December CET

[Optimus Prime]

Don't wanna frighten y'all, but I've now got the first THREE days correct, note that I posted this on the 18^th!

Scary.

GFS got it right not you. It's been 2 weeks out correct when I've done the calculations before.

[stewfox]

Could we be on for the lowest Christmas / Boxing day CET ever ?

Max below freezing and overnight well below freezing ?

[AderynCoch]

Surely not Christmas Day: the record to beat is a not-very-warm -10.8C set in 1796!

[meerkat63]

December CET could all hinge upon the tilt of the front moving in on Boxing Day. Favourable, inland areas get some snow, it remains fairly cold or cool and we get a shot at the CET record. Unfavourable - slush and no record.

I remain hopeful but at the moment think we might just miss it. Still time for change though.

[kold weather]

Still think we are going to miss out on the record, jsut going to breakdown a few days too early, not that its a true breakdown but its enough to shift the CET probably to -0.5C...though obviously a big downward shift followed by the HP building in slightly quicker then progged and maybe a slightly colder next 3 days will make it a VERY close call!

Either way still obviously a very severe winter month!

[Optimus Prime]

18z would have the CET upto -0.2c by the 31st. Perhaps -0.4c after adjustments. The record is unlikely to go, 80% against perhaps but below 0c is 80% probable. 5.3c below normal. Yearly CET 8.87c.

[Cymro]

18z would have the CET upto -0.2c by the 31st. Perhaps -0.4c after adjustments. The record is unlikely to go, 80% against perhaps but below 0c is 80% probable. 5.3c below normal. Yearly CET 8.87c.

That is the GFS, It is famous for being over progressive and always backtracks. For example according to GFS today coastal areas of Wales would have seen temps of 3/4 where they were 1/0/-1.

I do agree to a part the record is a bit touch and go but the GFS is really overcooking temps and is famous for doing so.

[Optimus Prime]

Funny because I always remember everyone saying how it 'undercooked' the temperature.

[Tom D]

Certainly looks possible that we'll get the first sub-zero month since Feb 1986 (-1.1c) and possibly the coldest year since then too (8.74c). Will look very odd with an 8c month after so many 10c months consecutively!

[Weather-history]

There have been only 6 sub-zero calendar months since WWII

Feb 47: -1.9

Feb 56: -0.2

Jan 63: -2.1

Feb 63: -0.7

Jan 79: -0.4

Feb 86: -1.1

The period 26th November-25th December is going to be colder than at least 2 of them, Feb 56 and Jan 79 and probably Feb 63 as well

It is just about possible it could turn out colder than Feb 86. Manley is -1.0C up to the 23rd.

So we are going through the coldest 31 day period since at least around the Feb 86 period and maybe back to around January 63.

[Paul T]

looking at the all important 27th-31st days, Based on the 06Z GFS:

If we are at a mean of -1.0 by the 26th (and i believe it could actually be lower)

Mean temps will be something like:

27th: 1.5

28th: 1.8

29th: 1.4

30th: -0.2

31st: -0.4

This would leave us with an incredible CET of -0.7oC.

Now, a few points.

-It could be colder than -1.0 by the 26th

-The models/gfs is getting slightly colder with every run (as it seems to start to understand the colds strength on its close range modelling).

-There is a change of some downward adjustments, as the Manley is running lower.

This is history in the making; Genuinely exciting if your into stats and weather.

Edited December 24, 2010 by Paul T

[trickydicky]

Hopefully the CET will take enough of a spankering over the next two days, with the potential for a couple of exceptionally cold nights in the CET zone, to keep us below 0 til months end and hopefully challenge the December record too. I hope the Met Office Fax charts are right too, rather than the BBC Forecasts, and we keep the mush out to sea, or at least Ireland (sorry).

[Beazle]

Phillip Eden CET for Dec 1-23 is minus 1C. His is the most accurate and free from the politics so sadly prevalent at the MET. The all time December record according to Manley is 0.8 (1890).

This could be it !!!!!!!!!!!!

[Isolated Frost]

-0.7C to the 23^rd aswell.

So no change today then.

-0.4C to the 20th

-0.6C to the 21st

-0.7C to the 22nd

-0.7C to the 23rd

-0.8C to the 24th

-0.9C to the 25th

-0.8C to the 26th

-0.7C to the 27th

-0.5C to the 28th

-0.5C to the 29th

-0.4C to the 30th

-0.2C to the 31st

-0.4C after adjustments

-----

I now have the first 4 correct.

[reef]

There have been 34 sub-zero months in 351 years since the CET series began and this month is currently joint 21st coldest ever. These are quite remarkable stats and show how exceptional this month is looking like being. Even more unusual is how cold the first 10 days were in what traditionally is still a cooling month from start to end.

Whether the record goes or not its one of those months that you'll probably only see once or twice in a generation.

Ill also be very interested to see if the gap between the Manley and Hadley figures is closed by adjustments by the end of the month. Despite the nonsense from certain people above, the MetOffice would not fiddle the longest running temperature series in the world just so it didnt break a record. Indeed, Im sure many in the department are willing it down as much as the rest of us!

[J10]

Funny because I always remember everyone saying how it 'undercooked' the temperature.

