Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[Mumbles]

What are my chances of any storms today living in Sherborne, Dorset?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

those storms in the channel seem to be getting more powerful!

Looks like it Hope they come inland :)

[Lauren]

those storms in the channel seem to be getting more powerful!

Whereabouts in West Kent are you if you don't mind me asking?

Is it possible to feel the pressure change? I was out gardening and it seriously felt like the pressure suddenly dropped or would I just be imagining this?

[camiscool]

im in tunbridge wells

[richep]

Looks like anything coming out of france/continent,,, will not even make land fall... Will probably die out over the sea,,, if not will probably head west along the south coast. Just like last night

[camiscool]

<br />Looks like anything coming out of france/continent,,, will not even make land fall... Will probably die out over the sea,,, if not will probably head west along the south coast. Just like last night<br />

<br /><br /><br />

BY my eyes they dont seem to be dying out...

[staplehurst]

Current trajectories of the first storms look to make landfall somewhere around Eastbourne, maybe further west. Not looking particularly favourable for Kent at this stage. Those in Hastings/Eastbourne should look across the Channel, I'd imagine they'd look quite impressive!

[DeepSnow]

so much for south wales getting anything! will just have to hope for a good summer

Agreed, its been too long since I last saw a storm and getting impatient now! I guess we will have to hope for something decent in the summer

[Lauren]

Looks like the big stuff will go along the south coast. Theres two small systems higher up that may hit north kent if we get lucky, unlikely though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

come on?!!!!!

[MP-R]

Interesting how this area was supposedly a prime location for storms today yet nothing at all! Not very good forecasting.

[Neilsouth]

I see rather large anvils hundreds of miles to my south, and some broken up ones to my south east... They are VERY far away

[Coast]

Current trajectories of the first storms look to make landfall somewhere around Eastbourne,

No Skew-T to go from at the moment, but I'm keeping an eye on things never fear!

[staplehurst]

Interesting how this area was supposedly a prime location for storms today yet nothing at all! Not very good forecasting.

I must admit the models certainly have been over-enthusiastic with inland storms over the past couple of days - only one shower was homegrown yesterday over the S Mids into Wales, despite near enough every model going for widespread scattered showers. They have certainly struggled with Channel storms also.

[camiscool]

i have to say those storms are masssive

[richep]

<br /><br /><br />

BY my eyes they dont seem to be dying out...

I'm actualy being sefish and only talking for myself,,,, anything that needs to travel the continent here will probably doe before it even starts to head this way

[Neilsouth]

Interesting how this area was supposedly a prime location for storms today yet nothing at all! Not very good forecasting.

It's why i don't rate Torro or Estofex very highly

Now casting is the only way really :drinks:

[camiscool]

I'm actualy being sefish and only talking for myself,,,, anything that needs to travel the continent here will probably doe before it even starts to head this way

Im sorry im not selfish its just if you had storms coming towards you, you would be getting excited...

[Coast]

It's turning out to be a bit like last night TBH:

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 30/04/2011 18:11:41

Tracking 4 thunderstorms from the IOW

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID U-3263 detected 15:07

Storm location bearing 111.6 dgr distance 90 mi

Last recorded activity 18:10

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 7/minute

Total recorded strikes 191

Cloud-Ground strikes 68 - 35.60%

Intracloud strikes 123 - 64.40%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 32 - 16.75%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 36 - 18.85%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 63 - 32.98%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 60 - 31.41%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID T-1947 detected 14:45

Storm location bearing 278.3 dgr distance 242 mi

Last recorded activity 18:10

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 6/minute

Total recorded strikes 230

Cloud-Ground strikes 87 - 37.83%

Intracloud strikes 143 - 62.17%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 29 - 12.61%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 58 - 25.22%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 109 - 47.39%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 34 - 14.78%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID E-2630 detected 14:56

Storm location bearing 96.3 dgr distance 119 mi

Last recorded activity 18:11

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 8/minute

Total recorded strikes 366

Cloud-Ground strikes 132 - 36.07%

Intracloud strikes 234 - 63.93%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 66 - 18.03%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 66 - 18.03%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 76 - 20.77%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 158 - 43.17%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID R-3756 detected 15:15

Storm location bearing 211.0 dgr distance 117 mi

Last recorded activity 18:11

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 2/minute

Peak strikerate 5/minute

Total recorded strikes 173

Cloud-Ground strikes 62 - 35.84%

Intracloud strikes 111 - 64.16%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 45 - 26.01%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 17 - 9.83%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 39 - 22.54%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 72 - 41.62%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.8.0.7025:PCI

[MP-R]

It's why i don't rate Torro or Estofex very highly

Now casting is the only way really :drinks:

Very true, as is Staplehurst's post. Though, it has to be said, my greed for the 1st storm of the year always takes over. If storms weren't forecast in the first place, it wouldn't be a disappointment.

Bring on a cyclonic southerly or southwesterly - they give the best storms to us.

[Neilsouth]

I'll say this though, 2011 the year of the ne/easterly! It's come from that direction pretty much 80% of the time since pre 2011

[Evening thunder]

A couple more rumbles from a cell passing to my north.. Had a nice storm just to my north earlier, over 20 rumbles I'd think, some relatively loud rumbles. Followed by a cell with 3 more rumbles, one quite loud. Followed by a short sharp shower. Now a nice CB and some 'distantish' thunder.

No direct hits and didn't see any lightning (friends under it did though) but not a bad day for thunder here today, probably the best for a few years.

[95 Degrees]

Storms aren't losing their potentcy over the channel and continue their trek from Dieppe to Eastbourne westwards, looking good for Sussex!

[Neilsouth]

Storms aren't losing their potentcy over the channel and continue their trek from Dieppe to Eastbourne westwards, looking good for Sussex!

Maybe same thing happened last night then as we hit the night hours the storms rapidly decayed

[tomp456]

Storms aren't losing their potentcy over the channel and continue their trek from Dieppe to Eastbourne westwards, looking good for Sussex!

OH MY DAYS 'LOOKING GOOD FOR SUSSEX' YEEESSSSSSSSSS!!!! WILL THEY REACH WEST SUSSEX??

lets hope so