Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[paul tall]

Yes very impressive.

[ZONE 51]

Yes its all happening!

GP's forecast is exact as the models! what i see is the forecast atlantic block spot on in place and a mostly dry december? i mean the atlantic lows are not moving in nor anything from the south? am i right here as its what i see?

Edited December 6, 2010 by nimbilus

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A little message from little ol me......get Christmas shopping done, get any long distance travel out of the way because 16-23 will see punishing winter weather returning which is likely to continue to well into 2011. This is a stand up warning

BFTP

[MattS]

A little message from little ol me......get Christmas shopping done, get any long distance travel out of the way because 16-23 will see punishing winter weather returning which is likely to continue to well into 2011. This is a stand up warning

BFTP

WOW! Can't believe i have read this before!? Thats one frozen winter in prospect! Belated thanks BFTP and RJS for putting this together. Looks like you've got the start pretty much spot on! Very interesting to see the La Nina pattern almost being almost overwritten by the persistent northern blocking and a more southerly tracking jet. This winter could well trundle on. Good luck for the rest of the winter guys!

Looking forward to the imminent phase 2...

[Great Plum]

Bftp... I am heeding yours and others advice... The final bits of Christmas shopping are to be done on Thursday, the cards sent tomorrow... I can see this being quite severe!

[Northernlights]

Thanks for the warning. Another lorry load of cattle food delivered today just on the evidence of the last few days models and your winter forecast so enough now in store for 2 months. Bought 6 torch batteries insted of the usual 2 when out last week and doing the same to almost all shopping which can be stored for few months just in case. New freezer getting loaded up after the old one stopped working during a power cut a week ago at 46 years old!!!!.

[Airedalejoe]

See my comment from this morning has been deleted. Do we have the no sense of humour Police patrolling this site?

[Jayces]

What happened to the snow forecast on the 6th?

[Roger J Smith]

Don't know about the humour police, this thread could use a few laughs.

Readers should understand that while this was posted mid-November, the text was written back in late October or maybe the first of November during that really warm period and I was looking at output showing massive cooling in several waves around late November, 6 and 13 Dec and then the storm period for the full moon 20-21 Dec. What we work with at that long time range is not a series of maps (although we could draw them up) but index values. We just don't have the time or the resources to try to put together maps on a continental scale. Fred has full-time employment and I have more time but a lot of other interests and thirty years of continuous rejection by the authorities in this field. Were that not the case, perhaps a more detailed product would be possible.

The above is just meant to place our forecast and whatever achievement it represents in context. We could do better with more resources. On the other hand, maybe we would have coasted and stopped trying as hard. But to look at specifics like "where's the snow here" questions, in broad general terms, the forecast seems to be verifying, there was a massive cold outbreak, a lot of places got snow, and even on the 6th there was heavy snow in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland (okay, the forecast here is for the UK but I'm out on the same limb in Ireland). Probably it's true to say that the earlier cold was so massive and well-entrenched that a reload around the 6th as suggested in the index values was more of a consolidation, so there wasn't that much of an organized push of cold air moving into most parts of the UK, it was already there (the earlier arrival wasn't surprising but probably if I had tried to do daily forecasts from the research data there might have been a milder interval between late-end of November and now).

I think Fred's on the right track in saying look out for the period before Christmas, because we're seeing fairly consistent model signals of a strong arctic push just before the high energy peak of the 20-21 Dec period, and I know from doing this many years that models don't pick up entirely on energy peaks, so you have to blend the reliable aspects of the models with the more robust aspects of the research data to get an idea of what's coming in ten to fifteen days. If that cold outbreak is a reliable signal, two things come into play. The retrograde index is highest right there, and that implies the Atlantic high being pulled away to the northwest very rapidly. And the energy peak follows, which means that a very plausible outcome would be for an explosive deepening of low pressure that might be hanging around the remnants of the frontal boundary to the southwest. This is going to be a very interesting period for weather watchers in the UK and Ireland, with all the ingredients in place for major winter storm development -- and in a season that has already established that it isn't playing hard to get. Reality always has unforeseen details and wrinkles compared to any theoretical predictive approach like ours, but at least we're seeing the right shape in general through the darkened glass.

And I have to say, it's always encouraging to hear that our efforts have helped somebody plan effectively, that's what this is all about, really.

[Northernlights]

Thanks for the warning. Another lorry load of cattle food delivered today just on the evidence of the last few days models and your winter forecast so enough now in store for 2 months. Bought 6 torch batteries insted of the usual 2 when out last week and doing the same to almost all shopping which can be stored for few months just in case. New freezer getting loaded up after the old one stopped working during a power cut a week ago at 46 years old!!!!.

