Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[mcweather]

give it up blast ... your feb forecast is totally WRONG!!!

Hi Geoff you really seem to have it in for BFTP AND RJS.

If you actually read the feb forecast it doesn't say that at midnight on feb 1st a Siberian hell will descend it says that the mild weather will probably drain away and be replaced by northerly blocking. It may or may not come off, that is yet to be seen

Unless you have some kind of crystal ball and already know what the february weather is going to be through out the month then its probably at least polite to let feb get well underway before writing off the forecast. LRF'S can only be relatively broadbrush and in that sense of getting general weather type and approximate timing I think bftp and rjs have done pretty well so far.

[damianslaw]

I wouldn't write off Rjs and Bftp's forecast for Feb just yet. We have a week still to go and their forecast for Dec and Jan in the main has been preety good. Admittedly there timing of the atlantic spell in Jan was a little out, but there forecast for easterlies to return later in Jan has been correct.

Whilst we are not going to see a 'strong easterly' in the coming days as there forecast suggests, we are at least seeing winds from the east so there forecast has done very well on this score.

If people read the forecast it suggests northern blocking will gradually build through the month of feb and it suggests the second half will be the colder possibly snowier half of the month as we see scandi developing.

Rjs and Bftp did state they would provide some dates of snow in Feb if it appears there forecast looks like verifying. Will be interesting to see if they do this or not, if they do obviously they remain confident of their forecast. If they don't I'd be expecting an explanation..

Edited January 25, 2011 by damianslaw

[Snow Queen one]

give it up blast ... your feb forecast is totally WRONG!!!

At least they have been more accurate than some and unless you feel you know better than they do then do not dismiss what they say. As another poster said you are being in polite with your comments as Feb has not even started yet so how can they be wrong?

The nice thing about our weather is that it is unpredictable and anything can happen in such a short time.

You add no valid comments to this thread with your one liners.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

give it up blast ... your feb forecast is totally WRONG!!!

Please forgive me I didn't realise that January FOLLOWED February....Yes then we must be totally wrong.

BFTP

[Backtrack]

give it up blast ... your feb forecast is totally WRONG!!!

I'd like to see you attempt a forecast like BFTP's and RJS

Instead of telling him he's wrong, why don't you thank him for an excellent forecast and wish him good luck for his February forecast and see how it pans out?

Personally I feel February will be a cold month. The PV is already starting to split. All we need now is some height rises over Greenland and this high to go away.

IMO, his forecast will be bang on.

Edited January 26, 2011 by Backtrack

[geoffw]

sure thing guys ... im using reverse psychology. i love bitter cold, truth be told id love fred to be right

Edited January 26, 2011 by geoffw

[Daniel Miller]

give it up blast ... your feb forecast is totally WRONG!!!

You're a clever one aren't you... How do the months go again? February, January, March? He has been v. good with his forecast so far saying January to be the warmest month with the least potential. A severe event around December 21st, which happened so what is to say he will be wrong with February?

[alijoe]

Well even if the weather forecast does not prove to be correct, I have thoroghly enjoyed reading them and can I say that BFTP I have watched your posts in the model output and may I congratulate you in how you present yourself, views and even when people are being damn right rude, you just rise above it and to me you outshine them. Please even if Feb does not go quite to plan, please keep up the good work as I think your both brilliant and NO that is not just because I love the snow, I like all weather (apart from rain rain rain).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

sure thing guys ... im using reverse psychology. i love bitter cold, truth be told id love fred to be right

Maybe I should try some of that!!! Maybe more to update in next day or two. This current cold blast isn't the deal, is it the trigger? It seems that we have a mobile set up to contend with first...and an interesting period end of month into early Feb for the UK for sure.

BFTP

Edited January 27, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mcweather]

Hi BFTP.

In the midst of all the zonal gloom, I think the longer range models namely the gfs and cfs are now starting to pick up on your proposed cold spell for feb albeit the second half of Feb. Todays 06zz gfs for instance has numerous runs building heights very favourably to the north east. It might be a little later than you thought but I think your feb wintry spell may well still come off. Keep the faith.

Edited January 29, 2011 by mcweather

[mountain shadow]

Hi BFTP.

