Glastonbury 2011

[J10]

Forecast showing no rainfall over the festival period here -

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Glastonbury&selected=0

but I don't know how reliable or respected this site's forecasts are. I can't see us getting no rain judging by the current weather conditions. I think we'd be very very lucky if this forecast were true.

I think those are computer generated probably from GFS, in which case they do not seem to match up to what I am seeing.

Today's forecast has now been uploaded and is here.

All of the past forecasts, have been merged into 1 thread here.

[duggyfresh]

Reasons to be cautiously optimistic? I'll take that for today thank you. It's just nice to see some hope of avoiding a washout emerging.

[William of Walworth]

My hope levels are pretty much at rock bottom at the moment to be honest, despite JACK's reasonable forecast. This is almost certainly influenced by it having barely stopped raining heavily for close on 24 hours here in West Wales, only just stopping now (currently grey and drizzling). Reports from the festival site say they had it pretty heavy in Smerset all day yesteday too.

Get another day anything like yesterday's at any point next week, with 180,000 pairs of bots on site, and it's Muddaggeddon time for definite.

It's Monday morning and I'm getting seriously depressed.

Edited June 13, 2011 by William of Walworth

[danbailey80]

My hope levels are pretty much at rock bottom at the moment to be honest, despite JACK's reasonable forecast. This is almost certainly influenced by it having barely stopped raining heavily for close on 24 hours here in West Wales, only just stopping now (currently grey and drizzling). Reports from the festival site say they had it pretty heavy in Smerset all day yesteday too.

Get another day anything like yesterday's at any point next week, with 180,000 pairs of bots on site, and it's Muddaggeddon time for definite.

It's Monday morning and I'm getting seriously depressed.

The sight dries out in 2 days.. Do not despair... Be grateful this has happened 2 weeks early...

Remember 2008 and 2009 both rained loads on Thursday evening but were still dry by Sat morning...

Loads of time and hope left mate - chin up...

[trickydickie]

:unsure:

My hope levels are pretty much at rock bottom at the moment to be honest, despite JACK's reasonable forecast. This is almost certainly influenced by it having barely stopped raining heavily for close on 24 hours here in West Wales, only just stopping now (currently grey and drizzling). Reports from the festival site say they had it pretty heavy in Smerset all day yesteday too.

Get another day anything like yesterday's at any point next week, with 180,000 pairs of bots on site, and it's Muddaggeddon time for definite.

It's Monday morning and I'm getting seriously depressed.

If Its mud you fear I'm afraid its a bit late to worry..... a few photos here:

http://www.worthyfm.com/

Pack your wellies and a small folding chair and you'll have nothing to worry about.. :0

[helentheroberts]

My hope levels are pretty much at rock bottom at the moment to be honest, despite JACK's reasonable forecast. This is almost certainly influenced by it having barely stopped raining heavily for close on 24 hours here in West Wales, only just stopping now (currently grey and drizzling). Reports from the festival site say they had it pretty heavy in Smerset all day yesteday too.

Get another day anything like yesterday's at any point next week, with 180,000 pairs of bots on site, and it's Muddaggeddon time for definite.

It's Monday morning and I'm getting seriously depressed.

Me too me too me too.

The thought of pitching in a mudbath and trudging round in a lake of mud all festival fills me with horror. It's always a gamble isn't it, Glasto?

Please let it change. Cmon cmon cmon!

[jethro]

:unsure:

If Its mud you fear I'm afraid its a bit late to worry..... a few photos here:

http://www.worthyfm.com/

Pack your wellies and a small folding chair and you'll have nothing to worry about.. :0

It isn't a mud bath down there. Yes, it's been a rather wet 24 hours but the site dries out quickly, it's been dry down here for ages:problems happen down there when the land is already saturated - it isn't, it's bone dry. It's currently drizzling, nothing more. Hubby will be on and off site all next week so can give mud reports if any one is interested.

[N5THM]

Hi All

New to the site but i've been keeping my eye on this thread, I live about 1 mile from the festival site, Yesterday it pretty much rained all day and heavy at times. Fingers crossed that next week it perks up, Im going onsite on Tuesday. It doesn't really matter how much it rains leading up to it as the lorry's dont cause to much of a mess as the main roadways have all been concreted now.

And last year the drainage was all rebuilt, however it didn't get tested last year so if we do have a wet one it should be an improvement on previous years.

[duggyfresh]

Uh-oh........from the BBC monthly forecast.

Monday 20 June 2011 to Sunday 26 June 2011

Wimbledon starts: new weather, please?

