Glastonbury 2011

[johnholmes]

Thanks for that, I had a search around on their site and found lots of model analysis. Interesting stuff. It definitely shows that the EC forecast is superior to all others. UKMO is typically slightly better than GFS, but this is based on the entire Northern Hemisphere. Would people agree that UKMO is more accurate in the UK and GFS is more accurate in the US? The article here shows BBC forecasts (UKMO) as being much worse than AccuWeather (GFS) in the US and so would bear this out, but what do people think?

the comment about BBC forecasts for anywhere is pretty valid. Quite why they rate worse than the Met O when its Met O forecasteres who are responsible for both outputs I have never understood.

I would imagine if a similar test was carried out using Met O web site output then it would be in the top 2 or 3 in USA and is usually the most reliable, of the major outputs, for the UK.

[William of Walworth]

All suitable health warnings attached,but the Met Office medium term (written) forecast does seem to want to keep most of June mostly dry, and often warm and sunny in the South. And goes up to Friday 24th (Glastonbury week) now too .....

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 May 2011 to Thursday 9 Jun 2011:

A northwest-southeast split across the UK looks likely for the rest of the first week. The most unsettled weather will affect northwestern areas' date=' with northwest Scotland at risk of some heavy and persistent rain and strong winds. Further southeast, England and Wales will have predominantly dry and often quite sunny weather with light winds, and it is likely to become warm, perhaps very warm. This drier, warmer weather may extend to many northern areas for a time at least. There is a small chance that more generally unsettled conditions may return from the west. [b']Into the following week a good deal of dry weather still appears likely accompanied by above-normal temperatures, especially in the south, although some weak bands of rain or showers are likely from time to time.

Updated: 1241 on Thu 26 May 2011

UK Outlook for Friday 10 Jun 2011 to Friday 24 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK, so a good deal of dry weather around with some rain or showers on occasion. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part, which will help temperatures to achieve generally above average, or even well above the average in some areas, especially in the south.

Updated: 1241 on Thu 26 May 2011

Lets hope this verifies enough to give us a very -filled Glastonbury! B)

(You'll notice that I'm not discussing any of he above mentions of r**n for now ... )

Edited May 26, 2011 by William of Walworth

[J10]

Thanks for that, I had a search around on their site and found lots of model analysis. Interesting stuff. It definitely shows that the EC forecast is superior to all others. UKMO is typically slightly better than GFS, but this is based on the entire Northern Hemisphere. Would people agree that UKMO is more accurate in the UK and GFS is more accurate in the US? The article here shows BBC forecasts (UKMO) as being much worse than AccuWeather (GFS) in the US and so would bear this out, but what do people think?

As that relates to the US, I find that analysis fairly irrelevant to forecasts in eh UK. As John says the Met Office 5 day forecast is usually quite close to being right, but day 5 is a lot more suspect compared to recent days.

All suitable health warnings attached,but the Met Office medium term (written) forecast does seem to want to keep most of June mostly dry, and often warm and sunny in the South. And goes up to Friday 24th (Glastonbury week) now too .....

Lets hope this verifies enough to give us a very -filled Glastonbury! B)

(You'll notice that I'm not discussing any of he above mentions of r**n for now ... )

There are also tentative sings that the start of June is looking more settled on both ECM and GFS, anything that ties in with Stewart's forecasts is to be welcomed for those looking for a warm and sunny June generally and also more specifically for the Glastonbury festival.

[J10]

The next update will be on Tuesday, with all of the CFS up until then.

[J10]

Week 3 Update

Firstly by looking at the CFS charts.

Sunday 22 May :- Rather unsettled with Low Pressure on or over the UK for much of the time. Cool with temps in mid to high teens, with rain at times, this heavier and more persistent from Friday onwards, with heavy rain possible on Sunday.

Monday 23 May :- Not Available

Tuesday 24 May :- Low Pressure to the East on Wednesday, but High pressure of sorts edges in for a few days, before more low pressure comes back in on the Sunday. Damp on Wednesday, turning drier for a few days, turning drizzly on Saturday with the chance of more general rain on the Sunday from the west, Temps in the mid teens.