Just to add there is a financial benefit to being a weather nut,when I filled the tractor diesel tank and house oil tank about 4 weeks ago on the basis of emerging winter forecasts it was about 47p/litre,today it is about 73p/litre depending on where you get the quote. Old chest freezer was bought on the assumption that you maybe had 4-5 weeks in some of the winters of the fifties when getting out for supplies was difficult so you needed backup. New one slightly larger chest freezer has been bought on the same assumption given the cooling trend we have been seeing in recent winters.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What happened to the snow forecast on the 6th?

I work in South Norwood, you haven't done badly have you? I'll put a call in to ensure no more comes to South Norwood and that is all stays in Upper Norwood...or Thornton Heath :lol:

Local falls and indeed regional falls require preciseness and lots of time to pinpoint as Roger says so generalisation is the only reasonable way forward at present. Like I said I will put out particular dates in addition to forecast if I see a strong indicator that is worthy of mentioning. Hence the deep cold potential for period mentioned

BFTP

[geoffw]

hi could you blast or roger confirm your forecast for janruary? as in depth of cold, precipitation etc. please thanks?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

hi could you blast or roger confirm your forecast for janruary? as in depth of cold, precipitation etc. please thanks?

A continuance of the next 2-3 weeks as a general theme with potential breakdown to much milder conditions second half to last 3rd.

BFTP

[geoffw]

and then februrary would be back in the 'freezer'?

[Roger J Smith]

Let the good times roll ... this evolution of a polar vortex dropping south to meet up with the strong energy peak of full moon (21 Dec 08z) at northern max and with the retrograde index at peak ... this could be a winter set-up long remembered and I am growing more concerned about the potential for the entire winter to be severely cold with the advertised milder periods subdued if not aborted to snowfall events.

I think we both work off index values meaning that our forecasts are based largely on analogues informed by what we think might be the relative strength of signals. The low solar activity signal is clearly playing louder than anything else in the orchestra, and so far looking at both Europe and North America I have to say that this winter reveals the weaknesses of the ENSO based forecast approach, not because there's something flawed with the science, but because we've known all along that there are different kinds of La Nina (or El Nino) patterns and that they don't totally dominate other signals.

The index values suggest a relaxation of cold in later January but we decided at the start to call for a cold first half and a subdued warming. That quoted value of 3.0 for the CET, while cold by recent standards, may now be a bit high if not way too high. If anyone is concerned about planning or anticipating fuel use etc, I would say go with something closer to 1.5 C to be safe, the December forecast is clearly going to be somewhat conservative although in my mind, 2.8 C was a pretty gutsy call during that warm spell in early November. A quick check of the CET monthly forecast contest will reveal two things, first that I adjusted to 0.8 C on seeing the depth of initial cold, and secondly, that many people are still in denial about how cold winter can be.

As to the BFTP-inspired very cold February, I have very few remaining doubts about that seeing the way the Baltic is about to freeze, and the North Sea is almost as cold as it was in Feb last winter already. These building blocks are forming a wall against the Atlantic that even a normal year might find hard to knock down, and this year's Atlantic is sort of like the West Ham United of zonal flow patterns (sorry, Hammers).

Will it be a winter for the ages like 62-63? Certainly the first half is likely to be regarded in those terms. I think we are in with a shout for such an outcome.

Meanwhile, this upcoming energy peak -- keep your eyes on the Channel -- and the timing of 08z 21 December for the peak of energy. The models seem to have a moderately good grasp on current developments, but a bit of extra spice may appear in this stew before serving.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The low solar activity signal is clearly playing louder than anything else in the orchestra, and so far looking at both Europe and North America I have to say that this winter reveals the weaknesses of the ENSO based forecast approach, not because there's something flawed with the science, but because we've known all along that there are different kinds of La Nina (or El Nino) patterns and that they don't totally dominate other signals.

Hi Roger, I agree completely about the low Solar activity signal playing the loudest, but my opinion is that this is the "hangover" from 2 years ago, we probably have another 1-2 years of this left before we start climbing, (if that's what you want to call it) to the higher level that the sun is now displaying. 2009 was a very quiet year, and even this year is subdued, I think the 10.7 flux is sticking around the mid 80's, only having crossed to 100 barrier once this year, I would be interested in your take on whether you build a lag in your forecasting or whether you go by the current year?

Also, did I pick up somewhere that a "Pineapple Express" was going to hit California? If that is the case, it shows exactly what you mean about different types of El Nino's and La Nina's

Edited December 15, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[SteveB]

The strat guys are painting a very bleak picture, with the vortex setting up shop in its usual place.

I assume they are going for a mild Jan if thats the case.

I must admit I have more faith in you guys, purely becuase I think you can through away the even larger teapot rule book now

Edited December 15, 2010 by SteveB

[Weather-history]

Both of you (Blast and Roger) seem very confident about this, not sure I could be so confident giving such a forecast. Too many variables for me.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Both of you (Blast and Roger) seem very confident about this, not sure I could be so confident giving such a forecast. Too many variables for me.

reminds me of that other thread "Better than the Models".

