South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[AWD]

There is a met office weather watch out for 2 - 5cm of snow over higher ground ( above 200m ) in the far south west!! Maybe a surprise or two here!!

Models this evening have brought back hope again, admittedly for more northern areas of the country! However with massive short term changes like this, and a large amount of uncertainty still, perhaps there is a couple of straws left for us to clutch still!!

[Nights King]

Now i am confused!

met office weather warning is still in force but the wording would sugest that they expect any snow to be in north yet the warning is set for west country regions??

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly Devon Plymouth Somerset Torbay

Ice is expected on untreated roads during Sunday night and Monday morning. Further rain over Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn to snow on hills above 200 metres, with the risk of accumulations of 3 to 6cm to low levels over parts of central Scotland during Monday.

Issued at: 1107 Sun 13 Feb

[glosteroldboy]

Now i am confused!

met office weather warning is still in force but the wording would sugest that they expect any snow to be in north yet the warning is set for west country regions??

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly Devon Plymouth Somerset Torbay

Ice is expected on untreated roads during Sunday night and Monday morning. Further rain over Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn to snow on hills above 200 metres, with the risk of accumulations of 3 to 6cm to low levels over parts of central Scotland during Monday.

Issued at: 1107 Sun 13 Feb

All seems a bit meh anyway, chance of a few cm's on higher ground that will melt very quickly (if it ever settles?) once the showers pass.

Edited February 13, 2011 by glosteroldboy

[SteveB]

Looks like a showery week coming up, maybe some one will be lucky enough to catch a rumble of thunder or two.

[Nights King]

I'm so glad the meto warned me of the dangerous snow and ice conditions this morning outside it was truely terrible.

At one point I thought I was going to get a wet foot if it were not for my lightning quick reactions that allowed me to dodge that puddle

clear and sunny morning with a light frost over night but nothing else.

Edited February 14, 2011 by mullender83

[legritter]

i had the same problem here in winscombe , mullender 83 , had to clear a path for the wife . i built the wife a snowman and put her val flowers on top . there was a halo around moon about 6.30 pm tonight .lets hope that cold block to our ne wins out .

[SteveB]

Some nice showers making there way up the Bristol channel.

[weathe20]

Well is it time to sum up this winter for the SW? With nothing in the pipe line so to speak regarding any cold maybe it is????

If you take winter from December 1st to now it has been very disappointing in terms on snow, infact nearly a right off. In my location 3 inches fell a week before Christmas which lasted until 27th when the thaw began.

The period of cold at the end of November was impressive, but no PPN, just cold, and technically it was Autum.

Since Christmas...well.....umm I have nothing to say really. The odd frost...umm thats it.

So hopefully im writing this with a huge sting in the tale to come...but just cant see it.

So the hype regarding this winter, gulf stream shutting down crap and many other stories from dodgy Polish scientists, this winter has nearly been a non starter IMBY except for the cold but mainly dry Xmas period.

Even mild weston super mare got more snow than all of us from a 3 mile wide streamer from Wales..mental.

[dogs32]

So I take it there is nothing in the Pipline?

Havent had much time to really know whats going on but according to the above posts Winter could go out with a bang :lol:

Edited February 17, 2011 by dogs32

[glosteroldboy]

So I take it there is nothing in the Pipline?

Havent had much time to really know whats going on but according to the above posts Winter could go out with a bang :lol:

Doesn;t look like it, absolutely no snow on the cards for 90% of the country and no chance of a proper freeze by the looks of things. I remember people saying winter was over back in January and I always said seems a bit early to write it off but I say as we enter latter Feb we can do so now, I'm looking for the first sunny 20 degree day now.

[Frosty_wsm]

. I remember people saying winter was over back in January and I always said seems a bit early to write it off but I say as we enter latter Feb we can do so now.

Bit crazy to write of winter, even as we approach the latter end of feb, march can also be a cold month! But cold or mild, I don't mind either way, the gfs 12z shows a nice early taste of spring but with cold runs still showing in the ensembles, I wouldn't write off more cold and snow just yet if I were you.

[jethro]

Snow, snow go away and take your frost with you..... Personally I'm keeping everything crossed that we won't get any more bitterly cold weather - Magnolia Stellatta full of flower buds, ditto a large, mature Tree Peony, they'll be less than impressed with severe frost.

Lost a mature, fruiting Lemon tree this winter, it was well wrapped in a greenhouse; there's a heater too, allegedly keeping the greenhouse frost free Water pump also bit the dust, drained down and supposedly safe what with being empty of water and in the heated greenhouse - didn't stop the casing cracking in half.

