts on this thread (you have been much kinder to me than some of those in the other place!).

I must say at the outset, having only read a small sample of their posts, I am fan of Roger J Smith and BFTP. I did read one of Roger’s first posts from 1 November 2005 and many aspects of that post resonated with me – especially about being “chased from the building by the high priestsâ€

In the two weeks to the run up to Xmas, I always logged on to read OON’s hilarious introductory remarks opening the thread on the day’s feeds. As I am not a weather person, I had no idea what folk were talking about most of the time, but it was very entertaining nonetheless

As you know, following my forecast of the low on Friday 12 November 2010, I was challenged to come up with a forecast for Xmas 2010 before 20/11/10. I’ve learnt an awful lot from doing that forecast and hope to put that into more accurate forecasts in the future.

In the meantime, I provide a link below to a short 6 minute video that candidly compares my forecast to the actual and also to the GFS feeds that started on 9 December 2010. I thought it might be of interest:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc0GDiGJkJE

Welcome to Netweather. I'm going to add you to the large list of frequent forecasters I check out on the forum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc0GDiGJkJE

I think your youtube videos are a great way to present your forecasts! Perhaps others could learn to do this... one tip though, I find reading the words hard when the music in the background is a song that has spoken words, so I had to turn the music off.

Is it possible to embed youtube videos?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc0GDiGJkJE

Edited December 27, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Timmytour]

Welcome MurcieBoy

I shall follow you with interest. I was very impressed by your first forecast and though your Christmas day forecast was less impressive, I recognise that it was one you were a bit pressed into providing as opposed to the first one which you volunteered.

But I think your youtube appraisal is great and you certainly hit home a point about the variety of forecasts provided by the models leading upto the day.

[Snooz]

That is fairly remarkable or lucky.

Looks like his main errors are the exact position of the low and high pressures being 24 hours out (26th looks like it will match up better than 25th) and the high pressure that is much much lower than he expected. Also he did not predict the expected ice day - his temps were as high as 7C in some places. He would seem to be getting the gales in the NW islands right.

He's done enough to keep people interested in his forecasts but certainly he can learn a lot more to make them more accurate.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Welcome Murcieboy - and very brave of you to put this out there

from my also untrained eye this does indeed look to be quite spookily close, and along with your first forecast is certainly interesting

I was quite impressed from the start seeing the intensity of the initial LOW, - but my interpretation was that the initial predicted LOW 70N 3E seems to have been spot on for the 17th Dec - Fax Chart 17th , starting the whole pattern a bit earlier, then as AF says above the 25th correlates more to the 26/27th, therefore the pattern seems to have taken a wee while to evolve, bit longer than the 6 days of your prediction - effectively 10 days , but not bad a t all from the time you made the initial forecast. Given what actually happened with that whole pattern, i.e. a Polar Vortex split - I don't imagine there's too much historic data with the same "DNA" ..

The details themselves, like North Scotland winds, I presume came from the initial shorter time period as if the pattern where to have evolved quicker (which btw, all models initially suggested too getting us back to milder temps around the 24th/25th) the pressure systems would likely have created closer isobars. However again I'd say the description of the move from SW through S to SE along with the speed was fairly accurate for yesterday the 27th this also did bring the temps up to your initial forecast - The rain from "Edinburgh to Aberdeen" is not too far off either (again for 27th) , From the Borders just south of Edinburgh.. to Aberdeen South from what I can see, although some did get snow/sleet as well as rain in last day or two it never quite reached Aberdeen, though it was borderline drizzle a couple of times in the south of the city I think, therefore I'd say that particular part was pretty darned close too.

it's obviously difficult to demonstrate forecasts 100years in advance LOL, and even Nostradamus's predictions need some form of loose interpretation so I think you should maybe go less for complete accuracy and finesse and stick with overall patterns.. perhaps a Xmas 2011 prediction though?? - I think people will always want to pick on the details that are wrong (just read the model thread in here when models are not showing what they want :wub:) but imo the pattern itself was pretty darned close especially given what happened!!

Good job and Good Luck in the future

[MurcieBoy]

Thanks for the warm welcome guys, it is genuinely much appreciated.

Soundtracks on videos: yes AF, I turn the volume off when checking the video for errors, as can’t concentrate otherwise. Still, if folk don’t like the forecast, they might like the music!

Embedding: yes, please do. They are in the public domain, folk can do as they wish with them. I just want to open up the debate in the nicest possible way (if I can)

Videos: they are a great way of getting one’s point across. For example, it wasn’t until I put together the GFS charts sequentially on the video, that I realised how divergent they were

12 Nov 2010 forecast: yes Timmytour, I had about 9 historic confirmations that it would be as forecasted

25 Dec 2010 forecast: there was only 1 historic confirmation at the time I did the forecast. There was another back in the 1800’s but the data was very sparse. The massive failure re the temperatures and not forecasting the Arctic weather was due to certain elements of the DNA going in and out of sync (between the historic control year and December 2010) – luckily they came together for 25 Dec 2010, otherwise the pressure chart for 00hrs 25 Dec 2010 would have been way off. I think predicting the location of the Low and High pressure systems near Iceland and over the UK respectively, meant for me the 25 Dec 2010 forecast was more satisfying than 12 Nov one. Forecasting the magnitude of the pressure is something I will need to refine. NB: re the pressure for London on the same historic day in the past, two very respected and well known sources gave two different pressure levels, one gave 1045mb and the other 1040mb (unfortunately I took the higher and my forecasted level was further out!)

