Convective Weather Discussion UK

[camiscool]

Good luck everyone see you next year

[Mesosphere]

Again its very still and close this morning, Currently the temperature is 15.9C , Dewpoint 12.2C and Humidity 79%. Its cloudy however as the front is over us but i think there's still a chance anywhere from Newcaslte up to Edinburgh might get something , but we'll have to wait and see

Edited April 23, 2011 by Calum

[knocker]

As I've already commented just to update the charts for 0600z and 0900 sat.

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Today:

Cooler and cloudier in parts of northern and western UK, with outbreaks of rain, although clearer conditions should follow to the far northwest. Sunny elsewhere and very warm but thundery downpours in parts of central, southern and eastern Britain later.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Also.....

Today:

Dry, very warm and sunny again for most, although isolated heavy showers will develop later this afternoon, slow moving with a risk of hail and thunder. Maximum temperature 27 °C.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited April 23, 2011 by Kent-Weather

[Stuart]

Again its very still and close this morning, Currently the temperature is 15.9C , Dewpoint 12.2C and Humidity 79%. Its cloudy however as the front is over us but i think there's still a chance anywhere from Newcaslte up to Edinburgh might get something , but we'll have to wait and see

Hi calum yes I hope to see some today but it still Clouday but local ws saying Dewpoint 6.7 and still riseing

[Kookylou]

being teased by met office who say thundery showers possible in a east counties of wales. now, how far east!?! how far north?!? maybe it might be eastern counties in the north?!?! and so it begins again!

[weatherobsuk]

Temperature in Buxton (nearest station 7mi away) is 21.4'c with a dp of 12.8. GFS predicting some moderate showers breaking out to the East of here this afternoon, aided somewhat by vectors pushing across the Pennines giving topographic lift for showers to break out. With what will be a more defining line of storms along the Humber from a convergence line pushing Eastwards with it.

Just milky sky to the West from the stationary cold front. Meto isn't keen to keep it going anywhere soon so aslong as the high keeps it in place, its 'game on' for central/eastern areas. With the Pennines being the forcing mechanism for today, turning into a more defined trough later on.

[Casper]

Interesting read, we are having a St Georges BBQ here in Swindon so for once don't really want a storm! Can anyone predict Swindons chance of a storm?

[dave48]

The first proper storm day of the year, although yesterday was alright.

Looking forward to watching developments.

Westbury in Wiltshire sneaks into the bottom of some of the forecasts, I think a good chance of some showers down here but thunderstorm activity more focused to other parts as has been mentioned. But you never know.

Edit: Not sure if it has been mentioned but met office have the yellow warning out for the relevent areas for heavy rain from showers and thunderstorms. Not surprising given how slow they will be moving!

Also, dewpoints much better today, already widely 9-12!

Edited April 23, 2011 by dave48

[Mesosphere]

Temperature 17C and Dewpoint 13C here now

[weatherobsuk]

Interestingly the latest RASP shows storms breaking out over Western Wales moving Eastwards throughout the day from 1500bst. Moving into the Midlands and southern Pennine regions later on, with Northern Pennine areas forcing uplift sparking seperate storms moving East with the vectors out towards York in the early evening. RASP only goes up to 1900bst however so its GFS from there.

[Stuart]

Dewpoint going the worng way for storms here 5.9c

and my storm risk been downgread here

Edited April 23, 2011 by Stuart

[Kain]

Yes, the same for here, according to your signature you had that pathetic little thing I had at the start of the month, which obviously just took the shield's defences down, now we need the exposed inner core to be smashed! :ph34r: :winky:

I'm hopeful, but at the same time, worried I'll be disappointed!

Ive been disappointed so meny times now its water off a ducks back. The antipation though is always the same! Yeah we had that small storm at the start of the month, and we had some rumblings yesterday which can't really say it was a storm lol. I did spot a huge crack in the shield though above WV16!

In the words of Homer....DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <_<

[Static Prevails]

Ive been disappointed so meny times now its water off a ducks back. The antipation though is always the same! Yeah we had that small storm at the start of the month, and we had some rumblings yesterday which can't really say it was a storm lol. I did spot a huge crack in the shield though above WV16!

In the words of Homer....DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <_<

Hehe, best of luck for all! Of course, more for areas this missed out yesterday...

[Andy Pepler]

The first proper storm day of the year, although yesterday was alright.

