Glastonbury 2011

[Summer Sun]

Deepest into FI but some hope? If that in the Atlantic shifted over to us we would be well hot.

[duggyfresh]

I've seen both extremes of the Glastonbury weather - the boiling hot 1995 and the Battle of the Somme like conditions in 1997. I worked after the festival in 97 and I swear it was actually sleeting at one point. But then again I don't think I could handle a festival like last year. Coolish and sunny with scattered showers would be just fine for me. Doesn't drain your energy and an occasional shower keeps the dust down. Not a fan of being baked out of my tent at 8 in the morning either as I'm a bit of a night owl.

I really don't think it's going to be a total mudbath to be honest. I don't think the rain will be persistent enough, and I think we'll probably have some sunny spells that will dry up the ground in between. I'm optimistic. I don't think it will be "perfect" festival weather but I don't think it's going to be a complete disaster either!

[J10]

I have done the latest update here, http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69820-glastonbury-gfs-update-8th-june/

and this also contains a new 0-10 scale for either a Dustbowl or washout Festival.

[stuboy]

Just out of curiosity, are the Glastonbury 2009 & 2010 threads still in existance? I tried searching but came up with nothing. I just wanted to have a quick scan through them and see how close to before the festival the forecast was predicted. Despite going to both these festivals and following the threads on here, I must confess to having completely forgotten about the forecasting run up to the festival.

Unlike last year, I'm starting to feel pretty certain my wellies are going to get a run out, having spend 2 years unused in a plastic bag!

Edited June 8, 2011 by stuboy

[William of Walworth]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69810-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2087137

In the above post (latest in the main MOD thread) The Eye in the Sky seems pretty convinced that we're now locked into a Southerly Tracking Jet for the foreseeable future (next 300-400 hours at least, anyway).

Which if he's right, and taken in combination with the latest very grim looking output with very few if any signs of High Pressure bulding anywhere near the SW or indeed UK at any time up to and including Glastonbury, pretty much wipes out any hopes we have of good weather for the festival

Would JACK and others like to offer their thoughts on the Jetstream aspect? Are my fears exaggerated?

[devonhammer]

I'm very pessimistic. Trying to stay positive on the eFestivals forum, but realistically it's not looking good.

Plenty of time to change though. Lets see what the ECM say after the weekend.

[duggyfresh]

This, however looks fairly promising. I'm in Cheltenham which is pretty close to Glastonbury, and we haven't had any heavy rain for a very long time.

From the METO UK Further Outlook thread.

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Jun 2011 to Friday 8 Jul 2011:

Fairly changeable weather is expected to continue, especially across northern and western parts of the United Kingdom, where showers or rain are most likely. The south and east should see more in the way of drier and brighter conditions but there is still a chance of a little rain at times. Temperatures are likely to remain close to average in most areas, but will probably remain a little below average where any rain persists in the north and west. However, some southern and eastern parts of the UK may continue to see above average temperatures at times.

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69838-attachments-glastonbury-gfs-update-9th-june/ , the latest update has been issued.

Last Years Thread

Daily updates were kept in here http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/85-netweather-forecaster-blogs/

On an optimistic level, the outlook last year was not that promising, and last year turned out OK.

[duggyfresh]

Yes it turned out "OK" didn't it - one one of the very few years I haven't been! GRRR!

Looking at the outputs for June 9th last year, it's saying High pressure moving away the weekend before the Festival and not looking too good at all.

So it just goes to show - IT'S ALL STILL TO PLAY FOR!!!

[William of Walworth]

Agreed. Even with this morning's really a lot more dire output (postdating JACKONE's latest forecast), the reliable timeframe is no later so far than around the 16th (if what TWS has just posted in the MOD thread is correct re reliability)

I've been fighting a rather desparate battle in the MOD thread, with all current evidence against me, to dissuade people from writing off the whole of the rest of June on the basis of current bad model output.

But faint grounds of hope still just about remain for now, if only on the back of what happened last year.

We really need some noticeably improved models to start kicking in over the next four or five days though ....

And as for last year, 'OK' was undeplaying it a tad. It turned out to be wall to wall sunshine and no rain for ten days. I think a betting man would find very very long odds against a repeat this time though. Best we can hope for (IMO) is only a moderate downgrade with 'not too much' of the wet stuff. Lets hope I'm able to post differenty next week ...

