Convective Weather Discussion UK

[knocker]

Regarding activity in the SE tonight/tomorrow, I'm afraid the computer says 'No'....cross model agreement on it being bone dry for the next 24-36 hours in that neck of the woods, more of a chance west tomorrow afternoon of an isolated downpour, as posted earlier, then it's a case of radar watching as we approach the weekend....A question of not getting too far carried away, me thinks

You are not wrong about being bone dry as is fairly obvious from the dew points. The Hustmonseux sounding seems to have gone walkabout but Trappes is representative.

Edited April 18, 2011 by weather ship

[Sprites]

You are not wrong about being bone dry as is fairly obvious from the dew points. The Hutsmonseux sounding seems to have gone walkabout but Trappes is representative.

those low dewpoints will make any storms really struggle to get going, maybe some moisture pooling from sea-breezes ,plus convergence will manage to develop an isolated shower in the London are tmrw...really hope casting now lol

[vortex_liam]

I wish i was in portugal atm as its getting battered by the secound storm in a line... perhaps they'll come here!

Btw i have another house in portugal near tmar just south of lisboa / lisbon

Edited April 18, 2011 by vortex_liam

[knocker]

those low dewpoints will make any storms really struggle to get going, maybe some moisture pooling from sea-breezes ,plus convergence will manage to develop an isolated shower in the London are tmrw...really hope casting now lol

Well the 18z GFS gives some hope but I have to say I wouldn't put my third mortgage on it.

[dave48]

Estofex have issued a forecast for tomorrow with no area over the UK. Later on in the week still looking good though.

[ZONE 51]

Live weather data-just scroll down through loads of it!

weather data

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got some convective cloud coming in, some sharp bubblies across the moon.

look at this amazing sat image of storms down south!

Edited April 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

some isolated showers developing across the channel not so long ago

Edited April 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Taking a closer look at Tuesday (today) afternoon - Storm Watch Day 1.

i have circled/lined areas of interest

although nae has not shown much or no ppn i would not rule out thunderstorms, especially in Scotland, and across south england isolated small local maybe thundery cells, these not developing unless conditions are right, we need to get the heat going!! parts of Scotland stand quite a risk of seeing a storm today, and isolated showers elsewhere.

i am learning this data so please feel free to put me right if i get anything wrong. thanks!

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breeze convergence and highest temps are the effects for the south

,wheres Scotland its is likely to be the hills and mountains as the lifting force

lets see how it goes, checking out the data and seeing what turns up is the best way to learn i think.

the above data is GFS 18z.

Edited April 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Lt. Dan]

Taking a closer look at Tuesday (today) afternoon - Storm Watch Day 1.

lets see how it goes, checking out the data and seeing what turns up is the best way to learn i think.

the above data is GFS 18z.

I was thinking the same as you but maybe we are missing something?

[Coast]

So nothing of note yesterday which followed the general pattern and discussion in here. Although things seem to build toward Friday and the weekend, I'm keeping my powder dry and waiting for each morning in quiet anticipation!

Looks like it may be a hit or miss again today:

Although the MetO have an area over us in the SE corner later:

Interesting spike of CAPE in Essex mid afternoon:

I'll stick my neck out and say Colchester today, but with very low expectation.....

[Harry]

Indeed...signs are present early on with a field of Ac, although these are thinning out as the morning progresses.

Of interest (limited I might add), the NW icon for my area indicates thundery showers/thunderstorms for this afternoon. This I think is unlikely.

I wouldn't rule out either, an isolated downpour, but that is all it will be IMO. I think Colchester is a very good bet.

At present, if GFS prevails I think thundery weather even up across the weekend will relatively limited. If however ECM prevails, then I think prospects are MUCH better (but I wouldn't say great). The BoBiscay low drifts much closer to our shores on ECM, enabling more CAPE to be realised and also providing a more favourable wind flow for any imports we might be fortunate enough to grab on to.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Harry

[Stuart]

I see the risk of storms been Downgread for this week but still looking good for the weekend

Edited April 19, 2011 by Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

Id say the risk has not gone for the rest of this week but ISOLATED is very much key here. Not much else to add really.

[Nick F]

Despite the CAPE shown by GFS across central southern and SE England this afternoon, I think the surface airmass is too dry and there's too much CINH for anything more than an isolated sharp shower today, perhaps maybe popping up over the Chilterns.

Tomorrow perhaps a better chance of an isolated t-storm popping up maybe across SW and central-S England with more moisture convergence and slightly higher temps, but isolated indeed the key word I think for the rest of this week.

