Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Staffordshire]

Hows it looking for leeds sunday onwards

Couldn't say at this moment in time we will have a much clearer idea by satarday, the charts are gonna chop and change.

[Raidan]

Not getting excited just yet but been round a few sites and it has been said that SE Wales,Bristol,Bath,up through the Midlands into Lincs has the best chance of a TS tomorrow,Fingers crossed and good luck all.

[AWD]

Estofex don't make much of it tomorrow at all!

http://www.estofex.org/

:wallbash:

Would love to be in Berlin though!!!!

Edited June 21, 2011 by Extreme11

[Chris K]

Met office seems to think the more heavy showers will be further east rather than the bristol area. Still havent managed to get a storm where I live in south gloucestershire Hoping for tomorrow though, may have a chance?

[AWD]

Met office seems to think the more heavy showers will be further east rather than the bristol area. Still havent managed to get a storm where I live in south gloucestershire Hoping for tomorrow though, may have a chance?

I don't think many of us have had a storm around our area! We've been in a black hole this year!

I agree about tomorrow, it looks like a few light showers in the morning before brightening up into a fine and predominelty dry afternoon! The showers developing further east along the trough thats bringing patchy rain to Western areas tonight and early tomorrow!

I'm keeping a close eye on Monday. With all the heat this weekend i hope we get a bang to go with it. But I fear the east is best positioned though! Interesting times nevertheless!

[stormchaser1]

Looking good for Sunday into Monday, also possibility for tomorrow afternoon

[sbiggs]

18Z still shows 1500+J/KG and -5 LI. Fingers crossed!

Waiting for the NW warning for tomorrow...

[Nick F]

Convective / Storm forecast - Issued 21/06/2011 23:30

Forecast Summary Map

Valid: 22/06/2011 06:00 - 23/06/2011 06:00

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Upper low over Nern UK will move slowly east, accompanied by occluded surface low pressure centred off NE England at 12z. An unstable flow across the UK circulates around the low pressure system.

... EIRE, SERN SCOTLAND, NERN/CENTRAL & E ENGLAND …

With fairly steep lapse rates again across the UK on Weds due to proximity of upper low and its cold upper air, diurnal convection is likely to increase in coverage by the afternoon across the above areas where greatest moisture is likely to be present. A few shortwave troughs/fronts rotating around the low will likely serve as the foci for convection. One such trough will pass across Sern/SE England and E Anglia late morning/early afternoon, with a peak in activity around this time here. Another area of focused ascent likely across Midlands and up to NE England in the afternoon along occluded front/trough. Thundestorms are likely to develop where we see insolation and forced ascent - particularly near troughs. Wind shear will be rather weak, so no organised severe weather is expected, though gusty winds and localised flooding will be possible with any storms. 20-30knots of DL shear across SE UK along with a fairly strong upper WSW flow would suggest some storm organisation into clusters with a risk of isolated strong wind gusts mainly, but if winds can back ahead of trough, an isolated weak tornado can't be ruled out ... but given trough will arrive here before peak heating, consider a low likelihood. Storms will die out after dusk.

Issued by: Nick F - Forecaster for Netweather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=47315a674c69889320815dc3d41a8ace

[stormchaser1]

These will probably change during the week

[Raidan]

Lots of talk of where the storms(if any)will be tomorrow,most saying the SE but with Bristol etc getting a mention it's a possibility although not holding my breath,Got a big feeling most of us will be watching the action elsewhere on the radars

[stormchaser1]

cape for tomorrow Wednesday 22nd june

[ZONE 51]

Taking a look at the GFS 18z - data

Wednesday(today) i don't expect much change on the 00z-when its in.

These charts are all for midday 1200hrs

The feature hitting the South/SE/EA could cause some extreme conditions(as in the storm forecast) maybe some quite intense weather, with severe gusts of wind and a small tornado causing some local damage-but these are very rare to happen-conditions need to be right and come together at the right timing-the risk is there.

today thunderstorms/downpours for a large number of areas.

