Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Arnie Pie]

Ok....from this afternoon

If you like bubbly clouds

Hopefully a little bit of fine tuning for next week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoOJ6Uzo58

Edited April 16, 2011 by windypants

[Costa Del Fal]

I can only agree with what has already been said. Phwoar to next Saturday indeed. A week away however and thats alot in weather terms however the unexpected upgrade in temperatures next week is enough for me. I hope its right as well. 20-24c widely from Tuesday onwards.

[dave48]

Best chart I have seen so far this year! Charts totally changed from last night. Something to keep an eye on.

Edit: The current GFS run is going for thundery activity everyday from tuesday to sunday.

Edited April 16, 2011 by dave48

[Costa Del Fal]

Should the GFS be right then the SW Midlands and much of Wales is the place to be.

The charts are now overfilling me with happiness. Best spring charts in a long time but must not get too excited just yet.

Edited April 16, 2011 by Blizzards

[A.J]

Should the GFS be right then the SW Midlands and much of Wales is the place to be.

The charts are now overfilling me with happiness. Best spring charts in a long time but must not get too excited just yet.

Not forgetting the SE over the weekend...On this particular run, it looks as if a small surface low forms over the Iberian peninsular on Saturday leading to perhaps the 1st proper MCS forming over France..... Kent clipper me thinks?

[Stuart]

Hope there dont chart go down the pan

Edited April 16, 2011 by Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

Not forgetting the SE over the weekend...On this particular run, it looks as if a small surface low forms over the Iberian peninsular on Saturday leading to perhaps the 1st proper MCS forming over France..... Kent clipper me thinks?

Indeed so.

However i dont want to get too ahead of myself as the 06z was not showing any the SW Midland/Wales stuff. Yet is encouraging to see the 12z wasnt an outlier and if anything all ensembles were tightly packed together for much of the run. The 850's where actually right at the cooler end in late FI also so even there there is the potential for further very warm weather if the operational is wrong by then.

Whether the 12z is right or wrong, mouthwatering charts and thus im very happy this evening!

[Harry]

Nice cross-model agreement between the main three models with the ECMWF continuing to output favourable synoptics for a spell of widespread thunderstorm activity next week, moreso towards the latter part of the coming week -- post T+120 from the ECMWF's 12Z run certainly gets interesting. Could be looking at our first significant storm risk period if the models continue with the current trend.

IF it comes up, it should co-incide with the long easter weekend, especially ideal for night time storms and late night viewing pleasures

Edited April 16, 2011 by Harry

[Wet'n'Dry]

Ok....from this afternoon

If you like bubbly clouds

Hopefully a little bit of fine tuning for next week

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVoOJ6Uzo58

Great vid and music 10/10

[camiscool]

Im probably in the best mood ever (pretty much crying) over these charts and that man city won!

[Stormyking]

OMG Where has all this come from? :o

Some very exciting looking charts and mouth watering, probably the most thundery looking charts I have seen than the whole of last year put together!

Tuesday looking like it could be interesting so fingers crossed there, as for next saturday that would be fantastic if that pulled off but still 7 days away but very mouth watering none the less

[A.J]

Concerning Tuesday, I have a feeling we may see considerable "upgrades" from the GFS over future model runs given that both the ECMWF and MET's global model are showing a more favourable setup for thunderstorm development:

The upper low on the ECMWF to the SW of the UK is NW of Iberia, whereas the GFS progs it to be positioned way to the west of the region. The MET's output has arguably even better upper low postioning.

All in all, Tuesday onwards is certainly a period to keep an eye on over future model output.

I was thinking about replying with a favourable analytical post, but instead am plumping for....."Luvvly Jubbly!"

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 12z also has a convergence line moving from N England into the Midlands on Tuesday. Needless to say any showers/thunderstorms anywhere could be slow moving due to very slack winds.

[Stuart]

it be Luvvly Jubbly if i see my 1st storm before may :lol:

[Anti Boring Weather]

i doubt i will catch any thundery showers as my area tends to miss out on showers quite often as i live on low ground

[Stuart]

i doubt i will catch any thundery showers as my area tends to miss out on showers quite often as i live on low ground

storms can pop up anywere

[Static Prevails]

I'm confused. I can hardly tell whether any of this is good or bad for me!

What are my chances?

[Anti Boring Weather]

storms can pop up anywere

yeah i will prob here thunderstorms but trust me my location misses out on a lot of heavy showers,i want a solid band of rain to come but it aint gonna happen in the forseable

[Static Prevails]

Looks bad for me.

[TheToastPeople]

yeah i will prob here thunderstorms but trust me my location misses out on a lot of heavy showers,i want a solid band of rain to come but it aint gonna happen in the forseable

Trust me this guy isnt lying!! Saw one bolt of lightning last year and that was on may 1st :S Charts arnt looking bad just yet so maybe..lol

[Jane Louise]

I guess we'll all have to wait nearer the time but it's certainly looking good.:drinks:

[Anti Boring Weather]

Trust me this guy isnt lying!! Saw one bolt of lightning last year and that was on may 1st :S Charts arnt looking bad just yet so maybe..lol

Thanks a fellow bedfordian to back me up how dry its here

[Static Prevails]

I guess we'll all have to wait nearer the time but it's certainly looking good.:drinks:

As it stands, is it looking good for me? According to Netweather my highest chance is 33%, although I understand this is from the GFS and it's not to always be fully trusted.

[Weather Wizard]

Look at this.

Come on BBC get it right for once, i really wan't to see a storm

Edited April 16, 2011 by Weather wizard

[camiscool]

look at what <img src='http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />?

sorry didnt see it.

Edited April 16, 2011 by camiscool