Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Coast]

A whole new fresh thread for convective discussion!

[vortex_liam]

My forecast for today http://extremestormsuk.blogspot.com/2011_04_01_archive.html

[dogs32]

My forecast for today http://extremestormsuk.blogspot.com/2011_04_01_archive.html

love your page Liam

going to be many storms today I can feel it in my bones

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Todays the day, when I am not expexting any t storms or rain i will get it I just know :/

[Evening thunder]

Last night we managed 0.2mm of rain, was worried the house might flood. Ah well I guess seeing very distant flashes and rumbles was better than nothing.

Quite a bit of altocumulus here through the haze, Am glad to see this is clearing west on the sat images to allow more sunshine hopefully.

I was wondering if the planes flying round here for a while earlier were trying to make me think it was thundering by flying at a distance to produce a low rumbles this morning!

[Coast]

After a few rumbles and a couple of nice big flashes last night over Eastbourne, I'm encouraged with the start to the 2011 season.

ESTOFEX have a small area of the South in their forecast map for today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 30 Apr 2011 06:00 to Sun 01 May 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 30 Apr 2011 06:05

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for Tunisia and Sicily mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and a chance of tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for southern Belarus and northern Ukraine mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A large body of unstable air is present over large parts of Europe, except for the cold northern part, which is under a high pressure area, and a part of the Mediterranean Sea. Surface level low pressure is found mainly over the Iberian peninsula and around Sardinia. Mid level troughs with associated dynamic lifting are found over western France, Sicily/southern Italy, and Belarus, with cold fronts identifiable in the latter two locations. Due to weak capping many thunderstorms can develop over the continent, especially over higher terrain. The lack of vertical wind shear suggests absence of severe weather. Local flash floods are possible. Deep shear is a bit better on the southern border of the CAPE mass over the Balkans.

SkyWarn have:

Showery and unsettled conditions continue spreading from the South-east across Southern England, locally heavy in the South-west. Elsewhere dry and sunny, feeling fresh in the breeze.

No current Watch or Warning in effect.

Here are some charts:

Fairly good agreement on Cornwall and Devon through the afternoon with a remote chance it might creep up as far as Hants or even Sussex again.

[Stuart]

Good Luck all for Today

[vortex_liam]

love your page Liam

going to be many storms today I can feel it in my bones

Thanks

I have a feeling something going to go right in Germany or Belgium and get imported.

Good luck today... BTW my blog is add free

[MR CB]

Saw some Altocumulus this morning - did look a little of the castellanus variety...probably a good sign for later! Smaller chance for me today but still a possibility. Fingers crossed Coast! - cheers for the daily inputs.

[Stuart]

and looking at next week storms my risk is low

[vortex_liam]

May i just point out something. The 50% lightning is over where all the imports are coming from going towards the south west. And again for the south east. Also the dews and temps are looking good 13c with a dew of 8c

[Coast]

I should just point out in my haste to close the old thread, that there is a Netweather storm forecast out here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Neilsouth]

I really believe that the temp of the north sea is what killed those belgium storms last night towards east kent

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I really believe that the temp of the north sea is what killed those belgium storms last night towards east kent

But as other users said, if the storms are above a certain level they can retain their energy and build again as they hit land ? Is this right 0.o

[DeepSnow]

Today is looking better for me I would think, not so much cloud around so thats a better start, also temps already 16.3C and dewpoint at 8C, so better start to the day and hope any stroms that do develop can drift up to south wales

[philglossop]

We're in the firing line today by the looks of it. :yahoo:

[Kain]

Well with Nick's forcast I have a chance being in south shropshire. All the other forcasts I have no chance...I hope Nick is right

[slinky1989]

I'm at work in bath today so hopefully i'll see something in the way of a storm. Good luck to everyone though!

What sort of time are we expecting things to start developing?

[knocker]

But as other users said, if the storms are above a certain level they can retain their energy and build again as they hit land ? Is this right 0.o

More or less. There are number of factors to taken into account and they won't necessarily build again when they hit land when the diurnal heating is diminishing. Without flapping back through two million posts if I remember correctly yesterday evening most of the storms were originating in N. France up towards the Belgium border then tracking NW and then W under the steering wind when they hit the UK coasts. Some even affected southern Kent. I don't think the difference in sea temp from there to just around the corner would come into play. Of course I've been known to be wrong.

Just an update with the morning charts and the GFS 500mb wind forecast.

[Neilsouth]

More or less. There are number of factors to taken into account and they won't necessarily build again when they hit land when the diurnal heating is diminishing. Without flapping back through two million posts if I remember correctly yesterday evening most of the storms were originating in N. France up towards the Belgium border then tracking NW and then W under the steering wind when they hit the UK coasts. Some even affected southern Kent. I don't think the difference in sea temp from there to just around the corner would come into play. Of course I've been known to be wrong.

Just an update with the morning charts and the GFS 500mb wind forecast.

So why did the storms die as they left belgium and hit the north sea?, by the time the showers came onto the east kent coast and north kent it was just spits of rain. Some showers made it into the estuary and they still turned into a weak fart. I can understand the steering winds having an effect on the channel coastline but i was talking about the storms leaving belgium towards east kent

[MP-R]

Well good luck to all again today. Jeez, I hope something happens in this neck of the woods for a change. It's always getting the first storm of the year that's difficult - when you've had one, the next one seems to come along soon after. Anyway, sunny start to the day so diurnal heating should be getting underway and the temperature is rising quicker than yesterday as a result.

[knocker]

So why did the storms die as they left belgium and hit the north sea?, by the time the showers came onto the east kent coast and north kent it was just spits of rain. Some showers made it into the estuary and they still turned into a weak fart. I can understand the steering winds having an effect on the channel coastline but i was talking about the storms leaving belgium towards east kent

Without more detailed information one cannot be definitive but I more or less stick with my original answer. If you look at SST chart you will see why. Most of the strong developement was in NE France and it just may be the weaker devolpment in Belgium couldn't be sustained without the surface heating or some other factor.

[Sprites]

The storms yesterday were dependant on convection driven by the sun, hence no sun,no storms lol.

if a cold front had been moving through the southern U.K. last night or an occlusion,the storms may well have lasted alot longer.

[Wivenswold]

From a IMBY point of view I can't see anywhere in East Anglia getting a storm this weekend. My attention is already on the potential plume set-up next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[vortex_liam]

Can't see anything forming until at least this afternoon

Check out my forecast today at http://extremestormsuk.blogspot.com/