There's little sign of a spell of warm, sunny weather to take the nation through one of the premier, sporting events of the summer. Low pressure will again lie close by to the British Isles, with the wettest and windiest spells of weather to be found across the north and west.

Temperatures will not warrant postcards home, falling below par in southern England, south Wales, southwest Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Sunshine amounts will suffer as unseasonable, wetter spells take precedence across southwest Britain and the Midlands.

I so hope this is wrong.

[Fussy Onion]

The sight dries out in 2 days.. Do not despair... Be grateful this has happened 2 weeks early...

Remember 2008 and 2009 both rained loads on Thursday evening but were still dry by Sat morning...

Loads of time and hope left mate - chin up...

This is very true - it can rain a fair bit and still not cause the mudbath that we all so want to avoid.

I am still reasonably optimistic - a 6 or less on the dustbowl to washout scale is perfectly acceptable to me. If it gets worse than this then pack full waterproofs. Wellies, waterproof trousers, jacket and hat. This can turn a miserable festival experience into a bearable one. I won't tell fibs, it may still be a bit of an endurance test but it will be preferable to sitting in an office all day.

[jonf]

Give me some hope Jackone - what are the chances of some high pressure coming in from the Atlantic and bringing some good weather for the festival?

Like the rest here though I'd just be chuffed so long as it doesn't rain!

[duggyfresh]

Yeah, I think we can all write the temperatures off, but that doesn't bother me at all. I just don't want to see any significant amounts of the wet stuff. I've been through about 5 or 6 wet Glastonburys and it does become a struggle after a few days. Showers with sunny spells would be fine by me actually.

The good thing is though, up until yesterday it's been very dry in the South West. The REALLY bad mudbath conditions of 1997 were mainly due to the fact that it had been very wet leading up to the festival. The ground was just waiting to be churned up, and then rain during the festival then just turned that churned up mud into vast lakes of liquid mud. And also if it does rain as said above, the drainage is much improved.

My predictions are the same as JACKONE'S at the moment - it will be a damp festival, but by no means a washout or mudbath. Although I could well be eating my words in 2 weeks time. Or even sooner if the forecasts stabilise over the next few days.

[trickydickie]

Mudwatch Update: Doesn't look too bad to me...

http://twitpic.com/5az41w

[devonhammer]

The good now is that it looks like it could go either way. Until a few days ago, the lows just kept on coming off the Atlantic, but now it looks like they could be pushed further North.

A couple more good runs and I bet we see a 5 or even a 4.

[Summer Sun]

I bet those going to the festival would settle for this set-up

[jonf]

I bet those going to the festival would settle for this set-up

And what are the chances of that set up?

I have to say I don't really understand how high pressure systems do push up low pressure weather systems (and vice-versa). Does anyone care to explain?

[N5THM]

Mudwatch Update: Doesn't look too bad to me...

http://twitpic.com/5az41w

Thing is down there it just doesnt get muddy.....

Until 150,000 people start walking on it, In all the years ive been down there working leading up to it, it can rain all it likes, the fields still stay green, but once the gates open on wed and you have everyone walking on the same bit of ground, it only takes an hour or so to turn the place from fresh green to muddy brown!

[J10]

today's run has been completed as some definite signs of improvement with Pressure looking to ridge from the South west.

Now if the time for me to ask a favour, in the event of moderate rain in the build up to the festival and on the Wednesday, but dry thereafter, does this mean there will be mudbath conditions, or is a little rain OK, as long as it doesn't pour down. Some guidance is appreciated from Glastonbury veterans (young and old).

The Jet Stream is also showing slight signs of edging/pushing north from around Wednesday Thursday next week. As for a washout dry akin to yesterday, the most likely time for that will be this weekend, and even then I don't think it will be as wet as yesterday. Going on current trends especially the ensembles, apart some possible moderate rain on Wednesday, it may well stay mostly dry for the rest of the festival.

[duggyfresh]

Well this year will be my 14th Festival, so I guess I'm a bit of a veteran. It's a tough one to answer, because lots have things have been improved over the years - drainage, concreting the roads etc. But I don't think moderate rain leading up to the festival will be a major factor in causing a mudbath. I think with it being so dry up to now, the rain will just run off the fields and into the drainage system.

It doesn't take much to dry the site out at all. The soil is mainly clay, so water tends to rest on it rather than soak into it. This only becomes a problem if there have been weeks and weeks of rainfall, or there is the factor of hundreds and thousands of people putting pressure on the water, pushing it into the ground and then churning it up as thick, sticky mud. Add to this further rainfall, and you get the lakes of mud some of us are unfortunate enough to be familiar with.

