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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Hope this proves a point to newspapers. I never read the newspapers to do with weather... The output over the last 24 hours says it all....

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

FEAR OF WINTER ROADS CHAOS

WIDESPREAD road chaos is forecast this winter despite massive stockpiling of salt. Highway authorities, who had their first real test this week with snow in many parts and temperatures down to -12.9C, admit they can’t keep routes open if the UK is hit by heavy falls. “It doesn’t matter how much grit you throw on the roads if you get a huge amount of snow, they can’t get it all down at the same time,†said Kevin Delaney, of the Institute of Advanced Motorists.

The Highways Agency has 250,000 tons of salt ready to spread, sufficient for 27 days gritting on motorways and trunk roads. A further 425,000 tons is held in reserve. Councils have 1.3 million tons for rural routes, towns and cities but gritters steer clear of housing estates and side roads and up to 75 per cent of the local network is not treated. The AA said: “It is a lottery as to how much of the local network is dealt with. Sometimes motorways are flowing freely but no one can get to them.â€

http://www.express.c...ter-roads-chaos

BRITAIN FACING WHITEOUT

THE ice and snow sweeping Britain will stay with us until February, the Met Office warned yesterday. It is even colder than experts first forecast and will last a lot longer than they had feared. The warning, which boosts the chance of a white Christmas, came as snow hit some northern areas and bitter daytime temperatures hovered just above freezing. An amber alert of severe weather and disruption has been issued with up to an inch of snow predicted in the East, North and Scotland this evening. The Daily Star Sunday revealed on ­October 28, right, that the Met Office was briefing ministers and transport chiefs to prepare for “slightly below average†temperatures from November until the end of January.

But government weathermen have­ ­upgraded their chill alert, dropping the “slightly†and warning “colder than ­average†temperatures are feared ­until the end of February. Fears of a big freeze mounted as ­weathermen said even colder, well below average temperatures over winter were now more likely than first forecast, at a 25% likelihood. Chances of “well above average†temperatures were cut further, to just 10-15%. Forecasters say the risk of snowfall is higher this winter than during last ­winter, the mildest since 2007-08.

Polar plunges are possible as weathermen forecast more high-pressure ­blocking patterns than usual. This ­system caused the –22C Christmas 2010 freeze which paralysed the country. The Cabinet Office, councils and ­highways bosses have been briefed that the risk of snow is worse than a year ago, meaning a higher threat of ­transport disruption. A record near-three million tonne salt stockpile has been amassed. The Met Office stopped making its long-range public forecasts after ­blunders but says its winter forecast is now more accurate than ever. A study showed a new computer programme spots extreme cold patterns missed by the old system.

The weather scientists said their ­winter outlook is based on forecast ­models, past observations and “expert forecaster judgment.†Independent forecaster British ­Weather Services has forecast a colder-than-average winter with “significant†snow, –18C temperatures and transport disruption. The Met Office winter outlook said: “Probabilities favour temperatures below average for December to ­February, with a shift towards colder-than-average values increasing the probability of well below average temperatures. “This winter is more likely than not to be colder than the same period last year and as probabilities favour a colder ­season than last winter, the snowfall risk is enhanced.â€

Met Office forecaster Dave Britton said: “The winter outlook shows a change in probabilities, with an ­increased risk of cold and milder ­temperatures slightly less likely. The ­potential for snow is higher than last year’s mild winter.â€

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/286880/Britain-facing-whiteout/

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

I am gobsmacked and worried that the MetOffice is dumbing down..

How much do we pay the Chief Forecaster??

Here's what he has to say today...........

Chief Forecaster’s View Posted Image

A frost is expected in many places toinght away from eastern coastal districts.

THE SPELLING MISTAKE IS THE MET'S!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I could have sworn it was -15 somewhere in February so -8c is hardly the coldest day of the year

Wrap up warm, it's getting very chilly: Wednesday set to be the coldest day of the year with temperatures dropping to -8C

  • Extreme Russian cold front called 'Beast from the East' will hit tomorrow
  • Temperatures across UK expected to plunge to sub-zero
  • Warnings for motorists and the vulnerable
  • Wednesday could be the coldest day of the year so far

A vicious cold front from the depths of icy Russia will send temperatures across the UK plummeting this week - and Wednesday is set to be the coldest day of the year so far. Temperatures will plunge as low as -8C in some rural areas, bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow, as the freezing 7,000-mile wide 'Beast from the East' sweeps the UK from Monday. The extreme cold is set to bring travel chaos to the nation and the Met Office says Wednesday will bring sub-zero temperatures across the whole of the UK.

