Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[Paranoid]

Ah! Thank you very much, i was probably just being utterly useless with technology as per usual. Looks like the shear at 50W is linked to Katia, might it relax a little once she moves off to the North?

[mezzacyclone]

We can see more in character with Irene as opposed to Katia with this one, regardless of the dealings it has to go through with the northern shear tagging along on the westward track.

Only concerns, in terms of development and not possible life endangerment, are NHC`s unwillingness to develop until into the SW Bahamas (Turks & Caicos Islands)?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850300mbsheartropicalGFSLoop.html

therefore echoing your comments to some degree as above SS? where they are taking into account little strengthening due to the 20kn Shear plots to the North also proximity of various ULL`s?

Still, a small disturbance with higher probable landfall tracks always outweigh the big fish?

[Somerset Squall]

Ah! Thank you very much, i was probably just being utterly useless with technology as per usual. Looks like the shear at 50W is linked to Katia, might it relax a little once she moves off to the North?

Could well be Paranoid, especially as Katia has an impressive equatorward outflow channel which would cause the shear. Shear is notoriously difficult to predict any further than 24hrs out as obviously the upper levels are changing pretty much constantly. But I find CIMSS the best bet for checking out current shear values.

We can see more in character with Irene as opposed to Katia with this one, regardless of the dealings it has to go through with the northern shear tagging along on the westward track.

Only concerns, in terms of development and not possible life endangerment, are NHC`s unwillingness to develop until into the SW Bahamas (Turks & Caicos Islands)?

http://raleighwx.ame...calGFSLoop.html

therefore echoing your comments to some degree as above SS? where they are taking into account little strengthening due to the 20kn Shear plots to the North also proximity of various ULL`s?

Still, a small disturbance with higher probable landfall tracks always outweigh the big fish?

Indeed to you last sentence Mezza. 95L is at very low lattitude so it may travel further west than Katia. However, 95L seems to be developing quickly and the faster it forms, the more poleward it will track (unless there is some persistantly strong ridging to the north). Going to be another long tracker I think, and interesting to watch.

[summer blizzard]

95L now at 70%. All models take this to at least 70W.

96L has formed in the south western GOM and is forecast to become a hurricane according to most models with a slow track into the Florida Panhandle. dry air to the north may be an issue however.

[Gray-Wolf]

Any chance of linking me to the GOM forecasts S.B.?

[summer blizzard]

Any chance of linking me to the GOM forecasts S.B.?

They were based on the ECWMF and GFS, i did not see them persoanlly put have been reading the relevant thread on american.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'll pop over and have a gander! Ta muchly!

EDIT: Yup a lot of natter, seems like a 'slow boil' is the order of the day and the final track seems 'variable' with GFS doing a 180 on the panhandle track to a 'slips onland where it formed' one? I'm sure we'll know more later but those waters look pretty hot!(31c?)

Edited September 6, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Paranoid]

95L now up to 90%. I think a circulation is becoming evident so i expect we'll have TD14 within the next day or so unless the shear to the north starts to affect it.

Edited September 6, 2011 by Paranoid

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

95L now up to 90%. I think a circulation is becoming evident so i expect we'll have TD14 within the next day or so unless the shear to the north starts to affect it.

I was looking at the NHC front page when it changed to TD14, so let's see if this ends up as a fish

[Somerset Squall]

Latest track suggests not but let's hope otherwise all the same!

[Cookie]

95L became Marie

and we now have 96L which at the next update will become Nate

[Iceberg]

Just opened a thread on that Cookie, Recon found some surprising winds which forced NHC to classify it as Nate even though it was only going to be a TD.

[summer blizzard]

indeed nate looks very organised on sat though. 3 more named storms and we are ahead of 2005.

[Cookie]

indeed nate looks very organised on sat though. 3 more named storms and we are ahead of 2005.

we need another 9 to be ahead of 2005

[summer blizzard]

i meant upto the end of sep. 2005 also had 28 storms to our 14 upto now so we would need 15 not 9.

[Cookie]

i meant upto the end of sep. 2005 also had 28 storms to our 14 upto now so we would need 15 not 9.

sorry my maths was a bit all over the place then!

[Jack Wales]

98L seems to be getting it's act together, NHC give it a 60% of becoming a TC within the next 48hrs...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

From looking at the satellite image, there's no closed circulation as yet and the system appears to be impacted by light southwesterly sheer.

[summer blizzard]

Now upto 70% and i agree with your assertion.

Looks pretty good though and importantly is moving at just about 10mph directly westward.

Likely to be a FISH however there is a chance that it could reach the Carribean.

[summer blizzard]

Circulation looks closed now. This should be declared a TD at the 02:00 update.

[Cookie]

98L

[Somerset Squall]

Convection is a bit shallow at the moment, I think the NHC may wait for this to improve before an upgrade IMO.

[summer blizzard]

Convection is a bit shallow at the moment, I think the NHC may wait for this to improve before an upgrade IMO.

Difficult call right now is this one.

While you are correct that convection is shallow, it is just about over the centre and there is clear evidence of westerlies making it a closed circulation.

Either way, it looks a slow burner to me as a current marginal TD.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/hurricane_images/track.png

Good map here. The front in the Gulf may provide shear in a few days and prompt a turn north however i think that it should be able to avoid it providing it is in the Carribean before it reaches 15N.

[summer blizzard]

Should note that 99L is just north of the Leeward Islands moving slowly west at the moment. Only the SHIPS model predicts development and the NHC give this a 0% chance of development.

[summer blizzard]

90L is born.

Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands at the moment but looks good and is forecast to head WNW pretty much straight away. LGEM takes this to a category 2 within 3 days.

[mezzacyclone]

90L is born.

Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands at the moment but looks good and is forecast to head WNW pretty much straight away. LGEM takes this to a category 2 within 3 days.

,,and again as per the 2011 season SB its gonna be strangled eventually due to the abundant shear and diminishing higher SST`s not to mention inevitable recurve.

not far off a TD now though according to all estimates but another typical african wave looking very well set but destined for nothing more than a low end cane at best and even thats very unlikely even if it stayed on a low lat course?