Now What Does The Rest Of The Winter Hold For Us?

[abbaman]

Hi,

I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future.

Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow.

What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain?

But even in winters in the so called "christmas pudding" before 2008 February, March and April have often delivered not just cold wise - but snow wise too - examples that I think of are the Februaries of 1999 and 2007 which were mild overall but had good snow events contained within them, March 2006 and April 2008. So I certainly do think there is good potential for snowfall over the next few weeks - infact I might stick my head out and say that I would be extremely surprised if nowhere in the lowland British Isles has significant snowfall within the next 6-8 weeks.

Luke

I think we might get some snow but it will be light snow it won't settle at all with a it will be mainly on higher ground mainly the hills and mountians of the uk. I have checked some data from a few years back.

And winter is over forget anymore snow coming back winter is really over for us all with High Pressuse still sitting over us.

[itsnowjoke]

Im praying for one last cold shot before end of winter one thats last about a week, as its slipping away so quickly. theres been approx 4 weeks of this weather and personaly i cant stand it. BRING ON THE COLD (does the snow dance).

[Mr Freeze]

Ill join you in that dance mate! Just for snow though nothing romantic!

[Mr Freeze]

Bring it on, Cold weather returning from Wednessday! Lets hope we can have at least one last snow event before winter ends. 2 or 3 days lying snow will do me.

[sunnyweather]

Is winter really over ask yourself. We will not get another really snow spell but all things could pan out diffrently. Acourding to Jim dale Winter is over. For good this winter look to next winter.

Edited January 25, 2011 by sunnyweather

[Mr Freeze]

I realy hope not, we have all of Febuary to look foward too. I do hope yhat brings something for us?

Is winter really over ask yourself. We will not get another really snow spell but all things could pan out diffrently. Acourding to Jim dale Winter is over. For good this winter look to next winter.

[damianslaw]

Bring it on, Cold weather returning from Wednessday! Lets hope we can have at least one last snow event before winter ends. 2 or 3 days lying snow will do me.

What do you class as winters end? The end of Feb? Well we have 5 weeks left. In terms of timescales for wintry weather - these last in my opinion right through to about mid April. Admittedly chances of sub zero maxima diminish rapidly by middle of March, but the threat of significant snowfall doesn't dissapear until about mid April.

Even if we do not see any snow between now and end of Feb, I certainly won't be throwing in the towel in terms of chances for further snow during March and April. Here in the north I rate March every bit as high as Dec in terms of snow risk. A deep seated northerly in March is every bit as bitter as one during Dec, Jan and Feb and Spring is when northerlies reach their yearly maxim. Indeed we tend to see much more favourable synoptics for snowy weather during March and April than we do in the official winter period, and with cold SST's this year I think we have a very good chance of some late season very disruptive snowfall..

[Isolated Frost]

Limited convection;

The Nov/Dec cold spell cooled the waters significantly, we need around 12C-13C difference between 850 temperature and water (sea) temperature to make convection usually, the larger the difference the better.

The N Sea temperatures will be around 4-6C around the 10-50 mile distance from the coastline (2-4C in EA/SE) by late Feb, and around 1C higher on the coastline.

-7C uppers/-8C uppers, from the East for convection really, -5C would do IMO, and marginallity would be around -3C/-4C from Siberia, -5C from Scandi/C/E Europe.

So as the season goes on, convection becomes limited.

Of course, The Atlantic is much warmer (around 9C-12C) in Late Feb/Early March, so -3C/-4C would do, but of course that would be marginal.

So indeed, the Cold Spell has possibly decreased our Snow possibillities, but enhanced our cold (sea temperatures lower - less warmth and tampering with air).

And considering Siberia/C Europe/Scandi is much warmer in March than in Dec/Jan, and the Atlantic/Arctic is slightly cooler (massive oceans), then possibly it's the North and West to look from now on in this Winter, unless some DEEP cold moves in from the East, in which case, supreme cold could rule, with cold SST's and Uppers.

And the waters round Scotland/NI are slightly cooler than average, so a push from the Arctic/Greenland would remain cooler than usual, but would still have alot of convection potentially.

