Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[Rollo]

Folks

Time to say that the models although chopping and changing neartime, have picked up on the signal for jet to be south, channel LPs and prolonged cold. Remember 16-23 the date I warned for heavy snow and date record cold challenges. Well day two into the 'hot' zone and its looking naughty. Expect intensity increases of any decent snowfall event and it is no doubt nigh on impossible to pinpoint the 'sweet' zones....I ain't going to try, I'll just stick my synoptic pattern and general setup outlooks.

UKMO really buying into prolonging th cold setup......the ECM will be a hell of a run tonight.....well intersting at least.

BFTP

Now thats what call a prediction-no messing about there and the plain truth is that it appears to be going that way,forget about the will it snow in my area as all areas should eventually get what they want (providing you are a snow lover) well done BFTP.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Now thats what call a prediction-no messing about there and the plain truth is that it appears to be going that way,forget about the will it snow in my area as all areas should eventually get what they want (providing you are a snow lover) well done BFTP.

Thanks Rollo, indeed we have seen how rapidly the models change for locations. Boy its cold this evening!!

Another very early warning....Jan is looking like it will latch onto our colder parameter and the mild sector latter part of the month.... well, not so mild...in fact a freezing month is looking a strong player here. I have mentioned a top 3 winter in last 110 years beckons....I am now confirming that thought. I will say that RJS and I have discussed the possibilty of a pattern so locked in it just won't go away. A heck of a start at least.

BFTP

Edited December 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[geoffw]

bftp why are the met-office forecasting west to northwest winds in their 16 to 30 day when you dont forecast it?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Dec 2010 to Friday 31 Dec 2010:

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at times. Over parts of southern England it may become less cold and the snow may turn to rain at times. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain generally dry. The unsettled, windy and at times wintry weather is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably becoming less cold in the south with temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly falling as rain.

Updated: 1218 on Fri 17 Dec 2010

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UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:

Average temperatures are expected to be below average, and possibly well below average at times in some eastern areas, whilst perhaps returning to normal across Northern Ireland. A continuing risk of sleet and snow in some areas, but a chance of less-cold conditions at times. There is, however, a signal that it will become drier than average for some parts of the UK.

Updated: 2311 on Fri 17 Dec 2010

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Hi Geoff

Have you got a different update to the ones above? The 16-30 update strikes me as covering all angles.

We are different because I do not use the models as an output tool for LRFs. I am only posting what the lunar and solar signal is for the overall pattern.

BFTP

Edited December 18, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[geoffw]

sorry bftp i did not see it had updated at 23.15 i was using the out of date one issued at 12 yesterday but i still see them stating average temperatures for ni. what do you think for northern ireland?

[Catacol]

Met O update today calls for return to near normal temperatures in January. Thus far Fred you have been spot on - even the snow event you called for on 21 Dec looks about right: snow hitting the SW and W tomorrow (Mon) and then further east on Tuesday. I'm impressed.

Your Jan forecast called for continental arctic air for the first half before an atlantic charge mid month for a few days. The Met O, having been in line with this, now seem to see a mid latitude block with presumably warm air being dragged over the top with the jet also looping around the northern edge giving dry, often frosty but average temps. Your forecast indicates easterlies, presumably caused by height rises over Scandy rather than somewhere west of Ireland. Are you still confident in this?

Fascinating watching this unfold. I have become less interested in watching the flip flops of the models in recent days and much more interested in the long term trend-casting that is going on. I continue to hope you have it right - we have not had too much snow in Somerset yet: perhaps 2 to 3 inches where I am at present - but I would very much like to experience a February such as you are predicting.

[Airedalejoe]

Hi chaps.

In view of what the models are now showing are you still sticking with a record breaking cold/snowy winter?

I'm not convinced the current spell will pan out as it's currently showing. I remember a couple of similar spells from years ago where the atlantic air was forecast to push over us but ground to a halt over the country before retreating back westwards and the cold continued!!

