Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Harry]

are we not talking about imports of the French storms or homegrowns, the breeze is looking to be a se flow!!

-

i would think we would get some skimmers at least, or brushers what ever name you give to Kent clippers!

in the short term need to keep an interest in saturdays convective potential..

Thanks for the support guys...I didn't expect my post to be so controversial, and I apologise Snow_Lover123 if my comment appeared condescending or overly critical...that was never my intention.

I do think that at this time of the year, charts can be misleading. Tbh, I think most of the year, GFS can be very misleading more than a day or two in advance when looking at convective potential. It seldom copes well with our topography (the Channel in particular) and commonly over eggs CAPE/LI when more than a few days in advance. It is for these reasons I think the charts posted above are nothing to get excited about, and believe me, I've spent many a time getting over excited about GFS charts several days in advance, to be left feeling disappointed as 'd-day' approaches

My reasoning for focusing on plume storms is due to the proximity of High Pressure to our shores. Plumes can often fire thunderstorms with High Pressure in charge, especially if surface Lows were to form under the High. A plume can provide conditions so unstable that effectively, the High will not prohibit CAPE being realised. However, without plume conditions and High pressure never too far away, I think the small amounts of CAPE indicated on GFS (even MLCAPE or MUCAPE) would not provide sufficient instability to generate storms, even heavy showers in all probability.

Lets just hope for a plume setup

Yes, Let's all wait until nearer the time before getting too excited ! what with the charts chopping and changing it can be quite frustrating! I reckon around 'May' I'll hopefully see my first storm Lol.

And as ever JL everyone will be wishing you luck

ECMWF is looking very nice at the moment (IMO)...looking at it earlier today, it had turned towards a more messy and cooler theme...now it seems it is keen to get a plume setup back in place...just goes to show how things can change!!

Edited April 15, 2011 by Harry

[ZONE 51]

Thanks for the support guys...I didn't expect my post to be so controversial,

Lets just hope for a plume setup :DAnd as ever JL everyone will be wishing you luck

-

hi harry , that word never crossed my mind, i was just doing a reply to your post as normal, must say your posts i enjoy reading as many others do to, when it comes to storms especially you are brilliant! anyway we have some potential which is great, it could be nothing showing, and even saturday look like a isolated downpour day i think, some interesting skies i hope to see at least

-

breeze convergence lines could brew us something in the south..

-

anyone that has not - check the gfs wind charts for saturday.

(fax is for next tuesday)

Edited April 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[dave48]

Haha fair point! Though I'm wondering if it's just a glitch.

It's come to my notice that Bristol seems to have missed out on days when the rest of the country has been battered with storms (like June 15th 2009) and has struck lucky on days when the rest have missed out (like June 29th 2009). July 2009 was quite a good month for thunder here with thunderstorms on the 2nd, 6th, narrowly missed one but heard rumbles on the 7th, again saw one of the Mendips on 23rd, and 24th. There were some very intense downpours on the 30th too but not accompanied by thunder. June and July 2009 were certainly good thunder months.

The period before that with a lot of thundery activity was May 2008 with thunderstorms on the 4th, 9th, 23rd and 29th and a surprise few bangs associated with a trough following a warm humid day on June 21st. There were a lot of Mendip streamers in July and August too but Bristol only got thunderstorms on July 6th, 25th and 28th and narrowly missed on August 12th.

Though events I want to see happen again are the likes of 27th/29th May 1999 and 4th July 2001 which were just monumental. 24th and 28th June 2005 are up there with them too but since 2006, thunder activity has dramatically decreased.

2008 in general was much better than 2009 and 2010 for me. The set ups for the may 4th and 9th storms especially were quite interesting with the 9th may storm standing out as the best storm I have seen in the last 4 years. Lightning was visible for about 3 hours from where I was in Bristol at the time.

The link in my signature was taken that night.

[Jane Louise]

Lets just hope for a plume setup

And as ever JL everyone will be wishing you luck

Thanks Harry,

I'm sure going to need it again for the 3rd year running Lol.:lol:

I used to think the GFS were always right regarding storms and even stayed up most nights just hoping and praying a storm would turn up! even a rumble of thunder was good enough at the time due to lack of storms Lol. But, like you, I have come to realise that GFS tends to downgrade nearer to the actual time and it can't always be relied on! I still say the ancients were always the best for forecasting weather and storms. :winky:

[ZONE 51]

if this year im forever chasing charts that vaporize potential just like that, then its over to France for day trips or two! because when their is a chance for us it is always over the channel that gets the storms, they don't vanish there, so as my favourite model shows me..we have a risk, but its been showing every day and il hope see this on sunday and monday..lets hope so.

while i think of it just an idea for the animations, do we have a warm version of this one - ?

its fun virtual storm chasing.. some real chasing in the USA would be an experience as ive never been. maybe next year(not including France as that could be the place to go this year))

Edited April 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Hughsey]

