December CET

[Nick L]

Reached 5.3c here today, warmest for a very long time!

[Beazle]

Manley (Eden) at minus 1.1 C to the 28th.

[The watcher]

It has been reaching 9c over here in Ireland, even 10c in places. Hope it doesn't spread to all areas, want to keep things as low as possible.

[reef]

Hadley is on -0.8C to the 28th, yesterday came in at 3.9C.

Today's min is 2.9C, so another 0.2C rise perhaps tomorrow.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Isolated Frost]

IMO -0.3/-0.4C to the 31st.

-0.4C to -0.7C is the best landing range I think.

A little recap perhaps, Coldest Decembers in the CET Zone (1772-2010):

1. 1890: -0.8C

= 2010: -0.8C

2. 1788: -0.3C

= 1796: -0.3C

= 1878: -0.3C

3. 1874: -0.2C

4. 1784: 0.3C

= 1981: 0.3C

5. 1844: 0.4C

December 1676 came in at -0.5C (rounded to .5C decimal place, so not acceptable).

1772 is when daily means began, hence why I've used that in my data, only Dec 1676 came in below 0.5C anyway.

[damianslaw]

Could we have some stats for sub zero months in the past 100 years to compare this month too. Will Dec 2010 beat Feb 1986?

[Isolated Frost]

Sub Zero Months in the CET Zone (1910-2010):

1. January 1963: -2.1C

2. February 1947: -1.9C

3. January 1940: -1.4C

4. February 1986: -1.1C

5. December 2010: -0.8C

6. February 1963: -0.7C

7. January 1979: -0.4C

8. February 1956: -0.2C

First of the millennium most certainly of course, and the first since 1986. Also, the first December in the list.

Edited December 29, 2010 by North Sea Snow Balloons

[Great Plum]

That's an impressive list but it will be the first sub zero since 1986 not 1979!

[Isolated Frost]

That's an impressive list but it will be the first sub zero since 1986 not 1979!

Ah yes.

Thanks, will edit...

[The PIT]

Ah well stuffed here for a sub zero month. We'll probably finish around 0.2c to 0.5c depending how mild the next few nights are. Stuffed for the coldest ever so Dec 81 still holds the crown. Shows how regional variations make a difference.

[Isolated Frost]

Note that the Ensembles are going for a slight tint downwards on the final day of the month (31.12 0900 - 01.01 0900).

Could stall the drop to just two more 0.2C falls. Would mean that -0.5C to -0.8C is the best landing range.

NE England hasn't yet encountered the milder air, as with parts of Scotland and England, I'd imagine this is vital for local extremes.

1C max yesterday here, just over 2C max today, methinks a record December is still on for E Scotland/NE England...

For the CET Zone, I'd say:

Above -0.1C: 1%

-0.1C to -0.3C: 20%

-0.4C to -0.6C: 60%

-0.7C to -0.9C: 18%

Below -0.9C: 1%

[Isolated Frost]

Hadley's loverboys stations as of 1400 GMT (Latest Update):

Stonyhurst, Lancashire: 5.4C which is the current maximum.

Pershore, Worcestershire: 4.7C which is also the current maximum.

Rothamsted, Hertfordshire: 6.8C which (shock horror) is yet again the current maximum.

For the sake of all things cold, hopefully 1400 will be today's peak time in temperatures.

Edited December 29, 2010 by North Sea Snow Balloons

[ARB]

Sub Zero Months in the CET Zone (1910-2010):

1. January 1963: -2.1C

2. February 1947: -1.9C

3. January 1940: -1.4C

4. February 1986: -1.1C

5. December 2010: -0.8C

6. February 1963: -0.7C

7. January 1979: -0.4C

8. February 1956: -0.2C

First of the millennium most certainly of course, and the first since 1986. Also, the first December in the list.

Of course february 1963 only had 28 days so even if the temperature goes above it on the last few days of the month you could argue it was colder this year!

[Isolated Frost]

Ahahaha. Fraid' we cannot do that...

February as a whole would be in jeopardy!