Inland it does, but around coastal areas it tends to overstate temps, particularly overnight minimums in winter. (Not particularly relevant to CET but never mind).

It seems remarkable that there were thoughts whether we would EVER have a month below 3c again, and now is seems probable that there will be a sub zero month.

[damianslaw]

Sub zero CET month looking very likely now. The next couple of days will probably be enough to ensure we don't creep above 0 by the months end. Alot hinges on whether the upcoming less cold spell will be a cloudy affair or a clear affair. Maxes look supressed to around 3-4 mark next week and mins close to 0 degrees.

Its a strange state of affairs I have to say, had we not seen the bitter cold of last winter, this month would be feeling exceptionally extreme and unusual, but because of last winter, I think many are almost thinking it is quite normal... It has become quite normal even though it is abnormal, could you imagine how a month like now popping up between 2002-2008 would have been met - probably with complete amazement.

Still this has so far been a superb month in so many ways, up there as one of my favourites... would have liked more snow and blizzards and a polar low at some stage and had the month started a week earlier so to speak, well that record would probably have been smashed due to the last cold week in Nov. It will go down as a memorable month.

More months like Dec 2010 please.

[Cymro]

Sub zero CET month looking very likely now. The next couple of days will probably be enough to ensure we don't creep above 0 by the months end. Alot hinges on whether the upcoming less cold spell will be a cloudy affair or a clear affair. Maxes look supressed to around 3-4 mark next week and mins close to 0 degrees.

Its a strange state of affairs I have to say, had we not seen the bitter cold of last winter, this month would be feeling exceptionally extreme and unusual, but because of last winter, I think many are almost thinking it is quite normal... It has become quite normal even though it is abnormal, could you imagine how a month like now popping up between 2002-2008 would have been met - probably with complete amazement.

Still this has so far been a superb month in so many ways, up there as one of my favourites... would have liked more snow and blizzards and a polar low at some stage and had the month started a week earlier so to speak, well that record would probably have been smashed due to the last cold week in Nov. It will go down as a memorable month.

More months like Dec 2010 please.

Yes and in Wales snow cover has remained above 350m since the 26th of November that has to be something you would only expect in the highest reaches of Snowdonia, Pennines and Scottish Highlands. But there has been lasting snows as to say in the mountains at a relative low altitude also.

[Optimus Prime]

HADLEY IS the most precise means of recording the temperature series. Manley is accurate. Precision over accuracy...I'd go for precision. More often than not, Hadley comes in way below Manley if you look at the series and compare. E.g Manley for February 1986 was -0.7c...HADLEY came in at -1.1c. I'd say a drop of around 0.3c on the Hadley is very likely.

Inland it does, but around coastal areas it tends to overstate temps, particularly overnight minimums in winter. (Not particularly relevant to CET but never mind).

No that's ok, this is a thread to discuss all temperature records for Great Britain, even though the title may be CET. Perhaps sometime next year will have the same thread for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Would also get everyone to know the average means for each month of those countries. Would be also fair for all people from those countries seeing as this is a multinational forum.

Edited December 24, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[The PIT]

No that's ok, this is a thread to discuss all temperature records for Great Britain, even though the title may be CET. Perhaps sometime next year will have the same thread for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Would also get everyone to know the average means for each month of those countries. Would be also fair for all people from those countries seeing as this is a multinational forum.

It would be interesting to have a few other countries involved. We could start having compo's for all of them.

Just outside the CET zone we're at -0.2c I'm expecting a drop tomorrow after that probably a slow rise. We need a really cold night tonight and a very cold day tomorrow to cancel out any warm up.

[Beazle]

. Despite the nonsense from certain people above, the MetOffice would not fiddle the longest running temperature series in the world just so it didnt break a record. Indeed, Im sure many in the department are willing it down as much as the rest of us!

I used to have your faith in the MET-not anymore.

And by that i do not mean the average mid line employees. The upper reaches of the MET are under enormous political pressure - and a record for LOW temperature is not what their masters want. Give me Eden any day.

But how wonderful it is - who would ever have thought that we would have the chance to live through either the first or second coldest December ever !!!!!!!!

[Optimus Prime]

Even though Philip Eden almost always comes in higher?

[Stu_London]

12z gfs suggests -0.7C before adjustment so the record is still possible

merry christmas fellow CET freaks

[Nick L]

I used to have your faith in the MET-not anymore.

And by that i do not mean the average mid line employees. The upper reaches of the MET are under enormous political pressure - and a record for LOW temperature is not what their masters want. Give me Eden any day.

But how wonderful it is - who would ever have thought that we would have the chance to live through either the first or second coldest December ever !!!!!!!!

You're not being serious, right?

[Cymro]

I don't think we should turn this into a Met Cet not as good as Eden Cet hadley /manley blah blah. We are working with the figures we always use here and they are those of the Metoffice, to keep consistency this shouldn't change.

I do agree with some points based on political agenda's etc but whas is true this is a truly remarkable month, and the winter is likely to be below average yet again just because of the 5 degree anomaly we have seen this month!.

From Wales

Nadolig Llawen a blwyddyn newydd dda

Merry Christmas and a Happy New year