Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[DAVID SNOW]

Who are the 'top dogs' Yamkin?

Buster, Fido and Spot.

[yamkin]

Who are the 'top dogs' Yamkin?

Apologies for the late reply...............The Government

[geoffw]

lol blast i can garuntee your feb forecast is totally wrong - id love to hear your excuses lol

[Mark Bayley]

lol blast i can garuntee your feb forecast is totally wrong - id love to hear your excuses lol

Although i would say the Feb forecast is unlikely, i would not write it off just yet! (especially when its only the 10th!)

As is highlighted by tonights ECM..!

Edited February 10, 2011 by Mark Bayley

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

lol blast i can garuntee your feb forecast is totally wrong - id love to hear your excuses lol

There won't be any to you Geoff...I can guarantee that B)

BFTP

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Or anyone, I suspect?

[Methuselah]

Am I right in thinking that the more prozaic (terrestrial) signals have always been leaning towards a milder second half of winter: La Nina, and all that..?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Or anyone, I suspect?

Analysis Piers AFTER Feb is over and will look at whole forecast and subsidiary Feb month update.

Fred

Edited February 11, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Am I right in thinking that the more prozaic (terrestrial) signals have always been leaning towards a milder second half of winter: La Nina, and all that..?

Indeed Pete they have, but if the NE block takes hold then they will be wrong as the composites do not show NE block dominating with a cold E flow. Lots of weather to get through this month yet. I believe the La Nina may have been record breaking?...very strong at least...clearly must have had some effect.

regards

BFTP

Edited February 11, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Let's not wait until the end of the month though. Because, forgive me if I'm being harsh, but the perception I have is that something's always about to happen, and it's always too early to judge, and your forecast changes a little bit and....you know what I'm saying.

As I've said before, I've nothing but admiration for anyone who can put together a meaningful and considered forecast, and it doesn't particularly bother me if they turn out to be right or wrong, but there are numerous occasions in the model thread where you've been hinting at this, and waiting for that, and frankly, I can't remember any of it coming to fruition. This is what gets my goat, as you know....the constant shifting of goalposts and delaying of assessment rather than the actual accuracy. As I say, perhaps this is just my perception, but I think it's one shared with many other people.

[snow raven]

Let's not wait until the end of the month though. Because, forgive me if I'm being harsh, but the perception I have is that something's always about to happen, and it's always too early to judge, and your forecast changes a little bit and....you know what I'm saying.

As I've said before, I've nothing but admiration for anyone who can put together a meaningful and considered forecast, and it doesn't particularly bother me if they turn out to be right or wrong, but there are numerous occasions in the model thread where you've been hinting at this, and waiting for that, and frankly, I can't remember any of it coming to fruition. This is what gets my goat, as you know....the constant shifting of goalposts and delaying of assessment rather than the actual accuracy. As I say, perhaps this is just my perception, but I think it's one shared with many other people.

If NW still had the reputation system, this post would get a +1 from me - totally agree with you OON

[Weather-history]

Read this

"One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed B astardi “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one dayâ€. But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint? Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe B astardi compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Of the last eleven winters, the Met Office forecast milder conditions than actually occurred for nine of them. The last time B astardi predicted a colder winter was last year for eastern Europe. He was right (again). Prior to that, the last cold winter he predicted was for 2002-3. Hardly evidence of him always forecasting cold winters."

http://autonomousmin...-office-v-joe-b astardi/

Edited February 11, 2011 by Paul

[Guest mycroft]

Read this

"One commenter on Hudson’s blog claimed B astardi “always forecasts a cold winter so eventually will get it right one dayâ€. But is that fair or just an ad hominem attack on a man who put the Met Office’s collective nose out of joint? Over a period of time, just how accurate is Joe B astardi compared to our lavishly funded Met Office?

Of the last eleven winters, the Met Office forecast milder conditions than actually occurred for nine of them. The last time B astardi predicted a colder winter was last year for eastern Europe. He was right (again). Prior to that, the last cold winter he predicted was for 2002-3. Hardly evidence of him always forecasting cold winters."

http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2010/01/11/met-office-v-joe-b astardi/

very true mr d,most people who diss Joe B never read what he writes.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Let's not wait until the end of the month though. Because, forgive me if I'm being harsh, but the perception I have is that something's always about to happen, and it's always too early to judge, and your forecast changes a little bit and....you know what I'm saying.