Winter is by no means over, IMO, the cold can easily strike once more, but less likely for snow...

[damianslaw]

Limited convection;

The Nov/Dec cold spell cooled the waters significantly, we need around 12C-13C difference between 850 temperature and water (sea) temperature to make convection usually, the larger the difference the better.

The N Sea temperatures will be around 4-6C around the 10-50 mile distance from the coastline (2-4C in EA/SE) by late Feb, and around 1C higher on the coastline.

-7C uppers/-8C uppers, from the East for convection really, -5C would do IMO, and marginallity would be around -3C/-4C from Siberia, -5C from Scandi/C/E Europe.

So as the season goes on, convection becomes limited.

Of course, The Atlantic is much warmer (around 9C-12C) in Late Feb/Early March, so -3C/-4C would do, but of course that would be marginal.

So indeed, the Cold Spell has possibly decreased our Snow possibillities, but enhanced our cold (sea temperatures lower - less warmth and tampering with air).

And considering Siberia/C Europe/Scandi is much warmer in March than in Dec/Jan, and the Atlantic/Arctic is slightly cooler (massive oceans), then possibly it's the North and West to look from now on in this Winter, unless some DEEP cold moves in from the East, in which case, supreme cold could rule, with cold SST's and Uppers.

And the waters round Scotland/NI are slightly cooler than average, so a push from the Arctic/Greenland would remain cooler than usual, but would still have alot of convection potentially.

Winter is by no means over, IMO, the cold can easily strike once more, but less likely for snow...

Once we hit late Feb/early March our best direction for snow is an unstable northerly which will still produce lots of convection and is often associated with shortwave/trough development. Many recent examples of northerlies during late Feb and early March producing lots of snow occured as recently as 2004 and 2006. However, easterlies at that same time period in 2005 produced localised snowfalls and much more marginal conditions.

Easterlies are usually much more stable and the colder N Sea doesn't help build instability, unless it is a particularly strong eastern wind, late March 1996 produced snow off a strong easterly I seem to remember.

I always rejoice prospects of a deep unstable northerly from late Feb onwards as it often means sudden heavy snowfalls and trough formation and chances of polar lows...

[Isolated Frost]

Once we hit late Feb/early March our best direction for snow is an unstable northerly which will still produce lots of convection and is often associated with shortwave/trough development. Many recent examples of northerlies during late Feb and early March producing lots of snow occured as recently as 2004 and 2006. However, easterlies at that same time period in 2005 produced localised snowfalls and much more marginal conditions.

Easterlies are usually much more stable and the colder N Sea doesn't help build instability, unless it is a particularly strong eastern wind, late March 1996 produced snow off a strong easterly I seem to remember.

I always rejoice prospects of a deep unstable northerly from late Feb onwards as it often means sudden heavy snowfalls and trough formation and chances of polar lows...

Yes, I agree.

Another thing that I wonder, which I think you would know.

Seasonal Lag, inland I'd say around 30-40 days after solstice, on the coast, around 50-60 days, and inbetween everywhere else in the UK, wouldn't a East wind be coldest in say, mid-January/early-January because it moves usually from the land (Siberia/Continental Europe), and the Atlantic/Arctic coldest in Late February/March time, as it's coolest then?

[Guest]

http://www.wsieurope.com/dbc803ed-af28-4aca-9119-c9cab3e1140e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Wonder if anybody has any comments on this?

[Mr Freeze]

So theres hope for us yet Sounds very interesting! I would love to see it actually happen.

[sblog]

Fingers crossed!!! - Sod it, everything crossed....let's just hope there's some snow in there, not just cold air!!!

[Don]

So theres hope for us yet Sounds very interesting! I would love to see it actually happen.

Indeed, we still have another 3 months for potential wintry weather to occur. Just a shame things aren't more favourable for the present.

Edited January 26, 2011 by Don

[Rollo]

http://www.wsieurope.com/dbc803ed-af28-4aca-9119-c9cab3e1140e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Wonder if anybody has any comments on this?

