Glastonbury 2011

[J10]

A discussion thread for the weather surrounding the Glastonbury festival 2011.

Net weather will be conducting forecasts as ever with more detailed forecasts nearer the time. The first preliminary look will happen later this week.

[stuboy]

Hooray! You know summer is coming when the Glastonbury thread begins! Only 48 days to go now! Surely it can't be as hot and dry as last year can it?

Edited May 4, 2011 by stuboy

[Jezzer]

Great work JACKONE, I know where I'll be looking over the next few weeks

[J10]

The first preliminary look at the festival period from the 22nd of June to the 26th June 2011.

At this stage I am looking at the daily forecasts from CFS, more to build up trends at this stage.

The first runs suggest mostly settled and dry with a few showers. However we remain at T+1056 , so still way away from any more than initial speculation.

I'll continue to collect the daily and weekly forecast as they come out and will do a round up of these on the the next update (Friday).

[Reub3n]

Yes! Thanks Jack!

[danbailey80]

Ladies and Gentlemen.....Will you please welcome back on stage....For a summer exclusive.......The one and only....Legend.....That is JACKONE...

Woooooooooooooop

Keep em coming Jackone...Much appriciated over at efestivals forums...

[PompeyFC]

brilliant, as soon as Jackone starts doing this I know Glasto is just round the corner !!!!

My tickets arrive soon aswell.!

If I was to express a preference for the weather at the end of June - more of the same as per last year please except please reduce that temp down from a scorching 28+ degrees to something more manageable around 24. I don't want much eh lol !

[waveydavey]

Dear All - As a new member can somebody explain in simple terms what CFS is and what T+1056 means?

My weather interest is all about the Summer and Winter and selfishly how it will impact on me, I have a feeling that I could end up be drawn very deeply in to this whole world if I am not careful!

Major priority at the moment is hoping for a dry and wind free Glastonbury festival anything else over that is a bonus.

Nice to meet you all.

[Fussy Onion]

Reading this forum is part of the definitive Glastonbury Festival experience!

I have to admit, more than a little worried that the last three years have been pretty good weather for Glasto (with last year being exceptional). Putting all your clever scientific stuff aside, law of averages tells me we are probably due a wet one - just please not the continually cold drizzle of 2007. I would be happy with a mixture of rain and sun as long as the weather was predominantly dry

Thanks Jackone as always.

Rachel

[Bottesford]

Are we including other festivals here?

If so add Beatherder taking place 1st-3rd July. Def hoping for dry, sunny and preferably warm weather!

[J10]

Dear All - As a new member can somebody explain in simple terms what CFS is and what T+1056 means?

My weather interest is all about the Summer and Winter and selfishly how it will impact on me, I have a feeling that I could end up be drawn very deeply in to this whole world if I am not careful!

Major priority at the moment is hoping for a dry and wind free Glastonbury festival anything else over that is a bonus.

Nice to meet you all.

No problem at all.

The CFS (Climate Forecasting System) is an American based model which runs daily weather forecasts nine months ahead. This is what I am basing my thoughts on, T+1056, is the time ahead of the forecast in hours, so T+1056 relates to 44 days ahead.

At this stage, we are trying to get very early indications of what the models suggest, and no real accuracy can really be deduced at this stage. But hopefully as time goes on we can get more of a picture of the likely weather around Late June.

[Pipine]

Hurray! Looking forward to watching the forecasts as we run up to the festival. I'm doing my annual offering to the rain gods (beautiful new wellies this year!) and hoping for a repeat of last years sunshiny goodness :-)

[J10]

First weekly summary of (very) long term modelling for the Glastonbury festival 2011. Sorry about the dalay from Friday, but this does mean I ahve been able to collect a full week of data to analyse.

CFS issue date

Monday 9 May :- Pressure building from the South West, and with winds from the West or South West, largely dry except for a few showers, Temps High Teens Wed - Fri, in the 20s over the weekend.

Tuesday 10 May :- High Pressure to start, but pressure falling with Low Pressure starting to edge in from west. Dry to start but rain at times over the weekend, some heavy, Temps low 20s to start, into the high teens for the weekend.

Wednesday 11 May :- Low Pressure over Scandinavia to start, with pressure building from the South West over the weekend. Some rain around on the Thursday and Friday, but largely dry over the weekend, temps mid to high teens.

Thursday 12 May :- Very Unsettled to start with heavy rain, slightly more settled over weekend as High builds in from South West but still with some rain at times, temps mid to high teens.