Edited June 10, 2011 by William of Walworth

[duggyfresh]

Where are you viewing the dire outputs you've seen this morning WoW?

[Summer Sun]

Where are you viewing the dire outputs you've seen this morning WoW?

Hi, from here - http://www.wetterzen...n/fsecmeur.html - plenty of dire outputs at present

And the deepest into FI

Loads of heat all around us but the low pressure is been very stubborn and just won't leave at present.

Edited June 10, 2011 by Gavin D

[duggyfresh]

Thank you Gavin D.

Looks like it's giving way to a ridge of high pressure during the Festival period though? Sorry I'm new to all this, but looks like it to me on those charts.

It's not the Temperature I'm worried about at all, it's the rainfall.

Edited June 10, 2011 by duggyfresh

[J10]

Hi, from here - http://www.wetterzen...n/fsecmeur.html - plenty of dire outputs at present

And the deepest into FI

Loads of heat all around us but the low pressure is been very stubborn and just won't leave at present.

Those charts do not show heat, merely the pressure at 500Hpa.

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69876-glastonbury-gfs-update-10th-june/ is the link for the latest run.

[duggyfresh]

It's just thrashed it down with rain in Cheltenham. And tomorrow looks absolutely awful. Can anyone give me anything to smile about today please??

[Wivenswold]

I seem to recall that the forecasts where looking showery at this point for last year. Then it just got better and better. You could do with rain on the Wednesday to be honest, the queues last year were half a mile long when the gates opened.

[Summer Sun]

I seem to recall that the forecasts where looking showery at this point for last year. Then it just got better and better. You could do with rain on the Wednesday to be honest, the queues last year were half a mile long when the gates opened.

Well we can safely safe this year it won't get better it will just stay as it is for a while yet.

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69876-glastonbury-gfs-update-10th-june/

Today's forecast has now been completed. Still no massive signs of improvement, but these are slight hints it might just settled down before Glastonbury.

Even if it doesn't, there is a a very decent chance that Glastonbury will be damp with showers rather than wet.

[duggyfresh]

I should stay away from this thread. It playing havoc with my bowels.

[William of Walworth]

It's just thrashed it down with rain in Cheltenham. And tomorrow looks absolutely awful. Can anyone give me anything to smile about today please??

Not far off wall to wall sunshine in Cardiff (earlier) and Swansea (later, on our return from our trip) from about 4 pm ish onwards

Pretty sure today was the calm before tomorrow's predicted disgusting UK wide wet weather mind, but I suppose even in these Westerly dominated synoptic flows, the odd nice day can pop up unexpectedly .... not hot by any means in Wales today, but very pleasant.

We might get the odd pleasant day -- or half day -- within the Glasto period too.

Edited June 11, 2011 by William of Walworth

[PompeyFC]

06z a much better run

[Summer Sun]

PWS seem to be fairly cautious with their forecast,

Forecast

The forecast for Glastonbury looks rather mixed with at present Wednesday and Thursday holding essentially dry with some limited amounts of sunshine, variable cloud, and temperatures coming in at around 18 Celsius. For Friday to Sunday, expect more of a mixture with increased temperatures, but also an increased threat of rain, with some dryer interludes. The system is showing a heightened risk of thunderstorm activity, although personally, I do not believe this will happen. A mud bath scenario cannot now be ruled out by the end of the festival on Sunday but with some time still to go, it's 50/50 on that score. I'm still looking forward to being in attendance.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Sunday June 12th 2011

[duggyfresh]

Forecast showing no rainfall over the festival period here -

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Glastonbury&selected=0

but I don't know how reliable or respected this site's forecasts are. I can't see us getting no rain judging by the current weather conditions. I think we'd be very very lucky if this forecast were true.

[Summer Sun]

Forecast showing no rainfall over the festival period here -

http://www.theweathe...bury&selected=0

but I don't know how reliable or respected this site's forecasts are. I can't see us getting no rain judging by the current weather conditions. I think we'd be very very lucky if this forecast were true.

Like you say there is 12 day's left yet so it's quite difficult to predict what will happen, some models are hinting at a NW / SE split so if that does occur then Glastonbury may avoid some rain but this time next week things will become clearer.......................Hopefully