Annual Cet 2011

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hello all....

I'm a newbie at this. My first guess is 9.25C (a continuation of the cold theme). :whistling:

Good luck as well as a happy new year to everyone.

Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

9.11C

[DeepSnow]

I will take a guess of 9.4C

[virtualsphere]

I'll try 9.2 - a bit warmer than 2010 but not much.

[Roger J Smith]

I think this cold spell has one more year in the tank, so 8.77 C for me.

[Evening thunder]

Think I'll have a go at 9.5C

[Great Plum]

A bit late I know but 9.15c for me!

[Fozfoster]

Bit late sorry. 9.0^oC. 0.75^oC below average. HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Late, but 9.5C

[Mr Maunder]

I expect something warmer, but not outrageously so as we are only slowly climing out of a long solar minumum and I expect the patterns of the last two to three years to continue. Where exactly this ends up could be dicatated by the degree of perisitence of La Nina of the existing NE Atlantic SST anomalies.

Taking all these factors in to account I'll go for 9.55c.

MM

[North-Easterly Blast]

The rolling 12 month average CET is rising rapidly now. At the end of 2010 we were at 8.83*C. By the end of January 2011 we were back above 9*C to 9.02*C. As February looks set now to be very mild with a likely CET close to the 6.5 mark or possibly even warmer, far above the fairly cold February of last year, we will be back up to at least 9.33 by the end of this month. So, now where do we go from here, and how further will it rise before mid-year? In comparison to last year we are now up against a fairly average March, a fairly warm April, and a coolish May. I would say that further rises are likely although the rate of the rise should start to slow down after this month.

With all this mild February now it is now almost reaching the point where a return to the 10+ years of recent times is likely for this year. However, with last year's cool year (8.83) and relatively warm ones in 2009 (10.11) and 2008 (9.96) no year in recent times, has finished anywhere from 9.00 to 9.96.

[Optimus Prime]

If April averages 12.2c the January - April CET will be running 1.58c above normal. Equivalent to a year CET of 11.4c.

April 2010 - April 2011 would average 9.725.

[Isolated Frost]

How's this going?

[summer blizzard]

I calculate the rolling CET upto the end of July to be 9.475C. Going to see a small rise to the end of August before coming up against the average September and October of last year before going up against the cold November and December.

Potential fall to be made during September and October though unlikely to match November and Decembers cumulative total.

Still a good chance of a below average year though provided we do not see a warm Autumn.

[Lettucing Gutted]

If we get a warm autumn on top of the very mild February-May period this will mean that 2011 will be the warmest 10C or more year to achieve a cool summer sub 15C.

[Weather-history]

January-April 2011 was amongst the top 10 warmest first thirds to a year on record but since then with June-August producing nett -ve anomalies, the 8 month period January-August has really dropped down the list, not even in the top 30 now

[SP1986]

I'd say CET wise it might drop below 10C, but bear in mind we did have a warm spring.

My current average mean is running at 11.58C so it's not that low, and will need an exceptionally cold Autumn to shift it significantly below 10C I suspect.

[Optimus Prime]

January - August average is running 0.53c above normal. The year would end at 10.28c if this anomaly were to be sustained.

Or if every month from now on were to come in at average the year would finish with a 0.35c anomaly (10.1c)

If every month were to equal last year; -0.27c (9.48c)

[summer blizzard]

Current rolling CET is 9.483C with August confirmed as 15.4C.

Very unlikely that we wuld be able to match or beat 2010 as September-December had a cumulative anomoly in excess of -6C requiring each month from now to be below average by about 1.5C.

That being said, there is a good chance of gaining ground during September and October and also finishing below the 1981-2010 average, or even the 1971-2000 average.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Current rolling CET is 9.483C with August confirmed as 15.4C.

Very unlikely that we wuld be able to match or beat 2010 as September-December had a cumulative anomoly in excess of -6C requiring each month from now to be below average by about 1.5C.

That being said, there is a good chance of gaining ground during September and October and also finishing below the 1981-2010 average, or even the 1971-2000 average.

If we did then that would be quite an achievement given how warm the spring was!

[North-Easterly Blast]

I calculate the rolling 12 month average CET to Aug 2011 to be 9.48 or 9.49. It is still difficult to say where the year will finish up. If we have a final third like a number of years in the 1990s and 2000s, or a very mild month between now and December then the yearly CET would still be easily above 10*C. If we still see a colder than average month or two in these next four then we will achieve a sub 10*C year. Getting a final third as cold as 2010 seems unlikely, although that said there is a chance if September or October are below average we could loose more off the 9.48 that we are currently at. Then we are up against a cold November and then one of the coldest Decembers on record, so in any case even if these months were below average the chances of them being as cold as 2010 are slim.

[Weather-history]

An average January followed by a very mild snowless spring, a coolish summer and a warm September where the remains of an hurricane struck the British Isles.

That is 1961 I'm talking about here not 2011 but they are sure similiar.

[summer blizzard]

With the September CET confirmed as 15.1C could somebody calculate the rolling CET.

[Optimus Prime]

October 2010 - September 2011 stands at 9.59c. November, December and July are certainly keeping the 12 month rolling down. With December 2010 being so cold (5.8c below normal) It takes April, September and March to cancel December out.

[Isolated Frost]

Near record warm in October, and we are against a sub-5c November and a sub-0c December.

10c plus likely.