Friday 13 May :- Rather unsettled throughout with Low Pressure over or close to the UK, with rain quite possible on each day, temps mid to high teens.

Saturday 14 May :-Low Pressure to start, but high pressure slowly building from the South West. Heavy rain Mon-Fri, more showery over the weekend, temps in the mid teens generally.

So initial thoughts are for a rather unsettled festival, and rather cool to boot, luckily however these are very preliminary forecasts with plenty of time for things to change.

[Arnie Pie]

You may think iv`e posted this in the wrong thread............have a listen to the tune accompanying the time lapse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWZo_KLkTTw

[Interitus]

What's the big deal with Glastonbury?

Not stirring, just wondering why it gets a dedicated sticky when there are literally scores of festivals.

[PompeyFC]

its the biggest festival in the country by a mile

netweather is a well known site on the efestivals site as being a good weather forum and lots of efestivals board members are registered on here

the yearly weather thread over there is always huge lol and starts 6 months in advance

[devonhammer]

What do you make of Stewart Rampling's Summer forecast and how will that affect your Glastonbury forecasts?

Edited May 18, 2011 by devonhammer

[William of Walworth]

Welcome back JACK! B)

Your hard work with these forecasts is annually appeciated by very many.

What do you make of Stewart Rampling's Summer forecast and how will that affect your Glastonbury forecasts?

I'm interested in your thougths on this question too JACKONE -- cheers.

What's the big deal with Glastonbury?

Not stirring, just wondering why it gets a dedicated sticky when there are literally scores of festivals.

Pompey's already answred this -- but he's right, Glastonbury is the biggest festival by a huge extent, not just in the UK, but in Europe overall still I think -- it's a city the size of Bath for a week, and when your enjoyment is so very outdoors-centred,, so much hangs on whether you end up muddy/downpoured on or not!

Harsh memories of the total mudbath that was Glastonbury 2007** hang heavy with a fair few of us, so we're keen to know whether we'll avoid it.

**And 1997, 1998 for the more veteran of us .... :o

Edited May 18, 2011 by William of Walworth

[waveydavey]

No problem at all.

The CFS (Climate Forecasting System) is an American based model which runs daily weather forecasts nine months ahead. This is what I am basing my thoughts on, T+1056, is the time ahead of the forecast in hours, so T+1056 relates to 44 days ahead.

At this stage, we are trying to get very early indications of what the models suggest, and no real accuracy can really be deduced at this stage. But hopefully as time goes on we can get more of a picture of the likely weather around Late June.

Perfectly clear explanation - thank you very much.

The closer we get the clearer the picture and the more accurate the forecast is likely to be.

I always knew this to be the case, now I have a clearer understanding of one of the ways you put the picture together, thank you.

[J10]

What do you make of Stewart Rampling's Summer forecast and how will that affect your Glastonbury forecasts?

This is very good news, both in terms of the weather for Glastonbury and for Summer generally. I rate Stewart'a forecasts very highly as they gave been very accurate in the past.

What's the big deal with Glastonbury?

Not stirring, just wondering why it gets a dedicated sticky when there are literally scores of festivals.

I started doing this a few years ago, and I have always got a lot of feedback in relation to this. As a result this has kept going.

There are other music festival but not many have such a dedicated following.

If you want others done, please say which ones, and if there is enough interest we will starts thread, and certainly have an automated forecast for the major festivals.

The next update covering the latest CFS news will be issued later Sunday, together with a look at Stewart's forecast.

[J10]

Week 2 Update

Firstly by looking at the CFS charts.

Sunday 15 May :- A very unsettled spell of weather with Low Pressure anchored over the UK, for the 5 days, giving large amounts of rainfall for Glastonbury and indeed for much of the UK, Temps in the Mid teens.

Monday 16 May :- Low Pressure to the East on Wednesday, but High pressure edges in from the North for a few days, before low pressure edging in from the west. Some rain on the Wednesday, some showery rain for a few days, before more general rain edging in from the west on Sunday. With winds from the north, temps cool in the low to mid teens.

Tuesday 17 May :- Low Pressure on the Wednesday and Thursday, giving some heavy rain. High Pressure ridging in for southern areas of the UK from Friday onwards, so staying largely dry over Glastonbury. Temps largely in the mid teens.

Wednesday 18 May :- High pressure to start over northern areas, with low pressure to the South East, slowly pressure building for all areas from the west. Rain fringing Glastonbury for Thursday and Friday, but slowly drying up fro Friday and into the weekend. Temps in the mid to high teens.

