December CET

[shuggee]

I don't think we should turn this into a Met Cet not as good as Eden Cet hadley /manley blah blah. We are working with the figures we always use here and they are those of the Metoffice, to keep consistency this shouldn't change.

Yep - just going to nip this in the bud. This is the December CET thread not the "I want there to be a conspiracy to prove my point of view" thread.

I won't remove the posts above on this nonsense, but will from now on. Plenty of opinion and space in the climate area here: http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-and-environment/

[Nick L]

Moving away from the conspiracies, it's currently -3.6c here, so not exceptionally cold, but there is plenty of time to get into negative double figures. Tomorrow could well be the coldest CET max of the cold spell I would have thought.

[The PIT]

Moving away from the conspiracies, it's currently -3.6c here, so not exceptionally cold, but there is plenty of time to get into negative double figures. Tomorrow could well be the coldest CET max of the cold spell I would have thought.

Met seem very bullish about a record cold start tomorrow so lets see. Then everything is very unsure about boxing day and how much mild air we pull in. Very little freezing rain and snow around too much freezing rain at first too little plenty of snow.

[Beazle]

You're not being serious, right?

Well, as has been pointed out, I should not have posted that on this site and I apologise.

[kold weather]

GFS for once probably the least progressive model out there, that doesn't happen at all often!

I still think we will just miss out though as Stu showed if the GFS comes off its going to be a close call...we can probably bank on 0.2C at least in terms of adjustments.

Either way clearly going to be sub zero now its just whether we come 1st, 2nd, etc...

Whatever happen its going to be a severe month...and how many of those do you get!

[Nick L]

It's not often that you see the Met Office predicting exceptional cold, this for the West Mids...

This Evening and Tonight:

An exceptionally cold night is in store as temperatures fall rapidly under clear skies this evening, leading to a widespread and severe frost. With light and variable winds, freezing fog is also likely in places. Minimum temperature -18 °C.

[kold weather]

Hmmm I think possibly temps maybe progged too low away from maybe W.Midlands tonight but we will see...

for example temps at the moment are no where near as cold as they where on the 20th when we had a CET min of -11.7C but then again there is plenty of time.

W.Midlands very likely will be severely cold however...bet somewhere gets the maghical -20C.

Either way if you go below -10C tonight your certainly staying subzero tomorrow...

[FENDER.]

The next two nights may hold the key to whether the record can be broken or not. If the cet stations can return mean -8c (min say -12c max -4c) this could drag the running monthly down to -1.2 or even -1.3 Then its a case of hanging on for grim death to the end of the month lol.

May all come down to the adjustment. Its going to the wire, but still all to pplay for imo

Edit Pershore is one of the cet stations, right?

Edited December 24, 2010 by At least it will be mild

[Cymro]

I don't know I think the Welsh record of -23.3 could go tonight, its currently -13 here and falling!. Why are the metoffice observations for Wales so warm? I suspect because most of them are coastal.

[Roger J Smith]

Beside the guys with the minus something predictions who look odds-on to win now, I think I'm the last man standing with any realistic chance in the positives. I would rather lose at this stage, to get the negative month in the books. Here's what I mean by realistic.

If we reach -1 by end of 25th, then this is what you need to verify existing predictions above zero (this would be before any adjustments too):

0.8 needs 8.2 to hit and 5.0 to squeeze first place.

and that's about all I need to check, because we won't hit 8.2 and probably won't hit 5.0, my guess is 2.5 for the last six days, and an outcome of roughly -0.5 then the somewhat political decision re 1890 comes into view.

The warmest prediction, by the way, would need 45 C to win ... and the average prediction needs 17 C to win ... thanks for coming and drive safely.

[kold weather]

The west will be very cold but I think the eastern part of the region is going to hold temps up due to cloud, so whilst the western parts may well see severe temps I think the overall CET min won't be quite as cold as it was on the 20th or maybe even the 19th...

[Tom D]

The warmest prediction, by the way, would need 45 C to win ... and the average prediction needs 17 C to win ... thanks for coming and drive safely.

Haha! Thanks for that Roger. My prediction was a shameful 4.9c! Will likely be my worst prediction yet, more than 5c TOO HIGH and it was a below average prediction! :smiliz23: Just goes to show just how exceptional this month has panned out.

Edited December 24, 2010 by Tom D

[FENDER.]

Im a little confused with something that I saw on BBc news. I thought records started in 1659, and that was the record that we were chasing, the coldest December in 350 years.