Posted Image

The Met Office has issued cold weather alerts for the whole of the UK urging people to ensure those who are vulnerable and elderly are safe and warm. Tony Waters, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, said: 'After a brief milder spell this weekend we are expecting the coldest spell of the winter so far to develop across the UK next week. 'Eastern and southeastern coastal counties can expect to see the most frequent snow showers, but a few will probably spread further inland to central parts as the week goes on. With temperatures falling well below freezing at night, lying snow and the formation of ice could lead to some treacherous conditions and possible disruption to travel.'

It also warned the ice and snow is here to stay until February and in all likelihood will be colder than the same period last year, bringing snow and sleet. A spokesman said: 'On balance, it seems most likely that many areas will receive average amounts of rain. With temperatures generally below average, this would suggest that there is a increased chance of snow.' A top health chief also warned that people with health problems are in serious danger from the biting weather. Last year there were 24,00 deaths, a significant number of elderly among them. Public Health Minister Anna Soubry, said: 'It's really important people look after themselves and be good neighbours to older friends in the cold weather.

'In the winter older people and those with long term conditions are more likely to suffer heart attacks and strokes, respiratory illnesses can get worse, and there is the risk of falls on slippery ground. 'The NHS is well prepared for an increase in winter-related health problems which are typical at this time of year. Preparations are made across the NHS annually and these are now in place in every area of England.' The Beast from the East has already sparked heavy snowfall in France, Croatian and Holland, causing flight cancellations and severe disruption.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2EZ44LUcE

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Just a heads up that Channel 4 are showing a weather documentary entitled "Is our weather getting worse"? scheduled on Tuesday 11th Dec @ 8pm.

Have a feeling that it may end up 'sensationalized' with charletons and scaremongers with little scientific evidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
'7,000-mile wide 'Beast from the East'... Posted Image
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Just a heads up that Channel 4 are showing a weather documentary entitled "Is our weather getting worse"? scheduled on Tuesday 11th Dec @ 8pm.

Have a feeling that it may end up 'sensationalized' with charletons and scaremongers with little scientific evidence.

The very title of the programme sets alarm bells ringing with me. Worse than what exactly? Worse than we'd like it to be? Worse than than 20 years ago? Worse than the 19th century? Worse than the climatological average?

Without completely pre-judging a programme I haven't seen I can forsee footage of recent flooding in various parts of the country, footage of heavy snow in December a couple of years ago, maybe a few shots of ice collapsing into the sea somewhere in the Arctic and, without doubt a re-run of the impressive mobile phone footage of the hail and squally winds during the summer thunderstorms in Leicestershire.

Whether any of this will prove anything at all is another matter. I could trawl through dozens of volumes of historical weather records and come up with something similar somewhere in the country for any given year.

I'll watch the programme in the hope of being proved wrong but I expect something pitched somewhere between the Daily Express and climate change for beginners.

Edited by Terminal Moraine
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The very title of the programme sets alarm bells ringing with me. Worse than what exactly? Worse than we'd like it to be? Worse than than 20 years ago? Worse than the 19th century? Worse than the climatological average?

Without completely pre-judging a programme I haven't seen I can forsee footage of recent flooding in various parts of the country, footage of heavy snow in December a couple of years ago, maybe a few shots of ice collapsing into the sea somewhere in the Arctic and, without doubt a re-run of the impressive mobile phone footage of the hail and squally winds during the summer thunderstorms in Leicestershire.

Whether any of this will prove anything at all is another matter. I could trawl through dozens of volumes of historical weather records and come up with something similar somewhere in the country for any given year.

I'll watch the programme in the hope of being proved wrong but I expect something pitched somewhere between the Daily Express and climate change for beginners.

Great post TM, And agree with you 100%.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

IT’S SKI FUNDAY... AND THERE’S MORE SNOW TO COME

SKIERS took to the slopes of England yesterday as snow brought an unexpected benefit. Many made the most of conditions on hills from Cumbria to Derbyshire as the Met Office warned that the UK is to be hit by an icy blast from Russia. Wednesday is set to be the coldest day of the year – with temperatures expected to fall to -8C (18F), bringing ice and snow, as the 7,000-mile wide “Beast from the East†sweeps the UK.