In the midst of all the zonal gloom, I think the longer range models namely the gfs and cfs are now starting to pick up on your proposed cold spell for feb albeit the second half of Feb. Todays 06zz gfs for instance has numerous runs building heights very favourably to the north east. It might be a little later than you thought but I think your feb wintry spell may well still come off. Keep the faith.

You must be looking at different charts from me, as the output at the moment for snowy cold is as bad as I've seen in the past three winters.

Whilst i appreciate the effort which has gone into this forecast, it is clear that the forecast has become poorer from the date from when it was posted, which is logical and more likely.

[lukemc]

You must be looking at different charts from me, as the output at the moment for snowy cold is as bad as I've seen in the past three winters.

Whilst i appreciate the effort which has gone into this forecast, it is clear that the forecast has become poorer from the date from when it was posted, which is logical and more likely.

So would you really think that the charts we are seeing at the moment are the worst charts we have seen from a cold and snow perspective since probably January 2008? I would disagree as we did have a mild period in the second half of February 2009 after the cold spell when everyone was unhappy about the predictied Stratopheric Warming not coming to fruition. The thing that puzzles me is that we are in a cold spell at the moment but people are going on about "dire" or "dismal" charts for cold! In fact the cold spell that we have at the moment would be considered very good in a pre 2008 "even larger teapot" - if it was in a winter like 2006/07 it probably would be the coldest spell of the entire winter! I think some people are having an anti climax from an amazing December and that is why the charts looks so bad - maybe they are not as bad from a cold lovers pov than a lot of people make them out to be.

Anyway I think that late February - early March could end up being cold or very cold do you think we could even end up with a record cold first half to March it is possible but a March similar to 2006 would be nice so don't give up hope for cold and snow just yet.

Luke

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quick update from me on coming month. This active period looks likely to dominate certainly for first half with half hearted/transient ridges bringing mixed bag of very stormy, cold and milder periods. Scvandinavian block will attempt to dominate from around mid month but will be subject to further Atlantic assault before one of the LPs becomes a SE slider and a bitter cold E to NE flow develops into last third and lasts into early March. Second half of Feb colder than first half with last 3rd looking very wintry. Peak energy period under new moon a lot stronger than anticipated by me and longer lasting but still a v strong signal for retrogression to increase as month goes on and for jetstream to dive well south latter half of the month. As per RJS thoughts no early Spring as cold push in latter part of Feb into early March the second real cold shot of the winter.

That's all from me for some considerable time, lots possibly still to look forward to.

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

Quick update from me on coming month. This active period looks likely to dominate certainly for first half with half hearted/transient ridges bringing mixed bag of very stormy, cold and milder periods. Scvandinavian block will attempt to dominate from around mid month but will be subject to further Atlantic assault before one of the LPs becomes a SE slider and a bitter cold E to NE flow develops into last third and lasts into early March. Second half of Feb colder than first half with last 3rd looking very wintry. Peak energy period under new moon a lot stronger than anticipated by me and longer lasting but still a v strong signal for retrogression to increase as month goes on and for jetstream to dive well south latter half of the month. As per RJS thoughts no early Spring as cold push in latter part of Feb into early March the second real cold shot of the winter.

That's all from me for some considerable time, lots possibly still to look forward to.

BFTP

Interesting thoughts there Blast.

A serious Q from me - this is in no way a dig - do you feel your initial thoughts re Feb are basically put back 10 days or so then? You seemed quite confident of a return to cold via a Scandy High, about 10 days ago, for early Feb

Regards BB

[snow raven]

Interesting thoughts there Blast.

A serious Q from me - this is in no way a dig - do you feel your initial thoughts re Feb are basically put back 10 days or so then? You seemed quite confident of a return to cold via a Scandy High, about 10 days ago, for early Feb

Regards BB

It does seem that way - bit of straw clutching is springing to mind?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting thoughts there Blast.

