Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[summer blizzard]

,,and again as per the 2011 season SB its gonna be strangled eventually due to the abundant shear and diminishing higher SST`s not to mention inevitable recurve.

not far off a TD now though according to all estimates but another typical african wave looking very well set but destined for nothing more than a low end cane at best and even thats very unlikely even if it stayed on a low lat course?

Yes, assuming it becomes a TS though, then just one more by the end of September is needed to tie 2005.

This season in my opinion is actually being punished because of its own success. Instead of making it into the Carribean, the systems are developing in the mid-Atlantic and thus being caught by the troughs.

The fact that waves are still coming fairly often though does indicate that we may be able to get some Carribean/GOM October storms.

[Paranoid]

How come shear is high this year (well, it seems to be affecting systems a lot more than i remember), i thought during a La Nina shear over the Atlantic was relaxed.

[summer blizzard]

How come shear is high this year (well, it seems to be affecting systems a lot more than i remember), i thought during a La Nina shear over the Atlantic was relaxed.

Shear is only high in certain regions, namely north of Haiti this year as an upper level low has been present. Because there has also been a +PNA (east coast trough), systems have turned northward earlier and headed into that region.

[summer blizzard]

Just a heads up but i have been looking at the upcoming pattern and it seems that an Azores Low will be present for the next 7 days providing shear over the western Atlantic. It also appears that high pressure will build over the eastern USA correspondingly.

With this in mind it may be worth watching the wave coming off of Africa because if it stays weak then it is unlikely to develop until after 40W when unlike Maria and Ophelia it will be greated with high pressure over the eastern USA. The general pattern also looks good enougth to get it to at least 60W developed or not.

In summary, watch out for the developing system next weekend heading for the Carribean/Florida.

My October forecast is also for 4 named storms with at least one hurricane (major).

Edited September 25, 2011 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

GFS remains commited to building the ridge over the eastern USA next weekend, so still game on for potential action.

[summer blizzard]

The wave that i mentioned for the weekend is still under Phillipe but weak as Phillipe is inflicting shear.

ECWMF develops a Carribean Cruiser at day 8 making a run for Cuba/Florida!

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The next system may come from a tropical wave near 30W now.

ECWMF also has a system developing in about 10 days west of Florida.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.nhc.noaa....fb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The next system may come from a tropical wave near 30W now.

ECWMF also has a system developing in about 10 days west of Florida.

My wave is looking good as i will show in the NHC description below...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N31W TO 8N34W MOVING W AT 10-15

KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE

ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN

THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND MODEST AMOUNT OF CLOUD

SIGNATURE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED

MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN

29W-38W.

GFS12z made this Rina has shown it a few times now. Synoptics look good for a potential Carribean Cruiser.

[summer blizzard]

It looks as though we are about to see a surge in activity. Between the GFS and ECWMF, we see 3 storms developing within the next 10 days.

First will be Rina which both have developing near Florida at day 5.

[summer blizzard]

GFS and ECWMF seem to be in pretty full agreement that over the weekend we see a system developing between the west of Cuba and the Florida straights, becoming a closed system on sunday/monday. Afterward, it either hits NW Florida, moves over Florida into the Atlantic or moves into the Atlantic and then recurves into the Carolinas.

[summer blizzard]

Rina to be is now an invest at 30%, models are in good agreement that this will be named tommorow evening/Monday morning.

A very beefy looking tropical wave around 50W as well.

[onlyME]

I think that Invest 95L won't develop in next two days.

Look at this weak vortex near Yucatan,far west from sheared main convection.

[Somerset Squall]

95L has dissipated.

We have 96L in the extreme western Caribbean. The invest has a good amount of spin and increasing convection. 96L has been given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs by the NHC, which I think is a fair assessment. Dry air lurks to the east of the system, but this shouldn't be enough to prevent development in the low shear and sea temps of around 30C.

[knocker]

95L has dissipated.

We have 96L in the extreme western Caribbean. The invest has a good amount of spin and increasing convection. 96L has been given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs by the NHC, which I think is a fair assessment. Dry air lurks to the east of the system, but this shouldn't be enough to prevent development in the low shear and sea temps of around 30C.