All in all, an expensive winter.

[glosteroldboy]

Bit crazy to write of winter, even as we approach the latter end of feb, march can also be a cold month! But cold or mild, I don't mind either way, the gfs 12z shows a nice early taste of spring but with cold runs still showing in the ensembles, I wouldn't write off more cold and snow just yet if I were you.

I was saying the same as you a 5/6 weeks back but it's getting very tiring/boring looking for the next cold snap that just doesn't seem to want to happen again this winter.

[Frosty_wsm]

I was saying the same as you a 5/6 weeks back but it's getting very tiring/boring looking for the next cold snap that just doesn't seem to want to happen again this winter.

Exactly why I'm not looking for the next cold spell although it's very possible to have cold & snow in march and even april but at the moment it's looking very mild and possibly very spring like as we enter march, if the current model output verifys that is.

[Frosty_wsm]

You just have to laugh at the latest 18z gfs, what a turn around, it's a very cold run & it's not an outlier either, the control follows the operational and the ensembles have trended alot colder!

No doubt tomorrows runs will show another flip back to mild & an early taste of spring.....or will they!

[glosteroldboy]

You just have to laugh at the latest 18z gfs, what a turn around, it's a very cold run & it's not an outlier either, the control follows the operational and the ensembles have trended alot colder!

No doubt tomorrows runs will show another flip back to mild & an early taste of spring.....or will they!

Yes. Must admit when I seen the model thread last night was surprised some people were getting carried away. It was one model run from one model and the GFS is always doing this!

[Wilxy]

Intresting looking charts today with high pressure keen to build to are south, also keeping an eye out on the high that might build in the alantic its in FI tho.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Lovely day today, sat out with t-shirt on at lunch, pretty chilly when the sun went behind a cloud, but otherwise a real sense of spring! Lovely

[knocker]

Intresting looking charts today with high pressure keen to build to are south, also keeping an eye out on the high that might build in the alantic its in FI tho.

I must admit that I find this completely uninteresting. One chart in fantasy land?

[Nights King]

Well this weather has bored me half to death over the bulk of this winter (jan/feb) not even a flake.

I hope we get a decent fall of snow in the spring at least once to make up for a mostly poor winter.

Snow drops are starting to come out at home now which looks nice although daff's are a fair way off yet.

[knocker]

As things are very quiet in here I thought a quick reminder of the storm of March 2008 might be of interest. I came across this site containing a number of images of Sennen Cove that are definately worth a look.

http://www.sennen-co...m/10march08.htm

Sennen Cove ~ 10th March 2008

A combination of a vigorous depression with a centre pressure around 960mb, westerly storm force winds with gusts to 85mph, accompanying sea swell up to 35 feet and a large spring tide produced the severe conditions shown below.

Local opinion seems to be that these were the worst conditions, in respect of height of sea and potential damage, since an occasion in 1952 when three fishermen were washed off the slipway by a huge sea whilst attempting to move boats.

Two of the fishermen were saved but sadly the third lost his life. The boat was also lost.

A couple of charts for 1200z. You can see from the plots it was blowing a hooligan in Cornwall.

Edited February 22, 2011 by weather ship

[Frosty_wsm]

GFS just doesn't want to give up on giving us one last taste of winter!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2404.png

Another red herring or perhaps a trend setter, we will find out over the next few model runs I guess.

[glosteroldboy]

GFS just doesn't want to give up on giving us one last taste of winter!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2402.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn24017.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2404.png

Another red herring or perhaps a trend setter, we will find out over the next few model runs I guess.

I'm not saying anything :unsure:. Well ok just a little bit, how many times in the last 2 months has something been in the offing but just doesn't get close? This is what is must of felt like being a model watcher pre 2009? I only started taking an interest last winter, guess was spoilt up until the last 2 months! Seems like were doomed to a pretty uneventful February along with January, not sure the early March prospects look that great and after time is rapidly running out for any proper freeze up. I'm very a much a seasonal man, I love cold/snow and I love hot, just at the right times of year! Moving into March I shall be hoping for some nice sunny warm (well mid teens. ) When do we change to Spring discussions here by the old way (March 21st) or the new way?

Edited February 25, 2011 by glosteroldboy

[Nights King]

Just had our first wintry shower this year! :lol:

Started of as rain then it turned to hail and sleet as the temperature fell away.

[alex123456]

Just had our first wintry shower this year! :lol:

Started of as rain then it turned to hail and sleet as the temperature fell away.

Wooooo glad someone has!