Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[stormforce 10]

great forecast guys. hope it comes of.

Thanks for the LRF boys. So want this to happen

What do you mean by FRIGID temps though?

frigid temps= bitter cold!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well done, Roger and Fred, tremendous amount of work put in there, with a lot of detail. So hope your LRF is correct.

I have to say, I'm very concerned about the strengthening La Nina this winter (mind you I said the same about El Nino last year!), with a strong northern arm to the jet and the polar vortex setting up close to Greenland, blocking to our NW, N, NE could be very hard to come by. Dare I say it, we might well have to make do with "faux cold" scenarios, courtesy of mid-latitude highs that wander across us this winter.

Anyway, I wasnt christened Thomas for nothing, doubtings' my game!

Well done again and please be right. I'll buy you both a snowball!

Regards,

Tom.

Indeed you answered some of your questions above, last year's El Nino did NOT behave as we became accustomed to, La Nina behaviour is not set in stone either . We believe the jetstream has shifted south 'generally' and that is a big part in setting out how we think things may pan out. There is strong retrograde signal this winter too and earlier than last year. Re PV setting up, look at winter 08/09...no northern blocking to speak of yet decent cold periods were had as the jet was on southward journey.

We can only call what we 'see'. Other forecasts are respected none moreso than GP and only time will tell.

Faux cold? For Faux sake.....no we foresee 'proper' cold.

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[AderynCoch]

Interesting stuff. I too would happily say "deal" right now to this forecast, though it's far from a "dream forecast" - another Lorna Doone winter will suit me fine. :lol:

If that was to happen I think I would be saying for faux sake! :lol:

Da-dum CHING! (faux cold is still better than no cold, if somewhat underwhelming)

Edited November 16, 2010 by AderynCoch

[Tom Quintavalle]

Fair comments there Fred and indeed only time will tell.

I truly hope your LRF is as accurate as possible, I'd bite your arm off for it now!

Thanks again to yours and Rogers' hard work.

Regards,

Tom.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Sorry if this upsets a few, and I'm not saying this to be inflammatory (although it probably will be), but how the hell can anyone judge this forecast as being "great"?!! It's a forecast, and surely should be judged purely on how accurate it turns out to be; not on the fact that it predicts what most of us would like to happen.

Also, based on last year's forecast where BFTP'S and RJ's forecast was no more accurate than a good many people's, why are there comments suggesting otherwise?

Why am I saying this? Two reasons; 1. I do think there is a lot of self-publicity going on here, with things like one of the authors requesting his thread be pinned. If it's popular, it will stay at the top on its own. 2. The almost sycophantic reverence it receives based, from what I can see, on little more than length and the type of weather it predicts. Cumulatively, I think it detracts from many other contributions many other members make to this place.

Let's not go over the top eh?!

[WhiteXmas]

I'd bite your arm off for it now!

NetWeather try not to promote cannabalism as a general rule of thumb however I'm sure Paul and the mods will make an exception this time around under the circumstances

Edited November 16, 2010 by WhiteXmas

[DAVID SNOW]

Thank you BFTP&RJS.

Good luck

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I knew you'd have to comment!

I haven't anywhere suggested that it's a tea-leaf forecast, so that particular point is entirely fatuous. As is your point about me picking holes in it, or questioning the motives of the authors. I can't make a forecast, I don't know enough about meteorology; I don't pretend to. However, I contribute to this place, as do you....both in our own special ways.

Tamara, I neither seek your opinion nor value it. I acknowledge that you're entitled to it however, as I am to mine.

[Rollo]

First a vote of thanks to Roger and BFTP for all the hard work put into their forecast- Roger will know that this forecast is similar(but nowhere near as thorough or with as good reasoning) as theirs. As to Osbournes comments which I totally disagree with,he should remember that a forecast is only that and both Roger and BFTP have been very brave to put such a detail forecast in front of us and risk being shot at by the likes of Osbourne,anybodty is entitled to their opinion but please reserve your somewhat destructive criticism until after the coming winter is over.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Well, it's not a criticism of the forecast, or a snub on the effort put in to it. But don't let the facts get in the way eh?