[Costa Del Fal]

UKMO has a little precip tomorrow afternoon around SW England into Central areas but im not reading to much into that but as Nick says a slightly better chance tomorrow.

[Lynxus]

God i love this time of year..

Good chance of storms for central sout / west tomorrow..

GFS predicting precip.. So thats good.

minimal cape and lifted.. But thats sorta expected this time of year.

Very clear convergence line... Good stuff!

Below pretty much sums it up really.

Will be interesting to see what estofex says tomorrow..

[Stuart]

GFS Upgread the storm risk here with 60 hours to go

bbc starting to move inline with the gfs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/4300?area=Galashiels

Edited April 19, 2011 by Stuart

[MP-R]

I'm hoping for a 10th May 2006 outcome - that was fantastic and in a very similar synoptic setup to what we have at the moment. I don't remember thunderstorms being forecast in the morning yet one isolated cell that formed to the NW of London seemed to just explode into life as it crossed the country and formed a huge storm by the time it got to the West Country.

Storm chance is still there for the West Country, Southwest, Central Southern England for tomorrow, just not quite as high as before. At least it hasn't disappeared altogether.

[dave48]

I'm hoping for a 10th May 2006 outcome - that was fantastic and in a very similar synoptic setup to what we have at the moment. I don't remember thunderstorms being forecast in the morning yet one isolated cell that formed to the NW of London seemed to just explode into life as it crossed the country and formed a huge storm by the time it got to the West Country.

Storm chance is still there for the West Country, Southwest, Central Southern England for tomorrow, just not quite as high as before. At least it hasn't disappeared altogether.

Would be great to see something like that again. I can't reisist checking the radar every so often just to see.

Saturday has looked good for us for quite a few days now. Hoping that holds together. GFS has switched a few times for sunday onwards but is currently indicating more thundery potential for a few days.

[Lynxus]

I'm hoping for a 10th May 2006 outcome - that was fantastic and in a very similar synoptic setup to what we have at the moment. I don't remember thunderstorms being forecast in the morning yet one isolated cell that formed to the NW of London seemed to just explode into life as it crossed the country and formed a huge storm by the time it got to the West Country.

Storm chance is still there for the West Country, Southwest, Central Southern England for tomorrow, just not quite as high as before. At least it hasn't disappeared altogether.

I remember that storm..

It hit south glos and i jumped in the car to get closer to it.

before i knew it, I was in Swindon, still under the HUGE MCS..

It was great to watch on the sat images. The cloud expanded so quickly..

Looked like a small CU from urban heating and then exploded into a MCS monster! Must of been about 300miles wide.

Great fun that was..

Edited April 19, 2011 by Lynxus

[Coast]

Good chance of storms for central sout / west tomorrow..

I'll temper that a bit by saying possible! again, the 12z sounding might enlighten us a little more.

I'm still waiting for the end of the week anyway - if nothing else, I will be on holiday!

[Lynxus]

I'm still waiting for the end of the week anyway - if nothing else, I will be on holiday!

Agreed!

4day week, followed by a 3 day week, followed by a 4 day week.

Lets just hope this high pressure stays with us!

[Harry]

Agreed!

4day week, followed by a 3 day week, followed by a 4 day week.

Lets just hope this high pressure stays with us!

Indeed! Although, if ever there was a better time for there to be thunderstorm outbreaks, the next couple of weeks is the time. Late night, storm lovers paradise with no worries of being knackered for work the next day.

We are teetering on a see-saw with regards storm potential...we have the right (general) wind flow, heat, lows stationed towards the West, High to the East...current specifics though are not conducive, in particular moisture levels. If those specifics can alter somewhat, our fortunes could change.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 00z and 06z do hint at a few showers/Thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon for some Southern areas and the Midlands and perhaps parts of Wales with decent instability about. However this is by far not certain and as i said earlier- Isolated is the main word this week.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Blizzards

[Harry]

If the FAX chart is anything to go by, something more complex evolving in time for the weekend. Thurs/Fri indicates a stream of air coming out of the Med (if you cross check this with the CAPE charts for Europe, you can see this very well)...this should be great for moisture.

However, the chart for late Friday into the weekend, is for Lows to evolve and swing across central Europe cutting of this moisture for us. The lows should give decent storm potential for France especially.

I like the fact the charts are juggling around - there is scope (with change) for this moisture to track further north to the UK - at present however, I think storm risk is very limited for all. Despite CAPE/LI levels being modest, for the synoptic setup (High to the E, lows to the S and W), they couldn't be worse IMO. While we are getting great, sunny weather, I can't help but feel we are getting a raw deal in respect of convection!!!