Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Rob]

They aren't that far apart either, winds blow from high to low pressure, theres a low out in the Alantic and a high centred over N Europe, hense why were are getting the strong easterly gusts.

[knocker]

There is also a low pressure area over France causing a bit of a squeeze.

[Rob]

So there is, shows how much attention i paid to the chart!

[Jane Louise]

Hi JL,

If the current charts become reality, then we could have a mouth watering May in prospect!

Naturally, these are well in advance for any real discussion to be had IMO, heavily subject to change!

BUT, warmth returning and a strong southerly/southeasterly a possibility for many

Great Harry,

Let's hope this happens. Like you say it's way to early yet but at least the potential is there. Yay

[Weather Wizard]

They aren't that far apart either, winds blow from high to low pressure, theres a low out in the Alantic and a high centred over N Europe, hense why were are getting the strong easterly gusts.

Thanks

[Andy Bown]

I think anybody along the E/W line Honiton to Bude could see repeated storms all afternoon.

And thankfully that's just where I was on holiday over the weekend, in Bude!

Having thought I may miss thundery weather that would affect Wiltshire over the weekend I ended up in prime position on Saturday afternoon / evening!

We went to the Eden Project and had a thundery shower around midday, but driving back to Bude headed into warm sunshine, although I could see an

anvil ahead of us - which I thought would be over the Bristol Channel. As we were nearing Bude at 15.00 discrete cells were developing, surrounded by

sunny breaks and it was rather warm although breezy.

The first thunder I heard was from a cell that went just NE then N of Bude - as this cleared some lovely sheet lightning was observed and the thunder from

2 rumbles was fairly loud.

Over the next 3 hours things gradually became more fascinating with cells getting slowly nearer as the line tracked SE-NW and with each passing storm (there were 5 in total as far as I could tell) became closer with lightning more visible and thunder louder.

The crescendo came around 19.30 with a perfect CB which I could tell was going to go directly over where we were staying. It was preceded by a period of

strong warm sunshine so probably had plenty of energy to feed on!

The cell seemed to split into 2 main cores as it approached with 1 of these cores coming right overhead - I stood outside watching it approach until it got right overhead and there was a very bright flash with immediate shaking loud thunder! There followed a laashing downpour of rain and hail with 2 more stunning

overhead flashes and rumbles. The sky began to clear and, with the rain eased/cloud moving away, I decided to go outside again to watch it clear and was treated

to the best lightning of the day with a 3 way split C-C strike that went from 1 core to the other via the middle cloud!

[Stuart]

Sat look good right now for storm here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/4300?area=Galashiels

[ZONE 51]

After a break this week we get the storm watching ball rolling again!

warm air from far south reaching us friday/saturday..with this brings thunderstorms

it is quite likely to happen!

so our next thunderstorm risk is later on friday along with the warm plume..

[Static Prevails]

CAPE looks amazing here for Saturday! I'm still not going to be hopeful though, in case of bitter disappointment (and the fact that it's still 5 days away!).

[Adi F]

it is quite likely to happen!

We will have to wait and see and looking at your selective charts it does not tell the whole story, take a look at the amount of CIN. That will put it into perspective.

Secondly are you able to find some software that you can use to crop your images. I can recommend irfanview http://www.irfanview.com/

[Stuart]

Good Morning it all Looking Good For Storm at the weekend :drunk:

Edited May 3, 2011 by Stuart

[Nick F]

The weather at last looks like turning interesting by the weekend, as the large upper trough and surface low to the west of Ireland begins to make inroads across the UK by the end of the week.

GFS advects a plume of higher theta-e (potential equivalent temperatures) northwards on Saturday across the UK ahead of the upper trough to the west. The warm moist air will likey build some half-decent CAPE - particularly with surface heating. Also the plume looks to be overlaid by a fairly strong southerly jet, so shortwaves embedded in the jet will help destabilise the warm moist air and the strong southerly upper winds backing SE'erly at the surface should provide some half-decent wind-shear to work with and thus a severe potential with any storms that develop. Of course, still a long-way off, but hopefully not too much change.

[Stuart]

Thanks for that Nick I am Looking Forword seeing my 1st storms of the year I hope so

[Adi F]

It is a bit early to really have any confidence but one to watch for sure.

The evening of Monday the 9th and the morning of Tuesday the 10th of May the charts are showing some signs of wide spread thunder storms with possibly some tornadic activity for the area of Cornwall, Anglesey, Irish Sea, East Coast of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, Argyll and Bute and surrounding areas. Also including North-west Counties, Central Wales and Berkshire and Oxfordshire.

As usual this is still a long way out and the models are bound to change but one worth watching.

[Lauren]

Where y'all getting your CAPE readings for the weekend from?

[we1330]

Where y'all getting your CAPE readings for the weekend from?

Echoed!

[Adi F]

I get my CAPE charts from NW Extra as does Nick I think I am not sure about the others.

For my post re Monday and Tuesday I have not limited my observation to CAPE, my tornado comment was partly based on the TT Index amongst others.

Edited May 3, 2011 by Adi F

[knocker]

I don't know as I haven't been reading the posts but possibly the 06 GFS run.

EDIT.

If you can't access NX use.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/cape-et-lifted-index/3h.htm

Edited May 3, 2011 by weather ship

[Jane Louise]

In answer to the members on here regarding cape.There are many charts used for cape and LI and most can be found within Netweather. I tend to look at my storm chances on the GFS runs which shows up on your Local 7 & 16 day weather forecast

If you didn't already know , on the NW home page place your mouse on the weather at the top of the page then write in your postcode to see what your storm chances are.

I'm sure there will be somebody else who will give you more answers.

There's also the ' Will it thunder' page too for quick access.

http://www.netweathe...tion=wist;sess=

Just found what I was looking for.

Here you go:

In the select chart type select UK Cape + Lifted Index

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Edited May 3, 2011 by Jane Louise

[Adi F]

I think CAPE is one of the free charts available in the NW Datacentre which can be found under Weather on the menu at the top of the site.

Well done Jane, you beat me to it.

[Stuart]

Good luck all at the Weekend

[Jane Louise]

I think CAPE is one of the free charts available in the NW Datacentre which can be found under Weather on the menu at the top of the site.

Well done Jane, you beat me to it.

Lol Adi,

I knew it was around somewhere.

Good luck all at the Weekend

All the best Stu.

My storm chance has been downgraded as usual but it could well be upgraded nearer the time.

[Coast]

My storm chance has been downgraded as usual but it could well be upgraded nearer the time.

[Jane Louise]

:lol: Story of my life.

[NL]

I'm going with the UKMO and the ECMWF and not the GFS for the weekend as the former models get rid of that easterly influence which may help in throwing some storms this way.. Its awful seeing those high Li's and CAPE values just 40-50 mile inland and for east coastal regions having virtually no energy and + Lifted Index values...I'd be happy just to see turbulent skies with Td storms being a bonus..!!