Now What Does The Rest Of The Winter Hold For Us?

[Alan Robinson]

Now what does the Rest of the Winter hold for us?

Well, I have done with probability once and for all, seeing how I forecast a mild winter based on the NAO index. Probability is the one branch of mathematics where the answers are often wrong, at least according to my (bankrupt) maths lecturer at Sunderland Polytechnic.

No, I've taken up growing vegetables, and made the acquaintance of biodynamic growers and Rudolf Steiner's ideas. Now I'm into divination, and I cannot say whether augury or geomancy is more suited to knowing what is going to happen with the weather. Tell you what, I'll spread some mixture number 507 or whatever it is called, conjure up a field goblin, and get en exact answer for you all. Back in a tick.......

http://cityfoodgrowers.com.au/bd507.php

Oops, my valarian was picked in August.......now what?

[Mr Freeze]

Well Alan either I am on drugs or you are my friend because I dont understand this what so ever lol. I'll take a look when Im sobber

Now what does the Rest of the Winter hold for us?

Well, I have done with probability once and for all, seeing how I forecast a mild winter based on the NAO index. Probability is the one branch of mathematics where the answers are often wrong, at least according to my (bankrupt) maths lecturer at Sunderland Polytechnic.

No, I've taken up growing vegetables, and made the acquaintance of biodynamic growers and Rudolf Steiner's ideas. Now I'm into divination, and I cannot say whether augury or geomancy is more suited to knowing what is going to happen with the weather. Tell you what, I'll spread some mixture number 507 or whatever it is called, conjure up a field goblin, and get en exact answer for you all. Back in a tick.......

http://cityfoodgrowe...om.au/bd507.php

Oops, my valarian was picked in August.......now what?

[Alan Robinson]

Well Alan either I am on drugs or you are my friend because I dont understand this what so ever lol. I'll take a look when Im sobber

Sorry Mr Freeze, I really ought not to have posted that, but as mentioned, I have become a keen vegetable grower these last few years. In my efforts to get the best out of my garden I try to anticipate the long-term weather. For example, if we had a winter like 2006, I could have fresh spinach right through from October to April, not to mention lettuce, fresh greens, and a kind of oriental brassica. Neither need I dig up parsnips and celeriac to put into storage. But a winter like this December one kills off everything except the hardiest leeks, land cress and hopefully my spring cabbages.

Anticipating the long term weather is what this thread is about though, and I have found I am hopeless at it. With me it is pure guesswork, just like my bankrupted maths lecturer years ago who couldn't resist the bookmaker and casinos. He made decisions based on probability, and was usually wrong, with catastrophic consequences for him. That is why I now only make a categorical statement if the probability of an event is either 0 or 1. Anything in between is iffy.

Back to gardening however, and I find there are people who believe the most incredible things. Biodynamics as far as I can tell involves some outrageous ideas, such as burying at the autumn equinox a cow's horn stuffed with the animal's own manure. It is supposed to concentrate cosmic forces into the handful of manure, which when correctly mixed in swirling water the following spring, diluted, and spread out over several fields - for it is said to be powerful stuff - makes for far healthier crops than otherwise. This stuff is known as preparation 500, but there are other preparations for other purposes I gather.

These occult ideas are the result of four lectures delivered by Rudolph Steiner in 1924, who, though he knew diddley about farming or gardening, founded an extraordinary growers movement now known as Demeter. I doubt many biodynamic growers have read Steiner's original lectures, for who can possibly believe that it is cosmic forces from Mars that make runner bean flowers red? And saturn's forces that make cucumber flowers yellow? Or that cows' horns because of their curvature direct cosmic forces back inside the animal, while antlers spread the (supposed) rays into the sky

Steiner held forth on all manner of subjects, and though I haven't looked into it yet - I shall soon - the weather is just the sort of thing he had esoteric and extraordinary explanations for. I personally find Steiner's ideas totally outrageous, and I grow organically without any hocus pocus. But I dare say the weather and climate are topics not fully understood by anyone, and until science makes advances in our knowledge, I'd say all seasonal weather forecasting involves a good measure of divination, hence my rather flippant post above.

