El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3

[Lt. Dan]

I personally wouldn't be too disappointed if nothing develops over the south east now, it's looked pretty well capped for a good few runs with no precip breaking out on the GFS/NMM for us. Although it did pick out the North East quite nicely. It may have been a bit slower with the progression of the cold front, if that's what is now showing on the radar over the south west, but I couldn't see any decent trigger to release all that energy. I think convective temps were around 34c (need to check that) and with that layer of cirrus (from the decaying MCS) we got close but not close enough.

What was everybody's else opinion of any potential trigger and why it may not have happened? Or more importantly, if you can see anything developing later?

I don't want to rule anything out for developing this evening (home grown) but I think it looks more unlikely.

Edited June 27, 2011 by danuk

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Oh joy. The sun is out to increase the temperature yet further. And there was me thinking it would be cool enough to sleep tonight. Doesn't seem to have kicked off convection.

[Wales123098]

The shower over Cardiff at the moment intensified as it hit land according to NWE radar but skies brightening now. No thunder. But the clouds in the distance look menacing and dew point is still very high here.

Edited June 27, 2011 by Wales123098

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think this cold front and how it interacts with the airmass preceding it will be the last throw of the dice for some people.

[craig1uk]

First rain here in Milton Keynes

[03jtrickey]

It's been cloudy in Oxford since late morning, although it's very humid.

The Netweather Extra radar showed a band of rain passing over, but only a few specs have fallen, not even enough to wet the ground. There is fairly thick cloud but whatever is showing on the radar isn't reaching ground level.

I'm wondering whether the more intense stuff off the coast of Wales will continue eastwards across the country and intensify as it does so? Any thoughts on this?

[Hammer]

A few spots of rain here from a rather overcast sky now here in Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire. Feels ideal for a storm later.

[knocker]

Well to be honest Coast, I did warn yesterday, that under milky skies and and strato cirrus storm development is hugely limited. I am an amatuer forecaster, and I for one had my big doubts all along. At the end of the day no amount of model

watching makes up for the human input. Storms rarely arrive on a SW-NE trajetory. More usually imports from france arrive on a near or direct southerly. Something the models seemed to have failed to grasp. You are quite right about a lot of agencies getting it wrong, however in this day and age, a lot of people rely on the MO output, and modify their thoughts accordingly, or so it would seem. Thundery activity, is best guaged near to T+0, by watching the sat/radar output and also the sky !

What is strato cirrus? Regarding imports from France there isn't any across the channel to import regardless of the 700mb SW flow.

[Typhoon Turner]

hmmm beer or no beer

wait a bit and perhaps leap into the car up to the north downs or beer???

extremely humid in orpington, walked about a mile (having been in an airconditioned office all day) and it nearly killed me, no running tonight thats a fact,

i think if there are no storms tonight we may as well all pack up and clear off

still hopeful atm

[peterf]

cracking display here today.the water was very well received by the allotment.suns back out and the roads are steaming.

[paul m]

More pages of doom casting I see happening over & over again. Latest forcast I have just seen on bbc news 24 said highly elevated storms forming during the evening into the early hours from the wash sw towards southampton. The emphasis on his forecast saying they'd be highly elevated with not much rain getting to ground level, but a lot of lightning present. This indicates the trough will start to destabilise the mid levels and moist plume currently in place over the se & ea.

Latest Met rainfall plot shows something appears to be kicking off in a line to the west / nw of london more or less up the M40 / M1 corridors. Sky here is getting very dark as i type & the winds dropped

The general census was for storms to start kicking off this afternoon if im not mistaken. Even the storm chasers are out this afternoon. The only place to have seen some action so far was in the northeast. Storm risk at 10am was 80% now at 56% and still nothing. I know you cannot say Leeds will get a storm at xxxx time but the models have stated it would kick off in the afternoon and me like a lot of people were expecting that

[Alex95]

cracking display here today.the water was very well received by the allotment.suns back out and the roads are steaming.

I'm almost afraid to talk about it on here in case I get lynched by everyone else! The North East looked like it could miss out on storms today, but now we could end up being the only place with a storm!

[paul m]

I'm almost afraid to talk about it on here in case I get lynched by everyone else! The North East looked like it could miss out on storms today, but now we could end up being the only place with a storm!

Still looks like a few strikes going on

[jamesbhx]

I would certainly not write this potential off until Midnight at the earliest. The latest aviation chart for 0000z (1am local time) is below and clearly shows the position of the trough and cold front.

[Alex95]

I would certainly not write this potential off until Midnight at the earliest. The latest aviation chart for 0000z (1am local time) is below and clearly shows the position of the trough and cold front.

Its the trough ahead which could go bang.

[The PIT]

Well only hope is the cold front to the west. If nothing else it'll bring nice fresh air with it.

[Lt. Dan]

I'm almost afraid to talk about it on here in case I get lynched by everyone else! The North East looked like it could miss out on storms today, but now we could end up being the only place with a storm!

GFS/NMM suggested the north east would be the only place from what I could see.

[Glideslope]

Hi folks,

I know Paul S is on the road, could he gives us his thoughts if on WiFi or maybe Nick F..?

cheers,

Steve.

[twister2005]

hi all,

here in glos is very hot and humid had some rain already heres hoping we might see something later, do u think we stand a chance ??

[95 Degrees]

It's just not happening is it guys, I'm usually positive but wheres the thundery explosion, still game on though.

[Alex95]

GFS/NMM suggested the north east would be the only place from what I could see.

It was more Yorkshire down to the Wash.

[pinball wizard]

Just heard a deep rumble, ran outside and it was a low flying apache from wattisham - doh!!!!!!

[Lauren]

Dying. I am actually dying. I've haven't been this sweaty from doing nothing since I was in Thailand in monsoon season.

Nice salad for dinner i think.

[paul m]

Just heard a deep rumble, ran outside and it was a low flying apache from wattisham - doh!!!!!!

At least some action in the skies though :unsure:

[lfcdude]

thinking about it something has to give surely? as its just to bloody humid