Convective Weather Discussion UK

[Coast]

Please continue the convective weather discussion here.

[Costa Del Fal]

The focus very much of eastern parts of the country towards mid-late afternoon period as the region of defined low-level convergence transfers eastward, coninciding with maximum available instability-- generally from E Yorks and all counties due south looks to be the likely region of good thunderstorm development. Woudn't be surprised to see some rather intense cells today as converging of the low-level flow becomes defined.

Yep, could be very good there. Not to say that here looks interesting as well but earlier on in the afternoon.

[Gordon]

The focus very much of eastern parts of the country towards mid-late afternoon period as the region of defined low-level convergence transfers eastward, coninciding with maximum available instability-- generally from E Yorks and all counties due south looks to be the likely region of good thunderstorm development. Woudn't be surprised to see some rather intense cells today as converging of the low-level flow becomes defined.

can you simplyfy that for me

what does this mean for our area eg Birmingham Coventry etc

good bad etc

[Coast]

Just to recap from the other thread, here is the ESTOFEX map Stuart posted earlier:

and here's a selection of indications from the usual suspects:

unfortunately, I am out of contention according to those, but everybody else is in the firing line!!!!

better (for me):

Explanation: This height estimates the cloudbase for small, non-extensive 'puffy' clouds in the boundary layer, if such exist i.e. if the Cumulus Potential parameter (above) is positive or greater than the threshold Cumulus Potential empirically determined for your site. The surface LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) is the level to which humid air must ascend before it cools enough to reach a dew point temperature based on the surface mixing ratio and is therefore relevant only to small clouds - unlike the below BL-based CL which uses a BL-averaged humidity. However, this parameter has a theoretical difficulty and quite possibly that the actual cloudbase will be higher than given here - so perhaps this should be considered a minimum possible cloudbase.

So it looks like a reasonable opportunity for much of the middle of the country. Unfortunately I will be watching a stage show at the time the 12z sounding comes out, which will give us a better idea of what is happening - I just hope it doesn't all kick off around then if it is going to start!!! I'd like to be chasing in Belgium today.

[Lynxus]

Hmmm..

Theres plenty of cape around here:

Convergence is a bit further east than id personally like.. But could be fun further east.

General storm risk is still there for the west/midlands, pretty much along storm valley.

Estofex have a low warning.

http://www.estofex.org/

Looks like a perfect day for radar watching lol

[Costa Del Fal]

can you simplyfy that for me

what does this mean for our area eg Birmingham Coventry etc

good bad etc

Well you might as well have the truth and id say there is a good chance of Thunderstorms across our region especially between 3-6pm in my opinion including Warwickshire! Yorkshire area may see the worst storms but here could easily see some nasty downpours, hail and regular thunder and lightning.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Blizzards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Any chance of me seeing something today im in surrey near heathrow TW20 8PS :)

[Guest]

Phwoar Coast you're testing my scrolling with that post haha.

East Mids running up into Yorks with the best chance of stronger storms. But like others have said areas to the west will still be in with a decent chance of a storm. To be honest many areas are at risk today from a downpour. Expect the unexpected!

[Gordon]

Well you might as well have the truth and id say there is a good chance of Thunderstorms across our region especially between 3-6pm in my opinion including Warwickshire! Yorkshire area may see the worst storms but here could easily see some nasty downpours, hail and regular thunder and lightning.

Thanks for the honesty

I'm not on my own so I should be all right

Hope they're gone by 6pm so I can watch Doctor Who in peace and not be in pieces

[Kookylou]

well it looks like my revision will be undisturbed today! spent yesterday getting all overexcited, annoying the boyfriend and leaving the books..... enjoy (if anything kicks off!)

[camiscool]

Sorry weather09 what were the regions you said previously?

[Stuart]

it still Cloday here and the rain comeing in from the west t look like the Game is over for me now

[Gordon]

We're very much at risk of seeing heavy showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms by around mid-afternoon period, however I'm thinking more about where the potential for best thunderstorm development lies, and currently that would look to be over the regions I mentioned previously.

Thank you as well

I'll just wait see and hope ( that I don't see any that is )

Edited April 23, 2011 by Gordon

[Coast]

Phwoar Coast you're testing my scrolling with that post haha.

Yes sorry about that, they are hot-linked so a bit big I'm afraid. There are a lot of useful indicators today and I will be amazed if someone doesn't see a reasonable storm somewhere during the mid to late afternoon. I might have to content myself with staring out to sea and seeing what our neighbours get.

[Paul Sherman]

Sorry weather09 what were the regions you said previously?

Not Kent :lol:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hope is ee some good t storms today

[camiscool]

Not Kent

FUNNY ......because i believe we are in the risk zone!

[conor123]

Hoping for better luck later today, yesterday was the typical Telford storm shield day with storms within 5 miles of us in all directions but nothing overhead, things look promising enough though for this afternoon so lets hope this warmth goes out with a bang :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

<br /><br /><br / FUNNY ......because i believe we are in the risk zone!

Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today

Btw From PJB On Ukww Below - Close

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/get-attachment.asp?attachmentid=69155

And Tony Gilbert

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/get-attachment.asp?attachmentid=69146

[pinball wizard]

Seems that a great deal of us who are in midlands eastwards are in with a shout today, it's a warm but hazy start to the day today here in Suffolk. I'm heading down to Didcot later this afternoon/early evening so am expecting to see some interesting cloudscapes if nothing else, will take the camera with me and if I spot anything of interest will stick it up here.

[vortex_liam]

Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today

Ha, we might get imports from germany/ belgium

Good conditions and wind pointing in the right direction for the se

[camiscool]

I'm still confident because these storm will pop up anywhere. You can't just say this is the exact risk zone and 1 mile south there will be no storms :s I'm staying confident.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Eh ??

When did that happen then.

Looks to me to be a Strong Risk of Thunderstorms from convergence across the East Midlands moving into Lincs and Northern East Anglia. Southern parts of Essex, London and Kent staying mostly dry throughout today.

But please do show me the forecast that says we are due Thunderstorms today

Btw From PJB On Ukww Below - Close

http://www.ukweather...achmentid=69155

And Tony Gilbert

http://www.ukweather...achmentid=69146

there is your answer

http://null.co.uk/weather.forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12783&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=60

[A.J]

Just looked at todays flash and bang potential...it seems just like old times!....The west midlands breed 'em and the east midlands get 'em!

[Paul Sherman]

I'm still confident because these storm will pop up anywhere. You can't just say this is the exact risk zone and 1 mile south there will be no storms :s I'm staying confident.

Really

I take those charts as Gospel and thought that Thunderstorms behave themselves and follow the Lines ? :lol:

Btw I am being ironic above

We cant rule out the odd shower but if you want to see a cracking Thunderstorm today I would get in the car and head up the A1, Believe me it is not far and that is what Storm Chasing is about, not waiting at your house because your hit ratio will be about 5%