Edited January 4, 2011 by Alan Robinson

[Alan Robinson]

Well, here's something from Rudolph Steiner about the weather. Please be patient if you read it, because he is far more prolix than I. It seems our ancestors had far better eyesight than us, otherwise spectacles would have been invented much earlier than they were. If you want to forecast the weather for the rest of this winter, consider how well sugar dissolves in your coffee, for the answer might well lay there.

http://wn.rsarchive....9240913p01.html

Edited January 4, 2011 by Alan Robinson

[Mr Freeze]

Hi peeps, well it looks like my winter is not over just yet if the BBC weather is correct, looks like were in for heavy snow according to them for tmorrow "Friday 6/1/11" So again I await to see how accurate the forecast is. Hope all of you that want snow will get another fantastic covering this year. Good Luck!

Edited January 6, 2011 by Mr Freeze

[ZONE 51]

I am thinking the next widespread cold period is the start of a pattern again, and the atlantic is showing itself only as a quick break from the widespread cold pattern, the atlantic won't set in for weeks of mild wet and gales thats unlikely, the far north is staying cold i would think, ...cold far north .. really quite mild far south with central north inbetween and with snow as cold and mild battle, does the new mild period really make that far north, it would be interesting to see how far it gets. plenty of rain and even gales for south to come..unless things change..can they?.....

Edited January 7, 2011 by nimbilus

[M1JWR]

I read with interest last autumn about the woman and her bees and what they did with their hive

whatever they did, she translated it to be a harsh winter, the bees were right.

Now we have 2 horses here, which grew their winter coats extra thick last autumn are starting to shed them,

animals are better weather forecasters than us, so what does that tell you ?

They did the same after last january's bad spell, reading posts on this forum, they have got it wrong this time.

Have they ???

Time will tell

Edited January 8, 2011 by M1JWR

[ZONE 51]

The simple theory is that if a warm winter was forecast you won't by them gloves..or would you just in case, where's if a cold one was forecast then you would buy those gloves early. Now convert this to wildlife..animals grow thicker fur,bushier tails.. if harsh winter weather is coming, so how do they know?

[Alan Robinson]

The simple theory is that if a warm winter was forecast you won't by them gloves..or would you just in case, where's if a cold one was forecast then you would buy those gloves early. Now convert this to wildlife..animals grow thicker fur,bushier tails.. if harsh winter weather is coming, so how do they know?

Generalizations are fraught with controversy. It is often simple to find an exception to the rule to discredit the proposition.

Regarding animals being able to make better long-range weather forecasts than us, I personally don't even think they know what tomorrow's weather is going to be like. Animals are like Samuel Johnson: they are happy to expect rain when the sky clouds over, and to expect sun when they disappear, at least during the day.

Last winter was disatrous here in Denmark for our local population of whooping swans. I went for a long walk last April and found literally hundreds of dead birds that perished though starvation followed by exhaustion. If the survivors had any sense, you'd have thought this year they would have migrated further south, but no, by November we had a flock of about 200 whooping swans. Then came the snow. Fortunately, winds have caused severe drifting, and consequently there were some significant patches on rape seed fields where the birds could feed, and now we have a very efficient thaw. We won't see the same pitiful whooping swan deaths this year, but the birds have been very, very lucky, for it was a close scrape for a while.

[Mr Freeze]

Well we got our snow, only for 5 mins though This weeks weather is for mild, but wet and windy. Thats my least fave weather conditions. So I await eagerly next week weather forecast.

[Eugene]

Yes unbelievably the first mild week since early November. :o

Cracks me up when i read people saying a colder pattern is always put back on the charts, mmmmmmm tell the winter CET that so far its taking quite a hammering, i only see 3 to 4 very mild days before cooling down, i think another cold spell will be on the horizon come end of the week.

[Isolated Frost]

Yes unbelievably the first mild week since A) early November. :o

B ) Cracks me up when i read people saying a colder pattern is always put back on the charts, mmmmmmm C) tell the winter CET that so far its taking quite a hammering, i only see D)3 to 4 very mild days before cooling down, i think another cold spell will be on the horizon come end of the week.

A) Early = Mid

B ) Well, it is.