Do you still think the bitter weather will continue into and through much of next month?

[Roger J Smith]

Personally, I would put the probabilities like this:

30% winter stays brutally cold with fewer than ten days of significant relief (i.e. CET > 3 C)

50% winter maintains colder than normal CET values and relief periods are relatively short

20% reversal of form to generally milder weather, which then lasts longer than ten days.

In the original plan for the winter forecast, we were concerned about a mid-month reversal in January bringing in quite a strong warming, and as this bitterly cold pattern developed we speculated that this might waste some of its energy breaking down the block. I still think that's the likely outcome, and the same comments apply to 25-27 Dec which may turn out to be a very minor relief period indeed, if at all. Would be looking at 17-20 Jan as a key period where the jet stream might be invigorated from deep trough development on east coast of USA. This is the period of northern max and full moon, which are then separated by 3 days unlike tomorrow's overlap. In past winters, energetic lows have developed at these dates especially when they fall around 20 January which seems to be a bit of a spike in storminess over the Atlantic anyway.

Fred has been the champion of the cold February and I fell in line with that during the preparation of this LRF. Whether you ever get relief in January, or we're looking at a 1683-84 or 1739-40 type winter, remains to be seen. But I've listed my estimates of the relative chances.

By the way, the Dec 20-21 energy peak seems a little downplayed in many timing sectors, storms are generally where they were theorized to be, but some are weaker, for example, the one approaching the UK and also the one in central North America. Speculating that the eclipse may relate to reduction in geomagnetic energy, perhaps a slight angle to set off stronger interference is favoured. This would only apply to full moon, not new moon which is not blocked out. I think there will be some intense storms around the hemisphere peaking on two dates soon, 27-28 Dec and 4-5 Jan.

[disco-barry]

It is what it is basically, it's for all us weather fans who don't really understand whats going on synoptically but Roger always seems to give us a damn good read which we even understand! And some of the time there is even humour in his posts, Now OON often offers us humour but thats it lol

[geoffw]

so roger and fred are you saying the cold wont be severe as your initial forecast?

[Airedalejoe]

Ok, thanks Roger

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

so roger and fred are you saying the cold wont be severe as your initial forecast?

Geoff

Please re read the forecast. Where are you getting that from? It already is in the colder parameters of our thoughts so quite simply....no.

BFTP

[Magadan]

Don't know about the humour police, this thread could use a few laughs.

Readers should understand that while this was posted mid-November, the text was written back in late October or maybe the first of November during that really warm period and I was looking at output showing massive cooling in several waves around late November, 6 and 13 Dec and then the storm period for the full moon 20-21 Dec. What we work with at that long time range is not a series of maps (although we could draw them up) but index values. We just don't have the time or the resources to try to put together maps on a continental scale. Fred has full-time employment and I have more time but a lot of other interests and thirty years of continuous rejection by the authorities in this field. Were that not the case, perhaps a more detailed product would be possible.

The above is just meant to place our forecast and whatever achievement it represents in context. We could do better with more resources. On the other hand, maybe we would have coasted and stopped trying as hard. But to look at specifics like "where's the snow here" questions, in broad general terms, the forecast seems to be verifying, there was a massive cold outbreak, a lot of places got snow, and even on the 6th there was heavy snow in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland (okay, the forecast here is for the UK but I'm out on the same limb in Ireland). Probably it's true to say that the earlier cold was so massive and well-entrenched that a reload around the 6th as suggested in the index values was more of a consolidation, so there wasn't that much of an organized push of cold air moving into most parts of the UK, it was already there (the earlier arrival wasn't surprising but probably if I had tried to do daily forecasts from the research data there might have been a milder interval between late-end of November and now).