Wednesday 25 May :- Low Pressure to the East on Wednesday, with High Pressure nudging in soon after, over the weekend a westerly flow over the UK, but with generally high pressure over southern half of UK. A chance of rain for most days, but generally mostly dry over southern parts of the UK, with High Pressure nearby, Temps in the mid to high teens.

Thursday 26 May:- Low Pressure to the North on Wednesday, high pressure slowly building but with Low pressure fringing SE areas on Sunday. Some rain on Wednesday, mostly dry Thursday to Saturday, then a chance of rain on Sunday, Temps high teens perhaps low 20s.

Friday 27 May:- Low Pressure to the South and East on Wednesday, pressure slowly building from the north over the period. A rather messy picture with some rain possible on quite a few days, Rather warm with temps high teens to start, into the 20s over the weekend.

Saturday 28 May :- High Pressure to start, but low pressure gradually edging up from the south, with easterly winds throughout. Temps in the mid to high teens and dry to start with some rain over the weekend.

So 6 forecasts issued this week, most of them go for a rather mixed festival, not massively hot, with a slight suggestion that perhaps Wednesday and Sunday are the wettest, with the Thursday- Saturday periods being drier.

[Fussy Onion]

Still looking optimistic.

I will however be packing everything in waterproof bags and wearing my wellies to travel in just in case.

[PompeyFC]

6 days until the GFS is in range

[J10]

Week 4 Update

Firstly by looking at the CFS charts.

Sunday 29 May :- High Pressure to start but moving away allowing low pressure to nudge in from the North East. Dry to start but rain from the north for Friday and Saturday, looking drier on Sunday, Temps mid teens, but cooler over weekend.

Monday 30 May :- Low pressure over Northern parts of the UK, but High pressure further south, so looking mostly dry for Glastonbury, perhaps some rain on the Sunday. Temps low teens into the 20s by the weekend.

Tuesday 31 May :- Low Pressure throughout, firstly to the east, before another area of rain edges in from the west. Rain expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential of heavy rain again on the Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday 1 June :- Low Pressure covering the UK for the festival period, but with High Pressure trying to nudge in from the South. Some rain seems possible for quite a few days mainly at the start of the festival, but looking damp rather than wet. Temps high teens.

Thursday 2 June :- Low Pressure pretty much anchored over the UK for the festival period. So looking very wet to start but perhaps damp over the weekend, so a washout festival, temps in the mid teens.

Friday 3 June :- Low Pressure over much of the festival period, but quite flabby and not that deep. Quite a damp festival with some rain possible on each day and some of this might be heavier over the weekend. Temps in the mid to high teens.

Saturday 4 June :- Low Pressure over much of the festival period, with a deep area of low pressure from the wast for the weekend. Most of the days look set to get heavy rain, temps high teens to start, falling to mid teens by the weekend.

So 7 forecasts issued this week, Sunday, Wednesday and Friday looks rather mixed, Monday looks dry, with Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday looking wet.

In Summary 1 looks dry, 3 look mixed and 3 looking a washout, not that encouraging to be honest.

June has not started as well as you would have hoped, but the experts seem to be suggest that June may start improving in the 2nd half, fingers crossed that is right.

Tomorrow sees GFS come into range, so there will be daily forecasts issued covering at least 2 of the GFS forecasts each day, these will be issues in their own individual thread.

[Fussy Onion]

Saturday 4 June :- Low Pressure over much of the festival period, with a deep area of low pressure from the wast for the weekend. Most of the days look set to get heavy rain, temps high teens to start, falling to mid teens by the weekend.

Might be needing my woollies at this rate

[Jezzer]

It's going to be a rollercoaster ride waiting to see how it'll turn out. I remember last year's countdown doing my head in.

Not particularly positive at the moment but we're still a long way off in forecasting terms, keep everything crossed!

[William of Walworth]

Any idea jack on whether CFS have any consistent track record of being more pessimistic than closer range output (which I gather is based on somewhat different methodology) from GFS, ECM, MetOffice etc?

