South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[dogs32]

:smiliz19:

Good luck to them that havent seen much

tricky situation I reckon...take all with a pinch of salt...

Im going with Laura Tobbin's point of view myself

Edited January 5, 2011 by dogs32

[glosteroldboy]

One last fling of winter on Jan the 7th......what???

[dogs32]

One last fling of winter on Jan the 7th......what???

:w00t:

Its happened before

Though this wasnt intended to be taken seriously

Expect NAE to chop and change myself

[willinkent]

:w00t:

Its happened before

Though this wasnt intended to be taken seriously

Expect NAE to chop and change myself

too true! Its nowcasting..... the best thing about our weather....expect the unexpected.....

[AWD]

Right..............

After Reading posts both in here and on the model thread ( more so there ), I'm quite shocked and amused at some of the posts!!

Firstly, winter is NOT over by any means whatsoever! How can anybody say that just because the Atlantic is going to return next week! It's only the beginning of January! Charts don't even touch Febuary yet, and plus, there is potential of colder weather towards the end of the month, to which I'll return to in a minute!

Remember, the reason why a lot of us like snow and cold is because we don't see it too often! It's different to our normal wet and mild days! If it were to always snow and we were regularly in the freezer then it wouldn't be different, it would be normal and we would all find it boring after a while! So, I for one don't want snow all the time, it wouldn't be the same otherwise! Thts what I love about winter, trying to forecast when that little bit of snow is coming, and when our double negative temps are coming! It's different!

Secondly, to carry on from above! Who cares if the Atlantic comes back for a while! It will be refreshing to see our accustomed winter days back! It's not going to last forever! The rain and milder temps is something we haven't seen since November, so we can't exactly moan about it! There could be some strong winds and heavy rain about, so still fun for those model watchers amongst us!

Thirdly, there is continued support for colder air to return to the UK towards the end of the month! This as been a regular feature in the last few model runs now! Whilst it's deep into FI, therefore the usual rules apply, it's something to watch out for! The Met office outlook as consistently been pointing towards a colder end to january, and the models are starting to go along with this now! It's doesn't mean it will happen, the mild Atlantic weather coming may well last for weeks, it's a possibility, but a return to colder conditions is just as much a possibility, if not slightly more likely, with the growing support for cold! I don't buy the predicted mother of all easterlies being thrown about the model thread, nor do I buy the everlasting mild Atlantic weather, what I do buy is a return to colder but much drier conditions towards the end of the month! Snowfall is likely to be minimal, but that's just a hunch!!

Lastly, the potential snow in the next 72 hours!! Tomorrow looks more likely to be a Devon, South Somerset and Dorset event now! Snow will fall over the moors, Salisbury plain and other areas of high ground! Lower ground is likely to have rain and sleet mixed in, but snow can't be ruled out in favoured areas here either! However, and this is just my opinion now, with tomorrow event progged further south, this surely means the colder air as managed to get further south too, therefore increasing the likelyhood of snow on Friday for areas north of Somerset! I think North Somerset northwards will see a period of snow Friday morning, before the milder air moves in and turns it all back to rain! Most areas, bar cornwall, in our region will see snow falling over the next 72 hours!!

To summarise then, please no posts about winter being over and it's all mild for eternity now, because that's not the case! There is snow in the next day or two, then there is mild then there is anything!! It has been a fantastic winter for cold lovers, some of the best snowfall in some areas ( worst in Bristol ) lol!

Bring on Febraury I say..........

[dogs32]

There must be chopping and changing Extreme..as Philip Avery is going back for the M4 Northwards..

Very heavy snow as it slowly pushes Northwards..

Though some uncertainty yet again how fast it will move up from the South and how much there will be.

But he seems confident of the heavy variety

edit..

I would say a huge upgrade with the computer graphics from Carol Kirkwood for the South/Somerset and Devon up through the Midlands

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Edited January 6, 2011 by dogs32

[Phelpsy]

Yes from what i seen earlier we are looking to get hammered Dogs!! Just a shame the rain has to wash it away after :smiliz46: lol!!

[glosteroldboy]

:w00t:

Its happened before

Though this wasnt intended to be taken seriously

Expect NAE to chop and change myself

Doesn't seem very likely to be the end of winter though so early even with a mild incursion, we are living in different times.

Know you're half joking but seems like soon as there's a sign of mild spell some throw in the towel or delight in saying that's it, winters over.

1963 didn't really even kick off until late January? Not saying we're likely to have a 63 but we have no idea how long it may turn milder.

[Jane Louise]

At least it'll be nice to watch the snow fall even if it does get washed away

[farmer2555]

has anyone seen joe b's post on accu weather not good readding and he usually aint too far wrong

[SteveB]

Yes I think a snow to rain event for people south of the M4.

