Atlantic Invest Thread 2011

[Paranoid]

Some of the models i've looked at have trouble tracking this system, so i don't know what its potential for further development is. If this does develop into a ts soon, it could give the ACE value a bit of a boost, as Cape Verde systems often do.

[stuboy]

This now appears to be a Tropical Depression, not a million miles away from being upgraded to a Tropical Storm. Worth keeping an eye on as it moves west-northwest.

Edited August 25, 2011 by stuboy

[Paranoid]

The models seem quite keen on a system coming out of the Cape Verde region, perhaps making it to minimal hurricane strength (difficult to tell simply from isobars) whilst halfway or so across the Atlantic. Seems to be heading either towards the Caribbean or up towards the Bahamas and Florida, similar to the path Irene took earlier in the week. .

[Iceberg]

92L looks very nice and should be in a good environment provided it doesn't follow the northern route a few models suggest.

This is ECM is 10 days time as it slowly moves across the atlantic.

[Somerset Squall]

Upto 40% now from NHC. As you say Iceberg, as long as it doesn't head too far north into the shear, it has a good shot at developing.

[Paranoid]

The models still seem pretty confident on this developing into at least a TS, although if it avoids the shear to the north it could quite easily become a hurricane. Not quite as much consensus on the track, still uncertainty on whether it'll head into the Caribbean or up towards Florida although this is more than a week down the line.

[Somerset Squall]

We may need to watch ex-TD10 as well, though shear is still strong convection is making a comeback east of the LLC. NHC only give a 10% chance of redevelopment however, but look what happened with TS Jose.

[mezzacyclone]

NHC have raised the stakes to 70% TC formation for 92L no doubt the very low 5-10kn shear forecast a major decider but still so far out with high probability of formation have certainly got it a lot of attention already and the mid-atlantic ridge may well ease a westerly track anywhere between W 270° & WNW 292.5° causing concern for the lesser antiles & leeward islands etc. before a sharp turn NE threatening Bermuda but all tracks highly uncertain this early as opposed to the general alert for development regardless if a fish or not?

[Paranoid]

92L has just been upgraded to near 100%, so could likely be TD11 by the 0300 UTC advisory.

[Iceberg]

92L has been upgraded/is in the process of being upgraded to TD12. A Long 10 day follow on this one....

[summer blizzard]

New Invest in the GOM. Currently at 10% and moving north west however convection looks strong and there is evidence of a weak circulation. Potential TS hit in Texas.

Just to note that assuming this is not declared today, then we are but 1 storm away from 2005 to the end of August.

2005 only saw 5 storms develop during September, so 6 would mean we matched it.

Given the now strengthening -QBO and La Nina, i am personally expecting a bumper September and October.

[Iceberg]

The GOM invest 93L is starting to get interesting now, with various models from SHIPS to ECM showing a hurricane developing from it, landfall could be anywhere from Mexico to Florida, but most likely Texas/LA IMO.

NHC have upped it to Orange.

[Paranoid]

GOM system now up to Red (60%). Haven't seen any wind shear charts but SSTs in the region are around 30-32c, so plenty of oceanic heat for this system to feed on.

[Cookie]

93L

[Paranoid]

The models seem to suggest two main forecasts for 93L. First one is that it will make it to TS/Cat 1 strength shortly before landfall in Louisiana. Second one (and this seems to be the slightly more common one at the moment) is that it will stall somewhere off the coast of Texas and bomb in the process, becoming a small but intense hurricane before making landfall in Texas or Northern Mexico. This is near the end of the forecast period (T96-144) so obviously a lot can change before either of these happen. My intuition tells me that the first one seems the most likely solution however.

[summer blizzard]

The models seem to suggest two main forecasts for 93L. First one is that it will make it to TS/Cat 1 strength shortly before landfall in Louisiana. Second one (and this seems to be the slightly more common one at the moment) is that it will stall somewhere off the coast of Texas and bomb in the process, becoming a small but intense hurricane before making landfall in Texas or Northern Mexico. This is near the end of the forecast period (T96-144) so obviously a lot can change before either of these happen. My intuition tells me that the first one seems the most likely solution however.

93L now at 70%. Satelite presentation is very impressive with strong convection and a clear circulation although the absence of westerlies indicates that it is not closed off yet. In regards to track, it has actually headed north east from yesterdays position towards Florida. It is actually a fairly big storm now.

I expect development and immediate upgrade to a TS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Recon is in between 16:30 and 18:00 UK time.

Edited September 1, 2011 by summer blizzard

[Paranoid]

The system off the East coast is acquiring tropical features and has been upgraded to 50% (in a special advisory).

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, this system is 94L and has a fair chance of becoming a tropical storm, another short lived one however.

[Iceberg]

93L should get it act together before it hits land Day 4 maybe 5. However atm shear is preventing anykind of closed surface from forming despite the convection and instability.

[summer blizzard]

94L now at 60% although convection looks weak. That said, it does a fairly strong cirulation although it does look Sub-Tropical.

[Somerset Squall]

94L down to 40%. Shear seems to be doing it's job on the system. The LLC is completely exposed and the convection is weakening. I think Maria will have to wait.

[summer blizzard]

Noticed over the past two days that both GEM and ECWMF have a Hurricane north west of the Azores around day 10. Is this from the wave coming off Africa now?

[summer blizzard]

95L has formed about 30W and is traveling directly west. This is a good sign as it increases the chance of landfall and shear looks fairly low.

[Paranoid]

95L has just been upped to 60%. Perhaps another potential Cape Verde hurricane? Sea surface temps are only going to get higher along its path but i can't for the life of me find any shear forecasts. Moisture levels seem fairly high as well, so unless shear is an issue i don't see any obstacles to development at the moment, although the models seem to weaken 95L as it nears the Caribbean.

Edited September 5, 2011 by Paranoid

[Somerset Squall]

Shear is low over 95L (5-10kts), but is high to the north of the disturbance:

Shear is also higher currently at 50W, and this may be what the models are seeing with the forecast weakening:

Shear tendency charts are also available at the CIMSS website, which has shear maps for all basins. In addition, clicking on each storm from the CIMSS homepage will give you track maps and text based shear tendancy (not for Invests however). Example for Katia:

Katia

Hope that helps Paranoid