Convective Weather Discussion UK

[weatherobsuk]

That cell just to the West of Dublin is the most potent so far from anything seen today. Anvil formed within the hour of it prepping up, and with plenty of CAPE to tap into around it. No doubt aided by topographic lift coming off the mountains.

[NL]

I have to say for eastern areas it is not looking overly cushty this week, but a bit more favourable for those West and North West of the M4 corridor this week.

We've had a little taster of what the models are showing, pretty dull with a cold ESE wind top temp 12-14°C and if the projected forecast verifies its going to get worse for us folk on east facing coasts,especially the further north you are with no storms, no sun just a cold, grey, damp, breezy, gloomy outlook....

[vortex_liam]

Showers east of dublin could have a few flashs as they go through the higer cape and lower LI

[Andy Bown]

MetO going with showers, a few heavy locally, across the SE from between 10pm and 1-2am.

This set up in a month times onwards through the summer would be stunning IMO! It's pretty excellent now, especially seeing as it's only 18 April!

Although nothing is due this far West tonight I look forward to seeing an interesting sky tomorrow morning because it looks the perfect recipe for

Altocumulus Castellanus and other lovely unstable mid-level cloud types.

The latest NMM hi-res model run downplays the chances of PPN in the SE tonight (although, like all models, not to be taken as gospel) whilst at the same time likes the idea of a lot of energy & lift available for some southern parts tomorrow afternoon, and into the evening, with convergence zones setting up across parts of Somerset, Wilts and Oxon.....chances in those areas of an Isolated thundery downpour....favoured spot, the Bristol area perhaps?

Wouldn't surprise me if some good convection gets going tomorrow, if so I agree the Bristol area looks good. Will be interesting to see how widespread the showers are. Would agree that convergence zones will likely play a part in any activity tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing the models later on.

Guys, I think convergence tomorrow could come by way of the gentle S/SE flow meeting a N/NW/W sea breeze that forms along the Bristol Channel coastline

as the afternoon progresses. That would be potential for Wiltshire/Bath/Somerset/Bristol but the Points West forecast showed a mostly sunny day with minimal

cloud developing.

[A.J]

Showers east of dublin could have a few flashs as they go through the higer cape and lower LI

I think those echoes to the east of Dublin is anaprop, its been popping on and off the radar all day, and has hardly moved a muscle...On the visi sat, it looks more like some high cloud overriding fog banks giving ghost returns...Could be wrong though .A few showers have been set off to the NW of Dublin, one anvil showing up on the sat image, but only light returns showing up on the rainfall radar

[Static Prevails]

Thursday and Friday both look good for me! Let's hope it delivers!

[weatherobsuk]

Looking to be a overriding feature on the satellite loop moving NE intercepting the AS feeder band which is what's prepping up the showers over in Ireland, Wales and perhaps Central England soon (currently gone overcast and darkening by the minute here.) This is the trigger mechanism todays that's eroding the cap and causing some brief activity to flare up.

[NUT]

Quite dark here too but still dry. Might get a shower or something (but not a lot)

[Mesosphere]

1 or 2 very isolated showers look like they have broken out east of edinburgh

EDIT: Looked like they formed in the far south of scotland the uplands probably and pushed north

aye , we had some light rain for about 10 mins earlier , nothing else

[Mesoscale]

Still sunny but hazy here, if you don't expect anything theres little to be disappointed with.

[Coast]

Still wall to wall sunshine here, no sign of the showers forecast by the BBC and I suspect the same for any rumbles of thunder

[dogs32]

Jane did u say coming years

sorry couldnt resist

sorry its my glasses...

This weekend could be good...BBC into now casting me thinks

Edited April 18, 2011 by dogs32

[Hughsey]

mm according to the models, things not looking too good for EA but Im not sure I buy that, apparently the GFS often shifts east as time goes on and highest temps in EA and SE so I reckon there will be a good chance of storms here later on the week, or at least I hope.

[NUT]

Very dark to the east of me

[vortex_liam]

Very dark to the east of me

Pictures

[Lt. Dan]

12z NMM shows some cape over eastern areas for tomorrow now...

[vortex_liam]

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb that cloud forming North of london is heading directly over me... i wonder if it could bring something i'll refraise that there is 0 cape lmao

Hey, my house in tomar portugal is getting hammered lol got a weather station out there and its recording thunder. Gotta check the cctv when i can - it gets saved for 6 months. I have it sent via a internet app.

[NUT]

Pictures

How do you upload on here and I will?

[vortex_liam]

How do you upload on here and I will?

imageshack.us then form embel

looks like a plume setting up.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true at the tip of spain just comming up from portugal with this in it!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/radar?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=maps&CONT=euro&CREG=r01g

might survive the bay of biscay!

[NUT]

imageshack.us then form embel

looks like a plume setting up.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true at the tip of spain just comming up from portugal with this in it!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/radar?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=maps&CONT=euro&CREG=r01g

might survive the bay of biscay!

Got a call to make but I will upload them soon

[Jane Louise]

Jane did u say coming years

sorry couldnt resist

sorry its my glasses...

This weekend could be good...BBC into now casting me thinks

:lol:Lol,Pat I should of said years. Tis looking really good for Thursday and Saturday,just hope it happens. We're taking caravan out Saturday because there are storms lol so I hope and pray we get one.Nothing beats being in the middle of nowhere with a storm rolling in lol :winky:

[Wilxy]

:lol:Lol,Pat I should of said years. Tis looking really good for Thursday and Saturday,just hope it happens. We're taking caravan out Saturday because there are storms lol so I hope and pray we get one.Nothing beats being in the middle of nowhere with a storm rolling in lol :winky:

I have my car this year aswel so if nothing comes to me im going to them

[A.J]

Regarding activity in the SE tonight/tomorrow, I'm afraid the computer says 'No'....cross model agreement on it being bone dry for the next 24-36 hours in that neck of the woods, more of a chance west tomorrow afternoon of an isolated downpour, as posted earlier, then it's a case of radar watching as we approach the weekend....A question of not getting too far carried away, me thinks

[camiscool]

<br />Regarding activity in the SE tonight/tomorrow, I'm afraid the computer says 'No'....cross model agreement on it being bone dry for the next 24-36 hours in that neck of the woods, more of a chance west tomorrow afternoon of an isolated downpour, as posted earlier, then it's a case of radar watching as we approach the weekend....A question of not getting too far carried away, me thinks<br />

<br /><br /><br /> COOL

[Costa Del Fal]

Regarding activity in the SE tonight/tomorrow, I'm afraid the computer says 'No'....cross model agreement on it being bone dry for the next 24-36 hours in that neck of the woods, more of a chance west tomorrow afternoon of an isolated downpour, as posted earlier, then it's a case of radar watching as we approach the weekend....A question of not getting too far carried away, me thinks

100% Agree with that. Isolated showers is probably the best way to describe things for now, perhaps scattered on Thursday if the GFS is to be believed for Western Central and Western areas but not definite at all yet.