As other have said, it will be nice to look at, and could even have a covering in the morning before the rain washes it away.

Still think this winter is classic, with the now record breaking December, and near average Jan, which as has already been proven, can deliver snow events.

Edited January 6, 2011 by SteveB

[Weathergirl]

Do you think the schools might be closed tomorrow? :winky:

[BristolBlizzard]

from met -monkey

[Nights King]

Was surprised leaving the house this morning for work to find heavy sleety wet snow faslling however nothing at work in bristol and it aint gonna do anything at home.

Hows our chances for tonight into tomoro?

from met -monkey

Is that square stand for 60% over mullenders hills? :smiliz23:

[weathe20]

Right..............

After Reading posts both in here and on the model thread ( more so there ), I'm quite shocked and amused at some of the posts!!

Firstly, winter is NOT over by any means whatsoever! How can anybody say that just because the Atlantic is going to return next week! It's only the beginning of January! Charts don't even touch Febuary yet, and plus, there is potential of colder weather towards the end of the month, to which I'll return to in a minute!

Remember, the reason why a lot of us like snow and cold is because we don't see it too often! It's different to our normal wet and mild days! If it were to always snow and we were regularly in the freezer then it wouldn't be different, it would be normal and we would all find it boring after a while! So, I for one don't want snow all the time, it wouldn't be the same otherwise! Thts what I love about winter, trying to forecast when that little bit of snow is coming, and when our double negative temps are coming! It's different!

Secondly, to carry on from above! Who cares if the Atlantic comes back for a while! It will be refreshing to see our accustomed winter days back! It's not going to last forever! The rain and milder temps is something we haven't seen since November, so we can't exactly moan about it! There could be some strong winds and heavy rain about, so still fun for those model watchers amongst us!

Thirdly, there is continued support for colder air to return to the UK towards the end of the month! This as been a regular feature in the last few model runs now! Whilst it's deep into FI, therefore the usual rules apply, it's something to watch out for! The Met office outlook as consistently been pointing towards a colder end to january, and the models are starting to go along with this now! It's doesn't mean it will happen, the mild Atlantic weather coming may well last for weeks, it's a possibility, but a return to colder conditions is just as much a possibility, if not slightly more likely, with the growing support for cold! I don't buy the predicted mother of all easterlies being thrown about the model thread, nor do I buy the everlasting mild Atlantic weather, what I do buy is a return to colder but much drier conditions towards the end of the month! Snowfall is likely to be minimal, but that's just a hunch!!

Lastly, the potential snow in the next 72 hours!! Tomorrow looks more likely to be a Devon, South Somerset and Dorset event now! Snow will fall over the moors, Salisbury plain and other areas of high ground! Lower ground is likely to have rain and sleet mixed in, but snow can't be ruled out in favoured areas here either! However, and this is just my opinion now, with tomorrow event progged further south, this surely means the colder air as managed to get further south too, therefore increasing the likelyhood of snow on Friday for areas north of Somerset! I think North Somerset northwards will see a period of snow Friday morning, before the milder air moves in and turns it all back to rain! Most areas, bar cornwall, in our region will see snow falling over the next 72 hours!!

To summarise then, please no posts about winter being over and it's all mild for eternity now, because that's not the case! There is snow in the next day or two, then there is mild then there is anything!! It has been a fantastic winter for cold lovers, some of the best snowfall in some areas ( worst in Bristol ) lol!

Bring on Febraury I say..........

Fair enough. If Jan (which looks like it will) and Feb turn out to be a normal winter, ie mild with the odd colder days this winter won't go down in history for this region. Lets be honest Extreme you have moaned very much about the lack of snow in your back yard, so if this winter ends without a period of snow cover for you will you still call this a superb winter? I doubt it.

You talk of cold being shown in deep FI, you are correct. But if we were in a cold spell now I bet you would dismiss any FI charts showing mild because its FI!!

[AWD]

According to 0z NAE, there could be some heavy snow around for most of our region tomorrow morning, this continuing in places north of the M4 into the afternoon! Could be some decent totals before it all turns back to rain!!

Sorry, can't post link to charts as on iPhone!!!!

[BristolBlizzard]

Was surprised leaving the house this morning for work to find heavy sleety wet snow faslling however nothing at work in bristol and it aint gonna do anything at home.

Hows our chances for tonight into tomoro?

Is that square stand for 60% over mullenders hills? :smiliz23:

yes i think it is .

[Jane Louise]

I hope I don't have to say this again!! But PLEASE stop bickering, it's bad enough over in the MO thread!! It seems to be looking good for all of us, so LET'S try and keep positive eh!!!