A serious Q from me - this is in no way a dig - do you feel your initial thoughts re Feb are basically put back 10 days or so then? You seemed quite confident of a return to cold via a Scandy High, about 10 days ago, for early Feb

Regards BB

Sorry for belated reply but I will be only very fleetingly be on this site, yes the cold [if it comes back] is and always will be from a Scandi HP, initially at least but week to 10 days later. Looking at how cold December seemed it could be I believed that the peak energy signals would not override or be long lasting compared to an overrall cold theme thus I 'encouraged' RJS to agree on an earlier return to cold with this week being the signs/beginnings of that happening. During our discussions RJS theory showed there to be strong signal for retrogression but only from around mid week of Feb 10-15 say onwards where the signal strengthened as the month went on into March. So it was a wrong call in the forecast [mainly by me] 2 1/2 months ago but the essence remains...Scandi HP to develop retrograding from Russia and extending onto greenland. What we are now seeing funnily enough since my previous post are models begiining to latch onto a Scandi HP developing in FI....but thats FI so we'll see how it pans out. And no its not straw clutching at all just acknowledgement of wrong timing by me. Some scoff at this development but it has a very good chance of happening and models will pick up on the signal even more as they seem to be doing now. Latter half of Feb 'could' end up in very cold category.

BFTP

Edited February 3, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bristawl Si]

Sorry for belated reply but I will be only very fleetingly be on this site, yes the cold [if it comes back] is and always will be from a Scandi HP, initially at least but week to 10 days later. Looking at how cold December seemed it could be I believed that the peak energy signals would not override or be long lasting compared to an overrall cold theme thus I 'encouraged' RJS to agree on an earlier return to cold with this week being the signs/beginnings of that happening. During our discussions RJS theory showed there to be strong signal for retrogression but only from around mid week of Feb 10-15 say onwards where the signal strengthened as the month went on into March. So it was a wrong call in the forecast [mainly by me] 2 1/2 months ago but the essence remains...Scandi HP to develop retrograding from Russia and extending onto greenland. What we are now seeing funnily enough since my previous post are models begiining to latch onto a Scandi HP developing in FI....but thats FI so we'll see how it pans out. And no its not straw clutching at all just acknowledgement of wrong timing by me. Some scoff at this development but it has a very good chance of happening and models will pick up on the signal even more as they seem to be doing now. Latter half of Feb 'could' end up in very cold category.

BFTP

Cheers - and right on cue the ECM this eve seems to be showing such a signal for a week or so ahead.

[yamkin]

Cheers - and right on cue the ECM this eve seems to be showing such a signal for a week or so ahead.

ECM picked up on this a few days ago, then the GFS starting showing this trend the following day.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM picked up on this a few days ago, then the GFS starting showing this trend the following day.

We have to take small steps, ECM showed good signs for last week of jan too...we had an easterly but then it got flattened.

BFTP

[yamkin]

We have to take small steps, ECM showed good signs for last week of jan too...we had an easterly but then it got flattened.

BFTP

Croydon Council were told a few days ago that it WILL turn much colder by the middle of February. I'm also hearing that some European Countries are also gearing up for the same scenario.

[Guest mycroft]

Croydon Council were told a few days ago that it WILL turn much colder by the middle of February. I'm also hearing that some European Countries are also gearing up for the same scenario.

Yamkin

Do you know "who" told Croydon Council this? following the Harribin debarcle i'd bet it's not the Met!

even they can not be that stupid as to shoot themselves in the foot twice..can they?

[yamkin]

Yamkin

Do you know "who" told Croydon Council this? following the Harribin debarcle i'd bet it's not the Met!

even they can not be that stupid as to shoot themselves in the foot twice..can they?

Croydon Council is a paying customer of the MetO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Croydon Council is a paying customer of the MetO.

Will they use more grit this time if it happens? They clearly have been warned. Roads were terrible in December?

More models picking up the signal now of retrogression and an end to zoneality. Small steps in the right direction.

BFTP

[yamkin]

Will they use more grit this time if it happens? They clearly have been warned. Roads were terrible in December?

More models picking up the signal now of retrogression and an end to zoneality. Small steps in the right direction.

BFTP

Grit/Salt out of my hands, but the top dogs there ALL know that we are in for a very cold period from the 14th Feb give or take a day here and there Latest memo is going for a much colder period from mid Feb :cold:

Edited February 7, 2011 by yamkin

[snow raven]

Grit/Salt out of my hands, but the top dogs there ALL know that we are in for a very cold period from the 14th Feb give or take a day here and there Latest memo is going for a much colder period from mid Feb :cold:

Who are the 'top dogs' Yamkin?