19 Dec 2010: Did cock up the low for 00hrs 19 Dec 2010, thinking it would be at circa 70N where it was around 50N! That was due to DNA’s being out of sync again, I wouldn’t have known that point had I not made the error. Thanks for the FAX chart for 17 Dec 2010 Snooz, seems it happened then; I shall have a wee look in due course at the configurations and fathom precisely where I went wrong. NB: due to shortage of time, I did not “number crunch†my 19 Dec forecast to find precisely the location of a low (will sort out a wee model on excel to do the calculations quickly).

Still, 18/19 Dec 2010 was the turning point for the pressure as expected and it rose to its top on 25 Dec 2010. The pressure for London, for example, on 19 Dec was circa 990mb and it rose to very close to 1030 on 25 Dec (and has been falling on 26-27 Dec).

Long/short term forecasting: for me, using the method I use, timescales are not the issue. That is, to make a forecast for a precise day next month will be just as “accurate†or “difficult to get accurateâ€, as forecasting a specific day in 1, 10, 15, 20, 50, 100, 200 years time.

The quality/accuracy of the forecast is not dependent upon the distance ahead in the future, but: (i) the accuracy of the weather data for the historic control day(s); (ii) the integrity of my DNA values; and (iii) being able to find historic control days where the DNA did “match up†with the target day in the future, but also with all the days before and after (this is what I have learnt this month). That is, find a historic period in of time where the DNA’s do not go in and out of sync. Such situations maybe very far apart in time and detailed historic weather records are hard to come by.

Demonstrating forecasts 100 years in time: yes, it is difficult to go forwards 100 years and realise that one was right with the forecast! But, one can go backwards! Say today we had 100mph winds across London. I can look at the DNA for today (and surrounding days) and then sort my database and find the same DNA for a historical target day in the past (and of course the surrounding days); this may be say 100 years ago, if the method works, when I finally get the weather records for that historic day, we should also see approximately 100mph winds across London. If they are not there, the method is wrong or an error on my part has been made. So testing can be made re large distances in time (going backwards).

Learning: as I have said, I am in the infancy of this and still learning. For years I did think that stock market traders were the luckiest people to witness the unravelling of nature in front of them (using the price/time charts), but I now know that weather observers are the luckiest, as you have objective data going back for centuries and its 24/7, the markets are only open during week days and only for about circa 6 hours! The study of the weather has really made my life a lot easier in understanding how the rhythms of nature work.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

All very interesting. It would be fun if you made an appearance with the other forecasters in the Model Discussion thread every now and then this winter, if only a short note on what you expect to occur next.

They're use to posters who take a variety of approaches so I'm sure they won't bite - you might even be thought of as normal :D

Edited December 29, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very interesting indeed. It seems to be connected to a rhythmic cycle.

BFTP

[GeorgeWX]

Hi Murcie, well done on your first November forecast, spot on as far as I'm concerned.

It's a shame that the Dec 25th forecast didn't evolve in the manner you predicted in mid November.

You say you had 9 historic confirmations for November 12th yet only 1 for Dec 25th, It would appear to me that the number of these 'confirmations' has a part to play in accuracy. I mirror what Snooz said above in that your x-mas forecast wasn't a long way off though it became apparent around the 17th that the timings were out, might this be due to lack of historical information?

You have previously mentioned a lack of data, There may be people on the forum who could point you in the right direction for the type of archives you are after.

I suggest you go back to the drawing board and find a day in 2011 with several 'historical confirmations' that will be notable like 12/11 was and present your 'experimental forecast' once again.

[peterf]

Not to steal this thread but yes absolutely spot on.

Re the LP it looks like being 50 deg north and not 70 deg?

BFTP

jeeez i'm intrigued now and staying here for more info.

[MurcieBoy]

BFTP: thanks for your comment. It would be nice to compare forecasts someday.

GeorgeWX: you make some interesting observations; if you can put me in touch with folk that have suggestions about data I would be most grateful. The further detailed and historic the better (back to say 1800 would be fabulous; back to 1700 would be the ultimate)

peterf: I sincerely hope your interest would be enhanced by my next forecast.

New forecast

Following AF’s and Snooz’s tentative requests for more forecasts, I took yet another break from doing the VAT return (it should have been done a couple of weeks ago) and had a look at my DNA spreadsheet and my notes from this summer for possible forthcoming predictions that I could make. I had envisaged taking a few weeks to reflect on the results of my recent forecasts and then post again, sometime in February, with a new forecast.

However, the work on the 12 Nov and 25 Dec forecasts (and my normal day to day work) has meant that I have overlooked something major (which I identified back in the summer) and I will post today a new forecast of a very rare event in weather terms.

I have spent most of yesterday till the early hours of this morning writing up the narrative to the forecast and I am just going to turn to drawing the charts. Can someone please advise where I should post this forecast (given that I believe it will be a severe event and that I sure as I can be (given my short experience in weather forecasting) that this event will occur). I will hopefully finish doing the charts by noon time. A video is also being produced for this forecast and will be uploaded today.