Thursday 19 May:- Not Available

Friday 20 May:- High Pressure over the UK for much of the period, mostly dry but the chance of some showery rain over the Thursday. Temps in the low 20s.

Saturday 21 May :- Low Pressure over the UK on the Wednesday, High Pressure slowly ridging up from the South West from the Thursday. Patchy rain for Southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday, mostly dry after this. Temps generally in the mid teens.

So six forecasts issued this week, one goes for a washout festival, one for a dry and warm one. The remaining 4 go for a mix of unsettled weather and slightly more settled conditions, with the unsettled conditions largely over the first few days, and gradually turning more settled from the south west over the weekend.

Net Weather Summer Forecast

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess= is the forecast, and it goes for a largely dry period of weather for most of June, this is very encouraging news, and somewhat counters the thoughts of CFS above. Hopefully as we move closer to the festival period and into June, we will see the weather generally improving and also the longer term weather forecasts falling more into line of the dry and hot pattern suggested by Stewart.

[devonhammer]

This is very good news, both in terms of the weather for Glastonbury and for Summer generally. I rate Stewart'a forecasts very highly as they gave been very accurate in the past.

Thanks for that. On a technical point, does the CFS data do a "traditional" forecast - I studied meteorology over 20 yrs ago and we made a prediction based on current conditions, then made a prediction based on that and so on until you reach the target time, hence any slight error can become magnified and long range forecasts are all but impossible. Stewart's forecast is obviously looking at underlying climate events and so is not a weather forecast in the traditional sense, but is looking at how El Nino/La Nina and Atlantic temperature affect pressure systems on a wider scale. Therefore there is a marked contrast between the two predictions.

Is this correct, or am I barking up the wrong tree?

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for that. On a technical point, does the CFS data do a "traditional" forecast - I studied meteorology over 20 yrs ago and we made a prediction based on current conditions, then made a prediction based on that and so on until you reach the target time, hence any slight error can become magnified and long range forecasts are all but impossible. Stewart's forecast is obviously looking at underlying climate events and so is not a weather forecast in the traditional sense, but is looking at how El Nino/La Nina and Atlantic temperature affect pressure systems on a wider scale. Therefore there is a marked contrast between the two predictions.

Is this correct, or am I barking up the wrong tree?

I think there could be a lot in this to explain some of the discrepancies devonhammer -- you ask a good question!

To return to the point about why Glastonbury weather forecasts are so important for annual Pilton pilgrims like us and so much in demand. Another big reason is this : what with the central parts of the festival being mostly based in the valley, and even the upper parts (Green Fields etc) being only part of the way up the hillsides, then that site is more prone than most to floods and mudbaths when rain is heavy. Admittedly Michael Eavis has spent a lot on improved site drainage in recent years, but even he can't completely overcome the fact that the soil over the whole site is clay and naturally drains poorly ...... add 180,000 people trudging across the site at all times during the festival, and not all site vehicles sticking entirely to the solid roads either, then you know what can happen

Hence the anxiety of us mud haters -- when Glastonbury gets rainy, it can get a REAL mudbath .... much more than smaller festivals on chalkier sites ,,,,

Dust and heat however, we can deal with calmly ....

Edited May 23, 2011 by William of Walworth

[J10]

In a traditional sense the CFS is a normal weather model based on current data to arrive at a forecast. However it is done at a huge time out, only run once a day and I think 7 days in arrears and is still very much in the experimental phase.

To base a Glastonbury forecast on 1 CFS run would be foolish, however basing it on 14 runs, and you may start to see some sort of pattern emerging and this far from the festival that's probably the best you can get.

I can understand those who would ignore forecasts this far out, but personally as long as you can see the limitations of long term weather forecasting, I don't really see that much of a problem in getting a very early indications of the possible weather.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html shows the performance of the main short and medium term models, I don't know if similar analysis has been carried out on the CFS.

[devonhammer]

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html shows the performance of the main short and medium term models, I don't know if similar analysis has been carried out on the CFS.

Thanks for that, I had a search around on their site and found lots of model analysis. Interesting stuff. It definitely shows that the EC forecast is superior to all others. UKMO is typically slightly better than GFS, but this is based on the entire Northern Hemisphere. Would people agree that UKMO is more accurate in the UK and GFS is more accurate in the US? The article here shows BBC forecasts (UKMO) as being much worse than AccuWeather (GFS) in the US and so would bear this out, but what do people think?

Edited May 26, 2011 by devonhammer