As I've said before, I've nothing but admiration for anyone who can put together a meaningful and considered forecast, and it doesn't particularly bother me if they turn out to be right or wrong, but there are numerous occasions in the model thread where you've been hinting at this, and waiting for that, and frankly, I can't remember any of it coming to fruition. This is what gets my goat, as you know....the constant shifting of goalposts and delaying of assessment rather than the actual accuracy. As I say, perhaps this is just my perception, but I think it's one shared with many other people.

The only thing I've tried to do on the model thread is pick up on specific developments and if it came off or was heading that way I would always add onto a post as per LRF...as this is what stands. Nothing ever overrode the LRF. My Feb update...nothing in the model thread has altered one iota from that...but it could well be wrong. At the end of the day Piers, what comes to stand up to scrutiny is the LRF....nothing else and that is what we are here for?

Sorry if it got your goat, but one thing I have learned is that it isn't worth doing this. And this isn't meant at all as a direct response to you but it is as a general feeling but the bitterness on this site this winter has been woeful...and it just ain't worth it mate....oh OK, well apart from your comments sometimes

It seems odd how posts I made saying that Jan didn't come out as I called it are easily and clearly forgotten. Perceptions? B)

Anyway, I will hang around to see the smacked backside this LRF deserves...

kind regards

Fred

Edited February 11, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Stationary Front]

Blast, yours and Rogers LRF has made for eventful viewing over the winter months. It is a great shame that people 'have a go at you'. Your discusions on the Model Thread are just that...discusions re the models, not the LRF. This should be disected and discussed on March 1st. It's a shame that it creates a problem for some, and indeed cause them to demand 'excuses' or 'get their goat' after all it's only an LRF, and from a moderator to boot. I hope that you carry on producing your LRF's, as I for one enjoy reading them depsite the accuracy/inaccuracy at the end. Maybe folk are venting their frustrations on you, as if you are somehow responsible for the lack of cold/snow etc this month. I don't post much on here, but I feel you are being targeted unneccessarily.

[UV-RAY]

The only thing I've tried to do on the model thread is pick up on specific developments and if it came off or was heading that way I would always add onto a post as per LRF...as this is what stands. Nothing ever overrode the LRF. My Feb update...nothing in the model thread has altered one iota from that...but it could well be wrong. At the end of the day Piers, what comes to stand up to scrutiny is the LRF....nothing else and that is what we are here for?

Sorry if it got your goat, but one thing I have learned is that it isn't worth doing this. And this isn't meant at all as a direct response to you but it is as a general feeling but the bitterness on this site this winter has been woeful...and it just ain't worth it mate....oh OK, well apart from your comments sometimes

It seems odd how posts I made saying that Jan didn't come out as I called it are easily and clearly forgotten. Perceptions? B)

Anyway, I will hang around to see the smacked backside this LRF deserves...

kind regards

Fred

Personally I think it's damn right rude how some have had it in for Fred, regarding his and Roger's LRF. Sure January didn't go to plan and Fred did own up too this. It appears too me that some can make outrageous comments regarding winters over post, whilst posting in a inflammatory manner, yet remain untouchable by the powers that be.

Please don't let this deter you and Roger Fred, keep up the good work!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

And from a moderator, to boot? Am I not allowed a viewpoint because I'm a moderator?!

If Fred wants to be offended by anything I say, then that's fine. For others to do so is a bit odd. Perhaps there are some that think Fred is responsible for the recent lack of snow....nothing would surprise me, but I suspect not. As for frustrations...I think it's been a staggering winter, but there we go.

[geoffw]

true OON ... theres a lot more to life than just cold and snow. i pray we have a hot and thundery summer! so blast we are criticising the forecast, not having a go at you.

chill pal

[Northernlights]

Well as one who did not have to pay inflated prices for agricultural diesel and house oil because of reading your joint winter forecast(I filled both tanks on reading your joint winter forecast before the early winter snow) I would encourage both of you to keep making them!! If late February/ March turns cold and snowy then the early ploughing in late October early November will have paid off too.

[Essan]

Am I right in thinking that the more prozaic (terrestrial) signals have always been leaning towards a milder second half of winter: La Nina, and all that..?

