Convective Weather Discussion Uk

[knocker]

From a IMBY point of view I can't see anywhere in East Anglia getting a storm this weekend. My attention is already on the potential plume set-up next weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

This what you mean?

[Supacell]

This what you mean?

Certainly no plume setting up on gfs but from reading the forum i think its ecm showing a plume. Nothing much of note around my area in the next few days. Yesterday turned out to be a bit of a disappointment for most those expecting storms and i'm glad i made the decision not to chase. I still think anything in April is a bonus though. The real storm season starts tomorrow

[knocker]

Yes I was really making the point of the rather futile exercise in selecting odd charts several stations down the line. It's hard enough getting convective forecasts correct on the same day.

[Lauren]

I wish I could read most of those graphs and illustrations that were posted.

I don't think we'll get anything today. Last week it was very hot and then got humid in the venings but nothing came. All the weather forecasts have predicted heavy rain, but we've not had a drop for 2 weeks now. The other day you could smell it in the air but it still didn't fall.

[vortex_liam]

Line of cells. Might make it into S kent

[95 Degrees]

Don't rule it out as the odd stray shower could cross from Belgium into Kent if it makes it over but Eastbourne westwards into the SW looks good for some connective activity later on maybe! good luck people

[Bart Lett]

Sky is like a who's-who of convective cloud types here in Romsey at the moment. Recent light shower of big splodgy drops from one of the more developed towers. Something's going to fire soon I feel!

[slb97]

Sky is like a who's-who of convective cloud types here in Romsey at the moment. Recent light shower of big splodgy drops from one of the more developed towers. Something's going to fire soon I feel!

We have some great cloud formations here too which I didn't expect - thinking about getting in the car and going for a bit of a chase westbound!!

[Adi F]

There is a slight cap over the SE today that needs to be overcome before anything happens. The south west has no cap but the convective ceiling is only 24500 ft. Hopefully the trough forecast to cross the southwest will force the situation a little bit.

[vortex_liam]

There is a slight cap over the SE today that needs to be overcome before anything happens. The south west has no cap but the convective ceiling is only 24500 ft. Hopefully the trough forecast to cross the southwest will force the situation a little bit.

Its a thin cap... If it blows then the SE is good to go. Mainly imports for us today

[Adi F]

Its a thin cap... If it blows then the SE is good to go. Mainly imports for us today

It is a thin cap which need to achieve 22c to overcome but i think the temp will struggle to reach, if we get any imports i think they will be later this evening. I am thinking of heading SW to see what happens.

It is a thin cap which need to achieve 22c to overcome but i think the temp will struggle to reach, if we get any imports i think they will be later this evening. I am thinking of heading SW to see what happens.

Saying that a couple of showers have popped up in the channel and are heading towards the IoW.

We have some great cloud formations here too which I didn't expect - thinking about getting in the car and going for a bit of a chase westbound!!

slb97 if you are still on line I have just sent you a PM, re what you can see.

[Lynxus]

Im completely confused today lol...

The NW frontpage says i currently have a thunderstorm.. However its currently 21c and crystal clear..

Interesting.

[Karen Ann]

Just had a short sharp shower here. Feels pretty muggy out there so I guess there is a small chance I might be lucky enough later to hear a rumble or two. Had 4 flashes and a rumble here last night, I nearly missed them though as I had the TV on too loud!

[A.J]

The storms yesterday were dependant on convection driven by the sun, hence no sun,no storms lol.

if a cold front had been moving through the southern U.K. last night or an occlusion,the storms may well have lasted alot longer.

Only half the story, the home growns that pushed through the south midlands were surface based, a good number of the storms that passed through the English Channel were elevated storms and thus not reliant on surface heating/convection...They were formed by mid-level instability, as warm air aloft was destabilized by an encroaching trough over the near continent

Certainly no plume setting up on gfs but from reading the forum i think its ecm showing a plume. Nothing much of note around my area in the next few days. Yesterday turned out to be a bit of a disappointment for most those expecting storms and i'm glad i made the decision not to chase. I still think anything in April is a bonus though. The real storm season starts tomorrow

There's was a potential plume type scenario on the 00z GFS, this has disppeared on the 06z due to the low in the SW approaches being positioned a few hundred miles further south on the 06z run, effectively prolonging the easterly flow....It is just one run though, so eyes peeled for the 12z GFS and this afternoon's ECM to see if they agree with the 06z run

[Evening thunder]

Ooo - nice thunder rumbling to my north! a few a minute now.. looks like just missing me though.

[ZONE 51]

Thought i would re-post my chart i made last night ,had posted in early hours

[chapmanslade]

First electrical activity now in Devon / Cornwall as predicted

[andymusic]

Yep - all starting to kick off now - France looks really busy again

[devon lad]

Rumbling away now - 2nd strorm in as many weeks!

dl

[Evening thunder]

Oo - getting louder and closer! It may actually clip me!

[A.J]

Yep, lovely line of cells have rapidly developed in a line roughly Lyme Regis to Okehampton...tapping into some high convective energy

[ZONE 51]

a mass if significant activity is started over the channel this is likely to 'plume'and expand through the evening hours, a second night of channel watching! storms are in control of themselfs .. expect the un-expected!

[camiscool]

suppose it wont hit inland kent again.......still waiting for my storm!

[Supacell]

Just wondering, did Jane finally get a storm yesterday? I'm hoping she did as i know she has been wanting one for a long time. At some point this summer i'm hoping to see one over my area but Bradford doesn't do well for storms. Not sure why that is as Leeds seems to do okay as does the Manchester area.

Nice looking cells developing around Devon. Good luck to those way south today.

[95 Degrees]

two bands of showers with thunder is developing in NE France, one north of Paris and one in the Lille/Saint-Quentin/Amiens triangle which are hopefully heading for us. and then there are the channel storms which are hitting the south-west coast as well, so plenty to keep your eyes on!