Looking forward to watching developments.

Westbury in Wiltshire sneaks into the bottom of some of the forecasts, I think a good chance of some showers down here but thunderstorm activity more focused to other parts as has been mentioned. But you never know.

Edit: Not sure if it has been mentioned but met office have the yellow warning out for the relevent areas for heavy rain from showers and thunderstorms. Not surprising given how slow they will be moving!

Also, dewpoints much better today, already widely 9-12!

so it may be worth grabbing the cam gear and heading up to the white horse later

[MP-R]

Hmmm, not very optimistic for these parts now until this time next week. I won't completely lose faith but conditions seemed better yesterday and the storm chance seems to have transferred to everywhere except where it was originally forecast a few days ago.

Nonetheless, clear skies and temperatures climbing quicker than yesterday so a lot of sunning to be done.

[Gordon]

just watched the latest Forecast with Peter Gibbs on news 24 and their latest map shows a few but not many showers around at all this afternoon and will be set off by warmer temperatures in the SE ahead of the cold front and not many around this evening either

what do people think of the latest forecast

Also the dew point has gone down from 11 to 10 degrees , not sure whether that's good or bad

Edited April 23, 2011 by Gordon

[Casper]

Swindon now at 22c and clear, due to us having a BBQ this evening there's going to be a storm. All head to Swindon SN3.

[Supacell]

I won't be able to chase today but hoping that something comes to visit me. I've lived in Bradford for 15 months now and not seen or heard any more than the odd rumble.

[pinball wizard]

just watched the latest Forecast with Peter Gibbs on news 24 and their latest map shows a few but not many showers around at all this afternoon and will be set off by warmer temperatures in the SE ahead of the cold front and not many around this evening either

what do people think of the latest forecast

Also the dew point has gone down from 11 to 10 degrees , not sure whether that's good or bad

Personaly I think forecasts need to be taken as nothing more than a guide, storms are much like snow in that they are complex and difficult to forecast. The best thing people can do is keep an eye on temps and dew points and then observe the satellite imagery and see how much and where convection is taking place.

[Dunny]

Hi all, I've lingered on here for a long time reading all the posts, but never posted a message until just. Almost got caught out yesterday by a storm which passed to my west, probably between Stourbridge and Wolverhampton, whilst making the most of a solar telescope! Another great start to the morning sunshine wise, and I'll be getting the scope out again soon. Certainly feels a little more humid this morning in comparison to yesterday, however, still clear skies as of yet.

[johnholmes]

Re heavy showers and thunderstorms

The ascents all suggests that surface temps of 23-25C along with dewpoints of 12-14C should set off storms with tops to about 33,000ft maybe a bit more.

The link below shows the Met O warning for torrential downpours. I cannot improve on their idea of where!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

If I wanted to be more precise then draw a line ROUGHLY from Somerset through Gloucester towards the Peak District to North Yorks and east of there for the most likely areas from mid afternoon onwards, slowly dying out/clearing from the west by the early hours.

The upper trough helping to trigger things will by then be clearing the country.

Look at the surface flow on XC Weather, the area where the NW flow meets the more variable one will also help add to the pot, a slight fall in pressure associated with max heating is also another ingredient.

Edited April 23, 2011 by johnholmes

[Gordon]

Personaly I think forecasts need to be taken as nothing more than a guide, storms are much like snow in that they are complex and difficult to forecast. The best thing people can do is keep an eye on temps and dew points and then observe the satellite imagery and see how much and where convection is taking place.

yep I just saw the 12:30 forecast and he says not to take the areas as gospel just as an indication of what weather you might expect like you said

he did make a point of saying they're could be some heavy showers/downpours in northern and eastern England this evening which ties in with what some were saying this morning

seems to be a case of wait and see and hope for those that want them and for one's that don't like me

[Evening thunder]

The temp here has reached 22.3C already, with the dew point hovering between 14 and 15C, doesn't seem too bad. Not a cloud in the sky recently until I spotted the first isolated cumulus clouds. Maybe I have a very small chance of something this far west..

Hopefully the storms can be cooperative and form over the people that want them, with clear gaps over the people who don't want them :lol:

Edit: Typical, as soon as I say that, a sea breeze kicks in!

Edited April 23, 2011 by Stormmad26

[The PIT]

First shower cloud gone up to the nw very rapid development no sign of anything at all not long back.