[weathe20]

I hope I don't have to say this again!! But PLEASE stop bickering, it's bad enough over in the MO thread!! It seems to be looking good for all of us, so LET'S try and keep positive eh!!!

I think we need some realism here about tonights and tomorrows snow. By late morning tomorrow anything falling from the sky will be rain. I cant quite see the excitement about 3 hrs of snow forecast for Bristol before it rains. Give me a sunny day over this type of slush and rain event anytime.

[AWD]

According to 0z NAE, there could be some heavy snow around for most of our region tomorrow morning, this continuing in places north of the M4 into the afternoon! Could be some decent totals before it all turns back to rain!!

Sorry, can't post link to charts as on iPhone!!!!

in reply to Weather20 above,

the reason I am talking about the potential cold in FI is to flip the coin on the many calling this winter over! Like I said in my post above, it could quite easily not come off, but at the same time it could quite easily come off, so to call winter over when there is still further potential in the many days ahead is abserd!! I'm trying to show why I think this winter is not over yet, and trying to back it up with support and evidence rather than making wild comments!!

Yes, I have moaned about the lack of snow IMBY, for those of us around the Bristol area we all have! It's very frustrating to see snow so widely across the region, yet little where you live! However, at no time have I called this winter a rubbish winter!! It's far from that!

Just because I personally have had little snow, the temps I have recorded here have been quite remarkable for a city like Bristol!! Yes, I would have liked more snow too, but just because there has been a lack of snow doesn't mean winter has been a right off! Plus, as I keep saying, there is plenty of time for that too change yet!!

Whilst I have moaned about the lack of snow IMBY, that has been purely out of frustration at that time! At no time have I made silly assumptions that winter is over, that this winter is rubbish etc, because none of that is true!

I don't know what is going to happen through the rest of winter, if I did I would be a very rich man, I'm just trying to balance it out with posts saying mild is here to stay, with a view to potential cold returning!!

We have some very interesting model watching ahead in the next couple of weeks to see if any cold will be returning, so let's enjoy that and enjoy the lovely wind and rain we will see next week!! ( oh and the snow for the lucky ones tomorrow )

right this winter of at your peril!!!!

[Nights King]

I think we need some realism here about tonights and tomorrows snow. By late morning tomorrow anything falling from the sky will be rain. I cant quite see the excitement about 3 hrs of snow forecast for Bristol before it rains. Give me a sunny day over this type of slush and rain event anytime.

Beggers can't be choosers either though and for a fair few in our region that have seen less than a couple of inches throughout this winter so far the thought of a possible transient event giving a couple/a few inches before it gets washed away is worth getting excited over! Also it is'nt cut and dry as to how long it will snow/rain for so could end up being a decent event for us or it could be gone before we wake up.

I remain positive after all Forecast this morning is rain not sleet/snow which they have at home albeit very wet and useless as im in bristol working.

Edited January 6, 2011 by mullender83

[MP-R]

Beggers can't be choosers either though and for a fair few in our region that have seen less than a couple of inches throughout this winter so far the thought of a possible transient event giving a couple/a few inches before it gets washed away is worth getting excited over! Also it is'nt cut and dry as to how long it will snow/rain for so could end up being a decent event for us or it could be gone before we wake up.

I remain positive after all Forecast this morning is rain not sleet/snow which they have at home albeit very wet and useless as im in bristol working.

It's snowing where you live? Beats here where it's just raining, though the temperature is falling now. Perhaps we need the precipitation to get a bit heavier. Imagine what this would be like if it was all snow falling.

[Frosty_wsm]

I think we need some realism here about tonights and tomorrows snow..

I'd say people on here are being realistic, they know any snow that settles wont be around for long but who cares, personally I like seeing snow falling and couldn't really care less about whether I get any settling snow or not!

[AWD]

I'd say people on here are being realistic, they know any snow that settles wont be around for long but who cares, personally I like seeing snow falling and couldn't really care less about whether I get any settling snow or not!

same here mate!! I know it is going to be very temporary, but still, the opportunity of seeing heavy snow falling for a short period of time is exciting!!

I also like strong winds ( not as much as heavy snow though, lol ), so I'm a little interested in the gales and possibly severe gales we could get during the Atlantic regime next week!!

A lot to look forward too in my opinion, something for everyone!!

[dogs32]

Yes from what i seen earlier we are looking to get hammered Dogs!! Just a shame the rain has to wash it away after :smiliz46: lol!!

Yes I hate to say this in front of Mullender but at present it looks like Glos is in the firing line of possible prolonged snow

before some rain or melt

and yes CARDIFF

3-6+ HRS MAYBE??? OF HEAVY SNOW

Edited January 6, 2011 by dogs32