Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[lewisosd]

Oh dear....3000 J/Kg CAPE over Norwich with LI -8! That will cause some discussion

As we all know, should the plume remain in place, halving those figures (at least) would be appropriate! Pretty colours though

Didn't see signs of a plume for the weekend yesterday...pretty radical change. Signs for a plume were for Monday to Wednesday as opposed to Sunday to Monday...perfect example of the models chopping and changing.

So the East looks set for a promosing end to the weekend. We all know though that them predictions can change. The last update yesterday had Sunday as 71% chance in my area but that has now been degraded to a sorry 0%! Monday has been upgraded to 81% with a 3000J/Kg CAPE and -7 LI. Finally may be able to make some use out of my camera. I am cancelling my band rehearsal just for the mere chance that I will be able to get out chasing!

Edited June 21, 2011 by lewisosd

[DanN]

I think your probably right Harry, quite a warm and moist airmass so must be originating from deep down south somewhere....be nice to see it still on the charts come the weekend.

[Harry]

Will we get the eastern swerve though???

Fingers crossed no! I now live in a west facing apartment so, from there at least, I won't be able to sit and watch Kent clipper action

[DanN]

Haha, I like it. That should be a meteorological term in its own right. 'The eastern swerve'. Copyright GFS.

[Coast]

Oh dear....3000 J/Kg CAPE over Norwich with LI -8!

BANK!!!

I'll even take a downgrade on that (as long as it's only 50%!!!!!) :lol:

[Nick F]

Tantilsing charts from 06z across SE England and E Anglia for next Sunday through Sunday night and Monday - as the warm moist Spanish Plume destabilises as upper trough encroaches from the west, shame it's so far off though and in the downgrade danger zone for a few days yet.

On to today, wouldn't be suprised if we see a few storms soon across NW England looking at the radar.

[paul m]

Only been a few heavy showers up this way at the moment. Hoping something gets going though

[Coast]

I realise this will move East, West, North and South, be upgraded, downgraded and sideways graded. But do you mind if I just indulge us South Easterners a little?

[Nick F]

I realise this will move East, West, North and South, be upgraded, downgraded and sideways graded. But do you mind if I just indulge us South Easterners a little?

Mixed Layer CAPE charts look even better, especially for the overnight Sunday into Monday period.

[Harry]

Mixed Layer CAPE charts look even better, especially for the overnight Sunday into Monday period.

Is MLCAPE charts only available to Extra subscribers Nick?

Edited June 21, 2011 by Harry

[Nick F]

Is MLCAPE charts only available to Extra subscribers Nick?

It would appear so, alternatively the Wetterzentrale CAPE and LI charts appear to suggest similar values to NW's MLCAPE charts rather than the SBCAPE.

[Harry]

Ah lovely cheers Nick

As it stands, charts indicating up to 800-1000 J/Kg CAPE with LI's -2/-3 at midnight Sunday night

[Coast]

As it stands, charts indicating up to 800-1000 J/Kg CAPE with LI's -2/-3 at midnight Sunday night

Look through Monday daytime Harry, mega-charts at the moment!!!!!! Take any of the convective indicators and if it were right now, Maidstone would be Electrical Central!

[jello]

Looks like a lovely shower heading my way across Ireland =] Hope its got a nice present for me

[Mesoscale]

ok ok everyone calm down, its not going to happen so do not get your hopes up.

[jello]

ok ok everyone calm down, its not going to happen so do not get your hopes up.

Awww Don't just take my dream crunch it up and throw it away that's mean

[Staffordshire]

If this pulled of it would be magical, but of course it's gonna be tossed 50miles west thrown up to Newcastle maybe go of into France and have a massive downgrade before we see the true outcome...

[paul m]

Looks like today is a non starter. I suppose there is time yet but looking very unlikely

[Coast]

ok ok everyone calm down, its not going to happen so do not get your hopes up.

Is that a reverse psychology type thing, or do you have some evidence otherwise?

[Staffordshire]

Any chance tommorow anyone think?

[Harry]

Look through Monday daytime Harry, mega-charts at the moment!!!!!! Take any of the convective indicators and if it were right now, Maidstone would be Electrical Central!

Which charts are you looking at Coast?

Perhaps we should put up a temporary joke thread entitled 'porn fest' and just post as many of them as we can find.

I don't think I saw charts like that once last year, even 10 days or so in advance (let alone 5 HA!)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hmm... big rainstorm inching up towards Tyne and Wear, could get exciting soon!

[A.J]

Which charts are you looking at Coast?

Perhaps we should put up a temporary joke thread entitled 'porn fest' and just post as many of them as we can find.

I don't think I saw charts like that once last year, even 10 days or so in advance (let alone 5 HA!)

Of course H, you do realise that the atlantic LP will stall 200 miles further west, the highest instability and plume will advect 200 miles further west so that on Sunday an MCS will form down in Biscay, drift up over the Brest Peninsular, then NNE through the west country and into the midlands (here!) and leave the South East members bone dry and fuming, don't you??......not that I'm stirring anything of course! :ph34r:

:lol:

[peterf]

Hmm... big rainstorm inching up towards Tyne and Wear, could get exciting soon!

do you mean the one headed for Teeside Ian?

edit just played the track back,Sunderland looks good for it.

Edited June 21, 2011 by peterf

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the same one (specifically the western "clump" as the eastern clump is set to miss Tyne and Wear).