December CET

[Tom D]

I'm ashamed of my prediction... it would take a pretty incredible mild spell to get it up to 4.9c after this start!

There's a realistic possibility now that it could end up below 0c for the month.

[Weather-history]

Carol Kirkwood on the One Show made some quite startling statements today, she said we are seeing the coldest spell of weather since Jan 1987 and before then we have to go back to 1740 - I'm not sure what script she was reading from but she seems to have forgotton Jan 1963 and 1940 and Feb 1929 and winter 1894/95 and infamous winter 1813/1814 - I'm sure there have been colder spells in between 1740 and 1987 compared to now- but I could be wrong.

How does the last 10 days compare with the first 10 days of Jan this year?

It would have been easier if she said "the coldest start to December since 1879" because that what it is likely to turn out to be at least for the CET. Another point, if the current period turns out to be similiar to early January's value then you have to factor in that this is even colder than early January, anomaly wise.

[The PIT]

I'm ashamed of my prediction... it would take a pretty incredible mild spell to get it up to 4.9c after this start!

There's a realistic possibility now that it could end up below 0c for the month.

I wouldn't be as we're now into new territory and experiencing weather that hasn't been seen for a considerable time. RIP even larger teapot and lets never hear the phrase again.

Yesterday we peaked at 2c but dipped to -7.6C so expect another drop in the CET value. We're just out of the CET zone but I expect similar values around there.

[Stu_London]

CET 01/12/10 - 06/12/10 -1.7C

Yesterday came in at -3.4C

Last night was -7.1C

My predictions to mid month based on the 06z are: -

8th -2.2C

10th -1.6C

12th -0.8C

14th -0.6C

15th -0.5C

After this date it seems we might be in for another cold spell, so the odds for a sub zero CET shorten again. Personally, I think we will just miss out - you only really need 1 or 2 mildish days for the CET to creep above 0C and I think we will get them somewhere between now and the 31st. There is a good chance we will have a CET of below 0C for a 30 days or longer period, from around the 24th November or thereabouts.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterdays max of -1.2C was colder than any from January this year and it looks like that could be beaten again today.

[i luv snow]

There are places in England that are still -12oC at midday! Todays figure should be impressive.

[AderynCoch]

There are places in England that are still -12oC at midday! Todays figure should be impressive.

The lowest temperatures right now are outside the CET zone however. Quite a few temperatures between -4C and -6C there currently.

[kold weather]

I think its going to rather close run thing Stu, depends on how stubborn the blocking is really up north...

I think we can safely say though this will be a very cold December, I think the aim we really have to go for would be 1.2C or something around there so we get a sub 9C year...thats more then do able providing we don't reset into southerly if the northern blocking breaksdown before the end of the month.

Still early days but something pretty rare looks to be in the making here, no reason why with a colder start then 81 we can't come close...esp with the northern blocking really strengthening again in the long range...

[AderynCoch]

There is a good chance we will have a CET of below 0C for a 30 days or longer period, from around the 24th November or thereabouts.

It will interesting to see when the earliest sub-zero 30-day period was.

[kold weather]

Current 30 day mean down to 2.52C whch is very low for the time of year, most impressive indeed!

That should continue to drop away regardless of any slight warm up this weekend...

15 day mean by the way is now below 0C!

[Nights King]

Is it possible you think to get a sub 0c december CET? Even with slightly closer to average temperatures for 3-4 days it will only pull it back close to 0c before next long cold spell is brought on.

When was last time uk has seen a sub 0c december?

Edited December 7, 2010 by mullender83

[BornFromTheVoid]

Mean for the last 12 days, since the 26th November is -1.6C. By the 9th, the 15 day running mean should be around -1.8C!

[Guest]

I'll go for a +2C

[kold weather]

Is it possible you think to get a sub 0c december CET? Even with slightly closer to average temperatures for 3-4 days it will only pull it back close to 0c before next long cold spell is brought on.

When was last time uk has seen a sub 0c december?

