Now What Does The Rest Of The Winter Hold For Us?

[Mr Freeze]

Well I have a feeling our winter is over now, what can we look foward to now, mild days and rain. I hope not!

[BARRY]

Well I have a feeling our winter is over now, what can we look foward to now, mild days and rain. I hope not!

What a load of bull, Good god man theres at least 4 months to go and so much model watching, your on the wrong forum if you think it's over

[lukemc]

Here is what I just posted on the North West regional forum - it is a very good post and relevant to this thread so I will copy it to here:

Hello again,

Been feeling rather down and upset today seeing all the snow melting away but I think that feeling is also added to by the fact that we have had fully entact snowcover on the ground for over a week which is unusual for my area (Liverpool) so seeing it go is rather saddening - I will certainly miss walking over ground covered in powdery snow and the way it has all gone is certainly depressing with heavy rain speeding up the thaw so I feel for a lot of you on here as I know many of you are more excitied by this weather than I am. I would always have -3C, sunny and snow on the ground any day over 2C, rain and wind - any day. The snowcover also brightens up the landscape during the dark nights in winter it seems so depressing when it all turns to rain. There also seems to be a metaphorical significance in the thawring of snow which makes me rather emotional - it tells you that in nature nothing lasts for ever - it reminds me of the ending of that well known cartoon film "The Snowman" where he just melts away at the end and the boy is very upset .

But the positive side of me also tells me that we are only at the end of December and that the synoptics for this winter have been very different from your typical "even larger teapot" with seemingly endless mild South Westerly wind and rain off the atlantic. In fact history tells us that a December as cold as the one we have just had, we can expect at least a cold January in most cases (can Mr Data back me up on that one) and usually a cold February too (although there are exceptions like 1982 and 1917). Remember that in most historically cold winters like 1981-82, 1962-63 and 1978-79 the cold and snow was not continous and there was often a milder interlude before the cold and snow returns with avengance. In fact from a statistical point of view a have a feeling that this winter overall will come as at least the coldest since 1962-63. We have managed to get the coldest December in over 100 years, so can we go all the way and beat 1962-63. If that is not possible I would be happy for us to beat 1978-79 and be the coldest since 1963 - could you see that being the case?

It is also worth understanding that by UK standards we have had a very cold severe spell of weather giving a taste of what the winter weather is like in more "continental" climates like Chicago, Toronto and Moscow - which I have found very interesting. In fact even if you lived a temperate continental climate like Chicago and Toronto it is not always subzero, snow and ice all the way for 3 months most winters have milder interludes were the tempeatures go above freezing resulting in a thaw for a bit so at the moment we are giving areas like these a run for thier money which I find amazing! I do think that we will be on this forum again in the not too distant future discussing the specifics of our next snowfall. I wish everyone on this forum a very happy and hopefully snow and cold New Year.

Luke

[cyclonic happiness]

And there should be no notion of cold spells for the winter being exhausted just because it is early in the season.

We still have over two and half months of winter proper left and then the months of march and april where snow is still very likely.

The models at the minute are not filling me with much faith as anything they appear to be showing is so far away from what I've been used to seeing the last five or six years that I'm not going to look for anything other than trends.

So keep your chin up and your reservations down

[damianslaw]

And there should be no notion of cold spells for the winter being exhausted just because it is early in the season.

We still have over two and half months of winter proper left and then the months of march and april where snow is still very likely.

The models at the minute are not filling me with much faith as anything they appear to be showing is so far away from what I've been used to seeing the last five or six years that I'm not going to look for anything other than trends.

So keep your chin up and your reservations down

Not too sure where your dispondency is stemming from. In fact the past two winters and now this one have thrown up many cold synoptics within the reliable timeframe upgrading them rather than downgrading them as was the case prior to Dec 08.

What we have is a very inactive atlantic, very cold SST's for the time of year, very cold polling just to our north and north east, heights building over the country and to the NW where they have taken up permanent residence for a very long time, a continued southerly tracking jet and a good 2 and half months of proper winter still to go. All signs are for retrogression of heights to Greenland yet again and dropping of scandi trough as we see split PV.. plenty more cold snowy weather ahead I feel.

