South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[SteveB]

I am amazed by peoples comments,

We have just had a record breaking cold December, Jan & Feb & indeed December 2009 all had severe cold spells with plenty of snow. November 2010 is a classic example of how it can look bad then for it to come good.

November was looking like it was going to be a very mild month, turned out, thanks to a really cold last week to come in below average with also a bit of snow.

We are in a far better position than we were pre 2009 winters.

We now know we can get history breaking cold spells, up until Jan 2010, people were writing off ever getting a sub 3c CET winter months ever again in our life times.

I think most would have been happy with a average Jan, which is probably what we are likely to get. We still have Feb which is a month that can have extreme cold. Even March can have extreme cold, you only have to look back over the CET records to find Marches with CET of 1,2 or 3c (we just had the second coldest December on record) so why not!.

Edited January 6, 2011 by SteveB

[Bristawl Si]

Actually, I reckon that's it for snow for quite a while now. Those models don't show any signs of a return to what we had in December. I forecast damp squibs and let-downs for the next 6 weeks

Agreed to some extent Noggin - maybe not next 6 weeks though .

I think some people, esp on the Mod Disc Thread, have been guilty in the last 24 hours of a severe case of hopecasting, and that includes some of the more learned members.

One of the main 'players' (who shall remain nameless) was only saying a few days ago that things for this weekend would vastly improve for snowlovers in the UK, as the trend this winter was for cold and snow to be modelled ever further south and east as each days' runs happened - well it ain't going to happen!

This trend for less cold weather (maybe mild at times) with rain for large swathes of the UK has been modelled for the last few days now and, if anything, the trends have got stronger - forget the next 10 days for snow/cold - as for further into Jan and Feb we shall see.

[Nights King]

I am amazed by peoples comments,

We have just had a record breaking cold December, Jan & Feb & indeed December 2009 all had severe cold spells with plenty of snow . November 2010 is a classic example of how it can look bad then for it to come good.

November was looking like it was going to be a very mild month, turned out, thanks to a really cold last week to come in below average with also a bit of snow.

We are in a far better position than we were pre 2009 winters.

We now know we can get history breaking cold spells, up until Jan 2010, people were writing off ever getting a sub 3c CET winter months ever again in our life times.

I think most would have been happy with a average Jan, which is probably what we are likely to get. We still have Feb which is a month that can have extreme cold. Even March can have extreme cold, you only have to look back over the CET records to find Marches with CET of 1,2 or 3c (we just had the second coldest December on record) so why not!.

Yes and no,

Yes it has been record breaking cold and nice to see all the sub zero days however for a few like myself we have seen less snow than many years pre-2009 even if it has layed around longer, I cant say i have seen one heavy snow fall this winter with just a few very light falls amounting to a total of just 3/4cm this winter. I bought a sledge and as yet have not had chance to use it!

So winter so far is ok temperature wise but more memorable for the meto warnings that flop one after the other.

[glosteroldboy]

I am amazed by peoples comments,

We have just had a record breaking cold December, Jan & Feb & indeed December 2009 all had severe cold spells with plenty of snow. November 2010 is a classic example of how it can look bad then for it to come good.

November was looking like it was going to be a very mild month, turned out, thanks to a really cold last week to come in below average with also a bit of snow.

We are in a far better position than we were pre 2009 winters.

We now know we can get history breaking cold spells, up until Jan 2010, people were writing off ever getting a sub 3c CET winter months ever again in our life times.

I think most would have been happy with a average Jan, which is probably what we are likely to get. We still have Feb which is a month that can have extreme cold. Even March can have extreme cold, you only have to look back over the CET records to find Marches with CET of 1,2 or 3c (we just had the second coldest December on record) so why not!.

I agree with all of that, I think people start fretting that the first sign of anything mild is a return to the baron winters from pre 2009, not helped by "mildies" who love baiting in the model thread!

After a phenomenal run in 2010 winter months (Jan, Feb, Dec) we were due something less cold but seems way too soon to think winters over.

[SteveB]

Yes and no,

Yes it has been record breaking cold and nice to see all the sub zero days however for a few like myself we have seen less snow than many years pre-2009 even if it has layed around longer, I cant say i have seen one heavy snow fall this winter with just a few very light falls amounting to a total of just 3/4cm this winter. I bought a sledge and as yet have not had chance to use it!

So winter so far is ok temperature wise but more memorable for the meto warnings that flop one after the other.

Well you can't please everyone.