Then I read this:

"December is on course to be the coldest since records began in 1910, the BBC weather centre has said" Are they talking about the UK in general. as opposedn to the CET. And is it a case that the CET goes back much further than the rest of the UK? Thanks

Edited December 25, 2010 by At least it will be mild

[Weather-history]

24th November-24th December CET: -0.9C

The coldest run-up to Christmas since at least 1772 (when daily records began)

[Stu_London]

CET to the 24th -0.8C

Yesterday was -1.8C

Last night was -9.2C

[reef]

A mean of 2.4C or below for the remaining 7 days is now required to give a sub-zero month before adjustments. Tomorrow will be a falling day so its looks pretty certain now.

[drfeelgood]

Im a little confused with something that I saw on BBc news. I thought records started in 1659, and that was the record that we were chasing, the coldest December in 350 years.

Then I read this:

"December is on course to be the coldest since records began in 1910, the BBC weather centre has said" Are they talking about the UK in general. as opposedn to the CET. And is it a case that the CET goes back much further than the rest of the UK? Thanks

They are talking about the UK national record which only started in 1910, as opposed to the CET records which do, in fact, go back to the 17th century.

I suppose the Met Office would rather use the national record instead of the CET to avoid accusations of being too England-centric. Another advantage of focusing on the UK record is that whether or not this December's CET beats 1890 becomes irrelevant. In other words, as far as the UK record (since 1910) is concerned this IS the coldest December on record. It is also much more satisfying for our sensationalist media to be able to say "coldest December on record" without having to add "since 1890.."

Edited December 25, 2010 by drfeelgood

[Beazle]

They are talking about the UK national record which only started in 1910, as opposed to the CET records which do, in fact, go back to the 17th century.

I suppose the Met Office would rather use the national record instead of the CET to avoid accusations of being too England-centric. Another advantage of focusing on the UK record is that whether or not this December's CET beats 1890 becomes irrelevant. In other words, as far as the UK record (since 1910) is concerned this IS the coldest December on record. It is also much more satisfying for our sensationalist media to be able to say "coldest December on record" without having to add "since 1890.."

Whilst I fully agree that our media are prone to sensationalise and play the the lowest common denominator, THIS December has been truly sensational- a month we will all talk about for ever.

[The PIT]

Sad to say it looks like the milder air is already pushing in unlikely to get below zero here tonight although the met office is saying -6C. However further south is noticeably colder so it's question how far this milder air pushes south. We are outside the CET zone so although the coldest ever is unlikely it's going to be close to the top.

[Stu_London]

Sad to say it looks like the milder air is already pushing in unlikely to get below zero here tonight although the met office is saying -6C. However further south is noticeably colder so it's question how far this milder air pushes south. We are outside the CET zone so although the coldest ever is unlikely it's going to be close to the top.

Lots of places in the CET zone already below -10C

Also cold is further south and east than last night.

I expect a value less than last nights -9.2C, en route to getting very close to the all time December CET record.

Edited December 25, 2010 by Stu_London

[FENDER.]

Would hope to be at -1c by the 27th. The mean for the period 28th-31st looks to be around +1

So we would finish around -0.8c All down then to the adjustment.

[Stu_London]

i'd actually hope to be more like -1.2C by the 26th

we will need adjustments to come into play for the record however, i think

[Weather-history]

i'd actually hope to be more like -1.2C by the 26th

we will need adjustments to come into play for the record however, i think

Well Manley CET is -1.3C by the 25th

[Tom D]

24th November-24th December CET: -0.9C

The coldest run-up to Christmas since at least 1772 (when daily records began)

That is all the more startling because only a couple of years ago it was feared, if not thought, that record cold was no longer possible.

I thought last January was a cold month but so far, since late-November, it's been the coldest I've ever experienced in this country and although I'm only 20, that's quite something considering the exceptional heat the country has also experienced in my life time!

How does the year shape up in the record since 1910?

[Weather-history]

Its going to be the coldest November-December CET combination since at least 1890.

If December 2010 turns out exactly zero then November-December 2010 will have a CET of 2.6C

November-December

1890: 2.45

1879: 2.4

1878: 1.6

1874: 2.7

1870: 2.65

1807: 2.4

1796: 2.15

1782: 2.55

1683: 2.5

1676: 1.5

Sensational!

Edited December 26, 2010 by Mr_Data