Hadley's loverboys stations as of 1400 GMT (Latest Update):

Stonyhurst, Lancashire: 5.4C which is the current maximum.

Pershore, Worcestershire: 4.7C which is also the current maximum.

Rothamsted, Hertfordshire: 6.8C which (shock horror) is yet again the current maximum.

For the sake of all things cold, hopefully 1400 will be today's peak time in temperatures.

Stonyhurst down to 5.3C, Pershore at 4.3C, but Rothamsted remains at 6.8C.

Looks like the av. high today is going 5.7C (possibly more in the period 1400-1500).

Note that I'm using the 0900-0900 method.

28.11 (0900) - 29.11 (0900):

Av. High 4.2C+ (4.4C most likely)

Av. Low 1.7C- (1.6C most likely)

So, what would -0.8Cx28 + 3C equal?

Around -0.7C.

Lower Temperatures in the Hadley stations could cause a slightly lower outcome, -0.3C/-0.4C before adjustments most likely, but if that is tweaked a teenie bit to -0.5C, with a 0.1C rise today, and a 0.2C one over the next two, then it's possible that the record is joint, between 1890 and 2010.

All to play for still...

[damianslaw]

Thanks for these stats, wasn't sure how cold Feb 86 was, alas we won't beat it. However, very good chance we may beat Jan 79 it will be a close run thing.

Hazard a guess the finishing mark will be -0.6 degrees, today and the next two days look like delivering a CET value of about 5 degrees, and I don't expect any major downward correction at the month's end.

But have to say once again it is great to be talking about a sub zero month being recorded, last Jan seemed like it was going to be a one off fluke, but this month has wiped it to the floor clean.

When talking about Dec 2010 I hope people do not say it was consistently cold as it wasn't in fact it came in four distinct parts quite odd in many respects had it been Jan or Feb the milder interludes would have been less pronounced due to colder SST's in the atlantic, conversely the milder spells could have been milder had SST's not been so cold-

1-10 Dec very cold and snowy and sunny

10-16 Dec average temps dry little frost cloudy

17-26 Dec very cold snowy and sunny

27-31 Dec average very dull

This is in comparison to Feb 86 which was consistently cold some places not seeing a max higher than 3 degrees. The 10-16 Dec runined this month from being recorded as particularly special, the river Kent in Kendal began freezing by the 8th but the milder weather cleared the ice and stripped the fells clean of snow, however, the river was frozen in places between the 20-26 Dec and would have been more so in places had it not been for the milder interlude.

[Isolated Frost]

Thanks for these stats, wasn't sure how cold Feb 86 was, alas we won't beat it. However, very good chance we may beat Jan 79 it will be a close run thing.

Hazard a guess the finishing mark will be -0.6 degrees, today and the next two days look like delivering a CET value of about 5 degrees, and I don't expect any major downward correction at the month's end.

But have to say once again it is great to be talking about a sub zero month being recorded, last Jan seemed like it was going to be a one off fluke, but this month has wiped it to the floor clean.

When talking about Dec 2010 I hope people do not say it was consistently cold as it wasn't in fact it came in four distinct parts quite odd in many respects had it been Jan or Feb the milder interludes would have been less pronounced due to colder SST's in the atlantic, conversely the milder spells could have been milder had SST's not been so cold-

1-10 Dec very cold and snowy and sunny

10-16 Dec average temps dry little frost cloudy

17-26 Dec very cold snowy and sunny

27-31 Dec average very dull

This is in comparison to Feb 86 which was consistently cold some places not seeing a max higher than 3 degrees. The 10-16 Dec runined this month from being recorded as particularly special, the river Kent in Kendal began freezing by the 8th but the milder weather cleared the ice and stripped the fells clean of snow, however, the river was frozen in places between the 20-26 Dec and would have been more so in places had it not been for the milder interlude.

I agree about the 'consistent cold' remark, it of course hasn't been.

You say the 10-16 Dec ruined this month, however every month has slightly milder/less cold spells. January would have been sub-zero if it wasn't for 12.01 onwards...