First I have heard of this group but it has to be said that a lot of folk have been saying a similar thing, it certainly is a fact that the current high and the others that seem destined to replace it look like being in the wrong position to give anything othe than frosty weather for the next 14 days or so and beyond that who knows. The patterns this winter have been somewhat strange and it would not surprise me in the least for a return of very cold conditions in the 3rd or 4th week of February to occur.

[Tim]

What do you class as winters end? The end of Feb? Well we have 5 weeks left. In terms of timescales for wintry weather - these last in my opinion right through to about mid April. Admittedly chances of sub zero maxima diminish rapidly by middle of March, but the threat of significant snowfall doesn't dissapear until about mid April.

Would depend on location really, in Bristol by March we've pretty much had it down here!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Once we hit late Feb/early March our best direction for snow is an unstable northerly which will still produce lots of convection and is often associated with shortwave/trough development. Many recent examples of northerlies during late Feb and early March producing lots of snow occured as recently as 2004 and 2006. However, easterlies at that same time period in 2005 produced localised snowfalls and much more marginal conditions.

Easterlies are usually much more stable and the colder N Sea doesn't help build instability, unless it is a particularly strong eastern wind, late March 1996 produced snow off a strong easterly I seem to remember.

I always rejoice prospects of a deep unstable northerly from late Feb onwards as it often means sudden heavy snowfalls and trough formation and chances of polar lows...

Aye, I find those northerlies pretty exciting as we head into spring- towering Cb cells with snow/hail trails coming out of them, temperatures rising in the sunshine and falling very abruptly in showers, snow squalls, hailstorms etc. There were some good recent examples in late March & early to mid April 2008. The springs of 2009 and 2010 largely disappointed on this front although 11/12 May 2010 produced this scenario over some areas of the country.

March 1996's main "easterly" snow event was caused by a frontal system advancing from the west on the 11th/12th which came up against cold continental air and retreated back westwards, bringing widespread snow with it. In Tyneside the "easterly" weather of March 1996 was consistently overcast and drizzly, the snow soon thawed after the frontal snowfall, and there was no sun at all from the 11th to 25th inclusive- sunshine and wintry showers set in from the 26th onwards but only after winds had swung around to the north. However, it is still possible to get sunshine and snow showers off an easterly in March/April if the easterly has a "northerly" source, e.g. 1/2 and 17/18 March 2001 were good examples in Tyneside.

The return of cold into March would be consistent with the 1890/91 analogue that I've mentioned earlier- I know that analogues are of limited use but coupled with the La Nina (which has promoted northerly outbreaks in the spring during recent years) and the similarity of the upcoming pattern with February 1891 there surely has to be a fair chance of it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Would depend on location really, in Bristol by March we've pretty much had it down here!

I don't think that's true, although on average the SW does have a shorter season. There were wintry showers reported at Plymouth on the 2nd June 1975, wintry showers fell in early May in 1979 and 1982 in the Exeter area (with a dusting in parts of the region in the former instance) and as recently as 6 April 2008 there was widespread lying snow in SW England. Note that Plymouth and to a lesser extent Exeter are generally milder and less snowy than Bristol!

[damianslaw]

Yes, I agree.

Another thing that I wonder, which I think you would know.

Seasonal Lag, inland I'd say around 30-40 days after solstice, on the coast, around 50-60 days, and inbetween everywhere else in the UK, wouldn't a East wind be coldest in say, mid-January/early-January because it moves usually from the land (Siberia/Continental Europe), and the Atlantic/Arctic coldest in Late February/March time, as it's coolest then?

Yes easterly winds do tend to be at there coldest from middle of Jan through to about middle of February as the continent is at its coldest then. Indeed a deep seated easterly from west russia and further east will be associated with much colder uppers in mid Feb than in mid December.

As for northerlies they tend to be at there coldest in late Feb/early March as the arctic is at its coldest then. A northerly in late March/early April is every bit as cold as a northerly in December and January. In any showers or rain/snow temps drop markedly in a northerly in early spring, quite easily down to freezing, it is only once the rain/snow clears and clouds break do temps go up appreciably thanks to the stronger sun.

