February CET

[Thundery wintry showers]

I also think that February 2008 passed by without a flake of snow in most parts of the country. January 2008 saw hardly any snow either. January and February 2006 hardly saw any snow in most parts of the country, and so did January 2005. December 2002 also passed by without a flake of snow in most parts of the country. Regarding snowless Februarys, I also think that as well as 2008, Febs 1997 and 1998 could not be far off.

I think it depends on what we're classifying as "snowless"- I was thinking of months where a large majority of lowland Britain didn't see any snowfall. February 2008 almost made this category but there were widespread snowfalls in the north and also East Anglia on the 1st, and in Norwich, an area of sleet moved in during the evening which turned to snow and gave a couple of centimetres on the ground. I recall that snow fell quite widely from easterly winds in the last third of February 2006 although accumulations were only localised.

Indeed, Febs 1997 and 1998 weren't far off either, with just the odd day of scattered wintry showers. There's a fairly long list of near-approaches, but I can't find any Februarys in the last 40 years that approached the level of snowlessness of, say, a January 1989.

You are right about December 2002, I didn't mention it because we'd had more recent snowless Decembers.

[Snowyowl9]

NEB you are forgetting feb 2006 easterly snow showers/and potent N-ly again on the 28th widespread snow showers.

Feb 2008 now that was poor but not as bad as this month looks to be.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think it depends on what we're classifying as "snowless"- I was thinking of months where a large majority of lowland Britain didn't see any snowfall. February 2008 almost made this category but there were widespread snowfalls in the north and also East Anglia on the 1st, and in Norwich, an area of sleet moved in during the evening which turned to snow and gave a couple of centimetres on the ground. I recall that snow fell quite widely from easterly winds in the last third of February 2006 although accumulations were only localised.

Indeed, Febs 1997 and 1998 weren't far off either, with just the odd day of scattered wintry showers. There's a fairly long list of near-approaches, but I can't find any Februarys in the last 40 years that approached the level of snowlessness of, say, a January 1989.

You are right about December 2002, I didn't mention it because we'd had more recent snowless Decembers.

Januarys 2005 and 2006 actually saw no snowfall in most parts of the country I think. Jans 2007 and 2008 were not far off either.

[damianslaw]

NEB you are forgetting feb 2006 easterly snow showers/and potent N-ly again on the 28th widespread snow showers.

Feb 2008 now that was poor but not as bad as this month looks to be.

Mmm looking back at the past 20 Febs - I'm surprised at the number of snowless ones or those with just one morning/day of snow cover and this for the Lake District a preety snowy part of the country..

2010 and 2009 were snowy

2008 - no snow

2007 - one morning with snow cover only

2006 - some snow in the second half

2005 - some light snow in the second half

2004 - a snowy tail end

2003 - no snow

2002 - slight dusting one morning

2001 - snowy start and end

2000 - one morning with snow cover in an otherwise very mild atlantic dominated month

1999 - a snowy second week

1998 - no snow until the last day

1997 - no snow

1996 - very snowy a superb Feb for snow

1995 - some snow showers in the second half but nothing exceptional , perhaps one morning with snow cover only

1994 - a snowy middle to latter half , alot of snow on the 22nd nearly a foot a forgotton event

1993 - no snow until the tail end

1992 - no snow

1991 - very snowy first half

So it isn't that rare to see a snowless or very nearly snowless Feb in these parts as shown by 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1992. Going back a further 5 years we had a trio of snowless or nearly snowless Febs in 1988, 1989 and 1990.

[Snowyowl9]

Of my records feb 1998 comes 2nd to last currently.

1993 would be last as there was no snow recorded yet until the 26th.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley has recorded a 0.3C drop from yesterday. The CET now stands on 7.0C (Feb 1 - 15).

[Thundery wintry showers]

The most recent completely snowless February in Norwich occurred back in 2000 according to Tutiempo.net's stats, with a very near approach in 2002 (just the one day of wintry showers on the 23rd). For a February free of snow cover, going by reports from the local area, we probably have to go back only to 2007.

In Cleadon I am still yet to record a completely snowless February in records going back to 1993, though those of 1995, 1997 and 1998 were near-approaches with just the odd day of wintry showers. The most recent February without a >50% snow cover at 0900 there occurred in 1998, though that month had a dusting early on the 1st- the last completely snow cover free February was 1997.

Re. the Januarys of 2005-08, I think 2006 and 2008 were both near-approaches, but 2006 had snow flurries in places from a SE'ly around the 5th-8th, and 2008 had snow showers in northern areas from a rather more potent south-easterly on the 3rd. 2005 had wintry showers periodically between the 18th and 25th (though limited accumulations at low levels) and 2007 had a wintry spell 22nd-25th.

[summer blizzard]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

6.8C to the 17th.

CET will likely fall over the next few days, though even i must write off a sub-6C finish now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going by the 12z GFS it looks like we'll be at

6.7C to the 18th

6.5C to the 20th

6.4C to the 22nd

6.6C to the 24th

6.7C to the 25th

[Kentish Man]

The CET per Hadley is on 6.5C today (Feb 1 - 19).

The models seem to be backing away a little from a complete blow torch end to the month so maybe a 7C+ finish is looking less likely despite the TM incursion between Wednesday and Friday of this coming week

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET is 6.4C ot the 20th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 4.3C. Minimum for today is down as 2.9C and maxima look like being a little over 5C so 6.3C by tomorrows update looks a good bet.

Looking ahead, going by the GFS 06z we'll be at

6.2C to the 22nd (4.7)

6.4C to the 23rd (9.1)

6.5C to the 24th (10.2)

6.7C to the 25th (10.6)

6.8C to the 26th (9.6)

6.8C to the 27th (6.1)

6.8C to the 28th (6.8

I'd say 6.7C to 6.9C to most likely finish before corrections.