Surely that idea from CFS of mid teens temperatues is badly undercooking the likely pudding?

I'm clutching at straws here, and right now fearing a washout greatly, but one or two members in the MOD thread have posted some slightly more optimistic suggestions from currentl available output (albeit still FI atm) for immediately prior to Glastonbury.

That said, Stuart's updated sumer foreasts, with it's sugestion of an unsettled spell right over the festival period, but with warmer more settled weather both before and after, is making me seriously downhearted.

Let's hope Jezzer''s right and that we still have time for a turnaround. Some MOD members are continuing to show evidence based hope that could still be one before too long, and are quite rightly refusing to write off the whole of June yet.

Others are talking of a refired up Atlantic with a series of Southerly Tracking depressions -- my least favourite summer concept ever!!! -- just when we don't want them.

This makes me depressed myself!

Edited June 6, 2011 by William of Walworth

[J10]

CFS has consistently gone for a largely unsettled festival. Its accuracy is very difficult to determine, and it is more about patterns that far out. and we will see its accuracy in a few weeks time.

As for the CFS temperature forecast I have little faith in its accuracy to be honest. As an example I am going to publish the charts that relate to the 5th June, to give a bit more detail, (not that this set of charts is more accurate than any others.)

[Summer Sun]

These charts could be nice if they come off for the start of the festival.

[J10]

These charts could be nice if they come off for the start of the festival.

The first daily forecast is currently being done as we speak, including those charts.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm is much more unsettled than the gfs.... I hope for you Guys its wrong!

[J10]

is the first daily update for Glastonbury.

[devonhammer]

http://forum.netweat...1-gfs-6th-june/ is the first daily update for Glastonbury.

Thanks for this. A lot of people will be hanging on your every word for the next few weeks.

[Summer Sun]

Well Positive weather solutions are issuing forecasts now for Glastonbury so here it is,

The prospects aren't that bad for the event, and with Emma intending on going, there will be a very keen pair of eyes monitoring the situation our end. It doesn't look like the passage of weather will be that kind to the festival, but neither will it be an outright washout either.

High pressure is expected to be there or thereabouts after we negate this current pattern of cool, showery, and often breezy weather. There would appear to be a turning point though in this trend from around the middle of next week, which could set things up nicely for not just Glastonbury but Wimbledon too which is first the firing line.

Of course, 2012 will be a Glastonbury Festival free year, with the ground being allowed to breathe properly during late June for a change, and gather itself for 2013. The forecast then in the words of Mr P is looking 'favourable'.

Charlotte Haines Assistant Weather Forecaster Tuesday June 7th 2011

Thoughts anyone?

Edited June 7, 2011 by Gavin D

[William of Walworth]

Well Positive weather solutions are issuing forecasts now for Glastonbury so here it is,

Thoughts anyone?

I'm sceptical about Positive Weather Solutions -- I suspect they're selecting information to fit their name ....

I've read JACK's update from today in the other thread -- he analyses GFS and ECM output far more more balancedly and objectively IMO, in his update there remains plenty of room for worry -- as even PWS reluctantly admit the possibiity for ....

.

But at this stage, signals towards an avoidance of a complete Glasto washout/mudbath. Possibly.

This has to count as a an anti-suicidal post on my part ....

<FEAR!!!! >

Edited June 7, 2011 by William of Walworth

[J10]

I'm sceptical about Positive Weather Solutions -- I suspect they're selecting information to fit their name ....

I've read JACK's update from today in the other thread -- he analyses GFS and ECM output far more more balancedly and objectively IMO, in his update there remains plenty of room for worry -- as even PWS reluctantly admit the possibiity for ....

.

But at this stage, signals towards an avoidance of a complete Glasto washout/mudbath. Possibly.

This has to count as a an anti-suicidal post on my part ....

<FEAR!!!! >

If you are looking for a straw to clutch onto it is that High Pressure is at least attempting to ridge into Southern areas, early next week at least according to GFS, admittedly it doesn't last to Glastonbury, but that is very much in the longer term at the moment.

