South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[kernowman]

I predicted around Boxing day after the last cold spell that Jan and Feb would turn out to be a disappointment for snow lovers, and I got January spot on.

Please let my prediction be wrong for February, but alas it won't be. This is it for another 12 months folks, just a bog standard British winter to come, wet and windy until we go into spring.

Edited January 31, 2011 by kernowman

[weathe20]

I predicted around Boxing day after the last cold spell that Jan and Feb would turn out to be a disappointment for snow lovers, and I got January spot on.

Please let my prediction be wrong for February, but alas it won't be. This is it for another 12 months folks, just a bog standard British winter to come, wet and windy until we go into spring.

What was your prediction based on?

Believe it or not tho, I believe this winter will go down in history as one of the coldest. It's the coldest I've ever known in my humble 29 years on this planet(!). I'm hoping that even if this year is over for us in terms of snowfall, the end of this year will bring the snow and cold back, plus a lovely warm summer so we can use our tent to it's full potential! Only used it the once so far

Which part of this winter will go down in history? No records have been broken.

The cold in November was record breaking in some places, but that was autum.

Edited February 1, 2011 by weathe20

[cheeky_monkey]

I predicted around Boxing day after the last cold spell that Jan and Feb would turn out to be a disappointment for snow lovers, and I got January spot on.

i could predict that every single year and 95% of the time be right..i can only think of last year as being a January with decent snowfall in recent times..then you have to back to 1982 for something similar.

[fromey]

I predicted around Boxing day after the last cold spell that Jan and Feb would turn out to be a disappointment for snow lovers, and I got January spot on.

Please let my prediction be wrong for February, but alas it won't be. This is it for another 12 months folks, just a bog standard British winter to come, wet and windy until we go into spring.

i have a watch which is broken but its still right twice a day!!!!!!!!

[dogs32]

not putting my bets on the winter over just yet!

When we get to the middle of March the likely hood of snow diminshes dramatically compared to past events.

Not over until the fat lady sings.

Still might be some surprises on the way

[caz100]

over in america they are having loads of snow storms, do you think we will get any of there snow???

but it doesnt matter we still have spring to come..

[Frosty_wsm]

lol, massive change on the 06z gfs & ecm and gem are also showing signs of something stiring.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2522.png

[glosteroldboy]

lol, massive change on the 06z gfs & ecm and gem are also showing signs of something stiring.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2522.png

All doom and gloom in the model thread again, can never get to excited so far out, more often than not it wont happen.

[AWD]

All doom and gloom in the model thread again, can never get to excited so far out, more often than not it wont happen.

they seem to of perked up again in there!! A change to colder conditions is apparantely starting to be shown in FI now!! I ain't a model reader anyway so I'll just stick with Richard Angwin!!

[dogs32]

do I hear correct?

Cold on the cards for the middle of Feb.

Or wishful thinking from some...

you decide :smiliz34:

[Weathergirl]

In the last 10yrs of living here, this is the most sustained high winds I've ever experienced. Normally it's over within 12hrs, but this has been going on for almost 36hrs now.

Glad when it goes away, the noise is driving me barmy!

[twister2005]

hi all i see glos and bristol have weather watch out for severe gales

[glosteroldboy]

hi all i see glos and bristol have weather watch out for severe gales

Seems to have died down here, for now anyway. Yesterday was worse than today.

[weathe20]

Some excitement gathering regarding an Easterly. Theres three ways this can go for us:

1. Cold and dry with sunshine, snow showers in the East

2. Very cold uppers across the country with powder snow falling in our region from showers, heaviest in the East with large accumulations.

3. Non event that disappears at T96.

[Frosty_wsm]

Some excitement gathering regarding an Easterly. Theres three ways this can go for us:

1. Cold and dry with sunshine, snow showers in the East

2. Very cold uppers across the country with powder snow falling in our region from showers, heaviest in the East with large accumulations.

3. Non event that disappears at T96.

Actually you missed one

4. A southerly tracking jet with lp's tracking to the south of the uk giving us potentially alot of snowfall.

There certainly is alot of interest in the models at the moment, be interesting to see which way it goes but a very cold second half of feb is something the models keep bringing up.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some excitement gathering regarding an Easterly. Theres three ways this can go for us:

1. Cold and dry with sunshine, snow showers in the East

2. Very cold uppers across the country with powder snow falling in our region from showers, heaviest in the East with large accumulations.