[sundog]

I dont think that now the recent cold spell is over that now our winter is over,i think there will be other cold spells to come maybe not as intense as the ones in December but i think there is alot more cold and snow to come this winter. Then of course what about spring,i would not be surprised at all if we get some more cold spells with snow in march and april. The cold snowy winter of 1978/79 was followed by snowfalls even up till may whos to say that might not happen this spring aswell.

[A Winter's Tale]

What ever you do, don't say the winter is over. We have got more than two months of winter and I think we have had the biggest freeze of the winter as the rock landed in the pond (atlantic) sending waves of cold to our shores and throughout the winter ripples of cold weather will come to our shore. The models are suggesting the idea of high pressure which would keep temperatures on the cool side and some charts and synoptics are indicating either an easterly or for the high pressure to move westwards to allow nothern blocking and cold air to flood down from the Artirc. This winter ain't over. Even the great winters of the past have had mild spells. Besides, we have had a great winter already.

[summer blizzard]

I will release my full winter forecast in a day or two once i get time. (not including December)

In regards to the rest of the winter, i expect all months from January through April to be below average.

Rougth CET as follows...

Jan: 3C (very dry)

Feb: 1C (very cold)

March: 5C (cold but wet)

April: 7C (Chilly but showery)

Indications for summer are currently not good, especially if La Nina persists because we would have the La Nina plus negative QBO combination (aka 2007).

[cold&cloudy]

It is also worth understanding that by UK standards we have had a very cold severe spell of weather giving a taste of what the winter weather is like in more "continental" climates like Chicago, Toronto and Moscow - which I have found very interesting. In fact even if you lived a temperate continental climate like Chicago and Toronto it is not always subzero, snow and ice all the way for 3 months most winters have milder interludes were the tempeatures go above freezing resulting in a thaw for a bit so at the moment we are giving areas like these a run for thier money which I find amazing! I do think that we will be on this forum again in the not too distant future discussing the specifics of our next snowfall. I wish everyone on this forum a very happy and hopefully snow and cold New Year.

Great post Luke. I hope you folks in the UK continue to get more cold and snow. As much as I love clouds and showery weather, it can wait until March or April.

I live in a humid continental climate here in NW New Jersey (approximately 50-60 MPH northwest of NYC). The whole area (including NYC) was just hit by a huge blizzard with strong winds and heavy snows. Some places received about 30 inches of snow. It was wonderful. But by next weekend they're calling for a thaw with showers and highs in the 40s (around 7.2 C). It can be sad to see the snow melt, but if this winter continues the way it has been, be rest assured that colder and possibly snowier conditions will return.

[Milhouse]

I will release my full winter forecast in a day or two once i get time. (not including December)

In regards to the rest of the winter, i expect all months from January through April to be below average.

Rougth CET as follows...

Jan: 3C (very dry)

Feb: 1C (very cold)

March: 5C (cold but wet)

April: 7C (Chilly but showery)

Indications for summer are currently not good, especially if La Nina persists because we would have the La Nina plus negative QBO combination (aka 2007).

Not a very nice outlook. Looks like 1996 with a bit of 2008.

[The PIT]

I'll make a guess of there will be some sun, some snow and some rain and if we're lucky the odd proper storm that shakes the old slates.

Overall I fancy things to more below average as the quiet sun keeps the jet stream to the south. Drier than normal as well.

Sad too see that one left over the from the even larger teapot that is still in play. The lack of frontal snow on breakdowns.

[Mr Freeze]

What a load of bull, Good god man theres at least 4 months to go and so much model watching, your on the wrong forum if you think it's over

My load of bull is to get people talking about the weather. I also think I am intitled to state my opinion. Can you please also tell me why your so rude and why I am on the wrong forum? Best Wishes!

[cyclonic happiness]

I'll make a guess of there will be some sun, some snow and some rain and if we're lucky the odd proper storm that shakes the old slates.

Overall I fancy things to more below average as the quiet sun keeps the jet stream to the south. Drier than normal as well.

Sad too see that one left over the from the even larger teapot that is still in play. The lack of frontal snow on breakdowns.