[lukemc]

Hi,

If this winter finishes around 6.5 to 6.7 CET as projected would this February be the mildest since 2002? Would it be our mildest February for 8 years?

Luke

[Don]

Hi,

If this winter finishes around 6.5 to 6.7 CET as projected would this February be the mildest since 2002? Would it be our mildest February for 8 years?

Luke

Yes that would make it the mildest Feb since 2002. It's highly likely now that this February will be the mildest for 8 years!

[damianslaw]

CET is 6.4C ot the 20th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 4.3C. Minimum for today is down as 2.9C and maxima look like being a little over 5C so 6.3C by tomorrows update looks a good bet.

Looking ahead, going by the GFS 06z we'll be at

6.2C to the 22nd (4.7)

6.4C to the 23rd (9.1)

6.5C to the 24th (10.2)

6.7C to the 25th (10.6)

6.8C to the 26th (9.6)

6.8C to the 27th (6.1)

6.8C to the 28th (6.8

I'd say 6.7C to 6.9C to most likely finish before corrections.

I think the CET may be 6.2 tomorrow due to rather suppressed maxima today adnd minima down to 2 degrees for many. Tomorrow looks quite chilly in the CET zone as well so we could be down to 6.1 degrees by wednesday, thereafter a climb is likely so by saturday we could be around 6.6-6.7 degrees tops, don't think we will be quite as high as 6.8 degrees, a slow fall by the end of the month and a slight adjustment suspect finishing mark will be 6.5 degree mark.

A very mild Feb - and not one I would like to a repeat of in the future - very dissapointing on so many scores a month to forget.

[Don]

Yes that would make it the mildest Feb since 2002. It's highly likely now that this February will be the mildest for 9 years!

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.3C to the 21st

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 4.3C. Minimum for today is 3.3C and maxima look like being around 8.0C, so we'll probably remain at 6.3C by tomorrows update.

Once again, going by the 06z GFS we should be at

6.4C to the 23rd (9.2)

6.6C to the 24th (10.5)

6.8C to the 25th (10.6)

6.8C to the 26th (8.5)

6.8C to the 27th (5.2)

6.7C to the 28th (5.3)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not a snowless February in Norwich or Cleadon after all- Norwich Airport reported snow flurries early this morning while Cleadon had a bit of sleet mixed with rain.

In the meantime it's looking likely to be the warmest February in "CET-land" since 2002, but less exceptional in Scotland.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not a snowless February in Norwich or Cleadon after all- Norwich Airport reported snow flurries early this morning while Cleadon had a bit of sleet mixed with rain.

In the meantime it's looking likely to be the warmest February in "CET-land" since 2002, but less exceptional in Scotland.

Indeed, we're running about 1C above average at the moment but with uppers here generally having been below 0C we've had numerous hill snow events and the odd low ground snowfall, though these have generally only given slight coverings for short periods of time as temperatures in most parts have stayed above freezing pretty much every night. It's meant we've had a decent ski season, though with perhaps excessive precipitation and a major lack of sunshine. Flooding is an issue too, and as snow melts even at high munro level tonight many rivers will be fairly close to bursting their banks. By no means a memorable month for Scotland, but certainly nothing like as mild or snowless as the month experienced further south.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, we're running about 1C above average at the moment but with uppers here generally having been below 0C we've had numerous hill snow events and the odd low ground snowfall, though these have generally only given slight coverings for short periods of time as temperatures in most parts have stayed above freezing pretty much every night. It's meant we've had a decent ski season, though with perhaps excessive precipitation and a major lack of sunshine. Flooding is an issue too, and as snow melts even at high munro level tonight many rivers will be fairly close to bursting their banks. By no means a memorable month for Scotland, but certainly nothing like as mild or snowless as the month experienced further south.

I remeber from last winter that the December 2009 and January 2010 combination was the coldest on record. Given that Scotland had a much colder January than England, did you beat that combination this winter?

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.4C to the 23rd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 8.2C. Minimum for today is 7.8C and maxima will most likely be over 12C possibly 13C, so an increase to 6.5C or 6.6C by tomorrows update.

On the 06z GFS it looks like we'll be at

6.7C to the 25th (10.5)

6.8C to the 26th (8.4)

6.7C to the 27th (5.1)

6.6C to the 28th (3.8

[Norrance]

I remeber from last winter that the December 2009 and January 2010 combination was the coldest on record. Given that Scotland had a much colder January than England, did you beat that combination this winter?

For Eastern Scotland that would be a yes. December's mean was more than 2c below the cold December 2009's. January's about 1c above that of Jan 2010. Without checking the stats I cannot be sure but I think that I am correct with this.

Feb being a good bit milder this year [but not as mild as further South]means that the overall Winter will not be so cold though I imagine. Mean for Winter last year was 0.3c.

Sorry if heading a bit off topic.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remeber from last winter that the December 2009 and January 2010 combination was the coldest on record. Given that Scotland had a much colder January than England, did you beat that combination this winter?

According to the latest Met Office data, yes, by about 0.3C:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/date/Scotland.txt

[reef]

Hadley is now 6.7C to the 25th. Yesterday was 9.9C.

Another small increase possible on tomorrow's update as today's min is down as 7.0C. After that it will be a slow fall.

[Isolated Frost]

6.7C (+3.0C of Feb1-26 average) to the 26th.

6.4C to 6.6C before adjustments, anything between 6.1/6.2C and 6.5C should be in the running.

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.7C to the 27th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.3C. Minimum for today is 2.2C and maxima will probably be around 5.5C-6.0C, so almost sure to finish on 6.6C before adjustments.

6.4C or 6.5C after adjustments most likely I'd say.

Edited February 28, 2011 by BornFromTheVoid