The dry air and shear mentioned by SS at 00z.

Edited October 22, 2011 by weather ship

[knocker]

96L dry air and deep layer wind shear for midnight.

[Somerset Squall]

96L has gradually pulled it's convection towards the center of circulation whilst drifting northwards. Development chances are 70% from the NHC, and they say a tropical depression could form later today/tonight.

Invest 97L is moving into the eastern Caribbean. NHC only give a 10% chance of TC development but I disagree. Convection is increasing near the LLC which appears to be closing off. If current trends continue, we could have a tropical depression sooner rather than later. Conditions are somewhat favourable for development through the Caribbean, which is where latest models have 97L heading.

[Coast]

With less than a month remaining in it, 17 named storms have emerged so far this hurricane season, ensuring this will be one of the most active years on record. Yet five of those storms were so weak that a few decades ago they likely would have been overlooked. Indeed, between 1900 and 2002, the National Hurricane Center estimates, it failed to identify more than 240 systems that might have been tropical storms but were mistakenly deemed too weak or went undetected because they were too far out in the ocean to be studied. Climatologists further guess that of those, 75 were hurricanes. Thanks to the satellite era, which came full force in the mid-1970s, forecasters are able to better estimate the strength of even the most distant systems. In the past 35 years, they have spotted dozens of storms that previously would have been discounted, 18 in the past five years alone.

“There has been a sizable increase in the number of short-lived, generally very weak tropical storms during the last couple of decades, said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County. A major ramification of so many missed storms: 2005, thought to be the busiest season on record with 28 storms, might actually be second to 1933, when, officially, 21 storms were spotted. Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who develops seasonal forecasts, noted that all 21 of those storms emerged on the west side of the Atlantic, meaning several storms could have developed unseen on the east side that year. “Given that there was no aircraft reconnaissance or satellite data in 1933, it is a possibility that several storms were missed,†he said.

Bolstering that theory is that 21 of the 28 storms in 2005 formed on the west side of the Atlantic, the same number as in 1933, Klotzbach said. Other years prior to the satellite era also might have been busier than their current rankings indicate, including 1887, when 19 storms were recorded, and 1936, when 16 storms were observed. Another consequence of so many undetected storms: Past periods of hurricane intensity might have been just as busy as the current era, which started in 1995, Landsea said.

Those periods included one at the end of the 19th century and one that lasted from the 1930s through the 1950s. Many scientists believe the eras are the result of a natural cycle. Yet some believe the current era has been fueled by climate change, stemming from human-fueled greenhouse gases. Satellites have been “crucial†in determining which systems actually are tropical storms, Landsea said. From studying detailed satellite images of a storm’s structure, forecasters can closely estimate a storm’s strength. “If you have band of thunderstorms that curves halfway around a cyclone, that’s usually when it’s a tropical storm,†Landsea said. “When the thunderstorms wrap all the way around and when we see an eye, it becomes a hurricane.â€

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, or GOES, in 1975 became the primary tools to detect where and how strong storms are. Forecasters also rely on polar-orbiting satellites to relay how strong winds are at the surface of the seas. Landsea said that when storms are close enough to land, hurricane hunter aircraft can fly into them and accurately determine wind strength. But he noted the planes only are able to fly into about 30 percent of the systems.

Some residents, by way of blogs and social media, say they would prefer not to know about seemingly inconsequential storms, only realistic threats. Yet identifying distant storms is important to warn mariners of potential peril, Landsea said. “There are a lot of ships out there over the open ocean, including cruise ships with lots of passengers and commercial ships,†he said. “So we take it pretty seriously to let the marine community know there’s a tropical storm out there, even if it is weaker and shorter-lived.â€

http://www.nashuatel...re--missed.html

[Somerset Squall]

Very interesting read Coast, especially about 1933. I would love to know if that season was actually more active than 2005. There's a good chance it is. I guess we will never know.

We have invest 98L well east of Florida. This is a cut off gale force low which appears to be acquiring subtropical characterists. NHC give a 60% chance of subtropical cyclone formation in the next 48hrs as the system drifts westwards.