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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Please continue the convective weather discussion here.

animated_lightning.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

The focus very much of eastern parts of the country towards mid-late afternoon period as the region of defined low-level convergence transfers eastward, coninciding with maximum available instability-- generally from E Yorks and all counties due south looks to be the likely region of good thunderstorm development. Woudn't be surprised to see some rather intense cells today as converging of the low-level flow becomes defined.

Yep, could be very good there. Not to say that here looks interesting as well but earlier on in the afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton

The focus very much of eastern parts of the country towards mid-late afternoon period as the region of defined low-level convergence transfers eastward, coninciding with maximum available instability-- generally from E Yorks and all counties due south looks to be the likely region of good thunderstorm development. Woudn't be surprised to see some rather intense cells today as converging of the low-level flow becomes defined.

can you simplyfy that for me

what does this mean for our area eg Birmingham Coventry etc

good bad etc

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just to recap from the other thread, here is the ESTOFEX map Stuart posted earlier:

post-6667-0-20951500-1303545263.png

and here's a selection of indications from the usual suspects:

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.gif

unfortunately, I am out of contention according to those, but everybody else is in the firing line!!!! :doh:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL.gif

sfcdewpt.curr.1600lst.d2.png

better (for me):

cape.curr.1600lst.d2.png

zsfclcl.curr.1600lst.d2.png

Explanation: This height estimates the cloudbase for small, non-extensive 'puffy' clouds in the boundary layer, if such exist i.e. if the Cumulus Potential parameter (above) is positive or greater than the threshold Cumulus Potential empirically determined for your site. The surface LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) is the level to which humid air must ascend before it cools enough to reach a dew point temperature based on the surface mixing ratio and is therefore relevant only to small clouds - unlike the below BL-based CL which uses a BL-averaged humidity. However, this parameter has a theoretical difficulty and quite possibly that the actual cloudbase will be higher than given here - so perhaps this should be considered a minimum possible cloudbase.

sounding3.curr.1600lst.d2.png

sfcsunpct.curr.1600lst.d2.png

gfs_icape_eur15.png

gfs_layer_eur15.png

gfs_kili_eur15.png

gfs_el_eur15.png

gfs_spout_eur15.png

gfs_lapse_eur15.png

gfs_lapse2_eur15.png

gfs_srflow_eur15.png

So it looks like a reasonable opportunity for much of the middle of the country. Unfortunately I will be watching a stage show at the time the 12z sounding comes out, which will give us a better idea of what is happening - I just hope it doesn't all kick off around then if it is going to start!!! I'd like to be chasing in Belgium today.

post-6667-0-20951500-1303545263_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Hmmm..

Theres plenty of cape around here:

ukcapeli.png

Convergence is a bit further east than id personally like.. But could be fun further east.

ukwind.png

General storm risk is still there for the west/midlands, pretty much along storm valley.

ukstormrisk.png

Estofex have a low warning.

http://www.estofex.org/

ukprec.png

Looks like a perfect day for radar watching lol

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

can you simplyfy that for me

what does this mean for our area eg Birmingham Coventry etc

good bad etc

Well you might as well have the truth and id say there is a good chance of Thunderstorms across our region especially between 3-6pm in my opinion including Warwickshire! Yorkshire area may see the worst storms but here could easily see some nasty downpours, hail and regular thunder and lightning.

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Phwoar Coast you're testing my scrolling with that post haha.

East Mids running up into Yorks with the best chance of stronger storms. But like others have said areas to the west will still be in with a decent chance of a storm. To be honest many areas are at risk today from a downpour. Expect the unexpected!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton

Well you might as well have the truth and id say there is a good chance of Thunderstorms across our region especially between 3-6pm in my opinion including Warwickshire! Yorkshire area may see the worst storms but here could easily see some nasty downpours, hail and regular thunder and lightning.

Thanks for the honesty

I'm not on my own so I should be all right

Hope they're gone by 6pm so I can watch Doctor Who in peace and not be in pieces

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

well it looks like my revision will be undisturbed today! spent yesterday getting all overexcited, annoying the boyfriend and leaving the books..... enjoy (if anything kicks off!)

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton
  • Location: Bedworth , 5 Miles North Of Coventry , 3 Miles South Of Nuneaton

We're very much at risk of seeing heavy showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms by around mid-afternoon period, however I'm thinking more about where the potential for best thunderstorm development lies, and currently that would look to be over the regions I mentioned previously.

Thank you as well

I'll just wait see and hope ( that I don't see any that is )

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Phwoar Coast you're testing my scrolling with that post haha.

Yes sorry about that, they are hot-linked so a bit big I'm afraid. There are a lot of useful indicators today and I will be amazed if someone doesn't see a reasonable storm somewhere during the mid to late afternoon. I might have to content myself with staring out to sea and seeing what our neighbours get.

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Hoping for better luck later today, yesterday was the typical Telford storm shield day with storms within 5 miles of us in all directions but nothing overhead, things look promising enough though for this afternoon so lets hope this warmth goes out with a bang :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

<br /><br /><br / FUNNY :)......because i believe we are in the risk zone!

Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today :pardon:

Btw From PJB On Ukww Below - Close

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/get-attachment.asp?attachmentid=69155

And Tony Gilbert

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/get-attachment.asp?attachmentid=69146

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk

Seems that a great deal of us who are in midlands eastwards are in with a shout today, it's a warm but hazy start to the day today here in Suffolk. I'm heading down to Didcot later this afternoon/early evening so am expecting to see some interesting cloudscapes if nothing else, will take the camera with me and if I spot anything of interest will stick it up here.

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Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft

Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today :pardon:

Ha, we might get imports from germany/ belgium

Good conditions and wind pointing in the right direction for the se

post-12157-0-72990300-1303547952_thumb.p

post-12157-0-29404700-1303547958_thumb.p

post-12157-0-84115900-1303548028_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: West Kent
  • Location: West Kent

I'm still confident because these storm will pop up anywhere. You can't just say this is the exact risk zone and 1 mile south there will be no storms :s I'm staying confident. :)

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Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today :pardon:

Btw From PJB On Ukww Below - Close

http://www.ukweather...achmentid=69155

And Tony Gilbert

http://www.ukweather...achmentid=69146

there is your answer :)

http://null.co.uk/weather.forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12783&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=60

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Just looked at todays flash and bang potential...it seems just like old times!....The west midlands breed 'em and the east midlands get 'em! :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

I'm still confident because these storm will pop up anywhere. You can't just say this is the exact risk zone and 1 mile south there will be no storms :s I'm staying confident. :)

Really

I take those charts as Gospel and thought that Thunderstorms behave themselves and follow the Lines ? :rolleyes::nonono: :lol:

Btw I am being ironic above

We cant rule out the odd shower but if you want to see a cracking Thunderstorm today I would get in the car and head up the A1, Believe me it is not far and that is what Storm Chasing is about, not waiting at your house because your hit ratio will be about 5%

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