Tony Waters, Met Office deputy chief forecaster, said: “Eastern and southeastern coastal counties can expect to see frequent snow showers, but a few will spread further inland. “With temperatures falling below freezing, snow and ice could lead to some treacherous conditions.â€

http://www.express.c...re-snow-to-come

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The papers remain adamant of the beast from the east

Snow Sunday in Cumbria: It looks like fun. . . but temperatures are about to plunge as the Beast From The East sweeps the country

  • Extreme Russian cold front called 'Beast from the East' will hit today
  • Temperatures across UK expected to plunge to sub-zero
  • Warnings for motorists and the vulnerable
  • Wednesday could be the coldest day of the year so far

IT could be a remote Alpine landscape. But this was Cumbria at the weekend after northern England was hit by an icy blast and a spectacular covering of snow. Fair-weather hikers who frequent the desolate uplands stayed indoors while skiers, like this one enjoying the solitude of the hills around Alston, revelled in the conditions. Most of the country will face bitterly cold temperatures for much of the week. Counties along the east coast are likely to be hit by sleet and snow over the next 48 hours.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2EdZOq9Kt

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The papers remain adamant of the beast from the east

Another quiet news day then?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to one of the red-tops (I don't know which one, as it was part of an LBC mickey-take) the MetO are forecasting five feet of snow in February!

Where do they find this tripe!

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL

Another load of tripe reported by AOL. I'm not quite sure how they get away with such blatant misinformation. They even quote the Metoffice winter outlook which goes against any forecast they are issuing at the moment.

I'm surprised they don't sue for slander as it lowers public confidence in their forecasts.

Freezing temperatures could last until February

We could be facing more than two months of snow, ice and freezing temperatures as forecasters predict that the winter 'whiteout' could last until the end of February.

The Daily Star reports that temperatures are now even colder than expected and, as a result, government forecasters have revised their predictions: it is now likely to be "colder than average" until the end of February, rather than "slightly colder than average."

The Cabinet Office, councils and highway chiefs have been briefed that the risk of snow is worse than a year ago and a three million tonne salt stockpile has been amassed to prevent travel disruption.

The Met Office winter outlook now says: "Probabilities favour temperatures below average for December to February, with a shift towards colder-than-average values increasing the probability of well below average temperatures."

Met Office forecaster Dave Britton said: "The winter outlook shows a change in probabilities, with an increased risk of cold and milder temperatures slightly less likely. The potential for snow is higher than last year's mild winter."

According to Sky News, next week Britain is facing a weather front known as the 'Beast from the East', which will bring heavy snow and freezing temperatures.

Sky reports that forecasters are predicting heavy snow from Monday, that will hit East Anglia first, before spreading across the South East on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Sky News weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "People should prepare for the cold weather and allow more time to get to work.

"This snow could cause considerable disruption because of the accumulation in populated areas."

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/12/09/freezing-temperatures-could-last-until-february/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cuk%7Cdl10%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D140802

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Beast From East': UK Spared Siberian Blast

It has killed at least six people in Europe, but a brutal weather front from Siberia appears to have missed most of Britain. Britain looks to have been spared heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures from a weather front dubbed the 'Beast from the East' - but some areas will still struggle with freezing conditions. Forecasters had suggested parts of the country would see the mercury plunge as low as -6C, with icy winds from Siberia expected to blow in over the eastern coast.

But while coastal areas in the east remain likely to receive sleet and snow from the 7,000-mile wide weather front, the extreme conditions are no longer expected to be felt far inland. Sky News weather presenter Isobel Lang said: "It was initially thought that freezing east to northeasterly winds would bring a severely cold spell along with the potential for some heavy snowfalls across eastern and southeastern Britain. "However, despite a chilly start to this week with concerns of patchy hill snow, ice and freezing fog, most places should escape with dry and sunny weather."

Daytime temperatures in northern England and Scotland could struggle to top 2C on Wednesday and Thursday with some isolated spots failing to get above -1C. And parts of the South West and South East are being warned of a deluge of rain from the middle of the week onwards, with 17 flood alerts in place for the regions. The ground in these areas is already saturated after last month's higher than average rainfall. Lang added: "Later in the week the weather is set to turn wetter from the south and west with strengthening winds. "Some snow may fall for a time but the general theme will be a wetter and somewhat milder one as we head through the end of the week.

