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Jane Louise
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

ESTOFEX has a level 1 over much of England today. Not a complete 100% given those in the box will see something, but a good sign.

A level 1 was issued for UK and western France mainly for some chance of tornadoes.

While some areas will be capped, cloudy, or having only elevated CAPE, some parcels will likely be rooted in the boundary layer and experience quite reasonable vertical shear and helicity values. GFS predicts about 20 m/s 0-6km shear vectors, 200 m²/s² 0-3 km SREH and in the central UK around 12 m/s 0-1 km shear, which combined with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and mixed layer LCLs of 600-800 m hints at a chance of tornadogenesis. Two PV maxima pass over the southern UK with ascending motions, during morning and evening. During the evening pass the shear conditions seems best and there is a significant wind maximum near the dynamic tropopause level. As LCLs and CAPE are low, large hail isn't as likely, but cannot be ruled out given the chance of mesocyclones.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted

Morning all! Did much happen last night in the end?

So today is ment to be the holy grail, has Nick done his forecast yet?

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Lyn-M Community Regular

Lyn-M

Posted
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
Posted

I couldn't get on here last evening to join in the fun as my internet connection was down for several hours.:(

There was a lot of activity to the S&E of here through the early evening, heavy rain here, but no overhead storm. After midnight there was much lightning to the east, but too far away to hear any thunder.

Bit of a gap showing in the radar for a litle while now, may perk up again later.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

I've put a few charts and the explanations of what they show in this thread for today:

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Morning all, was awoken by round 2 around 2:30am...a few rumbles and flashes....Looks like round 3 is fast approaching, elevated cells are popping up in the midlands drifting up from the south...Looks like a busy day, can't complain! :D

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

well just been out to get the essentials and its soooooooooo muggy out there.. overcast/broken dark base skys.. Basically your just waiting for someone to push the switch!.

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tcc Contributor

tcc

Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
Posted

Had some heavy rain around 1am but no thunder or lightning, and again about 5am. So lots of rain which is great, but no storms! Maybe later on today if we're lucky here in the SE

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Author
Posted

any storms in Glos

where abouts....Im in Barcelona

Hi Pat, a distant storm for me last night. Lynxus and Phelpsy had a proper storm. It's looking really good again for the UK again today.Could even be severe storms if diurnal heating gets going. How's the storms in Spain?

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Hi Pat, a distant storm for me last night. Lynxus and Phelpsy had a proper storm. It's looking really good again for the UK again today.Could even be severe storms if diurnal heating gets going. How's the storms in Spain?

cheers Jane...miss ed a few a few days ago.....i think i have some chances today or tomorrow...

but tomorrow on my way back...then London..

good luck..your time is coming :drinks:

i have same level 1....in spain..heading south

Edited by dogs32
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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
Posted

Hi Pat, a distant storm for me last night. Lynxus and Phelpsy had a proper storm. It's looking really good again for the UK again today.Could even be severe storms if diurnal heating gets going. How's the storms in Spain?

Hi jane the sun is out here so there the heading here :D

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Heavy, thundery rain ATM, no lightning at present, one distant rumble, and as with last nights storms/rain, very much elevated in nature

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted

Hi Pat, a distant storm for me last night. Lynxus and Phelpsy had a proper storm. It's looking really good again for the UK again today.Could even be severe storms if diurnal heating gets going. How's the storms in Spain?

Hi, JL :D Looking at the latest radar image, the activity looks very close to your area. I'll be very surprised if you're not among the action fairly soon

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Im looking forward to tonight when the more organised band of rain/storms moves N overnight. At the moment central parts look favoured for the heaviest precip totals with Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex looking to miss out. The GFS has this slightly further E than the NAE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

The big question is how electrified will this be? or will it just be a band of torrential rain with the odd clap of thunder? Either way between midnight and 3am looks very interesting for some areas.

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Author
Posted

cheers Jane...miss ed a few a few days ago.....i think i have some chances today or tomorrow...

but tomorrow on my way back...then London..

good luck..your time is coming :drinks:

i have same level 1....in spain..heading south

Thanks Pat, yes this is so unreal for me after so many non-storms :lol: Good luck to you too for today.:drunk:

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richep Apprentice

richep

Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
Posted

Flying out to Turkey 9 o'clock tonight, so hope for something before then, just to kick the holiday off in style.

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Author
Posted

Hi, JL :D Looking at the latest radar image, the activity looks very close to your area. I'll be very surprised if you're not among the action fairly soon

Thanks Brian I'm keeping my eye out . Camera at the ready again. :D:drunk:

Hi jane the sun is out here so there the heading here :D

Brilliant Stu.:D It's going to be your day today lol :p:winky:

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted (edited)

Does anyone in my area (North West Kent) want to confirm what we had in the early hours. it has definately rained overnight, but I don't think there was a storm.

When I was half asleep last night I thought I heard a distant rumble and I asked the Mr. if he heard it but all i got was him mumbling. I don't know if I dreamed this or not and he doesn't remember as he was gone.

Edited by Lauren
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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted

Heavy rain here for about 10 mins. and guess who was caught in it! Last time I go down the shop for bread rolls!

Are todays storms based on surface tempratures, coz if so its abit cloudy ^^

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