Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[DeepSnow]

Yep - all starting to kick off now - France looks really busy again

I doubt anything will reach us though due to the east/northeast wind being too strong and keeping them to our south??

[Lauren]

two bands of showers with thunder is developing in NE France, one north of Paris and one in the Lille/Saint-Quentin/Amiens triangle which are hopefully heading for us. and then there are the channel storms which are hitting the south-west coast as well, so plenty to keep your eyes on!

Do you think some of that might hit North Kent.

Where are you watching these storms?

Edited April 30, 2011 by Lauren

[ZONE 51]

this is my view on the situation at the moment..of developing activity over the channel, looks exciting down sw at the moment

Edited April 30, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[andymusic]

I doubt anything will reach us though due to the east/northeast wind being too strong and keeping them to our south??

It's a waiting game - lots of activity though - so may be a chance - again during darkness hours - much better displays

[chapmanslade]

The storms in the SW look to be backbuilding of sorts with initiation around Weymouth

I think anybody along the E/W line Honiton to Bude could see repeated storms all afternoon.

Over 20C here now so hoping the extra heat might break the weak cap soon. I'm not convinced any of the European stuff will make it far N from the far S coast like last night.

[A.J]

Ok, a few charts to illustrate whats happening and likely to happen

Chart 1. current SBCAPE (surface convective energy) for the UK - As shown over 1000j/kg of CAPE is being realised over east Devon..Plenty of energy available for cells to tap into to

Chart 2, current MLCAPE (mid-level convective erngy) for the UK - As shown, several hundred j/kg recorded in the same region, implying plenty of deep convective energy available. This can help longievity of thunderstorms...Also worth mentioning that there is plenty of MLCAPE building over the near continent, implying the chances of deep convection with surface based storms, plus a higher chance of elevated storms firing over the Low Countries and drifting into the SE

Chart 3. current Lifted Index values for the UK. As shown, the lower level air is very bouyant, this will aid quick cell development, as the air has the ability to rise quickly

Chart 4. Wind direction & velocity at the 700hpa boundary....As shown the steering winds for these cells are just north of west, and storms are building and quickly moving in this direction..Despite the lack of vertical wind sheer (300 hpa boundary winds are moving roughly in the same direction) I believe this won't hamper storms to develop and build, as the lower level steering winds are strong enough to avoid the hinderance of new updraught development for any given thunderstorm

All charts posted courtesy of SkywarnUk, using their GFS data set

[Adi F]

this is my view on the situation at the moment..of developing activity over the channel, looks exciting down sw at the moment

I personally think you are being optimistic!

The trough can clearly be seen by the precipitation line in the SW. The trough is forecasted to rotate on its axis and expands eastwards this evening. I am hoping this will be enough to force the weather coming in from the continent into some convective storms along the south coast of Dorset, Hampshire and into Sussex.

Time will tell.

[Jane Louise]

Just wondering, did Jane finally get a storm yesterday? I'm hoping she did as i know she has been wanting one for a long time. At some point this summer i'm hoping to see one over my area but Bradford doesn't do well for storms. Not sure why that is as Leeds seems to do okay as does the Manchester area.

Nice looking cells developing around Devon. Good luck to those way south today.

Hi Supacell

I had three rumbles of thunder and two flashes of lightning from a distant storm. Was a bit worried if it was going to be overhead due to being stuck in a field Lol.

Wishing you good luck for the Summer and anytime before of course . I feel this is going to be a good year for many of us.

[dogs32]

showers in Devon becoming electrified

[Jane Louise]

Ok, a few charts to illustrate whats happening and likely to happen

Chart 1. current SBCAPE (surface convective energy) for the UK - As shown over 1000j/kg of CAPE is being realised over east Devon..Plenty of energy available for cells to tap into to

Chart 2, current MLCAPE (mid-level convective erngy) for the UK - As shown, several hundred j/kg recorded in the same region, implying plenty of deep convective energy available. This can help longievity of thunderstorms...Also worth mentioning that there is plenty of MLCAPE building over the near continent, implying the chances of deep convection with surface based storms, plus a higher chance of elevated storms firing over the Low Countries and drifting into the SE

Chart 3. current Lifted Index values for the UK. As shown, the lower level air is very bouyant, this will aid quick cell development, as the air has the ability to rise quickly

Chart 4. Wind direction & velocity at the 700hpa boundary....As shown the steering winds for these cells are just north of west, and storms are building and quickly moving in this direction..Despite the lack of vertical wind sheer (300 hpa boundary winds are moving roughly in the same direction) I believe this won't hamper storms to develop and build, as the lower level steering winds are strong enough to avoid the hinderance of new updraught development for any given thunderstorm

All charts posted courtesy of SkywarnUk, using their GFS data set

Thanks AJ,

If only they could move up North East a tad to us lot.

[Stuart]

Good luck all down in the South West this afternoon and this evening I still have a big fat 0

[vortex_liam]

showers in Devon becoming electrified

Guess i was right...

http://extremestormsuk.blogspot.com/

Edited April 30, 2011 by vortex_liam

[NL]

Nice looking cell developing quite rapidly over NE France with the possibility of it coming ashore around Brighton...If it can hold together.

[ZONE 51]

[knocker]

There is a slight cap over the SE today that needs to be overcome before anything happens. The south west has no cap but the convective ceiling is only 24500 ft. Hopefully the trough forecast to cross the southwest will force the situation a little bit.

The trough is over the south west at midday. Why the cap at 24, 500 ft.?

[Adi F]

The trough is over the south west at midday. Why the cap at 24, 500 ft.?

Were did you get that Skew T sounding from?

[jojobut]

How accurate is the net weather radar for detecting lightening? If it is sheet lightening do radar's pick that up? Many thanks

[vortex_liam]

picks most of it up. Get nw lightning detector its DEADLY accurate from all the lightning stations in the uk

[Lauren]

Oh come on, send some storms North Kent way please, I've been so patient.

[NL]

Met office have 'yellow' warning out for SW for heavy thundery showers, funny how they issue warnings when the event has been happening for a couple of hours.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited April 30, 2011 by NL

[jojobut]

picks most of it up. Get nw lightning detector its DEADLY accurate from all the lightning stations in the uk

I'll give it a try, IOW one is rubbish, sometimes it seems ok, then sometimes not! Thanks

[Adi F]

The trough is over the south west at midday. Why the cap at 24, 500 ft.?

And that sounding was done before the trough was over the area so it is not reflecting what the atmosphere is doing right now.

[littlemissy]

I'm in Somerset and all afternoon we've had tantialising clouds ,and one vvvv brief shower .So close yet so far:-) .we have a very stiff breeze which I think breaks things up.

[striker]

Skies just gone black maybe the first storm of the year!

[chapmanslade]

How accurate is the net weather radar for detecting lightening? If it is sheet lightening do radar's pick that up? Many thanks

RADAR detects rainfall - or actually moving objects (RAdio Detection And Ranging)whereas lightning is detected using a radio atmospheric signal (sferic) detector. The more detectors the better the triangulation and hence accuracy when data is combined.