3. Non event that disappears at T96.

I think no. 3 is by a long way the most likely

[glosteroldboy]

Actually you missed one

4. A southerly tracking jet with lp's tracking to the south of the uk giving us potentially alot of snowfall.

There certainly is alot of interest in the models at the moment, be interesting to see which way it goes but a very cold second half of feb is something the models keep bringing up.

This appears to be a possibility atm, "battleground scenario" being mentioned, the SW could do very well out of such a situation.

As it is though I think most of is have learnt not to get too excited by charts beyond a few days, even getting too excited by snow forecasts more than 12 hours in advance has given us alot of let downs all ready this winter.

[weathe20]

Actually you missed one

4. A southerly tracking jet with lp's tracking to the south of the uk giving us potentially alot of snowfall.

There certainly is alot of interest in the models at the moment, be interesting to see which way it goes but a very cold second half of feb is something the models keep bringing up.

Number 4 never happens. The block is too strong, stopping lows undercutting, or the block becomes weak with a snow to rain event.

Undercutting never seems to happen.

Anyway, the cold shown the last couple of days seems to be disappearing from the models.

[Wynn D Woo]

Anybody else getting a bit fed up with the constant strong wind? A number of fences around and about look to be on the verge of going if this keeps up much longer!

[legritter]

morning all ,its looking interesting for next week .had a good look at the charts and its looking like some knife edge events , but at the moment they could be almost anywhere . the one im hoping for is a good old fashioned frontal event . 24hrs before front arrives , a nice halo around moon ,the following day wind picking up . snow arriving about 8pm ,the first 8 hrs we get 20cms at minus 1c . then 8hrs at 3cm an hour at minus 3 , but seriously feb 18 ,19th 1978 me and my Ist wife tried to travel from bristol to taunton on the sunday morn ,we turned back it was like a white hell ,that was a low moving s e ,from sw ireland to breast peninsula , the se wind tapped into some cold surface air over the continent .the rest of that winter and before was normal , of course the following winter 78 ,79 , was a beauty .dont give up , still time left .im of to weston to have a look at pier tomorrow , its supposed to be the best day of the week . regards legritter .

[Bristawl Si]

a low moving s e ,from sw ireland to breast peninsula , the se wind tapped into some cold surface air over the continent .the rest of that winter and before was normal , of course the following winter 78 ,79 , was a beauty .

The type of situ you described here are always the best for us - and yes, 78/79 was the best winter i've experienced in terms of cold and real fierce blizzards.

By the way i think it's Brest peninsula - you must have had something else on your mind!

[caz100]

america is having lots and lots of snow, its in the newyork area, and i always think what they get uk gets about a week later...heres hoping..

[knocker]

morning all ,its looking interesting for next week .had a good look at the charts and its looking like some knife edge events , but at the moment they could be almost anywhere . the one im hoping for is a good old fashioned frontal event . 24hrs before front arrives , a nice halo around moon ,the following day wind picking up . snow arriving about 8pm ,the first 8 hrs we get 20cms at minus 1c . then 8hrs at 3cm an hour at minus 3 , but seriously feb 18 ,19th 1978 me and my Ist wife tried to travel from bristol to taunton on the sunday morn ,we turned back it was like a white hell ,that was a low moving s e ,from sw ireland to breast peninsula , the se wind tapped into some cold surface air over the continent .the rest of that winter and before was normal , of course the following winter 78 ,79 , was a beauty .dont give up , still time left .im of to weston to have a look at pier tomorrow , its supposed to be the best day of the week . regards legritter .

Yep it was very unpleasant around the 19th legritter. If it's of any interest the chart for 00z on the 19th.

[glosteroldboy]

america is having lots and lots of snow, its in the newyork area, and i always think what they get uk gets about a week later...heres hoping..

Any evidence for that or is it just a bit of a myth? I mean they had lots of snow throughout January and we didn't see any here. Its true the weather systems tend to track over here but doesn't mean it will fall as snow.

[legritter]

what a mistaka to maka ,idid mean to say BREST , thanks BRISTLE BOY for pointing that one out . also thanks to WEATHER SHIP for posting that chart . still learning computer plus keyboard . it is good for our hobby to have all this information at our fingertips .i know i could reply to each poster personally but knowing my luck i will leave that untill im sure of what im doing . .fantastic sunset tonight ,watched the starlings heading back to their roost this afternoon ,heading about SOUTH OF SE , about a quarter of a mile due west of their flight path out this morning .i wonder how many will make it till tomorrow , anyhow thats nature .