1890 which also was the coldest December on record down at -0.8C. 1981 was severely cold and was at 0.3C however the first week was mild and despite an exceptional cold spell the start was just a little too mild to overturn.

The difference this month to 1981 is we have had an exceptionally cold first week whilst 1981 didn't, gives us just a little bit more room for error...

A Severe month (below 1.5C) is looking quite probable already at this early stage....however still a long ole way to go!

[Stationary Front]

1890 was the last time a sub zero CET was recorded for December at minus 0.8. If we get a sub 1.3 CET then that will put us in the top 20 list for 'coldest CET' Decembers.

[Nick L]

And to think certain "knowledgeable" posters claimed it was impossible to get sub-3c month, very much egg-on-face time now!

[paul tall]

The people who were most vocal about how winters had changed for the worst (meaning milder and much less snow)if memory serves me right were Ian Brown and Stratos Ferric. Their observations at the time of course were correct as much as people didn't want to accept that 1 day of sleet was not "proper winter". However I don't recall either of them, or anybody else for that matter, saying sub 3 months were "impossible", just that they were much harder to achieve - this was true until only a year ago.

Do either still post? I'd be particularly interested to hear Stratos' take on things as they are at the moment.

[Great Plum]

Ian is around and posts from time to time. I haven't seen Stratos for a while. If I recall, he didn't say it was impossible; just a lot harder!

[The Calm before the Storm]

Today should really help keep the CET suppressed if our coniditions here in South Staffs are replicated elsewhere. Currently the mean here for today should come in at around -7c, a truly remarkable figure.

What would be really interesting would be if we could go the entire month without a single daily CET exceeding 5.1c (monthly average CET for Dec). Now that WOULD be impressive!! Might be worth a flutter.

[Richard Lake]

I think our overseas cousin Roger will be more or less right on the money with his CET although I secretly hope for a CET below 0!

Therefore if I am not too late I'll go for -0.1C.

[Weather-history]

1890 which also was the coldest December on record down at -0.8C. 1981 was severely cold and was at 0.3C however the first week was mild and despite an exceptional cold spell the start was just a little too mild to overturn.

Actually, it was the milder end that put paid to it, the milder start was overcomed by the cold spell and it was still sub-zero by the 28th. It was the last 3 days that killed it.

A point that is often forgotten is that December 1890 didn't start that especially cold, the real severe cold didn't start until after the first week. The first week of December 2010 is probably going to be 4C colder that the first week of December 1890

Edited December 7, 2010 by Mr_Data

[AderynCoch]

1890 which also was the coldest December on record down at -0.8C. 1981 was severely cold and was at 0.3C however the first week was mild and despite an exceptional cold spell the start was just a little too mild to overturn.

The CET for December 1981 actually dropped below zero between the 23rd and 28th, but it turned milder right at the end.

EDIT - see previous page!

Edited December 7, 2010 by AderynCoch

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Just imagine if we had a sub 0C month, let alone having the coldest December on record! Or will it be a case of better luck next time if the end to November isn't replicated in December, and if only it could have started on the 1st of December!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Something to aim for!

(1683-1684)

"First half of February: based on reconstructed records: CET averaged (minus) 6.6 degC: the coldest 15 day period of the entire 336 year record (up to 1995, and almost certainly beyond that)"

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm

[kold weather]

The CET for December 1981 actually dropped below zero between the 23rd and 28th, but it turned milder right at the end.

EDIT - see previous page!

Yeah true...but the first week was much milder then the last few days of December was, if I've got the stats right the few days averaged something like 4-5C but the first week had days getting into the 6s and 7s...and so I think its fair to say actually the first week was what prevented a sub 0C month...if the first 7 days weren't so mild we'd have probably been close to 1890!

We are going to struggle to get even close to the 3.1C from last December...

Amazing to think we are going to get yet another sub 3C month and after Jan 2009 we thought we blew our best chance of getting a sub 3C month, now we are going to get all three winter months of the 2010 calander month and quite possibly our second severe winter month of 2010 as well...