We should just take it as it is.

My summary of the month here at Durham.

01.12 to 05.12: Extremely Below Average Temperature, Excessive Snowfall.

06.12 to 10.12: Below Average Temperature, Some Snowfall, Milder End.

11.12 to 15.12: Average Temperature, Some Rainfall, Little Sunshine.

16.12 to 20.12: Extremely Below Average Temperature (Ice Days Galore), Some Snowfall, Quite Sunny

21.12 to 25.12: Extremely Below Average Temperature (Ice Days Galore again), Some Snowfall, Sunny.

26.12 to 29.12: Below Average Temperature, Snowfall soon melted by Rainfall, Damp, Lack of Sunshine.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Although it is likely this month will end up relatively comparable to February 1986 in terms of temperatures, I thought 1986 was notable for how dry it was. If so, is it fair to assume December 2010 was a better winter month on the whole, as snowfall seemed to be relatively widespread and pretty frequent?

[Weather-history]

Coldest CET months on record

-3.1 Jan 1795

-3.0 Jan 1684

-2.9 Jan 1814

-2.8 Jan 1740

-2.1 Jan 1963

-1.9 Feb 1947

-1.8 Feb 1895

-1.7 Feb 1855

-1.6 Feb 1740

-1.6 Jan 1776

-1.5 Jan 1709

-1.5 Jan 1838

-1.5 Jan 1881

-1.4 Jan 1940

-1.1 Feb 1986

-1.0 Jan 1695

-1.0 Feb 1684

-0.9 Jan 1780

-0.8 Jan 1763

-0.8 Dec 1890

-0.7 Jan 1879

-0.7 Feb 1963

-0.6 Jan 1784

-0.5 Feb 1676

-0.4 Jan 1979

-0.3 Jan 1820

-0.3 Dec 1788

-0.3 Dec 1796

-0.3 Dec 1878

-0.2 Jan 1830

-0.2 Dec 1874

-0.2 Feb 1956

-0.1 Jan 1823

[Summer of 95]

Anybody else noticed that in December 2010, with its prolonged cold in western parts of the UK, the Manley/Eden has been consistently lower than Hadley, whereas in Feb 86, Jan 87, Jan 85, Jan 79 the reverse was the case? It's always seemed to me that in winter Hadley is biased towards months that were particularly extreme in E and SE England, making the "Central" bit something of a misnomer.

The -1.1 Hadley for Feb 1986 is 0.4 colder than Manley, on which scale Dec 2010 looks set to come close to matching it.

[paul tall]

You know, I've just been thinking about how consistantly cold this month has been.

[Beazle]

Manley (Eden) CET to the 29th is minus 0.9 C.

[The PIT]

We're now matching Dec 81 with 0.2C average. Should finish at 0.4c if the sun comes out today and tomorrow that is. Also a very dry month indeed with only 31.7mm of rain so far.

[Terminal Moraine]

It'll be a close run thing for this December to beat 1981 here thanks to this current mild spell.

One thing for certain, it will the driest December on my records at this site. The rainfall total currently stands at 40.1mm and the record is 54.0 mm in 2004; it will probably be the driest December since 1971 when I recorded just over 28 mm at a lower site about 15km away.

[BornFromTheVoid]

-0.6C to the 29th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 5.2C. Minimum for today is 4.5C and maxima look like being between 6 and 7C so an increase to -0.4C by tomorrows update looks likely.

Minima in the CET zone tonight will probably be around 4C again with maxima tomorrow around 6C, so a final figure (pre-adjusted) of -0.2 or -0.3C looks most likely still.

[Kentish Man]

There still must be a reasonable chance this month will come in as the second coldest December since the CET record began. It is a curious statistic that three Decembers recorded -0.3C and currently hold the second equal position (see Mr Data's chart above).

Regarding the other two minus months in my adult lifetime ie Feb 1986 and Jan 1979 both were remarkable for big snow drifts in my area - the one thing absent here in the recent cold spells.