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

First a vote of thanks to Roger and BFTP for all the hard work put into their forecast- Roger will know that this forecast is similar(but nowhere near as thorough or with as good reasoning) as theirs. As to Osbournes comments which I totally disagree with,he should remember that a forecast is only that and both Roger and BFTP have been very brave to put such a detail forecast in front of us and risk being shot at by the likes of Osbourne,anybodty is entitled to their opinion but please reserve your somewhat destructive criticism until after the coming winter is over.

But that's exactly the point, no forecast can possibly be 'great', 'brilliant', 'poor', 'rubbish' or anything else until the forecast period has past and accuracy can be judged. I am always impressed by BFTP and RJS explanations of how they create their forecasts, so I might congratulate them for the effort they have obviously put in, but OON is absolutely right to say that there appears to be a large number of posts congratulating/thanking BFTP + RJS simply for posting a forecast they love the sound of.

[pottyprof]

Personally, I cannot see where OON has "dissed" the forecast at all. What I can see however, is the way some members see this forecast as some sort of weather machine, whereby it has to be the forecast that generates the outcome. This regularly happens in the model output discussion too.

It is a brave, detailed forecast and an interesting read but that is all it is at the moment. If at the end of the winter it verifies, then yes, it is a great forecast.

Let's be a little realistic with the comments peeps..

[Paul]

The effort made to create this forecast is obvious and clearly it's reasonable to show gratitude when people such as BFTP and RJS take the time and effort to put forecasts such as this together and share them on the forums. But equally I think it's reasonable to suggest that some of the adulation in this thread is more about the content of the forecast than it ought to be - I suspect the number of comments about it being great would be far less if the forecast was for a wet and windy winter..

So, thanks to Roger and Fred for sharing this, it'll certainly be interesting if it comes off!

[WhiteXmas]

Somehow I think Osbourne's somewhat disrespecful comments point to the fact that he harbours some form of jealousy/envy. There was a lot of hard work put into this forecast. I believe it would make sense for the topic to be pinned as many people on this forum will be looking for the LRF. Therefore why would it make sense not to pin it so it is easy for people to find; afterall that is what a website is for ease of use for the end user.

I am disappointed by the comments made by Osbourne as I believe they were cheap shots aimed at reputable people.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I don't think I've ever used this phrase before, but....

....LOL.

[WhiteXmas]

I don't think I've ever used this phrase before, but....

....LOL.

At least you remain in good spirits

[butler_son]

I shall add my voice with the many others expressing gratitude for the time and effort that has gone into this forecast from RJS and BFTP and appreciate their continuing efforts with shorter range forecasts throughout the winter (spesh BFTP on the Model thread).

But as for calling it great...I'll hold off on that. Yes, it shows a scenario desirable to many and is very detailed in the methodology, but there's really no way of telling if it's a great forecast until the winter is over, no? After all, Ian Brown's forecast could have been a great forecast for last winter if it had come to pass (fortunately for many of us it didn't), but I'm sure many people didn't call it "great" when it was released. I wonder if, in the case that it had proved successful, would people have regarded it as a great forecast post winter? If this forecast proves to be accurate come 1st March, I'll be back extolling its virtues and saying how great it is. But for now, I'll echo the sentiments of gratitude and say it's an insightful and interesting read.

All forecasts should be regarded equally now - only in March can we debate their "greatness".

Edited November 16, 2010 by butler_son

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'm a right Mr Chuckle!

Tell you what, everyone, if you've got a problem with what I put, send me a PM, save me getting lonely. But in the meantime, why doesn't everyone just back back to commenting on the forecast....objectively?!