I think Fred's on the right track in saying look out for the period before Christmas, because we're seeing fairly consistent model signals of a strong arctic push just before the high energy peak of the 20-21 Dec period, and I know from doing this many years that models don't pick up entirely on energy peaks, so you have to blend the reliable aspects of the models with the more robust aspects of the research data to get an idea of what's coming in ten to fifteen days. If that cold outbreak is a reliable signal, two things come into play. The retrograde index is highest right there, and that implies the Atlantic high being pulled away to the northwest very rapidly. And the energy peak follows, which means that a very plausible outcome would be for an explosive deepening of low pressure that might be hanging around the remnants of the frontal boundary to the southwest. This is going to be a very interesting period for weather watchers in the UK and Ireland, with all the ingredients in place for major winter storm development -- and in a season that has already established that it isn't playing hard to get. Reality always has unforeseen details and wrinkles compared to any theoretical predictive approach like ours, but at least we're seeing the right shape in general through the darkened glass.

And I have to say, it's always encouraging to hear that our efforts have helped somebody plan effectively, that's what this is all about, really.

So mainstream "received wisdom" has rejected your methodology? I'm just wondering, what would it take for you two chaps to get taken more seriously? With wealthy investors making a flight to safety in the form of commodities (esp. grains and other staples for the emerging Asian markets), surely there is a need for this exceptional quality of long range forecasting?

[ZONE 51]

Interesting^ posts.

I have been realising more and more the inportance of LRF , yes its needed anyway for many reasons example: tourism, retail(ordering stock..), and being prepared. Since seeing the distruption with the freeze due to lack of backed up resources,equipment, salt/grit, its made me think just how much we need to know the weather months down the line!

[Magadan]

Disappointed there's no reply to my post yet...

[Roger J Smith]

I think the answer is fairly complex. Fred and I are independent researchers, there is no corporate structure, and we both have full-time situations (employment in his case, not dying in my case). There's a story buried in all this somewhere but it probably gets interwoven with other, less easily defined stories like the politics of the meteorological community in the recent and not so recent past.

I don't know how Fred feels, but I feel like I am sleepwalking to some unknown end point of an entirely irrational life journey in which I simultaneously proved a difficult to accept theory and got ostracized by the mainstream and found all sorts of fulfilment in life anyway. I should be a character in a Samuel Beckett novel rather than an actual living human being, perhaps.

Anyway, the forecast is what it is. And so is the situation. We are, of course, free to do our own investing. I just made a hundred bucks on a weather bet. I'm not destitute, but I'm tired of knocking on doors that cannot be opened. It's for a younger person now, I am more concerned with getting all the data and theoretical files in order, so that I can leave them to the appropriate people in a few years (maximum). I don't plan to be doing this after about 2013.

[paul tall]

There was another character on here years ago, who used to base forecasts on moon phases etc, Ken Ring I think he was called, and I am now ashamed to say I laughed at him. Is there any similarity between you and he, have you heard of him?

[The PIT]

The Dec forecast bar the cold is effectively bust which everybody misjudged here over severity. I do need reminding whether the 13th snow event turned up or not. I'm pretty sure it didn't. All eyes on Jan.

Interesting GP's thoughts and Blasts and Rodger seem pretty similar for Jan while CFS goes for mild on the last run.

Edited December 23, 2010 by The PIT

[Magadan]

The Dec forecast bar the cold is effectively bust which everybody misjudged here over severity. I do need reminding whether the 13th snow event turned up or not. I'm pretty sure it didn't. All eyes on Jan.

Interesting GP's thoughts and Blasts and Rodger seem pretty similar for Jan while CFS goes for mild on the last run.

Speak for your own back yard, was not the case here.

[Snowyowl9]

Pit I read you post last night on the model thread there was going to be sleet or freezing rain

I said a snowy breakdown then freezing rain this is as far as I`m looking,I`m actually surprised how much snow is shown on GFS charts,as it`s the first time I`ve looked for next week.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/108_30.gif

Still very cold into holiday tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Those SE-lys are looking strong too.