That is one of the novelties about these post-modern synoptics isn't it? the lack of zonality...in fact it only seems to occur from late spring, through the summer and into autumn a short way, the winters here are totally devoid of gales and wind in general, it's very strange!

Maybe we are still in a transitional period?

[Mr Freeze]

Well with the things I have read it looks like the rest of the winter going to be pretty damn poor! Oh well looks like the sledge can be stored away for another year, but it was a great winter while it lasted, No complaints from me.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well with the things I have read it looks like the rest of the winter going to be pretty damn poor! Oh well looks like the sledge can be stored away for another year, but it was a great winter while it lasted, No complaints from me.

I certainly think there will be definitely more cold and snow for your location, Jan looks like starting cold, and 5th onwards looks like being cold for your area, now for my area different story, I may see no more snow

[dinger]

Well with the things I have read it looks like the rest of the winter going to be pretty damn poor! Oh well looks like the sledge can be stored away for another year, but it was a great winter while it lasted, No complaints from me.

Looking forward to the replies to this statement Mr. F. Good one

[Summer of 95]

1995/6 from my memory was very much like this winter, except that:

In 1995/6 the prevailing pattern from early Dec to mid March was 1 week cold - 2 weeks mild muck- 1 week cold - 2 weeks mild muck

In 2010/11 it seems to be going 2 weeks cold - 1 week mild muck - 2 weeks cold - 1 week mild muck, and it started a good 10 days earlier.

Although it must be said the "mild muck" period that started just after New Year in 1996 lasted closer to 3 weeks, perhaps the corresponding cold one this year can do the same?

[richardc1983]

Brace yourselves guys this is what is in the mail today:

"Brace yourselves for a 'mini ice age': This winter set to be coldest in 300 YEARS"

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz19ZiWxxrz

[Dorsetbred]

With Ian feeding them a glorious statement

Forecaster Ian Michael Waite said: ‘We expect January to be colder than average – there’s no way we’re moving out of this mini ice age any time soon.’

[Mr Freeze]

I so like the sound of this! But I feel some what ashamed of wishing for harsh weather just because I love it so much.

What about the old, the infirm and people who suffer in these conditions? Just because I wish for it. It's a catch 22 for me, I love it, but yhere can be so much syffering!

Edited December 30, 2010 by Mr Freeze

[Eugene]

1 week mild muck

More like 2 to 3 day near average muck, it was still cold on tuesday in the midlands, temps look like going down from tomorrow night, could be an air frost to bring in the new year in places or temps just around 0C.

Not sure what the OP has been looking at but the cold returns from saturday.

I think people get used to cold very quickly when temps were -7C in the countryside on boxing day i saw lots of people out enjoying it very young to very old, its easy to keep warm indoors nowadays with such well insolated houses and old people homes, you just need lots of layers of clothes if you feel the cold, i feel heat is much worse as its very hard to get away from unless you have expensive air conditioning which not many have.

Edited December 30, 2010 by Eugene

[reef]

The last cold spell hasnt really ended here. Maximum temperatures for the last four days have been 2.5C, 2.3C, 4.6C, 4.3C and minima in the 0-2C range - so at least a degree or two below average.

No single day has recorded a mean above average since 22nd November and 5C has been surpassed in the same time period on only three occasions. The absolute max for December is 7.1C compared to the monthly average mean max of 7.6C.

[Mr Freeze]

Well guys according to last night BBC weather report we are going to get back to average tems for this time of year, and lotts of rain coming in.

[ZONE 51]

Many a winter has been mild...chasing the next potential snowflake on the horizon, not so in the new batch..the new batch of freezing winters, the winters that time forgot..and the ones we won't forget. not certain of a new ice age..but certain of a big freeze..a bigger freeze and a freeze of uncertainty for the future. we keep on wondering whats going on with the climate..the climate thats changed..and the climate that will always do so.

-by nimbilus

Edited January 3, 2011 by nimbilus

[Wales123098]

Brace yourselves guys this is what is in the mail today:

"Brace yourselves for a 'mini ice age': This winter set to be coldest in 300 YEARS"

Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz19ZiWxxrz

Im a Conservative and even I call that paper the daily fail