[noggin]

I like the forecast and I think it is great for three reasons:

1) I like the methods which Roger and Blast use....all sorts of natural cycles and lunar/solar events are used in the determination of the forecast.

2) It gives a lot of detail without blinding the less knowledgeable of us (including me!) with overly meteorological jargon.

whispers this one 3) I love cold and snow! whispers off

With regard to it's accuracy, of course time will tell, but in the meantime.....cor, wouldn't it be excellent if it all came to pass!

Almost forgot my manners....."thank you" to Roger and Blast for the time and effort which you have so obviously put into your forecast and hats off to you both for having the courage to nail your colours so firmly to the mast.

Somehow I think Osbourne's somewhat disrespecful comments point to the fact that he harbours some form of jealousy/envy.

Nah.....he's just a miserable old git. :lol:

Edited November 16, 2010 by noggin

[butler_son]

Expressions of 'great' in terms of content and liking what is said are not inextricably linked in terms of 'great' in terms of whether it actually verifies or not:) .

What words might people use as reaction if they read the recipe to a luscious chocolate cake for eg? No different to conjuring up pictures of snowfields like this LRF might. Regardless of whether one ate the cake or whether the snowfields actually materialise.

Normal human reactions and behaviour as far as I can see:) .

Hence why I believe people should be more explicit. When reading through many posts, people were treating this as if it was going to happen (at least to my eyes). Normal human reaction indeed, I just feel that should be tempered a little, otherwise it could be a long winter for many! As a forecast (in terms of results), this is no better currently than me saying "we'll get 90 days of rain and wind this winter" (we won't), though its methods are doubtless better (as that statement took me 2 seconds to think up and has no methodology), whereas this forecast took no doubt weeks of work and expresses their methodology unambiguously.

I just believe we should be praising their work thus far (which is no doubt sterling) rather than the forecast (in terms of its delivery)!

Edited November 16, 2010 by butler_son

[johnholmes]

yes thanks Roger and BFTP for the work and time spent doing this forecast.

But as others have said there is a tendency on this forum to praise what someone posts or the models show IF its what you want to happen.

The proof of the pudding as they say is in the eating. We can start to test this quite early in the winter forecast from Roger and BFTP, they post,

'Moderate to heavy snowfalls are possible during this cold spell and most likely dates for these would be around the 6th and 13th (although 2-4 day periods of snowfall are likely).'

[chionomaniac]

Firstly, I would like to thank Roger and Fred for the time and effort that they have put into making the forecast and wish them the best of luck.

Whereas the forecast may be great for any cold lover it certainly cannot be judged as being great until after the event has occurred.

I am sure come 1st March 2011 we will all be able to reflect then.

Edited November 16, 2010 by chionomaniac

[Ladyofthestorm]

Thank you guys for taking the time and effort to give such a detailed forecast. I love the idea of using the solar and lunar cycles... of course the amount of solar radiation affetcs the weather.

Im more hoping for direct Nly ourbreaks myslef as NEly isnt a great direction for us if we want snow... however you are right its going to be a very chilly winter and I think a record for chilliness will be broken this winter, whether its the average winter temp, or lowest minimum, or number of days of snowfall.

All the best I hope it comes off.... xx

[joggs]

RJS and BFTP just want to say thanks for the effort shown, much appreciated by everybody im sure. Oh yeh n i hope its on the money:drunk:

[Iceberg]

Just to come to the support of the troublesome pair (surely not I hear).

Their are such things as good and bad forecasts, which are separate to accuracy.

A good forecast is well reasoned, supported and evidenced with a degree of usefulness.

A bad forecast might be based on the direction your pen falls when you throw it up in the air, isn't supported or evidenced and even if it's correct will be as much use as a wet blanket.

i.e "This winter will be colder than autumn" Factually correct but bl00dy useless.

Without wishing to put words in peeps mouths, this might be what they are saying.

Due to this I would classify this forecast as a good forecast (despite my reservations on the methods used), as to accuracy lets wait and see.