[William of Walworth]

Someone mentioned the dread words 'Southerly Tracking Jet (FI)' in the main MOD thread.

<straws collapse>

[duggyfresh]

It's great to see JACKONE still doing these forecasts. Haven't been to Glastonbury since 2008, but headed straight here for weather info. Sorry to say though, I'm not liking what I'm seeing recently!! I'm getting too old for another mudbath!!

Thanks JACKONE, you're reports are greatly appriciated!

[William of Walworth]

It's great to see JACKONE still doing these forecasts. Haven't been to Glastonbury since 2008, but headed straight here for weather info. Sorry to say though, I'm not liking what I'm seeing recently!! I'm getting too old for another mudbath!!

So'm I. And we haven't yet got the money to afford a campervan yet ....

Thanks JACKONE, you're reports are greatly appreciated!

Multiple thanks from me too, if I show grumpiness and moodswings, or issue downbeat rants etc about the negativity of some prospects, please don't think I'm shooting the messenger!

I know you work very hard on this, and I know that many people on other sites regularly check these updates out.

That said, I want to have a pointless rant against the pre Glastonbury 'roller coaster ride' that Jezzer mentioned, the rides that us festival goers seem to have to endure over the weeks ahead, year after year.

Last year's festival was one of the warmest and most consistently sunny for years (best since 2003 many said, maybe even since 1995!).

But even in 2010, we had to sweat it right until very close to the festival, with prospects very far from reliable for a rain/mud free one until very close to the start. That precedent provides a little grounds for hope I suppose that there just may be a repeat of the very late, underpredicted/unpredictable turnaround that we had in 2010.

But right now with all this current talk of southerly tracking jets and unsettled being the dominant word of the moment -- some on the MOD thread have talked of the return of the westerlies being set in for the rest of the month!! -- I'm very far from optimistic.

When are we going to get another 1995 (a in proper summer conditions being readily predicted from well beforehand)??

I remember 1995 clearly, up there among the best ever of hot sunny festivals..

The middle of that month had a fair amount of northerly wind driven weather (which actually produced dry/cool/quite sunny for many up to about the 16th or so of the month). BUT with a return of strong High Pressure for the end of the month predicted pretty consistently from an early stage.

If Netweather's Glastonbury forecast thread had existed in those days we'd have had very reassuring festival forecasts from a really early stage.

KNOWING that we're near certain to get a dry one is my fondest wish from a fortnight ahead onwards, with few forecast variations!

Once again though, despite Stuart's lovely long term summer forecast, now sadly superseded/outdated, we have no chance of this. Dreams of talk of Northerly Tracking jets, the weak/dormant Atlantic, anticyclonic dominated conditions, etc., etc., are right now being replaced all ove the shop by the opposites ...

If by some absolutely outside freak of good fortune we suddenly see hopes of good settled weather arriving like the Cavalry as the festival approaches, such would happen desparately late.

Right now I'm close to assuming that we're going to get another mudbath of 2007 proportions. We've not had a full on mudbath since that year, we're well overdue one and to use an unmeteorological term, we're owed one -- well that's my nightmare I'm afraid.

<close to giving up ... >

Edited June 8, 2011 by William of Walworth

[Jezzer]

Keep the faith W o W, the latest GFS are rolling out and there appears to be slightly more High pressure making its presence felt. Take a look, it's far more positive, all we can hope is that it's not a blip and the beginning of a trend that GP did pick up on as far as mid month onwards was concerned .

I'm keeping everything crossed, and I've already had this rollercoaster once already, tracking my wedding day weather for mid-May was not good for my heart, as it turned out after a shocking forecast (hail showers and 14oc was forecast up to three days before the event) all turned out fine, dry and sunny in the end. All is not lost!

[J10]

There is no need to apologise for being grumpy, it may be justified, or it may not, and I say that before looking at today's charts.

Also are there any amendments you or indeed anyone would want when showing the charts and the ones I post of the daily forecast blogs. Would more detail or more imagery be welcomed. Unfortunately there are some technical problems with Ensembles or I would be using them as well.