<br />Thanks for the support guys...I didn't expect my post to be so controversial, and I apologise Snow_Lover123 if my comment appeared condescending or overly critical...that was never my intention.<br /><br />I do think that at this time of the year, charts can be misleading. Tbh, I think most of the year, GFS can be very misleading more than a day or two in advance when looking at convective potential. It seldom copes well with our topography (the Channel in particular) and commonly over eggs CAPE/LI when more than a few days in advance. It is for these reasons I think the charts posted above are nothing to get excited about, and believe me, I've spent many a time getting over excited about GFS charts several days in advance, to be left feeling disappointed as 'd-day' approaches <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/cray.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br />My reasoning for focusing on plume storms is due to the proximity of High Pressure to our shores. Plumes can often fire thunderstorms with High Pressure in charge, especially if surface Lows were to form under the High. A plume can provide conditions so unstable that effectively, the High will not prohibit CAPE being realised. However, without plume conditions and High pressure never too far away, I think the small amounts of CAPE indicated on GFS (even MLCAPE or MUCAPE) would not provide sufficient instability to generate storms, even heavy showers in all probability.<br /><br />Lets just hope for a plume setup <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />And as ever JL everyone will be wishing you luck <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br />ECMWF is looking very nice at the moment (IMO)...looking at it earlier today, it had turned towards a more messy and cooler theme...now it seems it is keen to get a plume setup back in place...just goes to show how things can change!!<br />

<br /><br /><br />

dont worry about it harry, your clearly alot more knowledgeable than myself so you can be as critical as you like. have enjoyed reading your posts and you clearly know your stuff!

[Stuart]

Good luck down there for tue

[Jane Louise]

No inkling of a storm here for Tuesday. Monday is showing a 33% storm risk for me. I think I'll play it by ear and wait to see if anything changes by next week.

[Coast]

Chris Fawkes mentioned the T word on the BBC Breakfast weather this morning......

[Stuart]

seen that coast but to far South West :cray:

[Wivenswold]

Been sat staring South for a while, watching the tide coming in. Look behind me and there's a massive CB to the North, over Ipswich. Summer's back!

[Sprites]

Been sat staring South for a while, watching the tide coming in. Look behind me and there's a massive CB to the North, over Ipswich. Summer's back!

there some light to moderate showers around east anglia, but no massive CBs ATM

[Arnie Pie]

We`ll Sat com`s bubbling up nicely, especially to the West of me......

and there's enough blue sky about to make a pair of sailors trousers

( something an old Aunt used to say )

mmmm....can feel a time lapse coming on......

Edited April 16, 2011 by windypants

[Wet'n'Dry]

Well there's a wall of cumulus to my north, heading south and growing. Small pilius clouds are fronting it.

I don't think much will come of it as it's going to cool the ground as it moves.

In the meantime I'm gonna charge my camera in anticipation something does happen

[Sprites]

looks like aweak convergance zone through essex and south suffolk , a moderate shower heading E.S.E from west suffolk atm, thats all we got lol :blush:

[camiscool]

a few brewing up in france

[staplehurst]

Plenty of cumulus around today, growing into a very large and defined CB to the northeast of Norwich right now. Problem is there's so much convection it's limiting the sun and it has become rather overcast in the past 20 mins. Quite warm and humid and still outside, but a breeze has begun to develop.

[A.J]

not a lot to report on the radars, a few showers cropping up over Essex/East Anglia...Looks like they're tapping into a modicum of energy, and a little bit of low level wind convergence just applying a bit more lift....apart from that, not a lot going on

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can confirm Staplehurst's report- a few showers appearing on the radar around Norwich, as the sunny spell midday has set off a fair number of towering cumulus clouds which are continuing to sprout up.

Pretty hazy/polluted here today- we don't often see a reddish/orange hue on the horizon at this time of day!

[ZONE 51]

-

some isolated heavy showers have developed

-

-

as shown on sat-more could brew up for a while

-

-

from the weak front

-

-

an isolated heavy shower as seen on radar

-

now below we look at next Tuesday

-

some home growns first..

-

after a very warn day a warm evening - even humid..

-

and then some late afternoon/evening imports......................

[Wet'n'Dry]

Another non-event today. The cloud bank from the North has covered my area, no definition to it, just a load of scud. The temps have dropped in the last hour from 22c to 17c. With any luck it will dissipate by the morning and we can have another go at seeing some convection.

Time to resign todays observations to distant memory, aided with a few beers!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The big shower (which has produced some pretty bright echoes on the radar) is missing Norwich and heading off to the SE but there's a large TCu to the north-west that is heading straight for Norwich now- just gotta hope it keeps some of its intensity!

[A.J]

Here we go, back by popular demand, the 1st episode of 'Storm lovers chart porn fantasies' for 2011....premieres next saturday...lol

Phrroooooar, Wouldn't mind having a bit of that!

[Stuart]

7 days away i may see storms :lol:

[Jane Louise]

Here we go, back by popular demand, the 1st episode of 'Storm lovers chart porn fantasies' for 2011....premieres next saturday...lol

Phrroooooar, Wouldn't mind having a bit of that!

Wow!! is all I can say Lol.. It's going to change by then, I know it. Arrrgghhhh

7 days away i may see storms :lol:

Fingers crossed again Stu.It's been too long for most of us storm nuts Lol.

Omg, have just checked my storm risk for next week and Tuesday and Wednesday are looking brilliant I must admit I really am getting my hopes now Lol. But I'll still wait for the day before to see if there's a downgrade. A 71% chance on Wednesday at the moment.:plol