Aye. My prediction of an early Spring was never just down to gut instinct

btw I admire and respect those who issue LRFs - especially detailed ones - but I don't admire or respect those who do not hold their hands up and admit when they are wrong. Not a go at anyone here, just a general observation (Mr Corbyn take note though!!!)

Edited February 11, 2011 by Essan

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

true OON ... theres a lot more to life than just cold and snow. i pray we have a hot and thundery summer! so blast we are criticising the forecast, not having a go at you.

chill pal

Surely not!!!!! Look all I ask is post mortem 1st March went winter is officially over even though it looks over now! !

There's some harsh self criticism to come I can assure you all.

BFTP

Edited February 11, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[icepete]

This is my first post and I think BFTP and Rogers LRF has come in for some unfair criticism, for a forecast issued back in Nov certain parts of it have been very accurate and some parts not so,but here we are in mid feb with the latter part of the forecast having the general trend correct which may or may not happen. Surely some credit should be given for even being this close instead of some of the provocative comments I have read in recent times.I always look forward to your LRF when they come out and I can see that a lot of hard work goes into them and I hope you wont be put off in the future by one or two members on this forum.I don't think excuses are required because they are not warranted,just maybe a review of where the forecast differed to see if you can be even more accurate for future LRF. Keep up the good work and accept you will never please everyone even if you are 90% accurate someone will also find something to moan about.

[snow raven]

Any feedback as to why the forecast for Feb has gone..... well.... pear shaped to say the least? Yeah, yeah, we all know Feb isn't over yet (plenty of straws to clutch for 2 more weeks) but lets face facts, this predition for Feb has no chance of being correct.... surely?

FEBRUARY - 2.0C

A second wave of arctic cold and blocking highs is considered quite likely for February, and the mild spell will probably fade out with some mixed precip storms as retrograde motion sees a Scandinavian high pressure reasserts itself which will link across to Greenland. As the month progresses HP retrogrades to Greenland and southern Scandinavia will be subject to troughing. We could foresee some very cold weather in February as a result of the renewed blocking as the strong initial easterly flow becomes a north and then NE'ly. We're speculating that a very low CET value could be observed in February, perhaps the lowest in recent years (we'll say 2.0 as a conservative estimate but would not be surprised by something quite lower) as to our east will be in the grips of a severe winter. We'll issue some more detailed predictions on snowfall dates in the second half of the winter if the pattern seems to be on course but a generally unstable airflow from over the North Sea is anticipated so periods of heavy snow likely.

[Weather-history]

And from a moderator, to boot? Am I not allowed a viewpoint because I'm a moderator?!

I think the site needs to indicate who are the moderators in their profiles, there is nothing in your profile to indicate you are one or even listed as one.

As for the forecast, I think it has come down to what might have been. There is a block to our NE but just to far away to have total influence.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Any feedback as to why the forecast for Feb has gone..... well.... pear shaped to say the least? Yeah, yeah, we all know Feb isn't over yet (plenty of straws to clutch for 2 more weeks) but lets face facts, this predition for Feb has no chance of being correct.... surely?

FEBRUARY - 2.0C

A second wave of arctic cold and blocking highs is considered quite likely for February, and the mild spell will probably fade out with some mixed precip storms as retrograde motion sees a Scandinavian high pressure reasserts itself which will link across to Greenland. As the month progresses HP retrogrades to Greenland and southern Scandinavia will be subject to troughing. We could foresee some very cold weather in February as a result of the renewed blocking as the strong initial easterly flow becomes a north and then NE'ly. We're speculating that a very low CET value could be observed in February, perhaps the lowest in recent years (we'll say 2.0 as a conservative estimate but would not be surprised by something quite lower) as to our east will be in the grips of a severe winter. We'll issue some more detailed predictions on snowfall dates in the second half of the winter if the pattern seems to be on course but a generally unstable airflow from over the North Sea is anticipated so periods of heavy snow likely.

The Scandi high part is remarkably accurate, it's the retrogression to Greenland that wasn't quite right. And given that this forecast was made two months ago that ain't too bad. No, the thing that irks me on here is not the accuracy or otherwise of LRFs, or even of mid-range forecasts, nor even whether or not those who made the forecasts are happy to accept objective scrutiny in hindsight, it's the strange groupie-like behaviour of quite a few other posters when certain 'untouchables' have their forecasts/posts challenged/criticised. Credit where credit's due, absolutely no argument with that, but equally criticism where criticism is due as well ?