I can recall many mild winters which have ended with a wintry sting in late Feb/early March 1993, 1995, 2004 being good examples. Of the three 1995 is the best example of a potent northerly in the first week of March, indeed this spell of weather brought the snowiest conditions of that whole winter. Also easter 2008 was notably more snowy than the preceeding winter thanks to the potent northerlies. I love northerlies in early spring - every bit as exciting as a deep seated north easterly or easterly in the depths of winter..

[Guest]

After the recent mild spell there are some daisies making an appearance on my lawn but as the old adage goes "January usually borrows a few days from spring" and these are paid back at a later stage.

[Weather-history]

Of the three 1995 is the best example of a potent northerly in the first week of March, indeed this spell of weather brought the snowiest conditions of that whole winter.

Actually that was an example of cold zonality. There was no northerly during that spell. There was a northerly at the end of the month but the start of the month was cold zonality.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember that spell of cold zonality in Tyneside quite well- there was a GMTV forecast on the 1st March 1995 by a male presenter who appeared quite enthusiastic about the snow (unlike the GMTV presenters who dominated from 1996 onwards!) and was particularly excited by "tomorrow evening, we'll have an area of snow moving in, not from the west, but from the south-west!". Not many showers got over the Pennines to Cleadon on the 2nd but there were a couple of flurries that evening, and snow and hail showers were rather more frequent from the 3rd to the 8th, often with accumulations during showers and thaws during sunny intervals.

Indeed the whole spring quarter of 1995 was unusual for its high incidence of such convective weather in Tyneside, though this may not have been the case in some other regions as Tyneside does tend to be favoured for convection in the sort of northerly and north-westerly types that recurred during the season. There was a recurrence of cold zonality around the 15th-19th March, and then the northerly of the 27th-29th which had a big hailstorm at around 1pm on the 27th, then another northerly on the 18th-21st which gave snow showers initially and then more hailstorms, then more northerlies on 8-20 May with torrential outbreaks on the 8th, sleet on the evening of the 11th and more hail on the 12th. Despite this, though, there wasn't a single day with thunder at Cleadon, in contrast to Manchester Airport's nine days, which illustrates that in such showery regimes, not only are showers hit and miss but thunderstorms are even more so. The more recent example on 6-15 April 2008 gave two thunder-days at Cleadon and three at Norwich, while those of early March and early April 2006 failed to produce a thunder-day at either location.

[Geordiesnow]

I love northerlies in early spring - every bit as exciting as a deep seated north easterly or easterly in the depths of winter..

So do i, and the good thing about a Northerly in spring is that snowfall/shower activity can be quite widespread because of the strenghtning sun generating showers when cold is over us(i'm sure someone more knowledgeable could explain how this can occur).

I remember a BBC forecast of a spring NNW'ly and they forecast very little PPN but they got the forecast totally wrong as showers were quite widespread and there were a couple of snow showers around here, none of them accumulated mind you. I think it was on the same day but during the evening hours before the sun set, we had quite a beefy snow shower which left around a 2CM covering.

For me, I'm interesting in snow right up to April. After that, unless i know we get cold enough air for snow, then my interest in cold weather set ups fades away. So whilst the current model output is not great, there is still alot of time as far as i'm concerned.

[damianslaw]

Actually that was an example of cold zonality. There was no northerly during that spell. There was a northerly at the end of the month but the start of the month was cold zonality.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

Yes sorry it wasn't a northerly airstream it is was cold zonality with winds from the west/south west and north west - also proof that cold zonality in early March can be very conducive to snow alebit not the low temps you get with a northerly.

[Guest]

Perhaps those with the stats at hand will correct me if I am wrong but it is my impression that we have had more white Easters than Christmases, so northerly blows in the spring are quite normal.

Going back to the prior post from Damianslaw I recall that when my son was born on 05.03.1970 we had something like an 8 inch snowfall at Hemel Hemspstead. In fact I took my daughter into the garden where I made an igloo for her.