The first time I read about this winter by BFTP was one between 2008/09 and last year.

GP said inversions cold high a winter like 1976.

So far this winter has exceeded even 1981,with november`s exceptional end/beginning of december.

Just think if we could get bitter air from the east like feb 1991 or Jan 1987.

[The PIT]

Pit I read you post last night on the model thread there was going to be sleet or freezing rain

I said a snowy breakdown then freezing rain this is as far as I`m looking,I`m actually surprised how much snow is shown on GFS charts,as it`s the first time I`ve looked for next week.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/108_30.gif

Still very cold into holiday tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Those SE-lys are looking strong too.

The first time I read about this winter by BFTP was one between 2008/09 and last year.

GP said inversions cold high a winter like 1976.

So far this winter has exceeded even 1981,with november`s exceptional end/beginning of december.

Just think if we could get bitter air from the east like feb 1991 or Jan 1987.

Well at the moment I think the models are at a loss and are struggling what pattern to pick up. Now hints of a scandi high forming.

Going back to the forecast I've just checked and the 13th was a "mild spell" so basically bar the over all cold the forecast is bust however people will read into it what they want. It's not a criticism just an observation. Overall a much better jobby than last year. So next year who knows.

Edited December 23, 2010 by The PIT

[Catacol]

Well at the moment I think the models are at a loss and are struggling what pattern to pick up. Now hints of a scandi high forming.

Going back to the forecast I've just checked and the 13th was a "mild spell" so basically bar the over all cold the forecast is bust however people will read into it what they want. It's not a criticism just an observation. Overall a much better jobby than last year. So next year who knows.

By "bust" you mean wrong I presume?

Not sure how you can back that up. This Dec forecast was released way out beyond FI on the models. It picked up the pattern spot on, got the swiftly retrogressing GH spot on(which was part of the forecast update), picked the snow that stranded a good few in Scotland on the 5th, picked the developing low on the 21st pushing up from the SW (but got the track a bit too far south), seems to have picked the HP that is going to largely sit over us over the Xmas weekend and again on towards the NY (if the models are to be believed) and as far as I can see only missed on the 12th/13th.

That's pretty good in my book. If you are looking for long term accuracy to within 50 miles or 24 hours then I would suggest you are going to be waiting a very long time.

I, for one, have been impressed by the forecast. Have not read any other out there which was more accurate.

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks, the snow event for around the 13th, was shunted into Holland and Germany by the weak warming episode. I believe the forecast has captured the large-scale pattern quite well considering the range of alternatives at random from early November (and actually we had this discussed back in October) ... the finer details can always use more work ... what I have observed and checked back on would be something like this. Retrogression has been considerable in the background of the month's day to day changes. Even during retrogression, some prograde energy tries to keep going, it's something like a swamped canoe going down the rapids, pops up then disappears sort of thing.

Meanwhile, the milder bubble of high pressure around 11th-13th has played out as part one of an expected two-part retrograde high episode, it became more detached from the large-scale trough and temporarily changed the circulation to deliver a slight warming for three or four days. The next episode may be trying to compete with a vigorous short wave with chaotic results. This sort of thing is hard to model even on the 96h time scale as we can see from the short term models. Whatever happens with this battleground period, the most likely "next phase" is further retrograde high pressure on a somewhat more northerly track than the last episode. That's because the external driver, an interference pattern in the magnetic field, has shifted north. That shift will end around 31 Dec - 1 Jan meaning that as long as further retrograde highs build west, they are likely to start creeping back south again, although the external drivers will be then competing with seasonal lifting of the grid.

There was also an "issue" with the severity of storminess around the full moon. It seemed that in reality, a large upper low forced the jet further south and the severity of short waves was then seen more across Iberia and the Med. Although the resultant maps were similar to what we had in mind, the meso-scale lows close to the PV were less energetic, although some places did get a lot of snow, notably Dublin which can't turn the snow machine off. There was also the heavy snowfall in northern France last Sunday.