C) It's rising everyday now, and what's that got to do with the Models.

D) Back this up, please

Edited January 10, 2011 by North Sea Snow Balloons

[osmposm]

Yes unbelievably the first mild week since early November. :o......

A) Early = Mid....

Depends on your definition, really. Until this current period (and I don't know where we stand now) the last 7.0+ CET mean day was the 18th November, and the last double-digit one was the 5th November (though the 12th was very close).

Edited January 10, 2011 by osmposm

[ZONE 51]

I am completely baffled..its like weather from the 90s..and during an ICE*AGE then that amazes me more...!

Really though i don't mind this weather, december was a rare event, incredible set up, and if thats it for winter at least we were there!

I am thinking that once we crack out of the atlantic wave then as is occuring in the pattern forming next week a building block of high forming pulling in colder air, i prefer mild rain rather than if sleet is to remain sleet when the cold comes..we will get more cold and snow right across UK, its winter! and its just early jan.

[AderynCoch]

Even January so far has already managed more snow here than during the entire winter quarter of 2007-8.

[Verglas]

looking at the jet prediction from about 18th where it swings around to the north again and also the 528dam line down south of us are we in for another week of snow ?

[Mr Freeze]

Well guys n girls good news its getting colder again from 18th "Tuesday" so wonder what we can expect. I so hope we get some wicked weather.I apologise to anyone who wants it mild or normal. For me the colder the better and the snow would just be a aded bonus to me if it makes a return. Bring it on I say!

Edited January 14, 2011 by Mr Freeze

[NL]

I know most on here dont hold much for Piers Corbyn but he's now commenting on a return to exceptional harsh winter conditions.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

[Mr Freeze]

Well so much for the cold weather heading in, Walking around up here in a Tshirt. Whens it coming back?

[abbaman]

If cfs run of the jet stream we are looking for the rest of winter being mild but that is raw data. But I think if we get a bad late nov Early dec er will get a mild Jan , Feb and March. I also have looked at metoffices cfs raw data as well and it's the same as the raw data for the jetstream on here. Also my weather stations raw data as the same as both the jetstream rawdata on here and the metoffice. But with a few cold spells but not under -2 and I have done a my own long range forecast and for rest of Jan Feb March we are sticking to a low mild winter. As I have been given a very rare copy of when there was a late Nov Early Dec snowfall. But can not send it as it is private doc. 1956 is one when it happend and 1962 dec to feb 1963. And this is an extract from that page. In 1963 the cold weather started in December 1962 and persisted through to February 1963. It was a terrible time for people especially in the Southwest of England where many were cut off and trapped in their homes for long periods of time. Whatever global warming brings there will still be from time to time cold winters but perhaps they will never be as spectacular or as devastating as those mentioned above.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well so much for the cold weather heading in, Walking around up here in a Tshirt. Whens it coming back?

Its pretty chilly down here, you wouldn't be walking in a t shirt for sure!!

I know most on here dont hold much for Piers Corbyn but he's now commenting on a return to exceptional harsh winter conditions.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=297&c=5

He is watching that update closely. E mail yesterday states that it seems to have shifted east and they are watching developments closely. I think he was too soon in bringing in the exceptional cold, end of month more like Feb for that.

BFTP

[Mr Freeze]

Must be getting colder as my garden pond was frozen solid this morning.

[Mr Freeze]

Damn cold today! With fog again today. We live in a valley and its fab to see it falling down the valley and then sneaking up on us. Anyway does fog hold the cold in, or hold the cold out, or does it do both.

Edited January 22, 2011 by Mr Freeze

[itsnowjoke]

cold here today here ground all white and birds water dish outside frozen solid

[lukemc]

Hi,

I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future.

Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow.

What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain?

But even in winters in the so called "christmas pudding" before 2008 February, March and April have often delivered not just cold wise - but snow wise too - examples that I think of are the Februaries of 1999 and 2007 which were mild overall but had good snow events contained within them, March 2006 and April 2008. So I certainly do think there is good potential for snowfall over the next few weeks - infact I might stick my head out and say that I would be extremely surprised if nowhere in the lowland British Isles has significant snowfall within the next 6-8 weeks.

Luke