Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[Iceberg]

93L might be interesting in the short term depending on when it hits land, the area of yellow currently in the central atlantic though is the most interesting (assuming it develops).

I've been watching the globals etc on it and GFS has shown this developing into a strong Major Hurricane for 6 consecutive runs now as it hits northern Florida. ECM also has a Major Hurricane now hitting Northern Florida/S.Carolina.

This is very impressive consistence, since no invest has yet been named for it the tropical models have not yet been ran on it, so it's still early says.

Further on we have a tropical storm dropping straight of the African coast in a few days time.

If the models are right the ACE score will start to go into rapid speed soon.

[Iceberg]

The unnamed area above has now been updated to 97L, this looks like a slow burner and a TD is not likely in the next 2 or 3 days until conditions improve as it goes just to the north of the Carib islands. Once it reaches this area the globals have near 100% perfect conditions hence the development shown but this is still too far away to be trusted atm. The tropicals should kick in on the 18Z and some 12Z tropical models which will give us a better indication of things like verticle shear effects etc.

[Iceberg]

Tracks from the 12Z's.

[Iceberg]

Well take it with a pinch of salt but the 12Z ECM is forecast 97L to develop into a GOM major monster with TS winds from Mexico, to Cuba to Florida almost to New Orleans.....

[Cookie]

98L

[Iceberg]

93L is now TD 8, but it already being effected by land interaction.

97L is going through it's trying to survive phase whilst it battles dry air and moderate shear, it will find much much better conditions though if it can survive and this mornings globals are again opimistic of a major.

98L (just leaving Africa and nicely seen thanks to the fantastic picture from Cookie above) is very well organised hence the 40% from the NHC, however its long term prospects are not good, it has to travel a path with shear, dry air and SST's down to 26C which will struggle to give the warm core much energy. Phase analyst shows that it's not warm cored yet.

Although saying the above this could become TD 9, but is not expected to develop into a hurricane or effect land in anyway.

Edited August 19, 2011 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

97L is starting to get it's act together as it enters the more favourable environment and higher SST's bang on time. It's punched it's way though the dry air and is starting to get a bit more convection.

The global GFS 12Z has a monster of a storm again as it avoids land and takes a track across Florida, not good news for Floridians,,,,

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 99L has formed to the southwest of Invest 98L, and is in close proximity to the latter. This may complicate the development of 98L as it looks like 99L has an increasingly well defined circulation. This image shows both invests off the west coast of Africa, with two vortexes close together.

From CIMSS:

[Iceberg]

This might help to show everything that is around at the moment and there is a fair bit.

99 and 98L might well interact with each other IMO, however they are both on a NW course and will suffer from the dry air and lower SST's after a few days days. Before that they certainly have the ability to develop a bit.

97L is still trying to organise and has been upgraded to a Red alert by NHC, the convective area should increase as the dry air is squeezed out.

[Coast]

As of 5AM TD#8 was still heading toward the northern coast of Honduras.

Invest 97L continues to churn westward toward the Lesser Antilles, although not a depression yet, the Hurricane Center has given it a medium chance to become a depression in the next 48 hours :

A number of models want to bring this storm up to hurricane status, and many want to bring it into the Gulf by late next week.

98L:

99L:

[summer blizzard]

97L certainly has a wierd sattelite presentation possibly indicating two centres, one being Emily like in being ahead of the main bulk.

[summer blizzard]

Just another thought but if we can get 97L and 99L developed before the end of August then we will only be just 2 storms behind 2005 to the end of August.

[mezzacyclone]

Post on another forum indicates Hunter recon now airborne from St Croix V.I and due to arrive 18:30-19:00 BST (1:30-2 PM EDT)

a very interesting report awaits despite similarities with Emily?

(addundum: 97L btw )

Edited August 20, 2011 by mezzacyclone

[Iceberg]

Just about to update at 20.00 with the latest models etc for 97l, but recon have only found a very well organised open wave, no LLCC. Still winds of 30kts but not a TD yet !, won't be long though.

[Iceberg]

97L is still doing very well even without an LLCC, any real development isn't progged to happen for another 2-3 days so anything earlier is a bonus(is one sense of the word).

I've been trying to find a model that does not produce a major hurricane causing alot of damage to Florida, UKMET, GFS, ECM 12Z's all produce a hurricane, as does the HWRF.

GFDL is less keen but this seems to be an initialisation issue.

Anyway here's the prognosis for Florida, GFS and ECM the worst as it has the Monster pretty much going up the whole spine of Florida. GFS at one point keeps TS winds from the north boarder to the keys, with 100-120kt winds for some at various points.

One of the factors the models seem to be picking up on are the high octane 31C 32C SST's between Cuba and Florida, with all other conditions favourable it would really be mixing dynamite with a small flame.

[Iceberg]

Recon are still around and and she could well be forming the vital LLCC before their very eyes, NW and SW winds found but not the critical West to close of the circulation, however pressure has started dropping and winds of just over 50kts have been recorded, quite astounding for a non system.

Centre around 14.5 and 57.7

[Paranoid]

Are those 50kt winds gusts or sustained winds? If they're sustained that is remarkable for a system that's not even a cyclone, as you said.

[mezzacyclone]

I offer those were squall gusts P?

The last pass has gone through a stable sector with no sign of wind shift?

although their was some earlier further south, likewise with Don and Emily strangely enough?

One point i`m sure you`ll agree on is the amount of convection!

Be interesting decoding the next data as they head back into the northern sector that earlier had 40 knot surface wind speeds.

Will dexy midnight runners be singing "come on Irene" before morning?

[mezzacyclone]

unofficial sources but here she is, Irene no.9 due to the last vortex data message.

NHC should update very soon with possibly a special advisory? Dont think they`ll hold out until the 8pm standard due to the potential this has?

oh, almost forgot, the 2nd pass confirmed the established LLC!

Edited August 20, 2011 by mezzacyclone

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, we have Irene. The organisation has improved dramatically this evening. I do not have a good feeling about Irene. It was a harmless storm back in 2005, and I hope I am wrong but I don't think this will be the case this time.

Edited August 20, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

We have now invest 90L which is also due to develop over the medium time frame, probably a fisher but too early to really know.

[mezzacyclone]

90L becoming more interesting?

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER

ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED

ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM

HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Mezza, this has a real shot at becoming Jose in my opinion. Convection is becoming more concenerated about the low pressure area, and unlike with 98L to the northwest, 90L has much lower shear and warmer waters for continued development. You can see in the CIMSS shear image the area of low shear (10kts) ahead of the system, as opposed to the 60kts of shear destroying 98L to the northwest:

[mezzacyclone]

and just upgraded again SS so your on the ball i`ll agree in terms of "Jose"

[Somerset Squall]

90L continues to get better organised, and NHC have raised TC formation chances to 60%. Formative banding features are appearing and convection continues to persist near the LLC.