I really hope you get to see your knee deep snow with drifts over your head, I think there is more chance of that post 2009, than pre 2009.

[Nights King]

Well you can't please everyone.

I really hope you get to see your knee deep snow with drifts over your head, I think there is more chance of that post 2009, than pre 2009.

Yes quite true lol I was merely pointing out that there is a central swathe of the west country including part of bristol that somehow missed out on every event and has left a few of us feeling abit peturbed when we see every warning downgraded 12 hours before it occurs.

Anyway it looks like even glouc is going to be clutching at straws going of latest GFS...

As noggin said I should get on and book that holiday because I will need therapy if I don't get away soon. :wacko: :w00t:

Edited January 6, 2011 by mullender83

[Dartmoor_Matt]

The NW radar has the precip around 10miles south of here at the moment, and its looking like its going to be rain all the way.

We shall see.

[SteveB]

Yes quite true lol I was merely pointing out that there is a central swathe of the west country including part of bristol that somehow missed out on every event and has left a few of us feeling abit peturbed when we see every warning downgraded 12 hours before it occurs.

Anyway it looks like even glouc is going to be clutching at straws going of latest GFS...

As noggin said I should get on and book that holiday because I will need therapy if I don't get away soon. :wacko: :w00t:

I think the southwest was just unlucky with the snow this time around. At least the synoptics were there for snow.

[BARRY]

The NW radar has the precip around 10miles south of here at the moment, and its looking like its going to be rain all the way.

We shall see.

Tis rain yer boy mind you watching spotlight David Braine said that the reservoirs were only 78% full so we need it

[Rob125]

Yes and no,

Yes it has been record breaking cold and nice to see all the sub zero days however for a few like myself we have seen less snow than many years pre-2009 even if it has layed around longer, I cant say i have seen one heavy snow fall this winter with just a few very light falls amounting to a total of just 3/4cm this winter. I bought a sledge and as yet have not had chance to use it!

So winter so far is ok temperature wise but more memorable for the meto warnings that flop one after the other.

You should have brought your sledge a few miles down the road on the morning of 18 December as there was 11cm of snow in Midsomer Norton - strange you only had 3/4cm further up the Mendips.

[Nights King]

You should have brought your sledge a few miles down the road on the morning of 18 December as there was 11cm of snow in Midsomer Norton - strange you only had 3/4cm further up the Mendips.

I know it was really strange that everywhere lower down had more snow on that day! Shepton mallet and Norton and even tropical wells all had good falls and all within just a few miles of me. Really has been just unlucky for a few like steve said. Cold was here for ages and always seemed to just clip or miss each passing snow event. Frustration has got the better of me this year lets see if I can find a few flakes in the Alps?

Been skiing for 7 years now in a row and never seen a flake abroad! although conditions nearly always been excellent so cannot complain on that front.

I wonder if tonight will bring any last twist to this log flume of a ride or are we just in for a wet splash at the end? :w00t:

Edited January 6, 2011 by mullender83

[kumquat]

I feel Mullender's pain! Cardiff and South Wales have had severe dumps, as have Gloucester, and further south in Somerset. Dorset and Devon got hammered. Even WESTON managed a good amount! I honestly think I've had no more than 1.5 cm of snow in Winterbourne. Even on a local scale, I think Noggin mentioned 2 inches in Downend - thats literally 2 miles away. I'm very jealous lol - but, of course, SteveB you are right - very much a change for the better compared to pre 2009 winters.

Steve Murr posted some interesting stuff re today's 12z ECM run in the model thread just recently - pointing to build up Greeny high, East-based NAO and the cold pool over Western Russia ready to make a move. Could be worth keeping an eye on over the next week or so of milder stuff.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67703-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2023709

Was he the one who should remain nameless BB? lol

[Bristawl Si]

Steve Murr posted some interesting stuff re today's 12z ECM run in the model thread just recently - pointing to build up Greeny high, East-based NAO and the cold pool over Western Russia ready to make a move. Could be worth keeping an eye on over the next week or so of milder stuff.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2023709

Was he the one who should remain nameless BB? lol

I will not name, as i have a lot of respect for the guy i referred to - it's just this time around his call is wrong.

It's also interesting to note that BFTP keeps referring to around 13th Jan, as a 'pivotal' period in this winter - watch this (or his) space!

[knocker]

Just an update with the 1800 chart.

[quantock girl]

Looks like it will be a rain event tonight here in West Somerset.