"Whether conditions remain mild or turn colder again from the east is open to question from this coming weekend onwards. "This flip-flopping between air masses is not uncommon at this time of year." Freezing winds, heavy snow and blizzards have caused chaos in parts of Europe over recent days, with four people reported to have died in Croatia and two in Serbia.

http://news.sky.com/...-siberian-blast

Eight Die As Freezing 'Beast' Hits Balkans

Blizzards and freezing temperatures have killed at least eight people in the Balkans, as rescue teams struggle to cope with the conditions. Heavy snowfall blocked roads, closed airports, and shut down public transport across the region. In Serbia's northern province of Vojvodina, 50cm (20ins) of snow fell in just a few hours leaving scores of motorists trapped in their cars. Many had to wait hours before the rescue teams could reach them. Officials said four people died in Croatia and two in Serbia, victims of the weather front dubbed "the Beast from the East" that had been forecast to hit the UK. In Bosnia two people were found dead over the weekend, on many was discovered in his orchard and another next to a road. Doctors told police that in both cases low temperatures caused the victims' hearts to stop.

Croatian authorities said it was the heaviest snowfall in Zagreb in 57 years. Ivica Dacic, who serves as Serbia's prime minister and interior minister, has ordered all police to help with rescue operations. People have been warned to stay indoors. According to Serbian state television, a woman gave birth to a healthy baby in a stranded truck on her way to a hospital, and named her Snezana, or Snow White. As the storms headed east across the Balkans on Sunday, Romania's army was trying to clear roads for the country's elections. The freezing conditions also hit Germany, causing disruption at several airports. The north east of the country was blanketed in several centimetres of snow. One 32-year-old man was rescued in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania after getting lost in a forest overnight in temperatures of -6C (-21F). He managed to contact his brother using his mobile phone and was located.

http://news.sky.com/...st-hits-balkans

Oh my cod, is this for reel? Michael Fish stars in the £1 Fish Man’s video

WEATHERMAN Michael Fish has landed a cameo role in the £1 Fish Man’s video – on the strength of his surname. The retired forecaster – who infamously assured TV viewers the Great Storm of 1987 would miss Britain – appears for a brief boogie with three foxy dancers. He’s seen waving a cod around while wearing a T-shirt adorned with the £1 Fish Man’s price tag for his now-legendary seafood stall deal. Last week we brought you the exclusive first listen to the £1 Fish Man’s song One Pound Fish – a studio-recorded dance version of his market sales pitch.

The fish seller – real name Muhammad Shahid Nazir – became a web sensation earlier this year when footage of him singing his One Pound Fish ditty at his stall in Upton Park, London, surfaced online.

He’s now been snapped up by Warner Music and is making an outside bid for the Christmas No1. And Muhammad must have had a ball shooting the promo that accompanies his annoyingly catchy tune. As well as his new weatherman mate, the £1 Fish Man also recruited a batch of scantily-clad beauties to dance with – and, of course, plenty of deceased sea creatures. Alesha Dixon and US boyband Mindless Behaviour have both recorded versions of the song and Rio Ferdinand has tweeted that he’s a fan. One Pound Fish is out now and can be bought here.

http://www.thesun.co...mans-video.html

Beasting as Arctic blasts in

A BLAST of icy weather dubbed the “Beast from the East†could send temperatures plummeting to -15°C (5°F) this week. The front is heading for the UK from Arctic Russia bringing freezing fog, sleet and heavy snow. Heavy snow flurries are expected across the East of England today with up to an inch likely tomorrow and Wednesday. Some of the country has already had snow but the Beast could be worse than two years ago — the coldest December in more than a century. Councils said they were “planning for the worst†with a record 3million tons of salt. Officials urged Brits to check on their elderly neighbours. The Met Office warned: “Snow and ice could lead to treacherous conditions.â€

http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2EfG3DTcU

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

Radio 2 just reported the above... haha... old news... it just ain't going to happen anymore as far as the UK is concerned.

Edited by djrikki
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BRITAIN FROZEN SOLID AS 'BEAST FROM THE EAST' ROARS IN

BRITAIN is braced for the coldest day of the year so far tomorrow as the 'Beast from the East' tightens its icy grip. Temperatures could sink as low as -16C (3F) with widespread ice, harsh frosts and freezing fog expected to spark travel chaos. Forecasters warned of more heavy snow across the East as the big freeze continues to bring bitter Arctic winds from Siberia and north Europe.They said temperatures will plunge tomorrow night and on Wednesday to their lowest so far this year, possibly beating February’s -15.6C in Holbeach, Lincolnshire. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said fierce frosts, ice and freezing fog will cause days of winter misery.