That's my opinion chucked in, others may differ?

[gizmoman]

I agree with Duggyfresh, unless there is a lot of rain in the run up, we should be o.k. I'd be tempted to take todays scenario if it was a guarantee, any rain on the Wednesday should have dried out by Friday and we would have the main 3 days totally dry. In 2005 after the massive thunderstorm and virtual flooding of the site on Friday morning it had dried up pretty well by Sunday and there have been improvements to the drainage since then.

[duggyfresh]

Yeah Gimoman, I was woken up by that thunderstorm - massive is not an understatement. I have NEVER seen rain like that in my life. I heard the next day that they were just about to officially abandon the festival - then the rain stopped and the sun came out. My tent was flooded, but I dried everything out in about 2 hours in the sun. Also, I don't remember it even being that bad by the Saturday either.

That was a freak weather occurrence, and at the most inopportune time to say the least!

[snowingtequila]

Yeah Gimoman, I was woken up by that thunderstorm - massive is not an understatement. I have NEVER seen rain like that in my life. I heard the next day that they were just about to officially abandon the festival - then the rain stopped and the sun came out. My tent was flooded, but I dried everything out in about 2 hours in the sun. Also, I don't remember it even being that bad by the Saturday either.

That was a freak weather occurrence, and at the most inopportune time to say the least!

I was still out as the thunderstorm started it seemed like a light relief after the hot weather. They were talking about closing the festival until the fire brigade sent pumps in and H&S were happy that the risk was less than trying to evacuate 100,000 wasted people. The mud was deep until the Sunday afternoon though since then new drainage has been put in. That was a freak storm on dry earth, 1997 never had such deep mud it was just really wet and cold and had been for weeks. I really don't think we are going to have a mudbath I don't agree with them

[danbailey80]

Now if the time for me to ask a favour, in the event of moderate rain in the build up to the festival and on the Wednesday, but dry thereafter, does this mean there will be mudbath conditions, or is a little rain OK, as long as it doesn't pour down. Some guidance is appreciated from Glastonbury veterans (young and old).

Wednesday onwards -

A little rain is fine (for example a small light 15/ 30 min shower) - would be dry quickly in a few hours or barely make any difference at all...

A heavy downpour, for around an hour or more would take around 24 hours to dry at most..

2008 and 2009 it rained most of Thursday night and it was dry by Saturday morning apart from the odd small patch..

Before Wednesday -

If no one is there apart from builders, it can rain rather a lot and will simply flow away, however if any time from Wednesday morning then it's a different story..

Hope this gives you a clue..

[ema]

The intense flash floods of 2005 were poured on baked ground, so the rain didn't / couldn't soak in to the earth, but rather impersonated a tidal wave, sweeping down from the green fields to babylon taking with it all kinds of unsuspecting folk. i heard stories of people waking up in their moving tents as they were swept down the fields. When i walked the site after the rainfall it was pretty scary - tents were submerged up to the top cross poles, and people were rafting on air beds on vaste pools of water. How there were no casualties was ' a freak of nature'. (incidentally, oxfam refused to help those folk left homeless, clothes-less and without anything , but the left-field tent did a great job and sorted everyone out.

I have worked at the festival for the last 16 years or so, and it always seems to be glorious weather until the gates open to the public. Come Wednesday, some years Thursday, there are either gales, storms or an unatural amount of rainfall! In 2005 it generously waited until Friday before kick off, if i recall correctly.

If there is even drizzle on already saturated ground, or if the rain is heavy and constant for the best part of a day on 'avarage' ground, with that amount of wellies pounding the treadmill, it is akin to farmer Giles and his incredible plow moving fiercely along the drags.

Anyhow, bring on the SunDance Hippies - it never rained at Stonehenge Free Festival!

What is it with the public psyche and the need for mud at a festival these days?

etc

[deadstillstanding]

My 14th also and I agree with everything Duggyfresh and danbailey80 said.

It all comes down to how saturated the ground is when the rain+boots hit it. Not much use for predictions now but from early next week you can have a pretty good idea from the feel of the ground. If it's hard then water runs clean off and you get puddles (or lakes in '05...) lower in the site that never recover. A bit of bounce is fine (and the tent pegs go in easily) - the site will dry after a couple hours sun. If there's any squidge though... unhappy campers.

PS Thanks once again for running these forecasts Jackone, and to the whole net-weather community that post on these threads. It's very much appreciated - and, not least after your early ace call of "scorchio" on last year's well before anyone else - is the only place I've trusted for the last few years