Such a shame, to be shown the charts the other day and think 'snow', then to have it cruelly taken away by this morning charts!

I will cling to the eternal hope that they MAY be wrong and the cold may be further south and snow will fall.

[khodds]

Hmmm... I'm not so sure... Temp and dew points falling away nicely here, temp currently 2.1c and dew pt 1.0c.

We might be pleasantly surprised!

[Schmac]

Evening all...

Very slim chance of snow for most of us now then... Shame... I was half expecting to see some snow today based on the forecast a couple of days ago!

Temperature here down to 1.9ºc with a Dew Point of 1.5ºc... Not much chance of any snow at the moment!

Oh well, hopefully this upcoming milder spell won't stick around too long!

Hmmm... I'm not so sure... Temp and dew points falling away nicely here, temp currently 2.1c and dew pt 1.0c.

We might be pleasantly surprised!

Lets hope so!

[legritter]

evening all,just been out for a fag , i live in winscombe .the temp as dropped the last hr . on xc weather temp at filton down 1c .i still think we could see 2hrs of wet snow .been studying weather for 40 odd yrs .our local gritters went out from the winscombe yard 20 mins ago at 21 .15 any how i wont be radar watching tonight as i only give it 45 percent .dont give up on future cold spells , iv just spent the last 2wks reading near misses with snow .royal meteorological weath magazines iv collected over the yrs .i think we could be back in business about the 18th jan . lets hope we get a good scan high with a ridge to scotland . familys of lows moving along the channel dont tell the gang up north our turn will come .seriously over 2 months left must close ,my wife needs the computer .

[textmum]

Working on the assumption that when we had snow the roads weren't gritted at all near us, I have a feeling we won't see any snow/ice etc- the gritters have been out and even gritted the bus route down Lobleys Drive!!

[Nights King]

Temperature is falling away quickly now here. 0.0c maybe there is still hope but shame it may be rain by morning

[Frosty_wsm]

Temperature is falling away quickly now here. 0.0c maybe there is still hope but shame it may be rain by morning

Don't think it matters how cold it is, going by the latest met office radar there wont be much of anything falling, it's very patchy indeed with the more organised ppn way out west of cornwall and that lot isn't heading our way, or is this band of ppn meant to intensify as it moves north?

[AWD]

I agree with all of that, I think people start fretting that the first sign of anything mild is a return to the baron winters from pre 2009, not helped by "mildies" who love baiting in the model thread!

After a phenomenal run in 2010 winter months (Jan, Feb, Dec) we were due something less cold but seems way too soon to think winters over.

Totally agree!! There is still more winter suprises for us yet I feel!!

Anyway, GFS and ECM FI still keen on

bringing colder conditions back at the end of the month! Remember, the GFS was the first to see this milder spell back in FI, so maybe it's the first to be seeing a next cold spell!'

its been in several runs now so something to keep an eye on!!

This milder spell feels weird! We haven't had wind rain etc for so long now, it doesn't feel as depressing as what previous winters have!!

Someone very lucky might get snow tonight, maybe, just maybe!!!!

Edited January 6, 2011 by Extreme11

[Nights King]

ppn is heading into sout of county it would be nice to have some one on the ground in this area to tell us if its rain/sleet/snow etc.

Im gonna wait see what falls then go to bed.

[alijoe]

ppn is heading into sout of county it would be nice to have some one on the ground in this area to tell us if its rain/sleet/snow etc.

Im gonna wait see what falls then go to bed.

Yes I was hoping for some feedback as well but it is so quiet in here lol. Here in magor, (first junction of m4 new severn bridge) the temps are rising to 3.2 and dew point 2 so expect nothing here but really interesting all the same. Good luck to you though as I know it will make your day lol. Actually rising again to 3.3 dewpoint 2.5 wow TROPICAL lol

Edited January 7, 2011 by alijoe

[Nights King]

Yes I was hoping for some feedback as well but it is so quiet in here lol. Here in magor, (first junction of m4 new severn bridge) the temps are rising to 3.2 and dew point 2 so expect nothing here but really interesting all the same. Good luck to you though as I know it will make your day lol. Actually rising again to 3.3 dewpoint 2.5 wow TROPICAL lol

I have the ppn aproaching and it should be here very soon now and current temp is 0.5c so it could be interesting.

Rob McElwee mentioned possible early snow on mendips and other hills of south although in same breath he said it would be melting by 8am if not already gone.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Jane Louise