He said: “Wednesday will be the pivotal point of the winter so far, certainly capable of smashing the coldest temperatures of the year so far. “With the wind chill over the next two days we could certainly see temperatures as low as -20C (-4F) in exposed rural areas. “The big problem though is going to be freezing fog which could hang around raising the risk of road and travel misery, but also poses a risk at the airports.â€

Netweather said an area of cold air will remain wedged over the country over the next few days. Forecaster Paul Michaelwaite said: “The next few days will see cold air in place across the UK, there will be a hard frost for many overnight with some freezing fog patches developing and potentially lingering through daylight hours too.

“There are also some wintry showers around, running into eastern regions and getting a little way inland - most of these are fairly light and well scattered in nature though.†Experts are still predicting a white Christmas with odds at their shortest ever two weeks from the big day. Winter clothing sales at Asda have rocketed in the last week with the supermarket expecting to sell a million onesies by Christmas day. Spokesman Chris Carden said: “With the week ahead set to be the coldest of the year so far, we have stocked up on winter essentials to meet demand and keep the nation warm.†Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 on snowfall on December 25 in London and Birmingham, and 5/2 fin Edinburgh. The Met Office forecasts a “colder than average†winter, with a greater snow risk than last year - and a one in four chance of “well-below-average†temperatures.

http://www.express.c...e-East-roars-in

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

it seems the papers r a bit behind and who is the exbirt that they getting their forecasts from? Also the u.k met arnt going for a below avrage winter as of yesterday, from what i've been reading this morning the ec 32day update confirms this from what mat h was saying.

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I wonder which forecasting organisation will be proved correct about this winter? Metcheck's "Milder and wetter than average" was looking quite doubtful when all the other forecasts were released - they were just about the only ones going against a cold winter. Now with the windy,wet and mild scenario due to establish itself over the uk until the New Year, my money is on them!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Frost To Make Way For Flood Fears

Fears are growing that floods could hit parts of southern England as sub-zero conditions give way to a bout of milder weather across the country. Temperatures are plunging as low as -11C in some areas of the UK, with widespread frost and ice affecting many. But the freezing weather will be replaced by much warmer conditions - which will see torrential rain and gales creating gusts of up to 70mph. Sky News Weather Presenter Isobel Lang said:

"We are seeing some very cold weather across the country, with it getting as cold as -11C in the Highlands of Scotland."Widespread frost will continue and some parts will see some ice on the road, so there could be some problems for motorists. "Wednesday's will be the last of the very cold mornings for a while as we begin to see a real change in the weather." Four flood warnings - the second highest alert available - have been issued by the Environment Agency.

And Lang said that was a figure that could rise. "Temperatures will be up to 10C or 11C in some parts on Friday although there will also be the risk of gales," she said. "And the Met Office and the Environment Agency will be watching very carefully for the amount of rain that falls in the South West. "We are expecting an inch of rain in areas of the south, and possibly double that in higher areas, so that will obviously mean a risk of flooding." The cold conditions come despite Britain being spared the worst of a brutal weather front dubbed the 'Beast from the East'.

http://news.sky.com/...for-flood-fears

Met Checks winter forecast

Winter 2012 : Slightly Milder But Much Wetter than Average

After the cold winter of 2010 and average winter of 2011, the UK looks set to see a milder and wetter than average winter this year as ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific over the coming weeks.

UKMO, GEOS and JMA models suggest a warming trend across the Pacific over the next few months with the Arpege, ECMWF and CFSv2 expecting neutral conditions.

Our forecast is based on NCEP CFSv2 model which indicates temperatures close to or slightly above average for much of Western Europe with precipitation levels markedly higher than we would expect during the Winter months.

November 2012

Drier than average month with high pressure dominating the weather for the first half of the month. Return to more mobile conditions later. Average temperatures for much of UK with exception of Scotland where colder than average temperatures expected. Wetter than average for many areas.

December 2012

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

January 2013

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

February 2013

Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.

March 2013

Slightly wetter than average, especially across Western areas. Average temperatures.

Notable Singularities

25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))

24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))

21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))

Discussion

There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.

Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.

Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.

Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period.

This forecast will not be updated. We will issue an evaluation at the end of Winter 2012/13

http://www.metcheck....ONAL/winter.asp

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

ok forecast how ever they mest up by prodictions of those cold sbels.

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