Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[Isolated Frost]

Are these snow flakes in Newtown?

Cam below

What a fantastic post- it really is winter on NW! And yes, maybe the odd sleety bit of heaven there- well spotted!

I'd imagine snowdonia/brecon beacons have both done pretty well today.

[mikeocarroll]

Now a slight covering is back, but hail this time, and it's raining again... today is a definition of "marginal".

[TonyH]

Ah Lamppost watching from the comfort of my living room!

Could be snow that.

Now a slight covering is back, but hail this time, and it's raining again... today is a definition of "marginal".

And fair play we all knew it would be

[keithlucky]

Now a slight covering is back, but hail this time, and it's raining again... today is a definition of "marginal".

Close but no cigar lol.

[TonyH]

Could you give the link for the Newtown cam Shaun thanks?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just another update-

Here is the NAE 12z showing that feature in the Bristol channel:

http://expert-images...121403_1312.gif

http://expert-images...121406_1312.gif

And on the GFS 12z for the same time:

http://expert-images...121403_1312.gif

http://expert-images...121406_1312.gif

On the GFS it looks to move through quicker and further south. Like i posted earlier the NAE has shown this for 2 runs now so it will be interesting to see which is right. IF the NAE is correct and a batch of precipitation moves through South Wales during the earlier hours of Wednesday morning then those inland and with some height 150-200m could see some falling snow. The reason i suggest this is because the dewpoints are forecast to be at or below freezing and upper air temps & thickness while marginal may meet the minimal requirements for falling snow while/if heavy precipitation moves through. Nothing hugely wintry i admit but something interesting at least.

Havent seen the NMM model, so not sure which model it is currently backing with regards to precipitation distribution during the early hours.

[TonyH]

Link to Traffic Wales, click on CCTV for the cams:

http://www.traffic-wales.com/

[swales]

Could you give the link for the Newtown cam Shaun thanks?

Two from Newtown - Traffic Wales direct links:

http://www.traffic-w...68.40.12_7005_1

http://www.traffic-wales.com/CS/sign.ashx?layer=cctv&scn=192.168.40.5_7006_1

Clear of snow at the moment

__________________________________

Also, on Traffic Wales if you find a camera that you like then open it up on their map interface, right click on the image and find the URL. Copy that URL in to a new tab/window and bookmark it. Saves going through their mapping system all the time...

For example I have a folder on Google Chrome with all local traffic cameras bookmarked so I can link directly to the image... saves time

Edited December 13, 2011 by shaunwales

[TonyH]

Cheers Shaun

[andymusic]

GFS 18z still showing some potential for this coming thursday into friday and also sunday!

[Daniel Miller]

GFS 18z still showing some potential for this coming thursday into friday and also sunday!

Talk of possible heavy snow Thursday/Friday? Possible in your eyes or not?

[andymusic]

Talk of possible heavy snow Thursday/Friday? Possible in your eyes or not?

all depends on the track of the low - lots of variables - but Wales has a good chance of some wintry weather off this, yes Edited December 13, 2011 by andymusic

[Daniel Miller]

all depends on the track of the low - lots of variables - but Wales has a good chance of some wintry weather off this, yes

Fingers crossed then! Hhaa. All I've had today is rain, sleet and heavy hail. A hail storm is currently happening

[J10]

Just another update-

Here is the NAE 12z showing that feature in the Bristol channel:

http://expert-images...121403_1312.gif

http://expert-images...121406_1312.gif

And on the GFS 12z for the same time:

http://expert-images...121403_1312.gif

http://expert-images...121406_1312.gif

On the GFS it looks to move through quicker and further south. Like i posted earlier the NAE has shown this for 2 runs now so it will be interesting to see which is right. IF the NAE is correct and a batch of precipitation moves through South Wales during the earlier hours of Wednesday morning then those inland and with some height 150-200m could see some falling snow. The reason i suggest this is because the dewpoints are forecast to be at or below freezing and upper air temps & thickness while marginal may meet the minimal requirements for falling snow while/if heavy precipitation moves through. Nothing hugely wintry i admit but something interesting at least.

Havent seen the NMM model, so not sure which model it is currently backing with regards to precipitation distribution during the early hours.

NMM has the precipitation largely hugging the coast, but some moderate bursts built in. Wind direction is set to change to move to a W or WSW as opposed to a SW, and wind strength should diminish, which should reduce the warming effect of the sea. As current temps of 7-8c (at 10pm ) are no near conducive for any wintriness.

[keithlucky]

I still think Andy our best chance of seeing snow in Wales is Friday-Saturday ,when a N westerly flow develops with a good possibility of streamers developing on a disturb airflow according to the meto latest fax chart.

[Gorath]

I'd imagine snowdonia/brecon beacons have both done pretty well today.

Nope. From what I can tell/see, we've had nothing in Snowdonia. Hell, it's barely rained at all here!

[welshwizard]

had a slight dusting here through the night some on top ov car but nothing to shout home about,news just showed snow showers for wales today and very heavy rain tomor with snow for hill tops not as windy as first thought (thank god) and then colder for weekend.

[DeepSnow]

Heavy hail all night and again now, also had a flash of lightning and some thunder just now! Good start to the day! - the hail has turned everything white too!

Edited December 14, 2011 by DeepSnow

[TonyH]

Whitened with hail here too. Heavy hail showers just 1c.

[mikeocarroll]

Slight dusting overnight. Very light snow here at the moment but out to the west is a wall of white cloud - unfortunately radar suggests most going just to the south of me.

[mikeocarroll]

Also just noticed this from earlier:

"A44 Powys - Hazardous driving conditions earlier on A44 between the A470 South Street junction in Rhayader and the A470 junction in Llangurig, because of snow earlier."

Would think that A44 & A483 may have a bit of snow now. Still light snow/hail mix here.

Snowing moderately now, current shower was preceeded by hail. Settling, adding to our dusting... progressing steadily towards a covering

[Bobby]

Possible snow event for us tomorrow night, especially those on higher ground

[mikeocarroll]

Regressed so sleety rain here now, can't see the dusting lasting too long - it never did quite make it to a covering

[kold weather]

Certainly a very solid set-up there Barb, higher ground would almost certainly get pasted, just going to depend on how quick the cold air can dig down...

[mikeocarroll]

The main trouble is that the upper air isn't all that cold, and is a long way from backup, in the sense that there's not any really cold air around to be sucked down. GFS for the same period as the chart above:

As you can see uppers are -3 or -4 so it will be another marginal event, should be some snow in heavy precipitation, especially on high ground, but I can't see widespread accumulations, would love to be proved wrong though!