-upper temps very cold

convective cloud cover-look at the areas in green lines

ground wind

convective energy

lifted index-yellow areas indicate unstable air here

wind highest peak in knots-does not show convective gusts

looking through the layers of wind next

925-lowest level

-next level up-middle

high level

these indicate some areas of turbulence-some areas at risk of severe gusts/small tornado

------------------------------------------

jumping ahead next to our potential hot plume

GFS-18z

there would be changes by monday from these but there nice to look at!!

what am i interested in here then apart from the hot air...hmm..must be those storms to import into.... well maybe just could hit the SE.

Edited June 22, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Lt. Dan]

I know it's a long way off but Monday still shows quite a lack of any convective precip on the GFS. No signs of any uplift from what I can see (for home growns) - moisture and instability is there. Any precip that shows up is from storms in France and then it has it's inevitable shift East out to sea! Still time for changes...

[Staffordshire]

I know it's a long way off but Monday still shows quite a lack of any convective precip on the GFS. No signs of any uplift from what I can see (for home growns) - moisture and instability is there. Any precip that shows up is from storms in France and then it has it's inevitable shift East out to sea! Still time for changes...

I say have a shift west, and give us storm starve w middlanders a turn !

A one way ticket to Berlin please.

Edited June 22, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Coast]

Hmmmmm, still looks interesting for Monday at this (long way off) point........

Today though?

SkyWarn say:

Heavy rain or gusty showers for most, chances of isolated thunderstorms for some Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier in the south.

No current watch or warning

ESTOFEX have a half hearted area down the spine of the UK, TORRO nothing and UKASF as Stuart has posted above. 21st OWS have the South and East covered:

Their UKMO interpretation showing the South and East too but with a more intense patch over Surrey Sussex, Kent and Essex!

NOAA's aviation chart has the threat to the West:

GFS KO charts say Essex and Suffolk (ish)

The soaring index is messy but does indicate some of the South East and Scotland:

CAPE moves around the South East from midday 'till about 4.30 pm:

Although not strong indicators, they are in the right places generally (for me!!!)

[gpspete]

I will be in Blakeney, Norfolk on monday , mondays storms hope for some lightning photos storm out to sea would be amazing

nice place for photos

so please no downgrades or positional changes waiting cam batteries on charge now

Edited June 22, 2011 by gpspete

[Eabie]

Netweather gives Coventry a storm chance on Sunday of 43% for 16:00 and 56% for 19:00, and there's also a 56% for 13:00 on Monday. Since this all seems to be focussing on the Southeast though, should I not get my hopes up?

[Nick F]

Netweather gives Coventry a storm chance on Sunday of 43% for 16:00 and 56% for 19:00, and there's also a 56% for 13:00 on Monday. Since this all seems to be focussing on the Southeast though, should I not get my hopes up?

Monday really too far off to be looking at storm risk percentages, the models have still yet to settle on how deep/shallow and how slow/fast the trough will move through from the west early next week and how the trough will interact with the warm moist air advection likely ahead of it.

So there's not too much point IMO in looking at specifically where storms are likely early next week just yet, though fun watching the chopping and changing CAPE and precip charts

[Harry]

Monday really too far off to be looking at storm risk percentages, the models have still yet to settle on how deep/shallow and how slow/fast the trough will move through from the west early next week and how the trough will interact with the warm moist air advection likely ahead of it.

Indeed, and as we see time and time again, the trough timing can be difficult to nail down and is subject to change, on occasions quite significantly, even a day in advance.

[bobbydog]

Netweather gives Coventry a storm chance on Sunday of 43% for 16:00 and 56% for 19:00, and there's also a 56% for 13:00 on Monday. Since this all seems to be focussing on the Southeast though, should I not get my hopes up?

well netweather gives me 0% chance for monday and i'm in the south east! it seems inaccurate given the forecast but going by recent events, probably nearer the truth!!

[Neilsouth]

Not looking as impressive today, alot of cloud currently could do with some sun to start building those towers!

[Harry]

Not looking as impressive today, alot of cloud currently could do with some sun to start building those towers!

Excess cloud shouldn't be a problem if indeed it is a CZ which generates any precip/storms

[Neilsouth]

Good to read!

[sunny scunny]

A heavy shower has just passed through here.Hopefully more to come

[Coast]

I'm kind of liking that area on the North Kent/Essex/Suffolk coast bordering the North Sea after lunch:

A bit of hail mixed in there?