Anyway, we are not about to leap to our deaths over this forecast, let's put it that way.

[Bristawl Si]

Thanks, the snow event for around the 13th, was shunted into Holland and Germany by the weak warming episode. I believe the forecast has captured the large-scale pattern quite well considering the range of alternatives at random from early November (and actually we had this discussed back in October) ... the finer details can always use more work ... what I have observed and checked back on would be something like this. Retrogression has been considerable in the background of the month's day to day changes. Even during retrogression, some prograde energy tries to keep going, it's something like a swamped canoe going down the rapids, pops up then disappears sort of thing.

Meanwhile, the milder bubble of high pressure around 11th-13th has played out as part one of an expected two-part retrograde high episode, it became more detached from the large-scale trough and temporarily changed the circulation to deliver a slight warming for three or four days. The next episode may be trying to compete with a vigorous short wave with chaotic results. This sort of thing is hard to model even on the 96h time scale as we can see from the short term models. Whatever happens with this battleground period, the most likely "next phase" is further retrograde high pressure on a somewhat more northerly track than the last episode. That's because the external driver, an interference pattern in the magnetic field, has shifted north. That shift will end around 31 Dec - 1 Jan meaning that as long as further retrograde highs build west, they are likely to start creeping back south again, although the external drivers will be then competing with seasonal lifting of the grid.

There was also an "issue" with the severity of storminess around the full moon. It seemed that in reality, a large upper low forced the jet further south and the severity of short waves was then seen more across Iberia and the Med. Although the resultant maps were similar to what we had in mind, the meso-scale lows close to the PV were less energetic, although some places did get a lot of snow, notably Dublin which can't turn the snow machine off. There was also the heavy snowfall in northern France last Sunday.

Anyway, we are not about to leap to our deaths over this forecast, let's put it that way.

Well in the main Roger i think you and BFTP got things pretty well forecasted for December, bar the absence of a couple of major storms - must admit i was really looking forward to a real blizzard, maybe from a true channel low.

Do your thoughts for Jan and Feb remain as per the LRF?

[Magadan]

I think the answer is fairly complex. Fred and I are independent researchers, there is no corporate structure, and we both have full-time situations (employment in his case, not dying in my case). There's a story buried in all this somewhere but it probably gets interwoven with other, less easily defined stories like the politics of the meteorological community in the recent and not so recent past.

I don't know how Fred feels, but I feel like I am sleepwalking to some unknown end point of an entirely irrational life journey in which I simultaneously proved a difficult to accept theory and got ostracized by the mainstream and found all sorts of fulfilment in life anyway. I should be a character in a Samuel Beckett novel rather than an actual living human being, perhaps.

Anyway, the forecast is what it is. And so is the situation. We are, of course, free to do our own investing. I just made a hundred bucks on a weather bet. I'm not destitute, but I'm tired of knocking on doors that cannot be opened. It's for a younger person now, I am more concerned with getting all the data and theoretical files in order, so that I can leave them to the appropriate people in a few years (maximum). I don't plan to be doing this after about 2013.

Only addressing this now - busy with a nasty baby. All I'm thinking is, now that Asia wants to eat meat and has a growing economy to pay for it, and as a result there is a new and rapidly growing commodities bubble, your level of seasonal trend forecasting - which frankly has blown me away with its accuracy this year - would be worth its weight in gold to these people. But you can't get it to market because mainstream prefers to faff about with computer models using dumbed down non-linear equations fed with erratic and inconsistent data. Well, the winter still has a fair bit to run and I'll be watching this closely, but for now I can tentatively say this offers the prospect of the best agricultural grade LRF available to anyone anywhere from what I've seen and that means you should be able to capitalise on that. That's me speaking as a "rain-maker" for regulated and non-regulated investment syndicates / funds in the UK, albeit my field is property rather than new / innovative weather forecasting techniques!