But yes Mr D, I agree a huge number of variables, I doubt if you need every one in place, but chaos theory etc, little changes now lead to huge changes down the road.

And as SteveB says, the Strat guys are talking of a reversion to the norm, so that would be a mild January.

Me? I think the solar cycle plays a much bigger part than we think (empirical evidence mainly), so will be colder than usual for this year and a few more to come

Edited December 15, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What I will say about the stratosphere is that its like the ENSO signal. It has a part to play but it does not decide where blocking or PV actually sets up. Winter 08/09 is a very good example of no high latitude blocking but no blow torch conditions. The solar cycle and lunar cycle have set the jetstream on a southerly course...a longterm southerly course and we are and have been seeing the consequences of this. This current set up we see approaching isn't [particularly in our view] a wild guess from us....it is what we see being the responses to such influences on the atmosphere.

We may be wrong down the line, we may be right....but a heck of a start...and as Roger says towards the lower end of our parameters. The blocking looks very strong and seems to be just re-inforcing itself.

BFTP

[Catacol]

What I will say about the stratosphere is that its like the ENSO signal. It has a part to play but it does not decide where blocking or PV actually sets up. Winter 08/09 is a very good example of no high latitude blocking but no blow torch conditions. The solar cycle and lunar cycle have set the jetstream on a southerly course...a longterm southerly course and we are and have been seeing the consequences of this. This current set up we see approaching isn't [particularly in our view] a wild guess from us....it is what we see being the responses to such influences on the atmosphere.

We may be wrong down the line, we may be right....but a heck of a start...and as Roger says towards the lower end of our parameters. The blocking looks very strong and seems to be just re-inforcing itself.

BFTP

Evening Fred

Well one thing is for sure - 21/22 Dec is a crucial point. You flagged it up weeks ago as a key moment in Dec; the models are now picking it up as the key point that will determine the next pattern. If the low being modelled does not undercut the block, and instead plows straight through it on a NE tack then it will blow holes in this forecast.

I am a quiet lover of cold and hope that does not happen... I am very lacking in knowledge as to how models are programmed, but I am hoping against hope that they have indeed been adjusted and tweaked over the last 10-15 years to understand weather in the "modern" era - ie low pressures rule the roost and blocking highs and cold are only there to be merrily batted out of the way.

If your forecast comes off for the 22nd - and I am rooting for you - then I would suggest it is a turning point for the whole winter. Undoubtedly the models are struggling with it - not every run is seeing the mild air win out, but tonight there seems to be some consistency as to the prediction at 144 hours across the board, namely that the cold will be pushed aside.

Fascinating times... you must be shaking in your shoes waiting to see what Tues-Thurs will bring!

Edited December 16, 2010 by Catacol_Highlander

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Evening Fred

Fascinating times... you must be shaking in your shoes waiting to see what Tues-Thurs will bring!

No, why should I worry about the models at T144?

BFTP

[ZONE 51]

Where the jet stream is now far far south is it further than the point it reached last winter? their getting damage from the lows i read in news.

[Roger J Smith]

The more active storm track has been consistently south of the Azores and north of Madeira through southern Spain and the Med towards the Black Sea. The arctic branch has been dropping south to the west of the U.K. and phasing with this subtropical jet near the Azores or at least northwest of Portugal. The GFS doesn't like this and keeps trying to change it back to a more normal track, and keeps failing.

Even this coming weekend, the models are divergent on evolution and track. We feel that our research model has about the most likely solution, a strong low forming WSW of Ireland and moving east or east-northeast into the Channel, perhaps grazing south coast ... which would spread a blizzard-like snowstorm across large parts of Ireland and the U.K. over the weekend. The GFS looks too far north and thus involves too much warm air advection, but even so, the 00z run is less aggressive with warming at several points than the 18z was.

Full moon (and N Max) occur 08z 21 December.

This situation with the PV dropping south then southwest to reach Ireland, -44 at 500 mb, jet stream blasting across central Greenland southeast to near Bordeaux -- all very unusual stuff, models are probably quite challenged to resolve it all.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Folks

Time to say that the models although chopping and changing neartime, have picked up on the signal for jet to be south, channel LPs and prolonged cold. Remember 16-23 the date I warned for heavy snow and date record cold challenges. Well day two into the 'hot' zone and its looking naughty. Expect intensity increases of any decent snowfall event and it is no doubt nigh on impossible to pinpoint the 'sweet' zones....I ain't going to try, I'll just stick my synoptic pattern and general setup outlooks.

UKMO really buying into prolonging th cold setup......the ECM will be a hell of a run tonight.....well intersting at least.

In the longer term I am very interested in the models showing the increased pressure to the NE...tentative signs of the Siberain HP wanting to play ball during this winter? An area to watch!!!

BFTP

Edited December 17, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST